NFL Week 15 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- 8 hours ago
- 18 min read
CARDINALS @ TEXANS - 1 PM
Houston's now won 6 of their last 7... only loss being the game Stroud got hurt.
This is crazy.
We just saw Houston go into Arrowhead against an injured offensive line and dominate. That was in Arrowhead against the Patrick Mahomes... now they're at home against an even more injured offensive line against Jacoby Brissett.
Cardinals offense is gonna be in a serious situation here.
The only path to Arizona moving the ball consistently in this game... is a flat spot.
Jacoby Brissett's strength has been handling the blitz. Houston never blitzes.
Brissett's not gonna have time for anything downfield to develop. Now we've seen him have some success throwing the ball underneath... but against Houston's defense?
Are we expecting the Cardinals to run the ball here? With no offensive line and no RBs?
Houston's defense is dealing with injuries. It doesn't seem so on this graphic... but they actually have a lot of injuries to the depth.
On the other side of the ball, based on the full season numbers, you'd think this is a close matchup but it really isn't.
The Cardinals have the worst defense in the NFL right now. They had that huge win in Dallas on MNF... since then, they can't stop anybody.
If you're looking for a reason to back Arizona's defense... you could take a look at their schedule and think maybe we have to cut this unit a bit of slack.
The Bucs were moving the ball in that game though... so it's a bit thin.
Now Houston's offense has not looked good at all. Stroud coming back didn't seem to change anything. But what do we know about CJ Stroud? He always seems to play better at home in Houston. Both these games were on the road. Not to mention... they were two huge football games.
Houston's offense is pretty much fully healthy right now.
If you're trying to back Arizona, you could say the pass rush is healthy.
Arizona's pass rush hasn't been terrible... Josh Sweat has 11 sacks. We know Stroud has struggled with pressure his whole career.
Arizona also runs a ton of 2H safety looks... Stroud's got some ugly looking splits against 2H.
Do we think Houston can run the ball?
Arizona's been getting steamrolled on the ground but goddamn look at their schedule.
I can't trust Arizona in any way, shape or form. The move was to get Houston at -6.5.
RAIDERS @ EAGLES - 1 PM
The Eagles have lost 3 consecutive football games.
But this is the perfect matchup for Philly to show us that lockdown defense. The Raiders offensive line is terrible. They have the worst rushing attack in the NFL... by far actually.
The offensive line is a mess. I don't think Merideth is even a starter anymore.
Raiders offensive line is still missing starters. They can't generate push. They haven't had 75 yards rushing in a game since Week 5.
If you have a physical offensive line and can slam the ball between the tackles, you can give this Eagles defense problems... and the Eagles are missing Jalen Carter.
But in games where the Eagles defensive line is winning their battles up front, it's really tough to move the ball on this team. We saw what happened last week. That was indoors at SoFi.
Justin Herbert was under a ton of pressure and even when he had clean pockets to throw from, nobody was open. Pretty much the only offensive plays we saw all game were on the ground... Justin Herbert made some plays with his legs. Now we're back home in cold ass windy ass Philly.
Kenny Pickett actually handled himself pretty well last week. It was two drives at the end of the game. Denver was up 14 in the 4th quarter when he came into the game.
The Raiders have played 4 indoor games in a row. They've only played 2 games outdoors in the last 2 1/2 months.
Now on the other side of the ball, obviously we're all concerned with the Eagles offense.
Getting Lane Johnson back would be huge.
He tweeted... if that means anything.
But looks like it's a no-go.
Raiders defense is a bit hobbled also.
I think we can count on the Eagles to move the ball a bit in this game. The Raiders defense has limited big explosive plays... but they've struggled to get off the field. We've seen signs of life from Saquon Barkley. The Raiders best player is Maxx Crosby... but if Lane Johnson plays, the Eagles have two of the best OTs in the NFL to line up on him.
Broncos drives - 14 plays, 9 plays, 10 plays, 14 plays, 19 plays, 6 plays.
Dogwalk of the week. Eagles -10.5.
JETS @ JAGUARS - 1 PM
Vibes are high in Jacksonville. 4 wins in a row... the biggest one being last week over the Colts to grab control of the AFC South.
Things aren't terrible with the Jets right now, despite coming off a blowout loss at home.
So how good is this Jacksonville defense? Because this is starting to get really impressive.
So can we count on the Jets offense to do anything here?
Looks like it's gonna be Brady Cook.
Last week was a disaster for Brady Cook. But you gotta keep in mind... the entire offensive gameplan was tailored to Tyrod Taylor. The Jets were not expecting him to play. The Jets also dropped 5 passes in the game.
Regardless, it's tough to see the Jets getting much going against a strong Jags defense that's completely healthy right now.
Jags don't have film on the Jets offensive gameplan with Brady Cook?
On the other side of the ball, the matchup is pretty close.
We don't know the status of Walker Little. He didn't play in the Colts game. He's practicing but Cole Van Lanen as played really well... wouldn't be surprised if they hold him out and get him ready for the Denver game.
The Jags run game hasn't been good recently. It was efficient at the start of the year and we all labeled the Jags as a good rushing attack. But the truth is, the Jags are winning games recently because of their defense. The run game hasn't really been there.
The Jets may have gotten run on in the last 2 games. That was against Atlanta and Miami... 2 run games that are red hot right now. In the 3 games before that when Quincy Williams came back from injury, the Jets defensive front 7 was playing really well.
Looks like Quincy Williams is gonna play btw. He's practicing. Tony Adams is back. CB Thomas is the one that looks like he's gonna miss this one.
And the thing with last week's game... the Dolphins got off to a wild start. Achane ripped off a big run and Tua connected on a couple big throws. It was 21-0 in the 1st quarter. After that, the Jets defense played pretty well.
Where I don't trust the Jets defense is in the secondary. If the Jets don't record an interception in this game, they will set an NFL record by starting the first 14 games of the season without an INT.
Trevor Lawrence has played well the last couple games.
I'm not gonna let two games erase the fact that Trevor Lawrence has been pretty unreliable as a passer this season.
I think the Jets defense plays well in this one. I'm gonna be open about the fact that idk how the Jets are gonna move the ball. But we're pricing the Jags like the 2023 Ravens now? This is still an offense I don't trust... and this is also a very sleepy scheduling spot.
I bet the Jets in this one. It's looking like a bad bet at the moment.
BROWNS @ BEARS - 1 PM
Wanna know how crazy the NFC is this year? Just a few days ago, the Bears had the best record in the conference. Now, they're in a position where if they lose this game, they most likely aren't even in a playoff position. The Rams are the only team that can clinch a playoff birth this week with a win over Detroit.
Shedeur is playing pretty well. He's definitely holding onto the ball too long and he's not handling pressure well. But when he delivers a throw from a clean pocket, he's been great. Keep in mind... two of these games were in nasty weather.
Now what we need to know when it comes to Cleveland... is the status of the offensive line. This is concerning. Pocic was injured last week against Tennessee and is out for the season. As of Thursday night, none of the 3 questionable OL have practiced this week.
If Cleveland's offensive line is in decent shape, they should be able to give Shedeur some run support to work with in this one.
Now TJ Edwards is back from injury and the Bears did do a much better just against the run earlier in the season when he was healthy.
If Cleveland's unable to run the ball... this might be a really tough spot for Shedeur Sanders. Not that he's playing poorly or anything... but he does tend to put the ball in harm's way.
On the road in cold ass Chicago with a hobbled offensive line. This Bears defense blitzes a lot and they're ballhawkers.
Now what about the other side of the ball though? We've seen this Bears offense just bullying teams. The Bears legitimately have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL right now.
There was criticism that they were running the ball on bad defenses... well they shut everybody up. Look at their last 4 games.
Now you might think "well they can't do that on Cleveland's defense though"... and there's definitely concern there. We do have to take note that this Cleveland defense isn't 100% though. DT Maliek Collins is out for the year. We just saw the Browns play their first game without Collins on the field... it didn't go well.
But it's not just Collins right now. The Browns defense has injury concerns everywhere this week.
Now obviously.. Caleb Williams against the Browns pass rush is a problem. Just like last year, Caleb has a tendency to hold onto the football. And just like last year, his passing splits under pressure are ugly.
This is the reason Caleb Williams looks so much more comfortable this season. Caleb Williams was only sacked 1 time last week in Lambeau.
Looks like Rome Odunze is gonna be back for Chicago which would be big. He leads the Bears in yards and TDs this year.
He was definitely missed last week. Caleb Williams didn't have the best looking stat line. Although let's give him credit... down the stretch he did make some big throws. But for most of the game, he was struggling.
I really think the Bears can score points here at home. I also think we'll see a faster paced game.
I think the way to go here would be over 38.5. I also think the Bears cover.
BILLS @ PATRIOTS - 1 PM
Patriots are playing for an AFC East Championship. If they win this game, they clinch the division... snapping the Bills streak of 5 division championships in a row.
Now in terms of making the playoffs, Buffalo's in good shape whether they win or lose. Even if they lose this game, the teams that could take a playoff spot from them are Indianapolis, Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami.
Now this is not gonna be the easiest revenge for Buffalo to get here. We remember what happened... New England went into Buffalo and got em.
Bills have handled themselves well in revenge games.
Let's not forget that the Patriots have been on a warpath. The biggest home game in Foxborough since 2019.
Now you can definitely question the competition. How many playoff teams has New England seen so far this year? The Patriots are 32nd in strength of schedule. Dead last.
Do we think New England can generate stops in this game?
Well I think it's important that we mention Buffalo was moving the ball pretty fluently on the Patriots back in Week 5. The story of that game is 3 turnovers to 1. The story was not that the Bills offense got shutdown at all.
We've seen the Patriots defense against the run completely fall off a cliff with the injuries.
Now New England is getting Tonga back on the defensive line which helps. But Spillane injured his foot in practice and is listed as questionable. That's the leading tackler.
At first glance, it seems like the Patriots tightened things up in the secondary after getting cooked through the air early in the season. But I gotta ask... what QBs have they seen in this span?
Spencer Brown's back which means the Bills offensive line is fully in-tact... it just seems like Buffalo's gonna put up a big number in this game.
On the other side of the ball, I don't think New England has a strong enough rushing attack to exploit where the Bills are weakest.
They are a bit healthier.
The question is... can New England run the ball in this game? They haven't had much of a rushing attack this year... but Buffalo has really struggled against the run.
There's also injury question marks.
The thing is... how can we question New England's offense? It's one of the most consistent units in the entire NFL this season.
This is such a tough game. I kinda wanna roll with the over cuz I think both offenses will have success... but we are talking about two of the slowest teams in the sport.
I guess I'll say over for this game. There's a flat 49 available.
RAVENS @ BENGALS - 1 PM
Well Baltimore gets a rematch. Obviously, the Bengals won comfortably... probably important to point out that Baltimore was actually moving the ball a lot more fluently than Cincinnati was in that game. The turnover battle was 5 to 1.
Unfortunately for the Ravens, they followed that up with a loss to Pittsburgh which puts them a game back. They still play the Steelers again in Week 18 but Pittsburgh currently has a better division record. So even if they beat the Steelers in Week 18, they won't have the tie breaker. So this is a must win for the Ravens.
This is set to be the coldest game in Baltimore Ravens franchise history.
We need to figure out what we think about the matchup on this side of the ball.
I guess the Bengals defense is terrible again. They did make a few plays in the 3 games previous.
Bengals defense is in decent shape... but I don't think it matters. This defense might just be terrible.
So I guess Baltimore should move the ball in this game. They've been doing a solid job on the ground.
I don't know what I think about Lamar Jackson anymore.
The offensive line is completely healthy.
Lamar should have run support. He should have clean pockets to work with.
The other side of the ball is where the matchup gets interesting.
Cincinnati's offense went off in the snow... but remember, they didn't look that great in Burrow's first game back.
No Tee Higgins.
We already know what Baltimore's gonna do in this game. They're gonna play a lotta man coverage and double team Chase... and without Higgins, the Bengals are pretty limited on weapons to beat the Ravens DBs.
I like Baltimore to play a great defensive game in this one li0ke they did a couple weeks back.
As long as Lamar Jackson doesn't turn the ball over repeatedly again... I think the Ravens win this one. Baltimore -2.5.
CHARGERS @ CHIEFS - 1 PM
So I don't believe the Chiefs would be mathematically eliminated with a loss here. But if they drop to 6-8, it's about time to start having that conversation. KC's playoff chances are estimated to be 12% right now and would drop to less than 1% with a loss here.
The Chargers are still very much alive in the AFC West race. Remember, the Chargers already beat Denver. Denver still plays GB, JAC and KC before playing LAC in Week 18. It's very possible that Week 18 could be for the division.
Kansas City is in desperation mode. They've now lost 4 of their last 5 games and they're only win, they have to come from down double digits in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs are just 1-6 in 1 score games this year which is just the opposite of what we've seen from KC in the past.
Meanwhile things with the Chargers are looking alright. They've won 5 of their last 6. They had that collapse in Jacksonville... but they bounced back with a couple wins and last week was a really gritty one against the Eagles.
Harbaugh was fired up about the Eagles win.
In terms of this division rivalry, it's been controlled by Mahomes... but the Chargers usually play these guys tough. In fact, betting on Herbert to cover against Mahomes has definitely been profitable. The last 4 Chargers Chiefs games have been decided by 1 possession.
Chargers just recently snapped a 7 game losing streak to the Chiefs back in Week 1. There wasn't a ton of defense being played in that game. Chargers looking to sweep the Chiefs for the first time since 2013. It was Alex Smith vs Phil Rivers in those matchups.
In terms of this particular matchup, the story is really the offensive line on both sides. The Chargers offense hasn't been terrible... but it's really just "they'll go as far as the offensive line can take them".
The Chargers offensive line finally had a good game. They put Salyer at LT and Pipkins back in the starting lineup. They were pumped about it. They gave the offensive line the game ball against the Raiders and it looked like they finally found a combination they were confident in. Pipkins got injured 20 snaps into the game. It doesn't look like Pipkins is gonna play in this one which means Trevor Penning or Bobby Hart will most likely be getting the start at RT.
Which means both starting OTs that played in that Week 1 win over Kansas City will not be playing in this one.
Chiefs defense is dealing with a couple of injuries themselves. Based on what I read, I doubt McDuffie is gonna play in this game. Nick Bolton missed Thursday's practice with an illness so I would imagine he's alright though.
The question is... will Justin Herbert have enough time in the pocket to exploit a missing piece of the secondary. He was pressured on 26 of his 41 dropbacks last week against the Eagles. I would imagine the Chiefs will do the same thing.
The Chiefs defense has been rock solid. There was a rough game on the world against Dallas but everyone gets lit up in that building. They shouldn't have problems bullying the Chargers offensive line in this one.
On the other side of the ball... do we trust the Chiefs to score points here against the Chargers defense? Since getting healthy, the Chargers defense has been really strong. The criticism would be the strength of schedule during that span.
Just like the Chargers, the concern for the Chiefs offense right now is the offensive line. Not only are they missing 3 starters. But Ethan Driskell and Wanya Morris are both out as well. Those are 2 backups that would be starting in place of the injured pieces. The Chiefs have their 3rd and 5th OTs starting in this game and one of them is an undrafted rookie making his first start. They've got Mike Caliendo starting at RG who's technically the 4th OG on the depth chart.
We just saw this offensive line get dominated last week.
The Chargers are missing a S but in terms of the front 7, they're completely healthy. Chargers defensive line should dominate this game just like they dominated the Eagles game.
The Eagles ripped off a couple big plays but in terms of consistently moving the chains, it wasn't a great offensive performance last week.
Mahomes is great against the blitz... but just like Houston, the Chargers are able to generate pressure without blitzing.
I really don't know how the Chargers offense moves the ball in this game with that offensive line... but I also dk how the Chiefs move the ball. So I guess it would be Chargers +6 here.
COMMANDERS @ GIANTS - 1 PM
The Giants had dominated this rivalry for years but that seems to be over.
Wasn't a strong showing for Washington's offense last week on the road in Minnesota.
But can we cut Washington's offense a little bit of slack?
Despite the injuries... despite the wild schedule... this offense still has solid numbers on the year.
No Jayden Daniels in this one.
Is Washington's offense better with Mariota?
There should be run support in this one considering the Giants can't stop anybody on the ground.
Giants are also dealing with injuries. Dexter Lawrence musta got injured in practice.
On the other side, I think we'll see some points scored right back by the Giants.
Giants offense is completely healthy. The offensive line's played well.
Washington's defense has some injuries. The secondary is a mess.
The Giants offense hasn't been bad at all... and the Washington defense is not good.
The weather makes this one interesting... but I think both offenses can move the ball in this game.
We should see a pretty fast paced football game. I think we'll see the ball moving.
I went snowver. 46.5.
COLTS @ SEAHAWKS - 4 PM
So this is real. It's not a publicity stunt.
On paper, this should be one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL against one of the most efficient defenses in the NFL.
The last 3 games... the Colts have not exactly looked like one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.
Remember, this Seahawks defense is fully healthy now.
I really don't know what to expect on the other side of the ball either. Seattle's offense hasn't looked as good recently and the Colts defense is trending in the right direction.
Sam Darnold hasn't looked quite as sharp in the 2nd half of this season.
The Colts have been strong against the run, even without Buckner.
The problem is... they just don't generate enough pressure to really give me faith they can slow Seattle's passing attack down.
And with the injuries, it's tough to see a path to the Colts keeping Seattle out of the endzone.
I have no idea what to do in this one. I kinda wanna take an over. This one opened at 46.5 and it's been bet all the way down to 41.5. Seattle's probably gonna connect on some big throws.
PACKERS @ BRONCOS - 4 PM
10 in a row.
Broncos have been perfect in Mile High.
Green Bay's offense seems to be back on track.
And Denver's defense is great... but it hasn't looked THAT great the past few games.
I'm not sure if I trust Green Bay to run the ball in this one. This is kind of a wake-up call for the Packers. They've been playing most of the season against bad run defenses.
So even though this looks like a close battle on the ground... I think Denver is able to keep Green Bay from doing much on the ground.
DJ Jones is also back.
Green Bay might really struggle to generate push in this game. But in pass protection, I think they're able to give Jordan Love some time.
The big question is... who's gonna win the battle on the LOS? Jordan Love does not perform well under pressure. But when he has a clean pocket to throw from, he's almost unstoppable.
I'm not sure if I trust Denver to hold all those Packers WRs in man coverage. Weather's supposed to be perfect... mid 50's with no wind.
Green Bay might just have too many WRs to play man coverage against.
Do we trust Denver to move the ball?
Ben Powers is not coming back for this game.
Running the ball on Green Bay is not impossible at all. We've seen several teams run the ball on this defense.
Bo Nix has been ok... he's completing passes at a high percentage but we're not really seeing much of a dynamic passing attack.
Denver's offensive line is good enough to put some points up.
Payton doing a little rope-a-dope.
I was originally leaning over... but I think now that I can basically get GB ML at -110, it's gonna be the Packers for me.
PANTHERS @ SAINTS - 4 PM
I'm not really sure the division implications here.
Saints looking to play spoiler again.
Bryce Young has struggled against the Saints... and he's never won a football game in the Superdome before.
Including the game earlier this year in Carolina.
Panthers offense is in great shape.
Saints defense is in pretty good shape as well and they might even be getting Justin Reid back.
The problem with Carolina's offense is they're so inconsistent.
I'm not sure if they're able to run the ball here against the Saints defense.
Saints don't generate much pressure. So Bryce Young should have clean pockets to work with... but they blitz a lot and he's had problems against the blitz this year.
Now what about the other side of the ball?
Saints offense is in good shape with Fuaga back.
Just like the Saints, Carolina struggles to generate pressure. Tyler Shough should be a in position to make some plays.
We saw it already when Shough broke the Saints franchise record for passing yards in a game as a rookie.
Now I don't think the Saints will be able to run the ball in this game... and you might think "well Kyle what do you mean? The Panthers run defense has fallen off.”
The reason I’m not sure if I trust the run to be there... is this Panthers defense is in much better shape than it has been the past few weeks.
I really dk. I’d make this game about a pick... so I’d be down to bet the Saints at a flat 3 but it doesn’t look like we’re gonna get there.
LIONS @ RAMS - 4 PM
We’ve seen Dan Campbell play these tough road games differently. Running the ball... slowing the game down... killing the clock.
I know the Rams have a great run defense.
The Lions offense is in better shape than it was a couple weeks ago.
And the Rams have been great against the run... but seriously, when’s the last time they saw a great rushing attack?
I doubt we’re gonna see Jared Goff taking a ton of 7 step drops unless it’s out of play-action.
Now on the other side, obviously the Lions defense is in for quite a matchup here.
The Lions pass rush hasn’t been great. Stafford from a clean pocket is dangerous.
The Lions are gonna try to run man coverage in SoFi against this offense? It’s a tough look.
Oh yeah... and their secondary is crushed.
So why am I on the under? Well I’m not expecting the Lions to make a ton of stops here. Dallas scored 30 points on Detroit last week... I think the Rams can score 30 in this one as well. But I like the Lions to come out with a much different gameplan offensively. Run the ball... keep Stafford off the field... kill the clock.
I’m on the under at 55.5.
TITANS @ 49ERS - 4 PM
Let's not let one crazy weather game in Cleveland against an elite defense make us forget that San Francisco's offense looked all the way back for the month leading up to that game.
CMC is gonna play from what I’m reading.
The run game's coming around... Shanahan's schemed some WRs open. It's starting to resemble the offense that went to the Super Bowl in 2023.
The Titans defensive front 7 isn't bad... but the secondary can't seem to cover anybody. And they're going into San Francisco in nice weather to play the 49ers offense, who's had two weeks to prepare.
Look specifically at their last 2 games.
The Titans secondary just isn’t very good right now. They just don’t have the corners.
On the other side of the ball, I think we can count on Tennessee to score points in this game.
Little worried about the offensive line.
Cam Ward's been through the absolute gauntlet.
If you rewind back to the last time Cam Ward didn't see a top 10 defense, he was showing signs of improvement.
The 49ers defense has played an easy schedule recently and they still can't stop the run or get off the field.
The 49ers defense is not in great shape.
This schedule.
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