NFL Week 17 Christmas

Kyle Kirms
Dec 25, 2025
5 min read

COWBOYS @ COMMANDERS - 1 PM EST

Meaningless NFL game. Dallas looking to become just the 2nd team to finish .500 since the new 17 game schedule. Washington did it in 2022. Dallas also looking to go 5-1 in NFC East games which is pretty on brand. Cowboys are the only team with 5+ pro bowlers eliminated from playoff contention... also on brand.

Culture test for Dallas. We don't see these circumstances often.

So Dallas has not had problems with Washington.

Blindly betting Dak Prescott against Washington throughout his career has been a very lucrative investment.

You'd think Dallas is probably able to move the ball in this one.

Cowboys only scored 17 points last week... but they were moving the ball. Moreso in the 1st half. Couple drives stalled in the 2nd half. Regardless, it was a strong offensive performance as a whole.

That was against the Chargers defense. Washington's been consistently getting scored on for 3 months now.

There are some injury concerns on the Cowboys offense.

Commanders defense in same situation. It doesn't look like we're gonna see Daron Payne.

Dallas had zero problems lighting this defense up back in Week 7.

Dak Prescott was excellent in the game.

Weather's supposed to be fine.

Now... here's something for you if you're looking to bet the Commanders. This makes it look like Washington's been running some man coverage.

Remember... Dan Quinn Jr. took over play-calling in Week 11. If you look at the first 10 games, Washington's defense was terrible.

Now it doesn't look much better since Quinn took over.

But what's the difference? We're seeing a much more conservative gameplan from Washington defensively. They're not running much man coverage at all anymore. They're running a ton of cover 4.

Almost half of Dak Prescott's interceptions this year has come against Cover 4. I'm not suggesting that Washington can stop the Cowboys offense... but I don't think it's crazy that Washington can limit the huge explosive downfield throws.

Now on the other side of the ball, I have no idea what to expect.

Washington's offense is pretty crushed right now. We don't even know who's playing QB. Looks like it's gonna be Josh Johnson. It doesn't look like we're gonna see Tunsil.

So I would imagine we'll see Washington running the ball. For the most part, the Commanders have run the ball pretty consistently all season.

That plays into the strength of the Dallas defense. I know "strength" and "Dallas defense" don't belong in the same sentence... but they've actually been decent against the run.

Where the Cowboys are terrible is in the secondary. This team just can't cover anybody. They also haven't recorded a sack since December 4th.

Look how Justin Herbert had been playing heading into that Dallas game.

How'd he do in Dallas? His first 300 yard game since October 19th.

There's also injury concerns here. Overshown is doubtful. No word on Quinnen Williams.

I bet Washington but got a bad number. The run of terrible betting continues.

LIONS @ VIKINGS - 4:30 PM EST

Lions coming off back to back losses for the first time since 2022. Ready for the crazy part? Detroit was out-rushed 389 to 85 in those two games.

Well this game isn't meaningless. The Lions are playing to keep their season alive. Detroit needs to win out and they need Green Bay to lose out (which actually isn't that crazy). And it's not a meaningless game for Minnesota because they would love to end the Lions' season.

No Vikings made the Pro Bowl? Only 3rd time in franchise history.

This is a rematch from Week 9. Minnesota went into Detroit and beat em.

That was actually the first time ever that Dan Campbell didn't cover the number against Minnesota.

This is a lot different though. The Vikings offense is just decimated. They did not place McCarthy on the IR which means they're hoping to play him in Week 18 against Green Bay.

Now the Vikings offense was ok last week. They were running the ball pretty well.

Brosmer was ok.

That was against the Giants defense. Now Detroit's defense is having their share of problems... but compared to the injured Giants defense right now? Detroit is the 2001 Ravens.

The Lions defense is not ok right now... but this is still a dramatic step up in competition from the Giants. Still... this secondary... indoors... Jefferson and Addison are gonna get open. Can Brosmer get the football to em? Who knows?

Detroit has not played well at all defensively. If there was ever a spot for Max Brosmer to have a good game... it's at home against this injured Lions secondary.

On the other side of the ball, I imagine Detroit's able to score points in this one.

Goff played pretty well against the Vikings back in Week 9.

Which makes sense because Goff's done a great job handling the blitz all season.

Minnesota's missing 2 starters now too.

Detroit's offense is in pretty good shape.

Lions run game has stuttered the last couple games... but Minnesota has had problems stopping the run all year so I would imagine this is a solid spot for the Lions run game to get back on track.

If Jared Goff has run support and is able to work out of play-action... this game's indoors. He should be fine.

Lions -7.5 or over 43.5.

For those of you that like the incetives. Justin Jefferson is 83 yards short of 6 straight 1,000 yard season.

BRONCOS @ CHIEFS - 8:15 PM EST

This game is not meaningless. Denver is in a battle for the 1 seed and a 1st round bye in the playoffs.

This is a rematch from Week 11... which was an awesome football game.

Obviously this is a completely different Chiefs team.

Oladokun was actually alright last week. But that was against Tennessee.

Denver's defense is an entirely different story.

Denver's defense is missing a couple pieces but it shouldn't make a huge difference.

I wouldn't be completely surprised if Andy Reid has something up his sleeve. He does have the complete element of surprise and the Chiefs were able to move the ball in Denver in Week 11.