NFL Props: Sunday Week 18
Came back down to earth yesterday with a 1-2 day.
Clarkson ending on the hook was beyond painful, while the Mckinnon play was truly piss.
Can't dwell on the past, got my top 3 plays for NFL Sunday, let's end the season strong!
DESHAUN WATSON OV 207.5 PASSING YARDS (-110) | 1U FANDUEL
I KNOW SOME WILL SAY, THERE IS NO WAY I’M BETTING ON THIS BUM ASS WEIRDO DESHAUN WATSON, AND I COMPLETELY GET THAT. I DO
BUT CAN WE ADMIT THE GUY HAS PLAYED IN SOME TRULY AWFUL CONDITIONS FOR PRODUCTION TO START THE YEAR
1ST GAME WAS @ HOUSTON IN HIS FIRST START SINCE 2020, THEN HE PLAYS BALTIMORE IN THE FREEZING COLD AND THE RAVENS RUN THE CLOCK THE ENTIRE GAME
THEN HE PLAYS THE SAINTS AND IT’S A FULL BLOWN BLIZZARD
AND THEN FINALLY HE PLAYS THE COMMANDERS AND WITH CARSON WENTZ GIFTING TURNOVERS THEY HAD BEAUTIFUL FIELD POSITION AND THREW JUST 18 TIMES IN A BLOWOUT
BUT WHAT WAS NOTABLE TO ME WAS THE 9.38 Y/A AND 4 PASSES OF 20+ YARDS. W/ MORE ATTEMPTS HE WOULD’VE FLOWN OVER VS WASHINGTON
NOW HE’S PLAYING THE STEELERS AND THEY HAVE DONE A GREAT JOB OF KEEPING CHUBB IN CHECK HOLDING HIM TO LESS THAN 72 YPG ON AVG IN HIS CAREER
THERE IS NO REASON TO FORCE FEED THE GUY AND IN FACT I READ THAT JEROME FORD MAY BE IN LINE FOR MORE LOOKS IN THIS GAME
AND I THINK THE STEELERS PASS DEFENSE IS OVERVALUED RIGHT NOW DUE TO THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE PLAYED SOME SERIOUSLY LACKLUSTER QBS LATELY
THE L6 QBS THEY FACED? HUNTLEY, CARR, DARNOLD, HUNTLEY, MARIOTA, AND MATT RYAN
SO HOW HAVE QBS WITH TALENT DONE AGAINST THEM? BURROW HAD 330+ TWICE, ALLEN HAD 424, HURTS HAD 285, AND TUA HAD 261
THE GAME TOTAL STARTED AT 39 ON MOST BOOKS AND MOVED TO 40.5 DESPITE MOST OF THE MONEY ON THE UNDER, I THINK WATSON GET’S GOING HERE AND WE’RE GETTING A HUGE DISCOUNT BASED ON HIS CAREER NUMBERS
WOULD PLAY TO 211.5 FOR 1U
CAM AKERS OV 72.5 RUSH YARDS (-115) | 1U BETMGM
THE RAMS HAVE MADE IT ABUNDANTLY CLEAR THAT THEY PLAN ON POUNDING THE ROCK WITH CAM AKERS NO MATTER WHAT W/ ALL THE INJURIES THEY HAVE AND THAT’S LEADING TO BIG PRODUCTION
OBVIOUSLY, IN THE BLOWOUT WIN AGAINST THE BRONCOS, HE GOT FED, BUT EVEN IN A BLOWOUT LOSS TO THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, AKERS HAD 19 ATTEMPTS
AS A RESULT, HE’S COMING OFF TWO STRAIGHT 118+ YARD PERFORMANCES AND I TRULY THINK HE CAN MAKE IT 3 TODAY
SO HOW HAVE RUNNINGBACKS DONE W/ SIMILAR VOLUME VS SEATTLE?
WELL W/ 17+ RUSH ATTEMPTS VS SEATTLE, RBS ARE 8-2 TO THE OVER (AVG 106.5)
AND IN AKERS’ 6 REGULAR SZN GAMES W/ 17+ ATTEMPTS, HE IS 4-2 TO THE OVER (AVG 96.3)
YES ONE COULD LOOK AT THIS AS A PLAYOFF GAME FOR SEATTLE, BUT THIS ALSO MAY BE THE LAST GAME MCVAY COACHES IN THE NFL
I THINK HIS TEAM PULLS TOGETHER FOR HIM HERE AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLAYS SPOILER W/ AKERS LEADING THE WAY ON THE GROUND
WOULD PLAY TO 75.5 FOR 1U
TERRY MCLAURIN UNDER 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110) | .75U FANDUEL
SCARY TERRY IS A DAWG AND ONE OF THE BEST RECEIVERS IN FOOTBALL BUT SIMPLY PUT, THERE IS WAY TOO MUCH WORKING AGAINST HIM TO HIT THIS LINE AGAINST DALLAS
FIRST OFF SAM HOWELL IS AT QB, I DON’T REMOTELY TRUST THIS KID BEHIND THE COMMANDERS HORRIBLE OFFENSIVE LINE AGAINST THE DALLAS PASS RUSH
AND WHILE YOU MAY SEE THE COMMANDERS AS 7-POINT DOGS AND ARGUE THAT THE COMMANDERS WILL HAVE TO PASS A LOT, DOES IT EVEN MATTER?
THE COMMANDERS HAVE LOST 3 STRAIGHT AGAINST DALLAS BY AN AVG OF 21 POINTS AND GUESS WHAT TERRY HAS PUT UP IN THAT SPAN?
0, 40, AND 15 RECEIVING YARDS FOR AN AVG OF 18.33
NOW W/ SAM HOWELL AT QB WE EXPECT HIM TO IMPROVE UPON THESE NUMBERS?
TREVON DIGGS SHUTS DOWN STARS RECEIVERS, SIMPLY PUT. W/ THE EXCEPTION OF AJ BROWN IN A GAME WHERE HE WAS SICK HE HELD THE GROUP OF CHASE, MCLAURIN, JEFFERSON, PITTMAN, AND ST-BROWN TO AN AVG OF JUST 24.4 REC YARDS AND JUST ONE HIT THIS TOTAL
THANKFULLY FOR US, THE EAGLES PLAY AT THE SAME TIME AS THE COWBOYS, SO DALLAS WILL LIKELY PLAY THEIR STARTERS FOR THE MAJORITY OR ENTIRETY OF THE GAME
AND WHEN DISCUSSING IT THIS WEEK, IT SEEMS RON WILL CONSIDER RESTING STARTERS IF THIS GETS OUT OF HAND WHICH I THINK IT WILL
THIS LINE MOVED A WHOLE 6 YARDS ON MOST BOOKS WHICH IS ANNOYING CUZ I POSTED AT 54.5 FOR 1 UNIT, BUT I WOULD STILL HAPPILY PLAY 49.5 AT .75U