Friday CFB - Conference Championships

Kyle Kirms
3 days ago
7 min read

CONFERENCE USA KENNESAW STATE @ JACKSONVILLE STATE - 7 PM

Jacksonville State looking to go back to back.

Jacksonville State's the 1 seed... which means this is a home game for them and that's huge.

One of those wins was against Kennesaw State. This final score is a bit misleading though. Kennesaw State turned the ball over 4 times in this game to zero for Jacksonville State... and also, 8 of Jacksonville State's points came on a hail mary on the last play of the 1st half that deflected up and somehow landed right in the WRs hands for a TD and 2PC.

RECORD ATTENDANCE 24,166. THEY RESCHEDULED BASKETBALL GAMES.

But still... what did we see a lot of in that game? Jacksonville State doing what they did to everyone else in this building... running the ball.

That wasn't a one game thing... Jacksonville State has run the ball like that all season. Kennesaw State CB Caleb Offord who's one of the leaders of that defense was carted off and taken off on a stretcher and rushed to the hospital in the JSU game. We thought he was gonna be out for the season... he only missed 1 game and just played against Liberty last week! JSU RT Reggie Jackson is listed as questionable. He was questionable last week against WKU and he did take place in pregame warmups but ended up not playing. JSU WR Brock Rechsteiner should be back after missing the WKU game.

I don't see any reason to think Jacksonville State can't do that again. Kennesaw State has a great defensive line... but for some reason, the run defense has fallen off at the end of this season. Cam Cook and Caden Creel together kinda has a Riley Leonard / Jeremiah Love feel to it from Notre Dame last year. Cam Cook leads the country in rushing with about 1600 yards... and Caden Creel has 720 rush yards in the last 4 games.

The question is... are they able to make stops? JSU DL Jawaun Campbell has been out the last 3 weeks and is questionable.

Remember, Kennesaw State turned the ball over 4 times in their last meeting. They were moving the ball. Jacksonville State did a decent job against the run... but they couldn't stop Amari Odom from connecting on throws.

The two games since that Jacksonville State game, we've seen Amari Odom lighting it up.

Jacksonville State does blitz a lot... and look at that TWP rate. Odom threw 3 INTs in the last matchup. Jacksonville State's pass rush has been much better than Liberty's and Missouri State's.

It's unrealistic to think Jacksonville State can just shut down Kennesaw's offense... but this team just wins football games. They're more disciplined... they play great in this building.

I'm on Jacksonville State. I disagree with the market. I'm on +1.5.

SUN BELT

TROY @ JAMES MADISON - 7 PM

If you're wondering why we're seeing a point spread like this in a conference championship game... well there's a couple of reasons. First one being that James Madison is about that life. They've won 4 of their last 6 games by 30+ points.

But also... James Madison is still very much alive in the CFB Playoff race here. They're currently sitting on top of both North Texas and Tulane in the AP Polls. These odds are showing that a win in the American Conference would jump James Madison, even if they beat Troy.

So we do need to talk about what's going on with Bob Chesney. So apparently, he's set to sign a contract to be UCLA's next head coach immediately after this conference championship game. Does this have any effect?

In terms of this matchup, based on this graphic, Troy shouldn't score a single point in this game... but there actually might be a path. LT Elijah Prather and RT Garner Langlo have both been out for multiple weeks. No indication on whether they'll return for the conference championship game.

But I'm not sure if we should just sleep on this Troy team. Since Goose Crowder has returned from injury and got his starting job back, they've won back to back games.

And Crowder's been slinging it. He's thrown 7 TDs in two games since returning from injury. Rara Thomas had a big game last week. Troy might have a passing attack we have to respect right now.

James Madison loves sending extra rushers... well Goose Crowder's got elite look numbers against the blitz so far this year.

This James Madison defense is such a step above anything else in the Sun Belt Conference... so it's difficult to expect Troy to do much.

The only thing this defense has struggled with this season is they've been susceptible to big plays... Troy has connected on some big plays. JMU might be missing LB Gannon Weathersby for this one. He didn't play last week against Coastal. He's the 4th leading tackler on the team.

On the other side of the ball, Troy can definitely put up a fight. James Madison is an offense that wants to run the ball and Troy's defensive front is the best in the conference outside of James Madison.

Southern Miss has a pretty strong offense... Troy just went on the road and shut em down in the biggest game of the season. This is gonna be the toughest defense James Madison has seen since Old Dominion.

Barnett also doesn't have the most efficient numbers throwing the ball recently.

This is the least interesting conference championship game. I don't hate an over... JMU needs style points so even if they have a big lead, I still think we'll see them actively trying to score. Troy should be throwing the ball and they move at a decent pace. OVER 47.5 OR PASS.

AMERICAN ATHLETIC

NORTH TEXAS @ TULANE - 8 PM

So Tulane gets another shot. They're back in the conference championship for the 4th straight year. They lost the last two though.

Sumrall will finish out the season... although apparently he announced his DC already.

They're matched up against North Texas who will have Eric Morris on the sideline. I gotta say... I like the vibes a bit better in North Texas. Apparently he was in tears on Senior Day and he really didn't like how the news broke and he wasn't able to tell his guys. He just seems more invested in the program whereas Sumrall, it seems like everything's about Florida.

Because these teams are above James Madison in the AP Polls, this means we're most likely about to watch a playoff game.

Winner of this game most likely plays Oregon. If Alabama beats Georgia or BYU beats Texas Tech, that could shake things up a bit.

In terms of the matchup... On paper, Tulane should really struggle to stop the North Texas offense. This has been a really disappointing season for Tulane defensively. EDGE Gerrod Henderson is out for the season and has been since Week 11. Also they're starting S Jack Tchienchou (2nd leading tackler) is listed as questionable. I'm not sure if he left the Charlotte game injured. He only played 27 snaps.

Betting North Texas games has been pretty straight forward this year.

Drew Mestemaker leads the entire country in passing and he's been on an absolute rampage. We do have to consider the opponents though.

If you rewind back to week 7, we did see Mestemaker struggle in the South Florida game. Tulane's defense might not be quite as good as South Florida's but it's closer to South Florida than those 6 recent teams.

I think the weather really favors Tulane. We're supposed to see some rain. North Texas wants to play a fast-paced run & gun type of offense with Mestemaker slinging the ball all over the field.

I'm not sure if I trust North Texas' offense quite as much if there's weather concerns. I don't think they can bully Tulane's defensive front 7. It's North Texas, it's not like they can't run the ball. They're gonna score points regardless... I just don't love the matchup for em if the weather's bad.

Where I worry for North Texas is on the defensive side of the ball. LB Shane Whitter (one of the team's leading tacklers) is out for the year. He's been out since November 1st. EDGE Briceon Hayes has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable. Their main DT Saadiq Clements didn't play last week and is listed as questionable. S Quinton Hammonds did play last week so it looks like he's back. TULN WR Bryce Bohanon is still out.

North Texas can't stop anybody on the ground.

This Tulane offense is pretty balanced. It's definitely had its ups and downs this year. They were running the ball a bit more early in the season and we've seen em throwing the ball more recently. But it's been consistently pretty good all season.

Retzlaff got off to a really slow start. They played a few power 4 opponents early in the season.

Once we got into conference play, we started seeing Retzlaff play better.

I don't believe North Texas is capable of stopping Tulane in this one.

Remember, North Texas didn't have a ton of tough road games. What's North Texas' toughest conference road game this year? Army?

If the weather's fine, I truly don't think you can make this total high enough. Both offenses should be scoring back and forth nonstop. As far as a side, I'm not sure how you make UNT a 2.5 point favorite at Yulman Stadium with that defense. I'm rooting for North Texas... but I can't lay 2.5.

MOUNTAIN WEST

UNLV @ BOISE STATE - 8 PM

So we've got UNLV Boise... again.

UNLV hasn't even covered the number since 2016.

I really don't have much interest in this one. UNLV's defense is terrible and can never be trusted... but to be honest, I don't trust the Boise offense much right now either.

This offense just isn't working. Now Madsen didn't play in the last 4 and he's set to return. So maybe everything's fixed now... but this offense has still been pretty disappointing this year.

Maddux was on the field in Week 8 when Boise put 56 points on UNLV's defense on this same field.

We do wanna give UNLV's defense some credit... they've actually looked strong in the last 4 games. They played Hawaii and Utah State in there also.

On the other side, I think we can count on UNLV's offense to score. Colandrea was just named MWC OPOY. Jet Thomas is fully healthy (he left the Boise game injured). Boise State's defense has been the strength of their team.