NFL Week 14 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- 14 minutes ago
- 14 min read
COMMANDERS @ VIKINGS - 1 PM
So Jayden Daniels is back. This is the first time Daniels will be on the field with the top 3 WRs since Week 2.
There's this perception that Washington has a bad offense. They're a borderline top 10 offense this year in terms of efficiency.
I think a lot of it comes from those two primetime games. Two games where everyone watched Washington and they got blown out both times.
If you look at this team's recent games, they are moving the football. That Dolphins Commanders 16-13 final score is very misleading... both those offenses were consistently moving the ball all game.
Now we know Minnesota's blitz packages and pass rush is something we have to worry about. But the Commanders QBs are Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota. This is why I placed this bet without even knowing who was playing QB.
Now it looks like it's gonna be Jayden Daniels at QB... same story. One of Jayden Daniels greatest strengths in his young career has been how well he handles the blitz and pressure.
Minnesota's defense is excellent at generating pressure and creating negative plays. But in terms of getting off the field, we've seen teams sustain some drives against the Vikings. They haven't looked great against the run.
They've been slightly susceptible to the run. Washington's offensive line is completely healthy. Their weapons are healthy. They just handled themselves pretty well outdoors against Denver last week. Now they're indoors. I like Washington to score in this game.
Washington's offensive line is completely healthy. Their weapons are healthy. They just handled themselves pretty well outdoors against Denver last week. Now they're indoors. I like Washington to score in this game. Commanders did just lose their QB coach, Pritchard. He actually just got the Stanford job.
On the other side of the ball, this is the ultimate buy low on Minnesota's offense.
This is the complete opposite of their last two games. Outdoors in Lambeau and outdoors in Seattle. No run support in either game.
Now they're at home, indoors... against a Washington defense that's gotten run on pretty consistently all year.
Darrisaw should be back, it looks like Ryan Kelly should be back. Donovan Jackson could miss another game but there's a chance all 3 of those guys are playing in this one.
Washington might be without Bobby Wagner.
There's a perception that the Commanders defense looks way better since Dan Quinn took over the playcalling. It looks a little better but it's still not good.
Minnesota's been running the ball. They had to abandon the run the last 2 games because they were down on the scoreboard but they still averaged 4.6 YPC in those two games. JJ McCarthy goes from trying to throw the ball, in Lambeau, down double digits against the Packers edge rush... to a game indoors, where they'll be running the ball and he can work out of play-action. Also, the Commanders secondary has struggled all year. They're gonna try to play man coverage against the Vikings WRs? Washington's given up huge plays through the air all season.
Neither of these teams run a particularly slow pace... we should see a decent pace here. I'm on the over at 41.5.
The last two games are getting us a discount here. CHI @ MIN in Week 11 was 48.0. BAL @ MIN in Week 10 was 49.0. PHI @ MIN in Week 7 was 43.5. The Eagles? The slowest team in the NFL that does nothing but run the ball had a higher total than Washington?
I'm on over 41.5... I think the total should be 44.5... so it might be unplayable now.
DOLPHINS @ JETS - 1 PM
Miami's rolling.
This Dolphins team is still alive in this. 10-7 could realistically get into the playoffs in the AFC. That's probably not gonna cut it in the NFC but there's room for teams to squeeze in on this side.
There's been two major turnarounds for Miami. One is the defense... the other is the run game. We're seeing a downhill physical run game from the Dolphins... not what we've seen from McDaniel in the past but it's working.
It actually seems to be improving too... although we do have to consider that neither the Bills or the Commanders are capable of stopping anybody on the ground. Achane is now 4th in the NFL in rush yards with over 1000.
The thing is... the defense may be playing well.... the run game's working. But the passing attack hasn't been there. Tua hasn't been efficient at all recently.
And this game's gonna be outdoors in the cold ass Meadowlands. His one win though? It was against the Jets.
We can't sleep on this Jets team right now though.
And this is a Jets team that's playing some football right now. Jets have been cover machines.
It hasn't looked pretty... but ever since Quincy Williams came back, the Jets defense has been improved. Tony Adams got injured in the Atlanta game and is questionable.
Miami's offense is also healthier though. Austin Jackson and Darren Waller are both back.
Miami did struggle to run the ball on the Jets back in Week 4 but they got the win cuz Tua played well. This Dolphins team is different though.
Based on what we just saw the Falcons do, you'd think Miami can run the ball in this game. They've been running the ball pretty consistently for a couple months now. But the Jets did completely shut down the Ravens in Baltimore.
On the other side of the ball, this might be a tough matchup for the Jets.
The turn-around we've seen from this Dolphins defense is wild.
And specifically against the run? That could be a problem for the Jets offense.
And if the Jets can't run the ball... I'm not sure how much offense we can expect here. Tyrod Taylor was named the starter 2 games ago and he's been ok... but that's about his best fastball.
The way these two teams are playing right now.... it would have to be an under at 41.5. I lean Miami.
TITANS @ BROWNS - 1 PM
Cam Ward was progressing a bit... he wasn't good but he was slowly getting better... well that's not what we saw last week. Titans couldn't do anything.
Jacksonville's defense is playing lights out right now... but it's not like things are getting easier for Tennessee here. They're going to Cleveland.
We know how tough it is to move the football on the Browns defense in Cleveland... especially this time of year.
This is a Browns defense that just took a hit though... Maliek Collins has out for the season.
Titans are missing Cushenberry though.
It's difficult to imagine Cam Ward being very effective against this pass rush.
And you add in the weather situation? Cam Ward did play at Washington State for a couple years before transfering to Miami so it's not like he's never played in cold weather before... but against this defense, with no run support? I seriously doubt we're gonna see a ton of offense from Tennessee in this game.
On the other side of the ball though... this is where the Titans can really put up a fight. Cleveland's offense is not good.
This offensive line is crushed. We're talking about Shedeur Sanders in the cold nasty weather... where he hasn't played well at all. His only decent game was indoors in Las Vegas. With a smoked offensive line.
And the Titans defensive front is healthy. Where the Titans are weak is in coverage. In this weather... with Shedeur Sanders... I'm not sure the Browns are able to exploit where the Titans are weak defensively.
Are they gonna try to run the ball... with a busted offensive line?
Keep in mind... we just saw the Browns play an ELITE defensive game at home and they still lost 26-8.see
Neither offense is gonna have any success in this game. It's gonna come down to which QB can protect the football... and I'm not sure if I trust either to do that. I took Titans +4.5.
STEELERS @ RAVENS - 1 PM
Great rivalry.
Lamar Jackson has had his problems with Pittsburgh.
This has also been a dead under rivalry.
And this particular game is a big one.
So do we think Pittsburgh can move the ball in this game?
Steelers are still without their LT.
This Steelers offense is really struggling to put points up. They're moving the chains here and there but there's a lack of explosive plays.
Remember Baltimore's defense has really turned things around after an ugly start.
Baltimore's defense is good to go in terms of playmakers.
Now we know the Ravens defense has really struggled to generate pressure... so Rodgers will have some space to work with in this game... but I'm not sure how much that worries me if I'm Baltimore. The Ravens secondary and LBs should win their battles against the Steelers skill positions.
I really just don't trust this Pittsburgh offense right now.
The question is on the other side of the ball... what do we even think of this matchup?
Lamar Jackson is not playing well.
Now one thing Baltimore has been doing is running the ball.
And idk what happened with Pittsburgh's defense. They were doing a decent job against the run earlier in the season. They were able to keep Jonathan Taylor from beating em... but ever since that Colts game, they've been really struggling to stop the run.
And we've got injuries.
And the Ravens offense is in great shape.
Now we know Lamar has struggled against this pass rush over the course of his career... and he's not playing well. So I would imagine we'll see a heavy dose of Derrick Henry in this one.
It's hard to argue with an under but you coulda got a 47.5 early in the week so I wouldn't bet it now. Ravens -5.5.
SEAHAWKS @ FALCONS - 1 PM
The Falcons may have lost last week... but the Jets are playing better football than people give em credit for... and also, Atlanta was moving the ball a lot more fluently than the Jets were.
AAs far as this matchup against Seattle... I'm not really sure what I think about the Falcons defense right now.
So I can't tell if I like this matchup for Sam Darnold.
We've seen Darnold struggle against these teams that generate a ton of pressure. The Falcons have 25 sacks in their last 5 games. Sam Darnold's been sacked 3 or more times in 3 straight games.
But I still think Darnold can play well here. We're indoors... and we've seen this Falcons secondary get exposed. The last two weeks it's looked good against Tyrod Taylor and Tyler Shough... in the previous 4 games, the Falcons were getting thrown on when they were actually seeing QBs.
Should be plenty of big play opportunities for Darnold in this one against the 1H safety looks.
Is the Falcons run defense good now?
Remember this Falcons defense is healthier.
Seattle's offense is missing a couple starters.
On the other side of the ball, what are we expecting Atlanta to do offensively here?
Looks like Jarran Reed and Julian Love are both returning for Seattle in this one. I don't believe Drake London is returning. FIRST TIME ALL SEASON.
The only strength of Kirk Cousins game so far this year has been making quick reads against the blitz. Seattle doesn't blitz much... they generate pressure with just their front 4.
There's also no Drake London in this game.
It does seem like Atlanta finally figured things out on the ground. They've been running the ball well recently.
Are we expecting them to run the ball on Seattle's defense? Minnesota's been running the ball recently as well... they couldn't run it on the Seahawks.
But this game is in Atlanta... ATL offensive line is healthy. Kirk Cousins can still make solid reads against zone coverage, which is what Seattle does. I suppose there's a path.
If I was forced to bet this game, I'd probably take the under but I really dk. I'll say Seattle -6.5 or under.
COLTS @ JAGUARS - 1 PM
Colts held to under 20 points for the first time all season.
Colts really want this one. The last time the Colts beat the Jags in Jacksonville, Andrew Luck threw 370 yards and 4 TDs.
How crazy is this? The Colts entered the month of November with the best record in the AFC. If the Colts lose this game, they could be in 3rd place in the AFC South.
Turnovers have gotta be a focal point for the Colts. The Jags are 3rd in the NFL in takeaways.
So are we concerned here if we're Colts fans?
We've now seen Jonathan Taylor neutralized in 3 of their last 4 games.
And if you're thinking "oh well Kyle, those are really good defenses"... well what are we considering the Jags to be? Obviously they're not on Houston's level but the Jags have been a borderline top 5 run defense this year and the pass rush is even heating up.
They might even be getting Travon Walker back. S Eric Murray might be coming back. He hasn't played since 10/19. The Jags lead the NFL allowed just 82.4 rushing YPG.
The criticism of Jacksonville's run defense numbers would be the competition.
I do think the Jags secondary is vulnerable but first, how healthy is Daniel Jones? Second, what about the weather?
I don't think enough people are talking about how strong Jacksonville looks defensively right now. They've allowed 649 yards combined in their last 3 football games. This is one of the biggest home games this late in the season we're seen in this building in a while.
Where I'd be worried for the Jags is on the other side of the ball.
The Colts had been struggling against the run earlier in the season... and then DeForest Buckner gets injured and the first game, Atlanta runs the ball on em. So at that point, I was like alright this Colts run defense can't be trusted right now... but they've actually played great defense against the run in the two games since then.
The Jags may have great looking rushing numbers on the year... but it hasn't been quite as efficient recently. What's the offensive line situation?
Jags offensive line takes a hit.
Without Sauce Gardner and an unreliable pass rush, I'd say maybe the Colts can be a bit vulnerable to the pass right now. But do we trust Trevor Lawrence?
Colts pass rush has been inconsistent. They did get some pressure on Stroud last week but as a whole, it's been unreliable. Do we think Trevor Lawrence can exploit that?
You add in the fact that it's supposed to rain? Trevor Lawrence doesn't have very efficient numbers throwing short passes. Jacksonville's gonna be looking to run the ball in this game and this Colts run defense has made me a believer.
I think we'll see alotta running the football in this game. The clock should be continuously rolling.
UNDER 48.5
SAINTS @ BUCCANEERS - 1 PM
Bucs can't afford to play around here and they wouldn't anyway. They absolutely hate the Saints. Saints worst start since 1980.
I think it's safe to say the Saints have the worst offense in the NFL.
Remember, we already saw Tyler Shough get a shot on this Bucs defense. It did not go well. Now this was his first career start. But it was also at home... now they're going into Tampa against a Bucs team that needs a win here.
On the road in Tampa in what's supposed to be a rainy day... I can't picture the Saints offense doing much of anything here.
And we're talking about a hobbled offensive line. No Kamara... possibly no Olave.
Bucs defense is in great shape.
Bowles is just gonna be sending the house after Shough. I don't like him to do much anyway... and if it's raining, this will be an extremely difficult matchup for the Saints offense.
The Saints haven't scored 20 points in a football game since Week 5 and they've only hit 20+ on the scoreboard twice all season.
But on the other side of the ball, at what point do we admit Tampa Bay doesn't have a good offense?
The Bucs run game does seem to be coming around which is huge... but this Saints defense has been pretty tough against the run. The Bucs couldn't run the ball at all in Week 8.
Saints are missing S Reid.
Bucs are way healthier than they have been.
And as far as Baker Mayfield goes, how much do we trust him right now? He's clearly not 100%. His passing numbers just flat-out aren't efficient.
The Saints pass rush isn't great... but what they do a decent amount of is blitzing. Baker Mayfield's really struggled against the blitz this year.
This Bucs offense couldn't do anything last time they saw New Orleans. Turnovers gave them points. That was indoors in the Superdome.
I'm on the under here. I bet it multiple times at 43.5, 43 and 42.5. I also don't hate the Saints. Bucs are 5-0 in games decided by 3 points or fewer.
BENGALS @ BILLS - 1 PM
So obviously... Joe Burrow returns and the Bengals pick up a huge road win to keep their season alive.
But I think it's important to point out that the Bengals offense didn't look all that great in the game.
We've got an interesting matchup here. They're going into Buffalo to play a Bills defense that has had problems stopping the run all year. Cincinnati has run the ball pretty efficiently.
We've been seeing Cincinnati consistently run the ball too. This isn't some flash in a pan.
And this is a Buffalo defense that's dealing with injuries.
This is the healthiest the Bengals offense has been pretty much all year.
Now I don't necessarily love the game for Burrow. He didn't look excellent throwing the ball last week and Buffalo's defense may be vulnerable to the run... but they don't really get beat through the air like that.
Also the weather is a concern.
On the other side of the ball, what do we think of Cincinnati's defense right now?
They're still not a good defense... but they're making plays.
Look specifically at their numbers against the run.
Buffalo is definitely getting 1 OT back... possibly both.
I'm on Cincinnati +6.5. I don't hate an under at 53.5.
BEARS @ PACKERS - 4 PM
Both these teams coming off statement wins. Bears extend winning streak to 5 and have now won 9 of the last 10. Packers go into Ford Field and complete the season sweep over the Lions.
The Bears have been a goldmine.
But they're heading to a building they haven't had much success in.
The Bears have officially moved into the top 5 in terms of rushing efficiency. So do we trust Green Bay to stop this run game?
I'm not 100% sure what I think about this Green Bay run defense. They did a great job on Thanksgiving... but in the handful of games before that, they were getting run on a bit.
Keep in mind, the Packers just took a huge loss on the defensive line.
I still think we can count on the Bears to run the ball in this game. It's one thing when they were running on WAS, CIN, NYG... but look at the last 3 games.
Now in terms of Caleb Williams throwing the ball, this is where I'm a little less confident. There's no Rome Odunze which definitely hurts.
We did just see Jared Goff have a successful game throwing the ball on Green Bay and there were significant players missing from the Lions offense. That was indoors though... not outside in cold ass Lambeau. Now it's actually supposed to be a nice day... but I trust the Packers defense more at home in that environment.
Do I think Caleb Williams has a monster day? No... but he's been much better handling pressure this year. He's not taking as many dumb sacks. He protects the football.
Now on the other side of the ball... this is where we really need to have a discussion. In my opinion, we have no idea how good or bad this Bears defense is right now.
The Bears are way healthier on this side of the ball than they've been recently. The DBs came back last week... and the LBs come back this week.
The Bears run defense splits with and without TJ Edwards on the field are pretty wild.
Does that mean they can stop Green Bay on the ground? I'd have to say probably not.
In addition to trying to stop the run, they gotta worry about Jordan Love. The Bears do not have a reliable pass rush and Jordan Love is one of the best QBs in the NFL throwing from a clean pocket.
The Packers might also be getting Jayden Reed back.
It should be a good matchup for the Packers offense but I'm not completely convinced they just go off. Do we trust this offense in Lambeau right now?
I think the way to go here is Chicago. This team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10. The market keeps under-pricing em. Green Bay's just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 at home. They lost two of those games outright. Bears +7.
TEXANS @ CHIEFS - 8 PM
My first thought when I looked at this game was... ok Chiefs back in Arrowhead... you play em.
But how can we trust Kansas City to consistently move the ball on the Texans defense missing 3 starters on the offensive line?
This is the best defense in the NFL... probably the best defensive line in the NFL.
One of Mahomes best splits this year has been making reads against the blitz... Houston doesn't blitz.
I normally don't trust Houston on the road and I really don't trust the offense to do much... but maybe it's time we start showing Houston some respect. This team is winning football games.
Comments