NFL Week 12 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- Nov 23
- 11 min read
STEELERS @ BEARS - 1 PM
We all know the lore here.
But is he gonna play?
Bears defense is wrecked.
The matchup between Pittsburgh's offense and Chicago's defense is interesting. I don't really trust either unit at all and there's injury conversations on both sides.
I don't trust the Bears run defense at all, but the Steelers offensive line has not generated push this year.
If Rodgers plays, it should be a great matchup for him. They blitz a lot. Rodgers has great numbers against the blitz. He gets the ball out quickly. I'm not sure if the Bears defense can get off the field.
On the other side, the Bears offense is improving, but it's still not a unit I fully trust.
I do question the defenses they've seen though.
The Steelers have been tough against the run. Also, I don't love that Caleb Williams loves to hold onto the ball and extend plays. That could be a disaster against this Steelers pass rush that loves to create turnovers.
Steelers defense might be back. Has there been any games that the Bears won comfortably?
Alex Highsmith is out again. They had just gotten him back. But the Steelers defense is a bit healthier.
I think the market's pretty spot on here. If I knew Rodgers was playing, I'd take the Steelers at +3. Total might be a bit high... I'd probably make it 44.5 but don't love anything there either.
JETS @ RAVENS - 1 PM
Jets have a new QB.
So Tyrod Taylor is officially the starting QB... and I'm surprised the total didn't drop. Tyrod Taylor is a very different QB than Justin Fields... I'm not talking about better or worse. He's just safer... less big explosive plays and less turnovers. So I'm surprised we didn't see the total drop a point or two with that news.
If you've been watching football, you know the Ravens defense has been night and day better since getting a bit healthier and adding Gilman.
I gotta say... I don't necessarily love this matchup for em. Not because I think the Jets offense is dangerous in anyway. But remember... the Ravens defensive line is still a mess.
The one thing the Jets offense has done a good job with is generating push on the offensive line. The Jets can run the ball.
The Jets can run the ball. It's not some unstoppable force... but they just played back to back games against two of the best run defenses in the NFL.
I do think the Jets will be able to move the chains a bit on the ground in this game. With Tyrod Taylor at QB and no Garrett Wilson, Baltimore probably can get pretty aggressive to take the run away since the Jets might not be able to make em pay for it. There was talk about Adonai Mitchell getting separation and not captaiizing. He dropped 3 passes and didn't get enough targets.
Baltimore also doesn't have much of a pass rush, so Tyrod Taylor should have room to work from in this game as well. He hasn't been efficient throwing the ball from a clean pocket. I think the Jets should be able to sustain a few drives for the simple fact that their offensive line has the significant advantage though. Also, Tyrod Taylor is typically a QB that protects the football.
Now on the other side of the ball, this is an interesting matchup.
Baltimore's run game seems all the way back. Lamar Jackson has had a couple shaky games in a row throwing the ball... but they played Minnesota and Cleveland.
What makes it interesting... is this Jets defense is much healthier.
I think it's irresponsible to count on the Jets to stop Baltimore's offense... but it is a bit of a flat spot.
I guess if you forced me to bet this game, I'd take the Jets at +13.5... if there was a 14 available, maybe but I don't have a ton of interest.
GIANTS @ LIONS - 1 PM
Well we've got Detroit, coming off a loss and a bye week.
We know what that means.
They're at home, where the offense is always a freight train... against a Giants defense that can't stop the run. Tell me this isn't an absolute smash spot for Detroit.
The injury report is definitely concerning for Detroit's offense but from what I'm reading, the offensive line is all trending towards playing. Sam LaPorta being out is big... but I don't imagine it's much of a factor in this one.
If the offensive line's playing, I don't see any reason the Lions can't average 6 YPC in this game.
The Giants have the worst run defense in the NFL and I don't think it's debatable at this point.
On the other side of the ball, I think you can probably make a case for Jameis Winston making throws on this injured Lions secondary.
The front 7 is in good shape... but the secondary is crushed for this one.
Jameis wasn't great in the Green Bay game but that wasn't the best matchup for him to open things up. We know Jameis likes to throw the ball downfield... there were 25 MPH winds and the Packers have elite edge rushers. This game's indoors against an injured secondary. We'll probably see Jameis take some shots in this one.
I'm not sure if the Giants have the WRs to take advantage of Detroit's man coverage here... but Darius Slayton is back which helps.
I took the over. Didn't get a great number. 50.5.
PATRIOTS @ BENGALS - 1 PM
Well right off the bat, we know this is a major mismatch.
Not only are the Patriots coming into this one with a few extra days rest... but they're also healthier on this side of the ball.
Still no Hendrickson. They've got a 5th round pick rookie starting at corner.
We're talking about Drake Maye, with clean pockets to throw from... against a terrible Bengals secondary.
On the other side of the ball, the lead story was the possible return of Joe Burrow. There's also no Jamar Chase in this game.
New England's run defense has looked shaky in their last two games. So maybe Cincinnati can get the run going.
Remember, the Bengals are very efficient on the ground. They're more of a pass-first offense, but when they do hand it off, they've had success.
I know Flacco had some big games here, but last week was not good... and with no Jamar Chase, I'm just not sure if they can keep up.
I'm on New England at -5.5.
SEAHAWKS @ TITANS - 1 PM
So obviously, on paper, we'd expect Seattle's offense to move the ball pretty fluently on the Titans defense.
There are some injury concerns for Seattle though.
And I know you're thinking "who cares? It's just the Titans"... but honestly, the Seahawks offense didn't look great last week without their center. Now they're most likely missing a guard.
But this Titans defense isn't the same as the completely injured Titans defense we were watching earlier in the season. Simmons and Key are both back and they both made huge plays in the Houston game.
The Titans just played their best defensive game of the season by a mile.
Tennessee can generate pressure. Seahawks with an injured offensive line. Sam Darnold has struggled with pressure this year. There's a path to the Titans giving Seattle's offense problems. Now, can Tennessee's secondary hang with the Seahawks WRs? No... but there's a path. Forcing turnovers was mentioned. Titans have really struggled to generate turnovers this year and we are talking about Sam Darnold on the road.
Now on the other side of the ball, there's not even a discussion. Seattle's defense is a nightmare for the Titans.
The Rams had the most efficient offense in the NFL on paper entering last week... and they were really struggling to move the ball against this defense.
We just saw Tennessee against an elite defense and it didn't look great.
Cam Ward is showing some improvement. But it's still really tough to see him having success against Seattle.
I don't trust the Titans offense enough to take the points. I suppose you could say it's a flat spot for the Seahawks... but coming off a loss?
I think it's gonna be an ugly game. I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans defense gives Darnold problems. But I don't know how the Titans score any points in this game. Give me Titans +13 and the under but it's a no-go for me.
VIKINGS @ PACKERS - 1 PM
So on paper, this looks like a terrible mismatch for the Vikings offense.
But stopping the run is starting to look like a bit of a weakness for Green Bay.
On top of that, Green Bay just lost their leading tackler.
And Minnesota is finally getting their pro-bowl center back.
Vikings have been running the ball recently.
As far as JJ McCarthy? I'm not sure. He's been struggling and Green Bay's pass rush off the edge has been excellent.
And on the other side of the ball, this is a tough matchup for Green Bay.
And on the other side of the ball, this is a tough matchup for Green Bay. We know Jordan Love's got ugly looking splits under pressure. Nobody generates more pressure than Brian Flores.
Green Bay has struggled to keep Jordan Love protected... he's holding onto the football too long. This is a tough matchup.
We know Green Bay wants to run the ball... but there's no Jenkins at center and there might not be Josh Jacobs in the backfield.
Minnesota's playing really well on this side of the ball. They played 3 games in a row against good offenses and are allowing just 5.3 YPP.
I'm on Minnesota in this one. What has Green Bay done to be laying 6.5 points in a division game against one of the best defenses in the NFL?
I'm on Minnesota at 6.5. I think this number should be 4.
COLTS @ CHIEFS - 1 PM
Spags gets to take his shot against this Colts offense.
On paper, Daniel Jones is perfectly equipped to deal with the Chiefs blitz packages and pass rush.
Are we seeing Daniel Jones come back down to earth? Colts have turned the ball over 8 times in the last 2 games. Daniel Jones was sacked 7 times in the Falcons game. What happened in the Steelers game? Turnovers galore... now he's not playing with confidence?
Outside of the Buffalo game, this Chiefs defense looks really strong.
This is a Chiefs team coming off a loss... playing a home game. The Chiefs lost to the Eagles at Arrowhead in Week 2. They haven't lost a home game since.
Stopping Jonathan Taylor's obviously gonna be a challenge but the Chiefs defensive front has really solidified things after a terrible start.
And on the other side of the ball, let's give the Colts a bit of credit. They've been better defensively... but the Chiefs at home in Arrowhead? CB Charvarius Ward might be back for this game. EDGE Samson Ebukam might be bag for this game. Chiefs missing OG. Worthy might be out.
How did the Colts defense look in their first game without DeForest Buckner?
Mahomes has been a beast at Arrowhead. Lou Anarumo has out-coached Andy Reid before. Patrick Mahomes has beaten every single NFL team in the regular season except one. The Colts. He's 0-2 against the Colts.
I'm on the Chiefs. This number should be 4.5.
JAGUARS @ CARDINALS - 4 PM
The Cardinals defense has just fallen off. Shanahan put Jonathan Gannon in a pretzel last week.
The fact that they've been specifically struggling against the run is concerning in this matchup. Jags offensive line should be healthy, getting Anton Harrison back. Brian Thomas Jr. might be back (first time him and Meyers play together).
There are injuries everywhere. I guess over.
Gannon's job in jeopardy? Maybe won't see year 3?
If Jacksonville didn't blow that lead to Houston, that woulda been 3 road wins in a row.
No Marvin Harrison? No RBs? Offensive line is dealing with injuries. Jonah Williams most likely not playing. Kelvin Beachum might not play. (Josh Fryar might be getting his NFL debut) Will Hernandez also didn't play a full game last week and might be out.
BROWNS @ RAIDERS - 4 PM
Shedeur Sanders getting his first start. The rest of the Cleveland offense is in good shape.
This is the complete opposite of last week. Last week, he was outdoors in 25 MPH winds. He was put in mid-game after not taking 1st team reps all week. He was thrown into a gameplan that was tailored to Dillon Gabriel, (a very different QB).
Stefanski made it clear that they're gonna rely heavily on the run game. Earlier in the season, the Raiders were strong against the run. That's kinda fallen off though.
The Raiders pass rush has been really disappointing this year. They struggle to generate consistent pressure. This really is a great matchup for Shedeur Sanders.
If Cleveland can do anything on offense, they should be in good shape because they have the huge advantage on the other side of the ball.
Now this isn't exactly the best situation for Cleveland's defense. They've been outdoors for a couple months. This is in a dome. That being said, the Browns defense played well in Week 4 against the Lions.
But what are we expecting the Raiders to do offensively in this game? They're missing two starters on the offensive line. They can't run the ball at all. They're playing arguably the best run defense in the NFL. 12 carries 27 yards vs Dallas.
Are we expecting Geno Smith to have a big game? How much time do we think he's gonna have to throw?
I gotta take Cleveland here. I'm not sure why the Raiders are laying more than a FG in this game.
EAGLES @ COWBOYS - 4 PM
I think we need to just erase the data we have for the Cowboys defense.
I'm not implying that the Cowboys defense is now excellent. But this is a completely different unit than we were watching earlier in the season.
But we can't ignore the fact that this Eagles offense doesn't look correct right now. On top of the overall struggles, we're talking about an injured offensive line also. Most likely no Lane Johnson or Jurgens.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas is gonna struggle offensively. Philly's defense is on another planet right now.
The Eagles defense just flipped a switch and entered Super Bowl mode. They've been elite.
Might be a sell high spot on the Eagles defense. The last time we saw them play a game in these kind of conditions was the indoor game they played in Minnesota. Carson Wentz was moving the ball on Philly in that game. That was a 2 point game with 6 minutes left.
But let's not forget we're talking about the Cowboys offense, with a healthy offensive line, in Jerry World.
In addition to that, Dak Prescott has had a ton of success against Philadelphia.
When have the Eagles won by margin?
Cowboys +4.5.
FALCONS @ SAINTS - 4 PM
DREW BREES IS CALLING THE GAME.
No Penix. No London. Falcons have lost 5 consecutive NFC South games, including a 20-17 loss their last trip to New Orleans (Derek Carr was playing QB).
I know it's Kirk Cousins, but it is the Saints defense in the Superdome. They don't have a pass rush... the secondary has struggled this year.
We know the Falcons are gonna run the ball. They need to get Kirk Cousins working out of play-action because that's when he's best. The Saints defensive front might be able to shut that down.
How many points are we expecting the Saints to score here?
Falcons defense getting a lot healthier. LB Deablo, CB Dee Alford, CB Mike Hughes, Leonard Floyd. What are we expecting Tyler Shough to do against the Falcons blitz packages? WIth no Erik McCoy at center. Trevor Penning is gone. Fuaga is even questionable.
I kinda like the Falcons but I don't have the nuts to actually bet it.
BUCS @ RAMS - 8 PM
Bucs are still injured on the offensive side of the ball.
We're in week 12 now. I think we have to start pricing out the current Bucs offense as a bad offense. At what point do we say "they're just not very good". They're on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
And the same thing applies as last week. I said I thought Sam Darnold could struggle because the Rams are stronger against downfield throws. If you wanna give this Rams defense problems, you gotta dink and dunk.
The Rams did just lose another member of the secondary last week. So I suppose there's something. Also, we know Baker as a road dog can make magic. But he's lost two games in a row as a road dog. And this year's Bucs offense might just be too injured to rely on.
Here's the thing. On the other side of the ball, I really think the Bucs defense can compete here.
The Bucs can definitely take the run away. They're gonna be sending all types of blitzes at Stafford. And Stafford can't run around like a maniac like Josh Allen did last week.
There are some injuries on this defense.
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