NFL Week 10 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- Nov 9
- 12 min read
FALCONS @ COLTS - 9:30 AM
Well if you're a Colts fan, I really don't think there's any reason to lose confidence in the team. The story of last week's loss was turnovers. They turned the ball over 6 times. In terms of efficiency, The Colts were significantly better than the Steelers last week on both sides of the ball.
The offense should get right back on track here. Atlanta's defense has struggled to stop the run all year. Should be a good matchup for Jonathan Taylor.
Atlanta had good looking numbers against the run last week... but New England doesn't run the ball. They were getting consistently run on for weeks before that.
Getting Zach Harrison and Billy Bowman Jr. back helps. But they really need Deablo back.
I expect the Colts to run the ball early and often. Atlanta blitzes a lot. And we just saw this Colts team continuously drop Daniel Jones back to pass against the Steelers heavy pressure. Shane Steichen said in the postgame that the offense coulda been more balanced in the first half.
As far as Daniel Jones throwing the ball, the Falcons defense against the pass hasn't looked great in the last two.
But through the first 6 games, the numbers against the pass looked great. Did they just play some bad QBs? Colts are gonna move the chains... not sure about explosives. After all those turnovers, I would imagine we'll see a more conservative gameplan from Steichen.
On the other side of the ball, we've got an interesting matchup.
So first, let's give credit to the Colts defense. They played a great game against Pittsburgh.
But they lost DeForest Buckner.
The question is.. do we trust the Falcons offense to exploit that? This team just can't seem to get Bijan Robinson going recently.
And the Colts defense has been elite against the run the last few games. Now they didn't play anybody that can run the ball... we know the Colts run defense isn't this good. And now Buckner's out.
Add on the fact that the Falcons offensive line is banged up? I'm not even sure if I trust the Falcons to run the ball here.
As far as Penix, the Colts pass rush hasn't been anything special this year and you'd have to think it's even worse without Buckner. Penix should have clean pockets to throw from.
He's really struggled with man coverage so far this year though. And the Colts have Sauce Gardner. Now I'm sure he won't be fully implemented into the defense yet... but he can still play man coverage. He can come in on 3rd and 7 and guard Drake London.
I know everyone's gonna hate this pick but I'm kinda thinking under in this game. I think we're gonna see a lot of running. I think the Falcons blitz packages are gonna keep Steichen in a pretty conservative gameplan. I think the Colts control this game on the ground.
UNDER 48.5
BROWNS @ JETS - 1 PM
So we've got the Browns offense... the worst offense in the NFL... against the Jets defense who just traded off two of their best players.
So Cleveland took Quinshon Judkins off the injury report so that's a positive. They're gonna be without Isaiah Bond but they might be getting Cedric Tillman back. He hasn't played since September.
Here's our first look at this new Jets defense.
I really don't have much to say on this side of the ball. The Jets pass rush was already seriously lacking. Without Quinnan Williams, it's obviously going to be worse. Dillon Gabriel should have plenty of time to work here.
On the other side of the ball, Aaron Glenn is once again not letting us know who's gonna be starting at QB. I would imagine it's going to be Justin Fields, considering the last time we saw the Jets they scored 39 points and won.
Remember, the Jets defense got gutted... but the offense is still in tact. In fact, they might actually be getting Garrett Wilson back for this game.
Now you might think... who cares? They're playing the Browns defense. And I think that's a fair point. Cleveland's defense hasn't been as elite recently though.
Browns might be missing Schwesinger, who might be just a rookie but he actually leads the team in tackles.
Even without him though, it's tough to envision the Jets running the ball much in this game. Cleveland's defensive line just doesn't get pushed off the ball much.
I actually think Tyrod Taylor gives the Jets a better chance in this one. He tends to get the ball out quickly where Justin Fields is known to hold onto it too long. Against this Cleveland pass rush, we're gonna want to see the ball out quickly.
We might have some weather situations in this one. Chance of rain... little windy.
I guess under? I'm not gonna lay points on the road with the worst offense in the league. But the idea of counting on the Jets offense to move the ball against this defense is crazy.
SAINTS @ PANTHERS - 1 PM
Well right off the bat, we know the Saints should really struggle to run the ball here. The offensive line is depleted. They've got an undrafted rookie starting at LG now because they traded Penning.
I know we've seen the Panthers front 7 get bullied a bit in their last two games, but I think we should see Carolina show us some of that tough run defense we saw earlier in the season here.
If you're betting New Orleans here, you're really banking on Tyler Shough having his best game. Obviously, these numbers look crazy. We're dealing with an extremely small sample size. His only career start was on the road against the Rams who might have the best defense in the NFL right now.
Carolina's defense is completely healthy. The home environment should be awesome. The Panthers are above .500, coming off a huge upset win over Green Bay. I think the table's set for a great defensive game for the Panthers.
The other side of the ball is a bit more interesting. The Saints defense hasn't been nearly as bad as the offense... and we know Carolina's offense can be up and down.
The Panthers are still really thin at guard, but Rico Dowdle has been taken off the injury report.
The Saints defense got smoked last week by the Rams, but I'm a little worried about this game right here the previous week. This is the only division game New Orleans has played so far this year. So the only time the Saints played a division game, the defense was lights out.
One of the Saints strengths defensively has been staying on the LOS. This defensive line doesn't get blown off the ball like that.
Where the Saints defense has struggled is in the pass rush. This team really has had trouble generating pressure. But Bryce Young is one of the worst QBs in the NFL under pressure so far this year.
Canales said he wants to throw the ball more. Remember, they were in Lambeau last week and it was windy as hell. He made comments about trying to get Jalen Coker involved. Against a Saints defense that doesn't generate pressure, this should be a good opportunity to do that. But New Orleans runs a lotta 1H safety looks, a lot of cover 3. Bryce Young hasn't had much success throwing the ball on those coverages this year.
Over 40% of the Saints defensive snaps this year have been in Cover 3. Look at Bryce Young's numbers against cover 3.
Carolina's the considerably better team and there's no way I'd take the Saints unless I was getting 7 or more. But I don't like the matchup enough for Carolina to lay a big number. And I can't take an under... cuz I think we're gonna see some throwing the ball in this game and both these teams move at a fast pace.
I guess I'll say Carolina -5.5 but I hate it.
BILLS @ DOLPHINS - 1 PM
So Buffalo has dominated the Dolphins... but Miami covers the number all the time. They covered earlier this season.
So I guess the question is... is there a hangover period here for Buffalo after the huge win over KC. And does it matter... cuz they're playing Miami. The Dolphins defense has played much better recently. They held the Ravens to 100 yards of offense in the 1st half. They kept shooting themselves in the foot in that game.
Buffalo's got the run working right now... even in their loss to Atlanta, the run was working. Miami's been slightly better against the run recently but it's tough to see this offense getting stopped.
The Bills offense is completely healthy.
On the other side of the ball, the matchup's a little more interesting. Buffalo does struggle against the run and the Dolphins can run the ball.
It's not out of the question that Miami can run the ball in this game.
The offensive line is still a trainwreck. That's not new. That's been the case all season.
Buffalo's defense is dealing with some key injuries right now.
The Bills have been pretty consistently run on. They're coming off the biggest game of the year. They're injured... going on the road against a team that's desperate to make a statement. I think Miami can run the ball in this game.
Let's not forget that the Dolphins offense has been much better at home. That's not unique to this season either. That's been the case with Tua the last few years.
So I like both offenses to move the ball, but I still think the total is a bit high here. I think we're gonna see a lot of running... both teams are slow-paced.
Gimme the under 50.5 and Miami +9.5.
JAGUARS @ TEXANS - 1 PM
I'm skipping this game. I bet Houston -2.5. Fairbairn is out too so idk if we can rely on em to kick FGs.
Jags are injured also.
RAVENS @ VIKINGS - 1 PM
Vikings made a huge statement last week. Road win at Detroit will certainly turn some heads.
I think we can erase our concerns about the Vikings run defense. It was looking shaky early in the season. But it's starting to look more like the run defense we saw last year.0
They're gonna need it in this one... because Baltimore's been running the ball. Lamar Jackson didn't even play in two of these games and they've still been running the ball.
Baltimore's coming into this one fully healthy... with extra rest. They're playing pissed off. This team is 3-5... there were people talking about their season being over.
Here's the prime matchup right here. Nobody blitzes as much as Brian Flores and the Vikings defense. Nobody generates pressure faster than Brian Flores and the Vikings defense. But... nobody handles the blitz better than Lamar Jackson... and nobody handles pressure better than Lamar Jackson.
And we should mention that Baltimore's offense isn't the only unit coming into this one healthier. Van Ginkel's back. Blake Cashman's back. Jeff Okudah's injured and gonna miss this one... but this Vikings defense also seems to be peaking right now.
On the other side of the ball, this is where I think Baltimore has the edge. Ravens are playing some defense right now.
This Baltimore defense has come around.
Now let's give the Vikings offense some credit. They played well last week. I'm a little less inclined to believe in this data point.
And on top of that, the QB problem isn't solved. They were running the ball.. but JJ McCarthy was not efficient throwing the ball... so even though they played a good game, until the Vikings show me that they're gonna be able to utilize those elite receiving weapons, I still don't trust this offense.
I know Baltimore hasn't shown us much of a pass rush... but they do send timely blitzes. JJ McCarthy has struggled to read them so far this year. He has a tendency to hold onto the football. He hasn't taken advantage when he's had clean pockets.
I think the Ravens are gonna play a great defensive game here. The injuries to the defensive line are huge... but there's so much talent in this secondary... between them and Roquon Smith, they just have so many playmakers.
I'm on Baltimore in this one and I did take it.
PATRIOTS @ BUCCANEERS - 1 PM
Ok right off the bat, I kinda like this matchup for New England. Bucs are elite against the run... but that doesn't really decipher it from any other week for the Patriots. They can't run the ball on anybody. New England is a pass-first offense all the way. Which plays into the weakness of the Bucs defense.
I really don't like how the Patriots are missing Kayshon Boutte though. He leads the team in TD catches and has been a really nice target for Maye.
But is missing a WR enough to stop this? This guy's been on absolute rampage. He hasn't played a bad football game since Week 1 against the Raiders.
Now we know Todd Bowles is gonna be sending blitzes at him and is gonna generate some pressure. But who were Drake Maye's last two opponents? Cleveland and Atlanta. Drake Maye just saw an elite pass rush and a team that blitzes nonstop... that didn't stop him from playing well.
There is a slight difference though. In the Cleveland matchup, the Browns defensive line was winning the battles... but the Browns offense was so bad that eventually the Patriots just got opportunities. New England kicked a FG to go into halftime up 9-7.
That game was at home. If the offense struggles early like that again this week, the score is most likely not gonna be 9-7... cuz Baker Mayfield is gonna put points up.
I've been very vocal about how I don't think this Patriots secondary is very good right now. Michael Penix has been struggling with efficiency all season. He had a pretty efficient game throwing the ball last week in New England.
New England's also gonna be missing a key piece of their defense here in Christian Elliss. He's 2nd on the team in tackles.
Now Tampa has no room to talk when it comes to injuries. But we're not talking about the struggling Falcons offense, or the Browns offense, or the Titans offense. This is Baker Mayfield coming off a bye week, getting hit RT back.
Patriots pass rush hasn't been anything special. Baker should have clean pockets to throw from.
And what's been the story with this New England defense? Elite against the run... great closing time on underneath throws. But they're really struggled in coverage on downfield throws. Baker loves throwing the ball downfield. In fact, he's one of the most efficient deep ball thrower in the NFL this season.
I'm on Tampa here. I think this number should be a full 3. New England's been great... but they've benefited from an easy schedule. They also still haven't had a bye week and Tampa's well rested.
GIANTS @ BEARS - 1 PM
Bears are about to run the ball all over the Giants. It's kind of happening under the radar here... but Ben Johnson has the Bears as a top 10 rushing offense... and the Giants can't stop anybody on the ground.
Look at the Bears rushing numbers in the last 4 games. Swift didn't even play in the last one. Didn't matter.
D'Andre Swift might be back for this one too... but Monangai went off last game. They're also getting Luther Burden back.
Now the Bears have played some bad defenses... but have you seen the Giants try and stop the run? They're the worst run defense in the NFL and honestly... it seems to be getting worse.
The Giants defense might be a bit healthier which is definitely a plus.
I still don't think the Giants can stop the Bears from running the ball... but let's pretend they can. Caleb Williams might piece this injury ridden secondary up. He always plays better at home in Chicago... and the Giants run man coverage over 40% of the time. Caleb Williams is actually nice against man coverage.
We haven't seen Caleb Williams play many home games recently. I like the matchup for Chicago's offense. I think they can control the game on the ground and I think it's a good matchup for Caleb throwing the ball also.
On the other side of the ball, this is where I'm a bit more torn. I don't think this Bears defense is very good... but I also don't think the Giants offense is very good.
We've got key injuries on both sides here. Bears are gonna be missing TJ Edwards again... who's one of their main tacklers and pieces against the run. They're also missing an edge rusher.
Giants just lost their center... uncertain if they're getting Eluemunor back either.
The Bears run defense has been better the last few games... but those were the games where TJ Edwards was back.
We saw the Giants play one game without Scattebo... and they were running the ball.
The Bears have also struggled to generate pressure. They can be disruptive with blitz packages at times but as a whole, it's not a good pass rush.... and Dart has been effective from a clean pocket.
But the Bears can run man coverage... Dart's struggled against man and what Giants WRs are even capable of making the Bears pay for it?
I like the Bears to move the ball in this game... as far as the Giants offense? I really dk. I'll take Bears -4.5 and over 46.5.
CARDINALS @ SEAHAWKS - 4 PM
WHOLE CARDINALS SECONDARY IS COOKED. I'M ON SEATTLE.
LIONS @ COMMANDERS - 4 PM
Do we need to see anything more than this?
Especially considering how it happened? Minnesota came into their house and bullied em? Ran the ball between the tackles on em? Dan Campbell has probably been putting hit foot in this team's ass all week.
Now Washington's offense hasn't been as bad as the final scores show... but it hasn't been good either.
And on the other side of the ball, it's tough to see Washington's defense making stops in this one. Detroit's gonna hand the ball off and I'm just not sure what they're able to do about it.
Washington took those injuries to the defensive line and just hasn't been the same.
Look at their last 4 games.
I don't think they have the pieces to play their normal man coverage against Detroit's weapons. Jared Goff's got absolutely elite numbers against man coverage this year.
We've seen the Lions play a much slower pace in their road games. I think they can hold onto the ball for long stretches and keep Washington's offense on the sideline.
Comments