NFL Week 13 Thursday
- Kyle Kirms
- 1 day ago
- 5 min read
PACKERS @ LIONS - 1 PM
The streak comes to an end. It's now 13-1.
Obviously, we've got a revenge game for Detroit.
This game was really the tail of two halves. Packers got out to a big lead, then the Lions defense actually locked em down in the 2nd half... but the offense couldn't get it going.
Remember, Green Bay wasn't able to run the ball much in that game outside of the first drive.
Green Bay might really struggle to run the ball in this game just like they did in Week 1. C Elgton Jenkins is gonna miss another game. Lions should be getting Marcus Davenport back as well. It's gonna be tough for Green Bay to generate push in this game.
Where the Lions defense is gonna be in trouble... is right here. This is a really streaky pass rush and Jordan Love has been dominant from a clean pocket. S Kerby Joseph is most likely gonna miss another game but it looks like CB Terrion Arnold might be back and CB DJ Reed came bac last week as well.
So there should be opportunities for Jordan Love to make throws in this game. We gotta point out that Jordan Love hasn't been very good though. Ever since Tucker Kraft got injured, the Packers passing attack hasn't looked nearly the same. He's holding onto the football too long, he's being pressure at a very high rate.
Jameis Winston had a big game throwing the ball last week, but I'm not gonna let that erase the fact that despite the injuries, Detroit hasn't been getting thrown on.
On the other side of the ball, is Green Bay's defense capable of stopping the Lions on the ground?
This Green Bay defense is consistently getting run on and having problems getting off the field. Now they're gonna go into Detroit and stop the Lions from running the ball?
The Lions run game just seems to be getting going. I'm definitely worried about Glasnow on the offensive line. It's uncertain if he's gonna play.
I think there's multiple ways the Lions can win this game. I think they can run the ball and play defense. I also think Goff can win a shootout if the game goes that way. Green Bay's pass rush has been great at times, but there's also been times where it's nonexistent. Goff at Ford Field is always down to go off. I also tend to shade my number a half point or so towards the home team on short weeks.
I'm on Detroit -2.5. I make the game 3. Outside of Week 1, I think the Lions body of work is far more impressive than the Packers.
CHIEFS @ COWBOYS - 4:30 PM
There was a time where betting the Cowboys on Thanksgiving was very lucrative. The Troy Aikman era and the Tony Romo era. But betting Dallas on Thanksgiving has not been profitable recently.
We don't see Dallas as underdogs on Thanksgiving often. Just 6 times in the last 30 years.
Both these teams coming off huge comeback wins that ended with walk-off game winning FGs. We're watching Chiefs Cowboys in Week 13 and neither team is currently in a playoff spot.
This new look Dallas defense is gonna be put to the test in this one. I don't think it's crazy to say they're able to limit KC on the ground. Pacheco is expected to return but with Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams in the middle against a hobbled Chiefs IOL, I think the Cowboys can keep KC from running the ball on em.
The Cowboys defense has shut down the run since the dramatic roster change.
I don't think it's crazy to say that Dallas is able to generate some pressure on Mahomes either.
The part of this matchup that I hate for Dallas is the secondary. Mahomes should have no problems piecing the Cowboys zone up all afternoon.
Dallas lives in Cover 2 and Cover 3... 61% of their snaps this year are in either Cover 2 or Cover 3. Patrick Mahomes has been arguably the best QB in the NFL this year against Cover 2 and he's got good numbers against Cover 3 also.
Here's the thing... Mahomes has been terrible on the road this year. This is the wrench that gets thrown into everything. PATRICK MAHOMES HOMETOWN TYLER, TEXAS. HE'S GOT A HUGE SUITE WITH A TON OF FRIENDS AND FAMILY GOING.
On the other side of the ball, we know Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense in Jerry World is dangerous.
This Kansas City defense is a lot better than their full season numbers are showing though. They just played an elite game against the Colts last week.
Dallas is gonna be missing LT Tyler Guyton. That could be a problem against Spagnuolo's blitz packages.
The one data point that's throwing me off is the Buffalo game. Cuz I really think KC's defense can give Dallas problems. I think Spagz can trick Dak into throwing an INT or two. This one game is throwing a wrench into things.
I think Kansas City is the move at a flat 3. Hard Knocks: In Season has been filming Dallas this week.
BENGALS @ RAVENS - 8:20 PM
Joe Burrow is most likely back. He's had problems against Baltimore. He's 3-6 lifetime against the Ravens, but just 1-6 against them when Lamar Jackson plays. We've seen some good ones though. 3-4 ATS.
In addition to Joe Burrow, obviously we've got Jamar Chase back as well.
Cincinnati should really have a ton of flexibility on the offensive side of the ball. The run game's been pretty efficient. Joe Burrow being on the field also adds to threat of downfield throws, which wasn't there as much with Flacco.
Remember, this Baltimore defense has been playing much better. But this is still a limited defensive line. The Bengals run game has been efficient enough to keep this defense honest.
This isn't one or two games, we're talking about a significant chunk of the season where the Bengals have been running the football well.
Another thing we have to consider... Baltimore's defense hasn't exactly been through the gauntlet recently. This is the most explosive offense the Ravens have seen in a while.
On the other side of the ball, this is where we have an obvious mismatch.
I'm not really worried about Lamar Jackson. I'm not saying we completely ignore these numbers... but Minnesota's got an elite pass rush, Cleveland's got an elite pass rush and there were 25 MPH winds in that game. Struggling against the Jets is concerning... if he doesn't play well in this game, then I'll officially say "ok we need to take note of this"... but as of right now, I don't think there's reason to worry.
There's still no Trey Hendrickson for Cincinnati.
Cincinnati has really struggled to generate pressure this year, (although they actually have been ok in the last few games). So even though Lamar Jackson has struggled throwing the ball, I'm not really worried about it.
I'm also not worried about the Ravens run game. For whatever reason, they couldn't do anything against the Jets. They were running the ball consistently in the 5 games before that.
I'm also not reading too much into Cincinnati's run defense. They showed up out of nowhere and played back to back excellent games against the run.
Here's the thing... Cincinnati is still alive in this. They still play Baltimore twice. Pittsburgh's got a really tough schedule.
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