NFL Week 11 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- Nov 16
- 14 min read
COMMANDERS @ DOLPHINS - 9:30 AM
The roof will be closed.
Washington looking to snap the streak. If the Commanders get beat by 20+ points in this game, they will tie an NFL record for most consecutive 20 point losses. They'd be tying the 1986 Tampa Bay Bucs.
The Dolphins have been playing some decent football recently. They've won two of their last three... and the only loss was to Baltimore. And btw... they actually were controlling that Ravens game in the 1st half too.
The biggest difference... is right here.
So can we count on the Dolphins defense to make stops in this game?
On one hand, you could say "this offense is too injured. They look like shit"... but on the other hand, you can say "this offense just played @ KC, SEA and DET... 3 tough games where they were down two touchdowns almost immediately. Washington isn't trying to drop Mariota back to pass 40 times playing from behind.
So part of me thinks this might be a nice buy-low spot on Washington's offense. The injuries are kinda tough to ignore though.
Marcus Mariota is actually excellent against the blitz and Miami blitzes a lot. There is a path to Washington moving the football in this game.
Miami's been much better against the run recently, but they caught the Bills in a great spot off the Chiefs game. They played the Browns, the Falcons, the Chargers. Baltimore was able to run the ball somewhat well on Miami. Washington's been decent. I think the Commanders are able to sustain some drives here.
This matchup gets tough on the other side of the ball. I don't really trust the Dolphins offense away from Miami. But Washington's defense is an absolute trainwreck right now.
So is Washington's defense this bad? Or is this just the roughest stretch of schedule ever for a defense?
The injuries are serious on this side of the ball as well.
I don't trust Tua away from Miami. He also hasn't been doing much through the air. Miami's playing better but it's the defense and Achane more than Tua.
Where Miami has had success is right here. Maybe not consistently moving the chains... but Achane is always good to rip a big play off.
The thing is... I don't really think this Dolphins offense is built to exploit where Washington's struggling. They're injured on the defensive line... but Miami's injured on the offensive line. They can't cover anybody at corner... but I don't trust Tua to throw the ball downfield and Tyreek Hill's hurt. Miami's offense is built on Achane making guys miss in space... I think Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu can make those tackles.
If there's a flat 3 available at some point, maybe I'd consider Washington. WAS +2.5 and UNDER 47.5.
PACKERS @ GIANTS - 1 PM
Green Bay's recent body of work just isn't impressive.
It's crazy to think with the offense that's gonna be on the field for the Giants in this game, that the line is still only 7. Market is not loving the Packers right now.
Green Bay has key injuries also... but not so much on this side of the ball.
If you're betting the Giants in the game, you're counting on two things. First, you're counting on the Packers offense to stay in their slump... and second, you're counting on the Giants to run the ball in this game. Green Bay did a good job against the Eagles last week... but stopping the run has been a problem recently for this defense.
It's tough to expect much from the Giants in terms of a passing attack. we saw how bad this Giants offense looked before Dart took over. Now it's Jameis Winston at QB not Wilson. The Giants do have the element of surprise here with Daboll being fired. I wouldn't be surprised if they're able to string a couple scoring drives together early.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants defense might be a sight for sore eyes. Green Bay's got injuries... Jordan Love certainly hasn't looked great. But the Giants can't stop anybody on the ground.
Look at the last 4 games.
And this is a really banged up defense.
Now Green Bay's got no room to talk about injuries. Their offense is also banged up.
Green Bay's been dealing with injuries on the offensive line all season and they've still run the ball pretty consistently. Even without Jenkins at center, I would imagine Josh Jacobs should have a very efficient game on the ground.
As far as Jordan Love, I really don't know. He doesn't look good. Was Tucker Kraft that important? The pressure rate is a concern.
The good news is... the Giants pass rush hasn't been very good this year and without Thibodeaux, you'd imagine they'd be even less effective. He should have clean pockets to throw from.
The Giants run more man coverage than any team in the NFL. So on paper, this should be a perfect matchup for Jordan Love.
I think the way to go here is over. I'm a little worried about Green Bay holding onto the ball forever and killing the clock. But they should score... and Jameis on the other side?
LaFleur was criticized for conservative playcalling... Giants are calling the offense with house money. I would just go fireworks in this one. Over 42.
BUCCANEERS @ BILLS - 1 PM
Both these teams looking to bounce back after a loss.
There was a positive takeaway from the loss though for Tampa Bay. They were running the ball and controlling the game. Remember, New England scored 21 of their points on 3 huge plays. Bucs dominated time of possession. The reason this is significant, this is what we saw from the Bucs last year with Bucky Irving.
We know that's the huge weakness of this Buffalo defense.
Everyone who plays the Bills is able to run the ball on em.
Now the Bills defense is a bit healthier... so maybe they're in a little bit better shape. But they were getting run on before the injuries also.
I know the Bucs offense is so injured, but I still think they can run the ball in this game. They had all these same injuries last week and they were running the ball on New England.
And if the Bucs can run the ball, I think they can score points. The strength of this Buffalo defense is the pass rush, but Baker Mayfield has been one of the best QBs in the NFL under pressure for multiple years now.
And we're talking about Baker Mayfield as a road underdog. I think Tampa can score points in this game.
And on the other side of the ball, Tampa might be able to give the Bills offense some problems. This is arguably the best run defense in the NFL and Buffalo is an offense that wants to run the ball.
The vulnerable part of this Bucs defense has always been the secondary. They've actually done a decent job recently but we're talking about Josh Allen at home in Buffalo. So I'm sure there will be opportunities for Josh Allen to make plays here.
We know Todd Bowles is gonna be sending blitzes after him. Josh Allen has actually had some problems with pressure this year... but he's done a good job reading blitzes.
Dalton Kincaid is gonna miss this game but Josh Allen has plenty of weapons.
I'll be honest when I bet the look-ahead here, I thought the Bills would beat Miami. Now that they're coming off a loss, that changes things a bit. I'm on the Bucs at +6.5.
BENGALS @ STEELERS - 1 PM
Revenge spot for Pittsburgh. We all remember what happened.
Cincinnati's offense hasn't slowed down since.
Joe Flacco was listed as questionable last week as well and he went nuclear.
Injuries on the Steelers defense are racking up.
So I think we're all expecting Cincinnati's offense to go nuts again in this one. Here's why I disagree a bit with that.
I feel like Pittsburgh's gonna be a lot more prepared for this one. The pass rush is heating up.
In Week 7, Flacco was getting rid of the ball insanely fast. Joe Flacco dropped back to pass 49 times in this game. Wanna know how many passes traveled 20 yards? 3.
On the other side of the ball, I don't think the Steelers offense is good... but Cincinnati has the worst defense in the NFL.
This is truly a historic run.
This team doesn't even know how to spell pressure. No Shemar Stewart and Trey Hendrickson?
Now here's where it gets interesting... you might be wondering why this total is only 48.5... it's supposed to be pretty windy.
Lots of running... lack of explosive plays... clock continuously rolling... UNDER 49.5.
TEXANS @ TITANS - 1 PM
Houston coming off a miracle win and cover.
This might be a perfect sell-high spot on this Houston offense. They've played 3 consecutive home games. Now they go out on the road where the Houston offense has been significantly worse. They did have that one game where they played Baltimore missing their entire team though.
You've got Davis Mills at QB. If there was ever a spot for Tennessee to play a great defensive game, it's right here.
Tennessee's defense is healthier than they have been, maybe this entire year. And they're coming off a bye week.
I very seriously doubt Houston's able to run the ball in this game. OC Nick Caley said they're making establishing the run a priority... I'm not sure it'll happen here.
Houston couldn't run the ball at home against an injured Titans defense. I doubt they're gonna be able to run it on the road against a healthier Titans defense, coming off a bye week.
I think the Titans can generate pressure with their front 4 and Davis Mills is gonna struggle. The advantage in this game would be Nico Collins and those WRs against the Titans secondary. I'm not even sure if they're able to exploit it.
And the Titans didn't just get healthier on defense. With Calvin Ridley most likely returning, this is actually going to be the first game all season that the Titans full offensive is completely healthy.
Let's not get it twisted though... this is a complete mismatch on this side of the ball. This is the worst offense in the NFL against the worst defense in the NFL.
Cam Ward has played better. I know you're looking at these numbers like "what do you mean?"
Compared to his first 6 games? Not even close.
Remember, we're talking about a new era of Titans football here with an interim HC. We've seen them play one game with the new coach. That was a one score game. They played the Chargers tough.
I think this is a one possession game. The number's pretty much gone now. I'm on Titans +7.5.
BEARS @ VIKINGS - 1 PM
Bears looking for revenge. This was the game where JJ McCarthy looked absolutely terrible. Everyone was making fun of him on Twitter. Bears were up double digits... then McCarthy orchestrated 3 consecutive TD drives to come back and win.
The main question for the Bears offense... is that newly found run game gonna be there against Minnesota's defense?
Ben Johnson has this run game rolling. We do have to point out the defenses though.
Do we trust this Minnesota run defense?
Greenard is out. Other than that, the Vikings defense is good.
Braxton Jones is out for Chicago but that's not new.
That run game better be there for the Bears... cuz if you're asking me if I trust Caleb Williams against Brian Flores blitz packages, then the answer is no.
He's never beaten Minnesota before... although his numbers are actually solid against em. 2 of the 3 losses were by a FG. One went to OT.
On the other side of the ball, this is where this matchup gets difficult. The Vikings offense is not very good... but neither is the Bears defense.
The Bears don't generate a ton of pressure... but they do blitz a lot and JJ McCarthy's got some ugly looking numbers against the blitz. It's also one of the least efficient QBs in the NFL from a clean pocket.
Good news for the Bears... it looks like Brisker is gonna play. That's huge because they can't afford anymore injuries.
The question is... do you trust the Bears to stop Minnesota on the ground? This graphic makes it look like they're doing a great job against the run, which they are. But TJ Edwards being injured again is tough.
Minnesota's pretty healthy on this side of the ball. Both Darrisaw and O'Neill have dealt with injuries. Neither are on the report. Aaron Jones is back as well.
Since they got healthier, they've been running the ball. So even though I don't trust JJ McCarthy, I think Minnesota's able to control this game on the ground.
VIKINGS -2.5 AND UNDER 48.5. Vikings can clear up the penalties.
PANTHERS @ FALCONS - 1 PM
Falcons coming off a tough loss where they played a great game. Panthers are coming off a terrible loss where they played a terrible game.
Obviously, we know Falcons really need to get revenge for this beatdown we saw earlier in the season.
This is officially a "must-win" for Atlanta.
These are two football teams that are really tough to get a feel for right now. Based on the full year numbers, you'd think Carolina should have no problems running the ball on this Falcons defense.
But Carolina's run game really hasn't looked the same recently.
It's crazy... this Panthers offense was so injured. Then when they finally got healthy, that's when the run game stopped working. I'm sure the Panthers will be able to run the ball a little in this game... but I think those dominant Rico Dowdle 200 yard games might be in the past.
They better run the ball... cuz Bryce Young against the Falcons blitz packages is a terrible matchup.
Falcons have some injures. I honestly don't know.
On the other side of the ball... I honestly dk here either. Is the Falcons offense good?
We actually haven't seen the Falcons play a home game with Penix at QB since Week 6... and that was arguably their best win of the season.
Bijan went off in that game also.
Carolina's defense seems to be trending in the wrong direction.
But how can we trust Atlanta's offense if Drake London might not be playing?
Panthers missing Trevin Wallace, one of their leading tacklers.
I'd make the game 4... so I guess at 3.5, it would be Atlanta. I also would lean over 41.5.
CHARGERS @ JAGUARS - 1 PM
So we know the Chargers are gonna struggle to run the ball in this game. Jacksonville's been really strong up front this year and the Chargers have issues at RB as well as the offensive line.
The questionable part of this Jags defense is the secondary. The Chargers WRs can definitely beat this unit.
Here's the thing... will Justin Herbert have the time to let these routes develop? Jacksonville's pass rush is ok.
Remember, these aren't supposed to be the OTs for the Chargers. Both their starting OTs are out for the season. As vulnerable as the secondary is for Jacksonville, with no run support and limited pass protection, do you think the Chargers go fly across the country and exploit it? I think the Jags are gonna play a good defensive game here.
Justin Herbert might be a little queasy in this building. Remember... this is where the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead in a playoff game just a few years ago.
On the other side of the ball, this is an interesting matchup. Cuz on one hand... the Chargers defense is ALL the way back. They got Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman back and they are playing lights out.
But the strength has been the pass rush. Nobody can throw the ball on this team.
So Trevor Lawrence is gonna really struggle to throw the ball in this game. Keep in mind, they're missing receiving weapons. They're also missing Anton Harrison at RT.
Trevor Lawrence has not handled pressure well.
Here's the thing... the Jags aren't even trying to throw it. They have one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the NFL.
And the Chargers defense might be going off right now... but let's not forget that just a few games ago, they played another efficient rushing attack that likes to work out of play-action. The Colts cooked them.
I think the move is to take Jacksonville here. I bet the Chargers last week... that was at home, under a FG, against a Steelers team that can't run the ball. They were gonna drop Rodgers back to pass against this pass rush. Now they're going on the road, laying an even bigger number to a team that CAN run the ball? With that offensive line?
SEAHAWKS @ RAMS - 4 PM
Here we go... Seahawks have jumped out to 28-0 leads in back to back games. Both of these teams have been off to fast starts. Cooper Kupp revenge.
We know the run's probably not gonna be there for Seattle. Rams have one of the best run defenses in the NFL and Seattle's been pretty inconsistent on the ground.
C Sundell is gonna miss this one and Tory Horton.
Darnold > JSN looks like an unstoppable force... but the Rams have done an excellent job limiting downfield throws. The way to give this Rams defense problems is to dink and dunk... that's not what we've seen from Darnold.
That's why we've seen Mac Jones have a couple decent games against the Rams. Dinkin and dunkin... outside of the SF games, nobody's really thrown the ball successfully on the Rams all year.
The Rams might have the best pass rush in the NFL... 1st in time to pressure. Darnold has excellent numbers under pressure this year.
Who are the two best pass rushes Darnold has seen this year? Pittsburgh and Houston... those were his two worst games of the season.
The other side of the ball is a bit tougher.
Nobody's been able to move the chains on the ground against Seattle's defensive front... and I don't imagine the Rams will also. Ernest Jones IV posted something on instagram that was pointing towards him playing.
Also... Seattle's pass rush is gonna be a problem in this game. They should win the battles against the Rams offensive line. Matt Stafford gets the ball out quickly, which has helped them. But this defensive line might be the best in the NFL.
The only pushback I have on Seattle's defense is the secondary. I think we all perceive this secondary to be great. But the truth is... when has this unit been tested?
Let's not forget that Baker Mayfield ripped this secondary to shreds.
If I knew Davante Adams was playing, I would lay the 3.
I think 3 is perfect... so I can't pick a side at 3. I'd bet the Rams at 2.5 and I'd bet the Seahawks at 4.5. I do think the total's a bit high with these two defenses. So I'll pick UNDER 48.5.
49ERS @ CARDINALS - 4 PM
This is the healthiest San Francisco's offense has been all year.
The Cardinals defense is not getting healthier.
And the injuries are definitely catching up on em. They're really struggling against the run. They're missing their top 4 corners. As long as Brock Purdy is 80% of his old self, this should be the perfect matchup for him to get back on his feet.
On the other side of the ball, same story. Cardinals are crushed with injuries.
49ers are getting Bryce Huff back. I'm not sure if that solves their pass rush problem completely though.
This might actually be a matchup where the 49ers can generate some pressure. The Cardinals have one of the worst rated pass protections in the NFL and Jonah Williams being out at OT.
Cardinals offense has been pretty efficient since Brissett took over, but the injuries are tough and the 49ers are pretty well coached.
It would only be SF for me here but I feel -3.5 is probably the right number.
RAVENS @ BROWNS - 4 PM
The Ravens are 1-3 S/U in their last 3 trips to Cleveland. (But two of those were without Lamar Jackson). Lamar Jackson is 1-1 in his last two trips. He's played well though. 4 TD 0 INT / 115.8 passer rating in his last two trips to Cleveland.
Baltimore's run game seems to be back... and if Lamar Jackson is getting run support, this is a very difficult team to beat.
This is gonna be a challenge though... we're talking about arguably the best run defense in the NFL... and this is also in Cleveland, where the Browns defense is always a problem.
The Browns are allowing less than 14 PPG at home so far this year.
Remember... the Ravens couldn't run the ball on Cleveland earlier in the season. They blew em out but the run wasn't there. Baltimore only had 242 yards of offense in this game. The Ravens were gifted the ball inside the 10. They had a blocked punt TD and a fumble return TD. Add in some nasty weather?
On the other side, I legitimately think the Browns have the worst offense in the NFL. But I think they can win the battle on the LOS.
Dillon Gabriel was sacked 6 times last week against the Jets. The Ravens have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. They're not very disruptive. We should see a simple offensive gameplan here from Stefanski... alotta downhill running.
This is gonna be a nasty one... weather really levels the playing field. LOS battles are huge.
CHIEFS @ BRONCOS - 4 PM
Kansas City has not covered the number in years in this building.
This might be the best offense in the NFL against the best defense in the NFL.
The Broncos have been lights out on this side of the ball.
Patrick Mahomes hasn't played a good game on the road yet this year. Their only win away from Arrowhead this year was against the Russell Wilson Giants.
Denver's gonna be running man coverage... Mahomes does not have great numbers against man this year.
On the other side of the ball, Denver's offense isn't good... but the Chiefs have gotten run on this year... especially in their road games.
Denver's offensive line can win the battles up front.
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