NFL Week 13 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- 4 hours ago
- 12 min read
TEXANS @ COLTS - 1 PM
Davis Mills era is over after a 3-0 run. They're above .500 for the first time this season.
As I'm sure you've heard, the Davis Mills era is over.
Colts defense is in good shape also though, with the exception of Buckner.
Houston's had success against the Colts recently but I think we can toss this out because this year's Colts team is an entirely different animal.
This is a huge game for Houston. If they win this game, they're just a game out of the division and they still play the Colts again in Week 18. The Texans were 3-5 when Stroud got hurt... now they're 1 win away from being right in the division and wildcard mix.
So Houston's offense on the road is not typically something I like to rely on.
It's not just this year. CJ Stroud's been much more reliable at home his entire career.
We've seen the Colts play two games since DeForest Buckner went down. They're definitely struggling to get off the field.
I think we're gonna see Houston run the ball in this game. In the last 3, we saw Houston leaning a bit more on the run with Davis Mills at QB... and it actually didn't look bad.
That combined with the fact that Houston's offensive line is completely healthy, CJ Stroud should have clean pockets to work with. I like this matchup for Houston's offense.
On the other side of the ball, we've got a serious matchup.
And both of these units are healthy and ready to go.
That Colts run game is serious... but nobody is moving the chains on the ground against Houston right now.
We have seen the run game taken away from the Colts a couple times... in fact... 2 of their last 3 games. It's the best rushing attack in the NFL this year... but I just can't see Houston's defense getting bulldozed like that.
Daniel Jones is gonna have his hands full. Houston's got one of the best pass rushes in the NFL... and they do it without blitzing. Will Anderson Jr. on one side and Danielle Hunter on the other side is unstoppable. They sacked Josh Allen 8 times last week. We just saw the Atlanta Falcons sack Daniel Jones 7 times a couple weeks ago.
And Daniel Jones hasn't been playing as well recently.
Houston's protected the football and Indianapolis hasn't.
There was a 4.5 available earlier in the week. I really wish I took it. I think this number should be 3. The Texans are trending upwards... the Colts are trending downwards. Houston's coming into this one on 3 days extra rest. I think this closes at a flat 3.
CARDINALS @ BUCCANEERS - 1 PM
Arizona just won the turnover battle 4-0 last week against Jacksonville and still lost at home. If you win the turnover battle 4-0 at home, you better not lose to the Jags.
This team might just be too injured to trust right now. The offensive line is hurting. Kelvin Beachum is also questionable.
And the Bucs defense is healthier.
We know Arizona's probably not gonna be able to run the ball in this game. They haven't been able to run the ball all season, the offensive line is injured and they're playing the Bucs.
I don't hate the matchup for Brissett throwing the ball. He's got great numbers against the blitz. But are they able to keep him protected?
Jacoby Brissett was pressured on over 46% of his dropbacks last week. The Jags, who normally blitz a decent amount, didn't blitz much in the game. They sacked Brissett 6 times and Travon Walker didn't even play in the game. Maybe having Marvin Harrison Jr. back could help... but I don't have alotta faith in Arizona right now.
On the other side of the ball, the matchup's interesting. Arizona's defense has been bad... but so has the Bucs offense.
Bucs are getting some much needed reinforcements though.
Same story for the Cardinals defense.
The Cardinals had that huge MNF win over Dallas... and since then, the defense has completely fallen off a cliff.
They've been struggling against the run... and the Bucs just seem to be getting the run game going. With Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker both active at the same time... and a healthier offensive line, Tampa shouldn't have problems running the ball.
So we're talking about Baker Mayfield, with run support... most likely with clean pockets to throw from.
It's also a good matchup for Baker in terms of coverage. Arizona runs a lotta 2H... a lotta Cover 4. Baker's been much better against zone. He's also one of the best QBs in the NFL against Cover 4 so far this year.
It might be a buy low on the Bucs. They've been through the gauntlet. Look at this schedule.
The only reason I haven't bet this... is I'm worried about Baker's injury. He's on track to play but apparently he's in a lotta pain. I'd be so pissed if I bet this and Baker leaves the game in the 1st quarter. It's Bucs -3.5 though.
JAGUARS @ TITANS - 1 PM
The final scores of both these teams' last games are a bit misleading. Jacksonville lost the turnover battle 0-4 and still won a road game. Tennessee had 1 scripted drive that game em an early 3. They didn't do anything after that for a long time. Seattle was repeatedly driving the ball up and down the field. They settled for 3 FGs drives. The score was 23-3 at one point and it coulda easily been 31-3. Titans then had a punt return TD... Seattle went right down the field again. And then the Titans did have 2 TD drives late but it was a 20 point game at that point. Titans facing mathematical elimination.
Jacksonville's been moving the football. The Titans defense is healthier and it's not terrible. But after seeing Seattle moving the ball so easily on them, I'm not sure how much faith I have.
Just to give you an idea of how effortlessly Seattle was moving the ball in that game.
Jags offense is getting healthier. Couple main starters back. They did lose Mekari at RG, but I'm sure Cole Van Lanen will slide over and start in that spot. He's been starting at RT for Harrison and he's played well.
Jags are scoring right now.
On the other side of the ball, Cam Ward looks a bit better but this is still the worst offense in the NFL. The Titans haven't been able to run the ball and Jacksonville's been great against the run, especially since getting Devin Lloyd back from injury.
Titans are hobbled on the offensive line. Both these offensive linemen got injured last week too so these are new.
Jags are still missing Travon Walker, which is huge. But they dominated the Cardinals offensive line last week without him.
Jacksonville's pass rush has been heating up. They're probably gonna be dialing up a lot of blitzes.
I think this should be 7.
RAMS @ PANTHERS - 1 PM
The Rams had back to back huge division wins... we were wondering if they would possibly come out flat against the Bucs. Wasn't the case.
They're now flying across the country to play a Carolina team that's right in the mix of things.
Unfortunately, the injuries are starting to add up here for Carolina.
Meanwhile the Rams are in really good shape.
Outside of the Rams just playing a really flat game, I'm not really seeing a path here to Carolina keeping this competitive.
We've seen Carolina's defensive front fall off. They can't seem to stop the run.
The Rams should dominate the LOS on this side of the ball.
We know Stafford's one of the best QBs in the NFL with a clean pocket.
On the other side of the ball, what are we expecting the Panthers to do offensively in this one?
Carolina's run game has completely fallen off the last 3 games with the injuries to the offensive line. The Rams have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Bryce Young has actually handled pressure well. He's done a good job escaping pressure and making a play. So I suppose that's something... but it's tough to find a path here.
If you're desperate to find a reason to back Carolina, you could say that the Rams have played most of their season on the west coast. We've only seen them come to the east coast 3 times.
I'll say under 45.5. Canales spoke openly about how he regrets abandoning the run last week. The Panthers were having the most success when they were running the ball. So I could see Carolina being diligent and running the ball a lot early. I also wouldn't be surprised to see McVay running the ball also.
With injuries to the secondary, I'm guessing Carolina's gonna be really conservative defensively to limit big plays.
They're a double digit favorite against a much worse team, no need to take risks.
SAINTS @ DOLPHINS - 1 PM
Miami comes into this one with some momentum.
The Saints might have the worst offense in the NFL right now. I think Cleveland and Tennessee might have jumped them. Atlanta's defense has been struggling all year. They were held to 4.4 YPP at home. They scored 10 points and 7 of them came on a pick 6. They went to the red zone 3 times and scored a combined 3 points.
And now with no Alvin Kamara, it's tough to have faith in this unit. Remember the offensive line is crushed.
So what do we think of Miami's defense?
We've seen the tale of two halves here from the Dolphins defense. They've been particularly strong against the run... so without Kamara and without McCoy in the middle, I'm not sure how we can count on the Saints to run the ball in this game.
And in terms of Shough throwing the ball, Miami's gonna be sending the house at him. He's been really bad against the blitz. What weapons does he have? No Kamara, Olave ques, Cooks gone, Shaheed gone. We should see a heavy workload for Devin Neal.
On the other side of the ball, this is where I actually think the Saints can put up a good fight in this game.
Unlike the Saints offense, the defense is completely healthy.
This defensive front has done a great job against the run.
The Saints may be equipped to keep Achane from killing em. Now this Miami offense is healthier. Austin Jackson hasn't played since Week 1.
The Saints pass rush isn't good... but they do blitz a lot and Tua has had problems against the blitz this year.
Now we definitely need to take note that we're in Miami. The Dolphins offense has been significantly better at Hard Rock this year.
Also, Miami's offense looked much better than the final score showed in their last game.
As far as betting this game, I really think the Saints can keep it competitive but this offense is so bad and injured, I'd need a 7 to actually consider betting it. I also kinda like the under but 42.5? In Miami? The market seems to be on top of what I was thinking here.
FALCONS @ JETS - 1 PM
The main question in this one... is the Falcons run defense fixed? We've seen back to back games where the Falcons shut the run down. Do we just erase the first 9 games of the year?
On one hand, you can say "well they played Carolina and New Orleans. Two injured offensive lines". But Deablo is back.. maybe the Falcons defense is tightening things up against the run.
The reason this is so important... is the one thing the Jets can do well on offense is run the ball.
With no Zach Harrison, the Jets offensive line should be able to consistently generate push in this game.
They're completely healthy on the line. Breece Hall is good to go. Jets should be able to run the ball in this game.
Now as far as Tyrod Taylor against the Falcons blitz packages? I'm not sure. Atlanta has 39 sacks this year, which is 3rd most in the NFL and 22 sacks in the last 4 games.
He actually did play pretty well last week... but Baltimore doesn't have the pass rush that Atlanta does.
Keep in mind, this is Jeff Ulbrich against his old team. He was DC for the Jets last year. He probably has a good idea how to give Tyrod Taylor problems.
On the other side of the ball, we know we're dealing with a very injured Falcons offense against a Jets defense that traded 2 of its best players.
No Penix or London... but the offensive line should be healthy.
We're seeing the Falcons start to run the ball which is huge for them. If Kirk Cousins doesn't have run support and can't utilize play-action, this offense could potentially look really bad.
But here's the thing... the Jets have all their linebackers back.
Look at the Jets last two games since getting Quincy Williams back.
And as far as Kirk Cousins throwing the ball, he was efficient last week. That was indoors against a Saints team that can't generate pressure.
This is different. Outdoors in the cold rain? I don't trust Kirk Cousins to play well in these conditions.
I took the Jets +3. The Falcons were just 1.5 point underdogs against the worst team in the NFL... now we're laying a full FG on the road against a team I believe is better than the Saints? Kirk Cousin in the cold rain?
49ERS @ BROWNS - 1 PM
I know San Francisco's offense has shown flashes of the 2023, but I still am not expecting much here on the road in Cleveland.
The 49ers run game has come around and I think we've seen enough of a sample size where we have to respect it. Does that mean we trust em to go into Cleveland in a cold rain/snow windy day and run the ball on Cleveland's defensive front?
Did you see the weather?
They better run the ball... cuz the idea of Brock Purdy dropping back to pass in this weather against Cleveland's defense is nuts. Browns have also limited scrambling QBs.
I'm not expecting Cleveland to do much on the other side of the ball. Shedeur Sanders in this weather is gonna be rough. But San Francisco's defense really hasn't been very good. Sanders is the 13th starting QB under Stefanski.
Shedeur Sanders was efficient when given a clean pocket last week. He should have plenty of clean pockets to throw from in this game. The weather makes it really tough though.
Bethune is still out.
I'm on Browns +7. I also played Juszczyk ATD (+1000).
VIKINGS @ SEAHAWKS - 4 PM
Revenge game for Darnold.
So Minnesota just gave us what was probably one of the worst offensive performances we've seen from any team this season. The Vikings had 4 yards of offense at half.
That now makes 4 games in a row where Minnesota's been running the ball.
Now does that mean they can run the ball on the road against Seattle's defense? Probably not.
On top of that, we've got injuries to the offensive line now.
I think Max Brosmer might be an upgrade right now. I'm reading he looks good in practice.
It's gonna be a nightmare on this side of the ball. I do trust KOC as a playcaller though. Don't be surprised if the Vikings are able to move the chains in this game.
On the other side of the ball, this might be a really tough matchup for Seattle.
Injury concerns for Minnesota but all 4 of these guys have practiced everyday.
Where I'm looking is right here. We're seeing Darnold's numbers against the blitz and under pressure come down. What does Brian Flores do every year? Sends a ton of pressure and lives in Cover 2.
Darnold hasn't seen a ton of cover 2 this year and has still thrown 2 INTs.
We've seen Darnold play 3 games this year against elite pass rushes. They just so happen to be the 3 worst games of the season.
I'm on the Vikings. Got a terrible number +9.5.
BILLS @ STEELERS - 4 PM
So Buffalo on the road... should we be concerned about this?
The good news for Buffalo is this is a favorable matchup. Going into Pittsburgh and moving the ball is not historically an easy thing to do. But you go from going to Houston against the best defense in the NFL on a short week... to going to Pittsburgh against a struggling Steelers defense on 10 days rest.
Here's where it gets concerning for Buffalo. We just saw a game where Buffalo really struggled against the pass rush. Josh Allen was sacked 8 times in this game.
Now they're gonna see the Steelers pass rush, which isn't as elite as Houston's but it's still strong.
But they're also coming into this game missing both OTs. Both left the Houston game injured and both have been ruled out.
And Pittsburgh's getting Highsmith back. So we've got TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith on the edges against backup OTs. Keep in mind, the Bills have turned the ball over 9 times in their last 3 games.
Buffalo's gotta try to establish the run in this game. Pittsburgh's struggled a little bit against the run but it's not that bad.
So do we trust the Steelers to move the ball here against Buffalo's defense?
Good news for Pittsburgh is Aaron Rodgers is back at QB. The bad news is they lost LT Broderick Jones.
With Terrel Bernard being ruled out, I'm not sure how we can count on Buffalo's defense to stop the run in this game.
The Steelers offense is normally not a rushing attack that would worry me, but look at Buffalo's last 4 games.
And we gotta give Pittsburgh some credit. They got off to a slow start on the ground... and they don't run the ball very often... but they actually have been efficient on the ground the 2nd half of this season.
I don't love the idea of Aaron Rodgers against the Bills pass rush without the LT... but Rodgers is a guy that always tends to get the ball out quickly... and if he has run support, I think the Steelers offense should be able to move the ball in this game.
There's a lotta things pointing towards Pittsburgh in this game. I even think the weather favors Pittsburgh a bit.
Tomlin has had problems with the Bills in recent years, but this Buffalo team on the road just flat out hasn't been very good this year.
