NFL Playoffs 1/11

Kyle Kirms
17 hours ago
6 min read

BILLS @ JAGUARS - 1 PM

Bracket.

Both of these teams have success in this round. These two teams have two of the top 3 largest playoff comeback wins ever. In 1993, the Bills were down 35-3 and came back to beat the Oilers. Then just a few years ago in 2022, Trevor Lawrence was down 27-0 to Justin Herbert and the Chargers... they came back to win that game.

McDermott's had problems with these. In fact, the Bills haven't won a road playoff game since 1993. They've lost 8 in a row. One of the losses was in 2017 at Jacksonville. The QB matchup in that one was Tyrod Taylor against Blake Bortles.

The Bills haven't won a game in Jacksonville since 2013 (they've only been here twice in that span).

Same graphic from yesterday.

Trevor Lawrence actually has a winning record against Josh Allen.

Betting on Jacksonville has been a goldmine recently. Longest Jags winning streak since 1999.

So who has the edge on this side of the ball?

Jacksonville's defense has been excellent.

Bills offense is in good shape. Gabe Davis is also here looking for revenge.

First question is... can Jacksonville stop the run? Because that's what Buffalo wants to do. That's the Joe Brady offense... run-first... rock you to sleep with the run game until you commit... then go overtop with Josh Allen.

Jacksonville's been rock solid against the run recently. They had that one game against Davis Mills where they blew the big lead and have been elite ever since.

The Bills are 8-1 when James Cook has 100 yards rushing... but the Jags haven't allowed an RB to reach 75 yards all season.

Look at the Bills last 4 road games.

And when it comes to this hot streak the Jags defense has shown us... what rushing attacks have they seen?

And honestly... same goes for their secondary. Jacksonville's got elite numbers against the pass recently... against what QBs?

I gotta say though... it's not like Josh Allen has been setting the world on fire.

Jags run a ton of Cover 3, Cover 4 and Cover 6. During this 8 game winning streak, 72% of their defensive snaps were in 1 of those 3 coverages.

Bad news.

On the other side, I guess you'd have to say Jacksonville has the advantage?

This Jacksonville offense is weird. It's completely come alive in the 2nd half of the season.

Here's where it gets weird... the run game has disappeared. They were running the ball early in the season. They haven't been able to run the ball recently.

What's happened is... Trevor Lawrence has turned into a hall of famer.

First question... what defenses have they played? Have they hit an easy stretch of schedule?

Even in the Denver game, this offense was working. Yes turnovers and terrible mistakes by Denver also played a part... but the Jags offense was moving the ball in this game. So even though they have played a bit of an easy schedule, I think we gotta give the Jags offense some respect.

Offense is in good shape.

Buffalo's defense is a bit banged up. Shaq Thompson is trending towards playing. DT Jordan Phillips is also out.

Buffalo's defense actually has been better against the run... and Jacksonville has struggled to run the ball... so maybe there's a path to the Bills keeping the Jags in check on the ground.

The Bills have done a great job against the run in 4 of their last 6 games.

Now as far as Trevor Lawrence... he's been great... but nobody really throws the ball on Buffalo. Their problem is stopping the run.

Bills and under 51.5.

49ERS @ EAGLES - 4:30 PM

Bracket.

Shanahan had some words for the good city of Philadelphia.

49ers fans that traveled tried to organize a 49ers pregame event.

Wild Card round.

Last playoff meeting. Both Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Brock Purdy were injured. Josh Johnson was playing QB.

SF got their revenge though.

This matchup should be even. Vic Fangio is 2-0 against Kyle Shanahan... as DC of San Francisco when Shanahan was with the then Washington Redskins in 2011 and 2013.

But the lead story is Trent Williams. He's saying he's confident he's gonna play.

SF just doesn't win football games without this guy.

We got a glimpse of it last week... it was awful.

Now I know that was against the Seahawks defense. But it was also at home... this Eagles defense is pretty strong and this is January in nasty ass cold ass Philadelphia.

This Eagles defense really tightened up down the stretch too.

Eagles defense is in great shape, health wise too.

Brock Purdy... in this wind... against the Philly pass rush. I would imagine they'll try to run the ball cuz Philadelphia had problems with the run earlier in the season.

On the other side of the ball... as bad as the Eagles offense has been, I still have to give the edge to Philadelphia.

Remember... there was a ton of luck involved in Seattle only scoring 13 points last week.

The 49ers defense has been consistently bad for 3 months... specifically against the run.

And now they're even more injured. Bethune, Winters and Gifford all got injured in the Seattle game. Eric Kendricks is the No. 1 remaining LB on this team if those guys don't play. Neither has practiced.

Now we still don't know if Lane Johnson is gonna return for the Eagles and that's huge.

I know the Eagles have had all kinds of problems trying to run the ball this year... but now that they've seen some shittier defenses, we are finally seeing the run game getting going... and against a 49ers defense that's been run on all year maybe missing their top 4 LBs? Yeah I think we can count on Philly running the ball here.

And in terms of Jalen Hurts... what's another thing we know about the 49ers defense? They can't create pressure. Their best pass rusher is Bryce Huff (former Eagle)... he hasn't recorded a sack since October 19th.

I bet Eagles at -3.

CHARGERS @ PATRIOTS - 8:15 PM

Bracket.

Same graphics. Chargers 0-3 against New England since 2000. All 3 were Brady vs Rivers.

New England a ton of success in the playoffs... but they're just 4-6 in Wild Card games. Chargers 6-4.

Chargers have never won a playoff game in New England.

Who has the advantage on this side of the ball?

Chargers offense is in good shape.

Patriots defense is in better shape also. Spillane hasn't played since 12/1.

The thing is... can we trust this Patriots defense to stop the run? I don't think there was a bigger 180 turnaround than the Patriots defense against the run.

They didn't just fall off a little bit...

Now I know we don't consider the Chargers to be a dangerous rushing attack... but they're not terrible... and if you isolate it to just the Hampton games, it's not that bad.

As far as Justin Herbert throwing the ball in Foxborough here.. I'm not sure. The weather's supposed to be ok.

The Patriots pass rush is gonna be a problem. Their season long numbers don't look that great... but they were generating pressure at a higher rate in the 2nd half of the season.

The Patriots have great defensive numbers against the pass... but against who? Just 3 of their last 11 games were against non-rookie starting QBs.

The thing is... I'm not sure how much I trust the Chargers passing attack right now. Justin Herbert has never won a playoff game. He threw 4 INTs to Houston last year and blew a 27-0 lead the year before.

What about the other side?

Patriots banged up at WR.

Chargers defense in good shape.

We have to look at New England's offense a bit differently... they couldn't run the ball efficiently at all for most of the season... but in the last 5 games, it's really come on.