NFL Week 15 Thursday

FALCONS @ BUCCANEERS - 8:15 PM

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Both teams coming off losses. I'm not sure which is more embarrassing. The Bucs converted just three 3rd down conversions the entire game. They were 5/20 on 3rd and 4th downs combined.

Bucs have now lost 4 of their last 5 (only win was 20-17 over Arizona at home).

Falcons have now lost 7 of their last 8 after starting the season 3-2. Falcons were 1/13 on 3rd downs in that game. That loss to Seattle not only mathematically eliminated Atlanta from the playoffs... but it also clinched the Falcons 8th consecutive season below .500... which is the longest stretch of losing seasons we've seen from Atlanta since the 1980s.

That loss eliminated the Falcons' playoff hopes and put Tampa in a tie with Carolina. Both the Bucs and Panthers play 3 division games outta their last 4. This is gonna be a wild finish.

Baker's had problems with the Falcons since joining this team.

Rematch from Week 1.

So what do we think about Atlanta's offense against Todd Bowles defense? At first glance, you'd think this would be a tough matchup for the Falcons. Atlanta's an offense that wants to run the ball and the Bucs are always rock solid against the run.

But the Falcons offensive line is healthy. Both OGs have been back on the field.

We've seen this team running the ball.

And this Bucs run defense hasn't looked quite the same recently. The Cardinals were running the ball on em... the Saints were even running the ball a little (not really).

Bucs defense dealing with some injuries. That's 2 of their top 3 tacklers!

The Bucs were able to completely take the run away back in Week 1... but the Falcons are running the ball much better recently and the Bucs defense is trending backwards.

I really like the matchup for Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins does one thing really well... he makes quick reads against blitz packages and gets the ball out.

Cousins pieced the Bucs up twice last season. Atlanta won both these games.

Now just because it's a good matchup for Kirk Cousins on paper doesn't mean I'm expecting him to just sling it all over the field here. He really hasn't looked great since Penix went down from injury. By no means am I saying Cousins is about to walk into Tampa and throw for 480 yards again like he did last year... but I do think Atlanta can run the ball in this game... and I do think it's a decent matchup for Cousins. So I wouldn't be surprised if Cousins plays a good game.

On the other side of the ball, we've got an interesting matchup. Based on the year long numbers, the edge would go to Atlanta's defense here. But I believe both of these units might be slightly better than these numbers show.

The Falcons have really sured things up against the run recently since getting Deablo back from injury.

Some injury concerns.

Same for Tampa. Wirfs is expected to play. Otton not expected to play. The WRs are true 50/50s.

The Bucs finally got their run game going. That was when the offensive line got healthy, (Goedeke, Bredeson). Now they lose Bredeson again and Wirfs might not even play... against a Falcons defense that looks strong against the run?

I know the Falcons secondary has kinda gotten exposed recently... and Baker Mayfield, possibly with his WRs back... that's scary for sure.

But Baker's not playing well. Cam Ward has been better.

But let's not forget... the Falcons secondary might be vulnerable but this is still a defense that sends the house. The Falcons are 3rd in the NFL in sack rate this year and they do it by blitzing a lot. Baker Mayfield's been terrible against the blitz this year. And he's got a hobbled offensive line on top of it?

I'm on Atlanta at +6.5. It's getting pretty close now. I originally said I'd make the game 4. So it would still be a lean towards the Falcons at +4.5.