College Football Week 2 Saturday
- Kyle Kirms
- Sep 4
- 33 min read
Updated: Sep 5
Alotta action. I POSTED THIS BY ACCIDENT. I'M STILL ADDING TO IT.
SAN JOSE STATE @ TEXAS - 12 PM EST
San Jose State takes an unexpected opening L to Matt Drinkall. Central Michigan had the ball for over 33 minutes and averaged 4.3 YPC. They only dropped back to pass 13 times in the game.
We do have to point out... the final score wasn't exactly an indication of how that game went. Central Michigan jumped out to an early lead. Seems like SJSU just kinda got caught off-guard. Remember, everything about Central Michigan is new. New head coach... new offense. So, there coulda been an element of surprise that put SJSU in an early hole. Also, Eget threw 2 INTs (1 was in the endzone) and a fumble in their own territory turned into points. And on top of all that, San Jose State missed a FG that woulda won the game. So basically... SJSU gave that one away. I'm not gonna drop them in my power ratings (I didn't have them very high to begin with).
Coming off a game where Texas was just shut down offensively and Arch Manning struggled to throw the ball, it seems a run heavy attack is probably what's in store here. I don't expect San Jose State's defensive front to be THIS bad... but if they were struggling to get off the field against the Central Michigan offense, it's tough to envision them making stops against a pissed off Texas offense that's coming into this one with a chip on their shoulder.
There is some good news for San jose State. The passing attack was working a little bit and let's be honest... if it wasn't for those 2 interceptions, San Jose State wins that game easily. I have this one at 22.
FIU @ PENN STATE - 12 PM EST
Look, you don't want to overreact to Bethune. But, I do wanna say that FIU handled their business in week 1.
Obviously, that's meaningless information before going to Penn State. But it's certainly a nice data point for FIU as we get closer to CUSA play. Remember, this was an offense that took a lot of hits, especially on the offensive line. So to see them completely bully Bethune is definitely solid.
All that being said... they ain't doing shit in this one. Penn State could win by 40+ if they want.
No interest in this one.
ILLINOIS @ DUKE - 12 PM EST
Both these teams handled their business in week 1 without issue.
The question in every Illinois game is gonna be their opponent's defensive front. Are they able to hang tough against this offensive line? Bret Bielema is a coach that's known for producing NFL offensive linemen. This should definitely be a top 25 offensive line.
Good news for Duke, the defensive line is definitely a strength for this team. Aaron Hall and Josiah Green are gonna be one of the toughest DT duos in the country. At Wallace Wade Stadium... I really think Duke can keep from getting bullied off the line of scrimmage in this one. I don't love the linebackers... but they can put up a fight up front with the monsters on this Illinois offensive line.
Keep in mind, we were expecting a big defensive dropoff last season after Elko left and we just didn't see it. This is a tough matchup for the Illini offense.
Where Illinois needs to win this game is on the other side of the ball... because this defense has the ability to squeeze this offense from the outside. The entire secondary is back. All the linebackers are back with the exception of one... and the edge rushers are great. This is going to be an extremely difficult defense to throw the football on this year.
I'm not convinced that Mensah is a total upgrade over Murphy in terms of a thrower. He didn't throw the ball all that much last year. He had Makhi Hughes and an elite Tulane rushing attack... he had an elite Tulane defense. Just as a pure thrower, I think Mensah is a downgrade from Murphy.
If Duke wants to move the ball on this Illinois defense, they're gonna have to run the football.. and that's just not something they've shown us they can do. This team couldn't run the ball at all last season.
Now don't get me wrong... this offense is way better. Mensah's a lot more mobile than Murphy and the offensive line should be way better. But I'm not sure I trust Duke's rushing attack just yet. It was truly one of the worst in the country last season.
I make this game Duke +4.
BAYLOR @ SMU - 12 PM EST
Baylor's offense showed us some of that explosiveness against a very tough Auburn defense. That offense looks to be as good as advertised. The defense though... this is gonna be a concern for this Baylor team.
Auburn did whatever they wanted against this Baylor defense. The offensive line completely dominated. They rushed for 308 yards (Jackson Arnold accounted for 137 from the QB position). SMU's offensive line is not as elite as Auburn's... but this is still a very good offensive line.
The blueprint is laid... control the clock and keep Baylor's offense on the sidelines. SMU is capable of doing that. That's concerning. But on the other side of the ball... SMU's defense is definitely not Auburn's defense. SMU's an elite team... but the strength last year was the defensive line and they lost 4 pieces to the NFL.
SMU won't be putting near these defensive numbers up this season... meanwhile, Baylor's offensive numbers will probably be better.
I'm on Baylor. I have Baylor as short favorites here. I just grabbed a +4.
KENNESAW STATE @ INDIANA - 12 PM EST
Kennesaw State's new fast-paced spread offense didn't look nearly as bad as the final score indicates. In fact, it was working pretty well early on.
Now... are they able to move the ball on Indiana? Obviously, you would think no. Indiana just did a great job defensively against Old Dominion, a Sun Belt offense that I think is gonna be pretty strong this year. But here's the thing... Old Dominion is a run-first offense all the way with the RBs and with Colton Joseph. That's almost the complete opposite of the offense Jerry Mack is running here with Kennesaw State.
Indiana didn't see many no-huddle fast-paced spread offenses last year. This is definitely a change of pace for Cignetti. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Kennesaw State is moving the ball a bit in this game. Keep in mind... Dexter Williams revenge game!
Now is Kennesaw State capable of making stops against Indiana's offense? Probably not... but let's give em some credit. Wake Forest should have an improved offense line and solid run game this year... they held em to 2.8 YPC and just 348 yards of offense. That being said... I also think Old Dominion is gonna be a strong group of 5 run defense this year and Indiana just ran for 309 on 5.4 YPC. So maybe there's nothing they can do.
All I'll say is I don't necessarily hate this matchup for Kennesaw. I make this game Indiana -24.5.
IOWA @ IOWA STATE - 12 PM EST
This one's pretty simple. I think Iowa State is one of the strongest teams in the country. I think they might have the best coach in the country. I had them 7th in my power ratings to start the season and that hasn't changed. I'm getting the better team at home at a very affordable price. I have Iowa State ML at -126 in my pocket.
KENT STATE @ TEXAS TECH - 12 PM EST
Kent State almost lost to Merrimack. This is not an FBS team. This entire season is an interim year. Texas Tech minus whatever.
VIRGINIA @ NC STATE - 12 PM EST
Coastal Carolina is not a good football team... but let's give Virginia some credit. They beat the life out of Coastal.
Chandler Morris is gonna be solid this year (and he's expected to play). It's unfortunate... because if it weren't for the injuries, I would actually be kinda big on this Virginia team. Antonio Clary ended up playing which is huge. I'd like to see if Caleb Hardy or Kam Robinson are able to return for week 2. (Kam Robinson will most likely still be out).
NC State's offense did not impress in week 1. CJ Bailey had a solid stat line throwing the ball... but 3.3 YPC? Keep in mind, they played an ECU defense that lost everybody from last year. Now, it's a rivalry game... maybe we don't draw any conclusions from it. But a home game against an ECU defense that should struggle this season... I was expecting the numbers to be a bit more efficient. Virginia's defense might be equipped to really give them some problems.
And it actually gets worse on the other side of the ball. ECU actually out-gained NC State in the game! Katin Houser put up a really nice looking statline. It doesn't give me a ton of hope for this defense. Chandler Morris is an established starting QB. He should be able to complete passes against NC State.
I like both QBs to have success throwing the ball in this game. I don't really trust either rushing attack nor do I expect either offense to spend too much time running it. More passing = more points. I know Virginia's defense looked excellent in week 1... but CJ Bailey is definitely an upgrade from MJ Morris. Virginia put very little pressure on Morris in Week 1.
If they give CJ Bailey that kind of time to work, that Virginia defense won't look nearly as good in this one.
I'm on OVER 53.5.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ PITTSBURGH - 12 PM EST
Central Michigan squeaked out a win... but not sure they deserved it. San Jose State basically handed them a win. But let's give them some credit for winning the time of possession battle and establishing the run. I doubt they'll have the same sort of success here. Pitt was extremely tough against the run last year.
And they bring back a ton of production in the defensive front. CMU is going to struggle to sustain drives with that physical ruishing attack against Pitt.
We didn't see much from Labas in the opener... Central Michigan stuck with the run. He only dropped back to pass 10 games. In fact, the backup Angel Flores went 3/3 and threw for more yards than Labas did. I don't necessarily think Labas is a great QB, but he's definitely much better than CMU had last year. The weakness of this Pittsburgh defense is the secondary... so maybe Labas can complete passes but keep in mind, Matt Drinkall comes from Army. So I'm not sure how dynamic of a passing attack Central Michigan will have. Not sure how often they'll ever try to throw it.
On the other side, I'm expecting both of these units to be better this year. Keep in mind, when we're looking at Pittsburgh's offensive numbers from last season, we're factoring in 4 games where Holstein was injured.
When Holstein was healthy, this Pittsburgh offense did look pretty good. Remember, last year they brought in Kade Bell at OC and we saw a complete 180. We saw a fast paced offense and it looked really strong early in the season.
Are they able to replicate these types of numbers? Probably not... but with Holstein healthy, I think vibes are high coming into the season.
They bring back a lot of production, including superstar RB Desmond Reid.
Pittsburgh shouldn't have problems winning this game comfortably. What makes this game so difficult to price is the complete night and day difference in pace. Kade Bell is going to have Pitt's offense moving FAST. Matt Drinkall comes from Army... he wants a 9 minute drive every time he touches the football and the option can be tough to stop. I like Pittsburgh to win comfortably but it's a tough one to bet.
CONNECTICUT @ SYRACUSE - 12 PM EST
I have some questions about the Syracuse defense after that opener. I know they played Tennessee... but that's a Tennessee offense that lost its offensive line and RB. They've got a Sun Belt QB. I'm not giving Syracuse a pass for this one... Fran Brown is a defensive coach.. this is year 2... Tennessee's a strong team but that's a brand new offense. They need to be better than that. Tennessee averaged 6.4 YPC on the ground. They sent a million blitzes at Aguilar and didn't have a ton of success.
Now, UConn's offense is definitely not Tennessee... but it should definitely be improved this season. Fagnano is back at QB... the RBs are back (Cam Edwards is very good).
UConn absolutely steamrolled Central Connecticut. The offense did whatever it wanted. Obviously, it's an FCS program but it's still a great sign.
I do think Syracuse' defense is gonna be improved this year though and I don't wanna draw any conclusions from an SEC opener. But Fran Brown needs to show us some sort of defense here.
On the other side, Angeli was pretty impressive against Tennessee's defense. Keep in mind, this Vols defense is gonna be very strong this year. I know these QB rating numbers don't look elite... but to be under pressure that often and still find a way to move the chains? Jeff Nixon is definitely an OC to keep an eye on.
UConn's defense was incredible last year... there's a lot of optimism surrounding this program. STARTING SAFETY MALACHI MCLLEAN IS OUT.
The question is... are they able to recover from losing all these pieces? They looked dominant against Central Connecticut, but Syracuse' offense should be a huge step-up in competition. This will be a true test to see if UConn's defense has taken a step back from 2024.
I personally don't think this number should be above a TD. I'd have it around 5.5. So I'd like to take the UConn +8.5 I'm staring at right now. I just dk what to think about the UConn defense... and I do think Jeff Nixon is establishing himself as a great OC. UConn +8.5 or pass.
LIBERTY @ JACKSONVILLE STATE - 12 PM EST
Liberty struggling against Maine in the opener.... that's concerning. I will say tho... the box score is a little misleading. Maine had a 77 yard TD run in there. They averaged 6.0 YPC... if you take that run out, it was 3.6 YPC. It was also the only points Maine scored in the game. So the Liberty defense was fine... let up 1 big play.
I personally think Liberty is MILES better than Jacksonville State. This will be by far the best secondary in Conference USA.
I don't have a ton of interest in this game... I have it at 7.5 so it would be Liberty at anything under a touchdown.
UTAH STATE @ TEXAS A&M - 12:45 PM EST
This Texas A&M team looked way stronger than the final score indicates in week 1. UTSA had a couple huge plays including a meaningless hail mary in the final seconds to backdoor cover. This game was controlled start to finish by TAMU.
Kind of the same story with Utah State... this final score doesn't tell the story. UTEP connected on a deep TD... other than that, they weren't really doing much at all. I was surprised to see Utah State's defense put up a fight. Props to Bronco Mendenhall.
Something that really concerns me here for Utah State... is the pass rush. Texas A&M put a ton of pressure on Owen McCown without blitzing much. Meanwhile... Barnes actually was struggling with UTEP's pressure. If UTEP's pass rush is giving you problems... the Aggies pass rush at Kyle Field is gonna be a serious problem.
On the other side, Bronco Mendenhall may be a hell of a coach but this might just be way too much talent for that defense. Malachi Nelson wasn't able to exploit Utah State's defense... I would imagine this offensive line bullies em.
I have this one at 33... I guess I'd lean A&M but no chance I'm touching this.
TROY @ CLEMSON 3:30 PM EST
The lead story from LSU Clemson is right here. Cade Klubnik was under pressure all night and he did NOT do a good job with it.
Some good news for Clemson... first off, they probably just played the toughest game on their schedule. Also... let's not forget that Clemson got absolutely smoked to start last season off also... they ended up winning the ACC and in the College Football Playoff. They didn't just "start winning games" after that Georgia loss... they started SMOKING teams after that.
I very seriously doubt this Clemson offensive line is going to play that poorly again... this isn't a game they can just sleepwalk through. I know you look at Troy's defensive numbers from last season and you're thinking this is not competition.
But we gotta remember that this Troy defense might be pretty good this season. This should be one of the stronger defenses in the Sun Belt conference... and they should have a strong pass rush. Now... does that mean they can win battles against the Clemson offensive line? Probably not... but considering LSU's defensive front just completely bullied them up front, it's worth mentioning.
On the other side of the ball, Clemson's defense wasn't terrible... but to keep it on the same topic, the lack of pass rush was concerning. This was against an LSU offensive line that lost 4 starters to the NFL. They were sending blitzes... but they just could not get to Nussmeier.
Now Troy's offensive line it certainly not LSU's. But this is an experienced unit and they bring back an experienced QB.
Look... it sounds like I'm gassing up Troy... the truth is they almost lost to Nicholls in the opener. I'm just saying I think Troy will be pretty strong this year. Unfortunately for them, they're going to Death Valley and playing one of the best teams in the country who is definitely pissed off. I think 32.5 is way too many but I'm not stepping in front of this.
OKLAHOMA STATE @ OREGON 3:30 PM EST
Neither team played anybody... Oregon looked far more impressive. In fact, Oklahoma State was held to 3.0 YPC against UT Martin... which is certainly concerning. It's insane to think Gundy is catching 4 touchdowns... but honestly, it makes complete sense. I don't have much interest in this one... I feel like we haven't learned anything about Oklahoma State.
OLE MISS @ KENTUCKY 3:30 PM EST
Revenge game for the Rebels. Stoops went into Oxford and pulled off the upset. Can Kentucky possibly make it two in a row?
I know Ole Miss won the opener 63-7... but Georgia State actually made them work for it. That game was close the entire first half. Ole Miss scored 21 points in the 4th quarter and ran the score up a little.
Austin Simmons was actually struggling with Georgia State's pass rush. He was only pressured on 20% of dropbacks... but he threw two interceptions in this game.
Kentucky was putting consistent pressure on Gleason... and before you say "that's a MAC program"... Toledo's gonna have the strongest offensive line and best offense in that conference... probably by a good margin.
I know Kentucky's defense is coming off a down year... but I really like this secondary and Ole Miss has an inexperienced QB under center.
Remember... Ole Miss also took alotta hits. Delano Townsend didn't play in the opener and I doubt he'll be back for week 2. PJ Wilkins did play which is big for them. But I'm still not sure if I trust this Ole Miss offensive line completely.
They were able to average 6.7 YPC against Georgia State... I very seriously doubt that's about to happen in Lexington. Although we do need to mention that Kentucky's front 7 also took a lot of hits from last year. KENTUCKY GETTING PIECES BACK HEALTHY.
The problem is... I just don't trust Kentucky's offense at all. Calzada couldn't throw the ball at all. He was terrible. 10/23 85 yards 0 TD 1 INT.
Kentucky's offense was struggling a bit against Toledo. Take out Dowdell's 79 yard run and those numbers look pretty bad. It would only be Kentucky for me here. I also lean under.
KANSAS @ MISSOURI 3:30 PM EST
I know Kansas looks impressive... and I'm not saying we shouldn't take note of that. Jalon Daniels has looked basically perfect in the first 2 games. One was against Fresno with a brand new coach in Week 0... and one was against Wagner. Weak competition.
But to me, the glaring weakness of this Kansas team is gonna be the pass defense. Remember, this is a defense that lost two superstar corners to the NFL. I still think this secondary is going to struggle this season.
INJURY CONERNS: Looks like DJ Graham is back which is huge. Both LBs Kamara and Sipp are injured. Kamara didn't play in the Wagner game and Sipp is yet to play. EDGE Dean Miller played limited snaps against Wagner although that may have been precautionary.
They played Fresno, who is going to be a run-first program this season under Entz, and Wagner. So the question is... does Mizzou have the passing attack that can exploit this Kansas secondary?
Well, we didn't learn much about Beau Pribula (definitely going to be the starter since Sam Horn is injured). This is a 4 star recruit from Penn State... highly touted. He put up a monster statline in the opener. It was against Central Arkansas though so I'm not trying to overreact. This is an insane upgrade from Fresno and Wagner though.
The thing is... I'm not huge on the Missouri offense this year. So, I'm a little hesitant... and Kansas looks strong.
On the other side, we've got a real battle... cuz Jalon Daniels looks 100% and unstoppable.
This is a massive step-up in competition though... because Missouri is going to have one of the strongest defenses in college football this season.
This was already a strong defense last year... now they bring back a ton of production and add 3 major pieces through the portal. Jalon Daniels is gonna be put to the test in this one.
I have Missouri by over a touchdown... trying not to let what I've seen from Kansas so far completely change my opinion. Ran into some problems last season reacting to small samples. Missouri -5.5 for me.
MIAMI (OHIO) @ RUTGERS 3:30 PM EST
So I guess we'll start with the good news. Rutgers offense looked excellent in the opener. Ohio was blitzing the hell out of Kaliakmanis and it didn't matter. He was great.
That was against an Ohio defense that basically lost everybody though... Miami (OH) probably will have the strongest defense in the MAC. They bring back a ton of production.
Personally, I think this Rutgers offense is going to be strong. I still believe they'll be able to move the ball... just maybe not quite as easily. Redhawks defense did an excellent job against Wisconsin last week (although Billy Edwards got injured in the game).
The bigger question is on the other side. DeQuan Finn just doesn't have much talent around him on this side of the ball. They did absolutely nothing against Wisconsin's defense.
This is not an offense I trust. But after seeing what Ohio was able to do against Rutgers defense last week... BLUE-ELI OUT FOR SEASON. and taking into consideration that the Rutgers defense is not very strong, I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami (OH) move the ball a lot more fluently in this one.
I have this one at 11. So at 14.5, it would be Miami (OH) here.
FRESNO STATE @ OREGON STATE 3:30 PM EST
Both of these teams are on my "I'm not sure" list. Fresno has shown us two insanely opposite data points. I'm not interested in betting this one.
BOWLING GREEN @ CINCINNATI 3:30 PM EST
If this was last year, I'd say this defense is a tough out for Cincinnati.
But this is not the same Bowling Green team at all. First of all, we're talking about a brand new coaching staff here. Eddie George takes the job... he did a pretty solid job at Tennessee State but it took a few years to get going.
In addition to a brand new coaching staff, Bowling Green also lost their entire defense... which was the strength of the team. There are just 2 starters back on this side of the field. KAL-EL PASCAL STARTING SAFETY QUESTIONABLE.
I know Cincinnati's offense didn't look great in the opener. In fact, the passing game was NON-EXISTENT. This is a huge concern... considering Cincinnati is supposed to have a dynamic passing attack this season.
I'm not gonna overreact to it. It was the opener... against a Big Ten team. Now they get to settle in at home and piece up a brand new defense that's mostly comprised of FCS players. I think Cincinnati lights em up.
On the other side, Bowling Green's offense looked REALLY shaky in the opener against Lafayette. 267 total yards at home against an FCS team... that's not gonna cut it.
I don't expect Cincinnati's defense is be anything spectacular. They had trouble getting off the field at times against Nebraska but as a whole, the defense put out a solid effort. ORMANIE ARNOLD DOUBTFUL.
Cincinnati should completely roll this team. I have this closer to 28 than 20. I laid it... Cincinnati -20.
DELAWARE @ COLORADO 3:30 PM EST
Still getting a feel for Delaware. I'm not an FCS guy... so I need a few games and some data.
TEXAS STATE @ UTSA 3:30 PM EST
I got a good number here. This Texas State offense definitely looked strong against Eastern Michigan. This UTSA team is MUCH better. I know that the defense probably isn't going to give you this type of production again... they lost too much. But it's still going to be a step up over Eastern Michigan. UPDATE: UTSA'S DEFENSE IS LOOKING CRUSHED WITH INJURIES AND IT'S DISAPPOINTING.
I'm not even saying UTSA's defense is gonna play great.. I'm sure Texas State is gonna move the ball in this game. That's not what my bet is on. My bet is on the other side of the ball. This UTSA offense was almost unstoppable down the stretch last season... and home at the Alamodome? Forget about it.
This is an offense that brings almost everybody back. They were moving the ball on Texas A&M at Kyle Field last week. Cory Godinet didn't even play in that game btw... he was limited in camp. He might be back on the offensive line for this one. So they could even be stronger.
Texas State's defense lost a ton of production from last year's team.
And Texas State may have won comfortably... but Eastern Michigan was moving the ball on this unit. Noah Kim actually looked pretty good. They were running the ball as well. If they were struggling against EMU's offense at home... on the road in the Alamodome should be a nightmare.
I'm on UTSA in this one. I have this game at 5.5/6. I personally got UTSA -3.5.
UAB @ NAVY 3:30 PM EST
I'm big on Navy this season and they definitely didn't disappoint in the opener.
It's tough to defend UAB after what we saw last season. And they open up this season by needing to come back from an 11 point 2nd half deficit to beat Alabama State. ALST had over 500 yards of offense in the game.
There's just nothing on paper that indicates UAB's defense is capable of getting off the field against Navy. UAB have one of the worst run defenses in the country last year.
Navy brings back so much production on that offense. They did take some hits on the offensive line but all the ball carriers are back.
Navy went into Birmingham and controlled the game start to finish last season. They were up 31-3 late in the 3rd quarter.
If you're looking to take UAB, you can point at the fact that UAB's offense does seem to be better with Jalen Kitna at QB. They looked stronger down the stretch last season after making the switch.
Navy should kill em... but honestly, 21.5 is too high. I'd have this one at around 17. So I guess UAB or pass but I'm not getting involved here.
NORTH TEXAS @ WESTERN MICHIGAN 3:30 PM EST
We don't want to overreact over a game against an FCS opponent... but considering the North Texas defense has been so bad the last couple years during this Eric Morris tenure... I'd say the fact that they pitched a shutout in the opener is huge.
Drew Mestemaker was essentially perfect... and if you're thinking "oh well that's just Lamar".. the Western Michigan defense might not even be a giant step up from Lamar. This defense was terrible last year and they didn't bring back much production.
I wanna give em credit though... they struggled to get off the field against Michigan State... got dominated in time of possession. But they really limited the big plays.
But I'm not expecting this WMU defense to be good this year... in fact, I think it may be terrible. North Texas should have no problem scoring points in this game. That's not new... they've have a top 10 offense in back to back seasons now. The question is on the other side of the ball. Western Michigan's offense looked straight up AWFUL in the opener. I know it's Michigan State but it's not like Michigan State has some elite defense. That's been a low-end Big Ten defense for a few years now. That was not a good showing at all. They're only points came on a late pick six.
I completely understand why the number is 10... but are we really just sold that North Texas can play defense after 1 game? This is a program that's had one of the worst defenses in the country in back to back years. Skylar Cassidy shows up... they shutout Lamar and all of the sudden we're laying two possessions in road games? It would only be Western Michigan +10 for me.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE @ WISCONSIN 4:00 PM EST
What the hell is this?!??! How does this happen? Middle Tennessee didn't just lose to an FCS program... they got the shit beat out of them... at home.
153 yards of offense??? At home against an FCS defense?
Remember... this is a Middle Tennessee offense that actually has some high expectations for the season. They bring back a multi-year starter at QB. They bring back 4 starters on the offensive line... 3 of the top 4 WRs. What the hell happened?
Is this Middle Tennessee offense just the most disappointing unit in the history of college football? Or did they just lay the biggest egg of all time? They better bring a better effort to Madison because this Wisconsin defense looks strong. They completely blanked Dequan Finn and the MIami (OH) offense in week 1.
I kinda think we're gonna see Middle Tennessee score some points in this game. I know that just sounds crazy... but I do think MTSU's offense has a high ceiling. This is an offense that throws the ball a TON. They take big shots... it's a very all or nothing offense... and yeah it was terrible last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see Middle Tennessee receive the opening kick and driving right down the field to go up 7-0 and just shocking everybody.
On the other side of the ball... I can't make many arguments for MTSU's defense making stops in this one. They do bring back some production from last season but we have to keep in mind... this was one of the worst defenses in the country last year.
I will say the Middle Tennessee defense wasn't all that bad last week. It was the offense that lost that game... defense was fine. But that was Austin Peay... not WISCONSIN.
I like the over in this one. It's the ultimate buy-low spot on MTSU's offense after laying an absolute egg in the opener. I do believe the'll get the ball in the endzone a couple of times. And Wisconsin should have no problems whatsoever scoring points on this Blue Raiders defense. OVER 45.5.
WEST VIRGINIA @ OHIO 4:00 PM EST
We'll start with the good news for West Virginia. Ohio's defense looked absolutely terrible in Piscataway. Rutgers did literally whatever they wanted on offense.
Remember, this is an Ohio defense that lost basically everybody in the front 7 and it showed.
We still don't know what to think about Rich Rod's offense after just 1 game. They got off to a slow start but ended up running it up in the 2nd half to put together a nice looking statline. They had 393 yards rushing in the game.
I know that back home in Athens, the Ohio defense should probably put together a better effort... but I don't have alotta faith ih the Bobcats defense this season. I don't necessarily trust the WVU offense this early in the season... but I do think they can move the football in this game.
On the other side of the ball, this is where we can be optimistic for Ohio. Parker Navarro's back... most of the offense around him is back... and he picked up right where he left off last season.
West Virginia's defense looked elite against Robert Morris... but I don't expect this to be a reliable unit this season. They were terrible last year and it's a brand new coaching staff. Bobcats should move the football in this one. I'd probably go over 60.5 but I don't have a bet in this one.
SOUTH FLORIDA @ FLORIDA 4:15 PM EST
We all know what happened in the opener.. South Florida pulled it off. Something that needs to be mentioned tho.. the final score is definitely not indicative of how this game went at all. 34-7... looks like a complete beatdown.
South Florida was the better team... but it was WAY closer than that. Look at that graphic below. Are you kidding??
So I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on the South Florida hype. And this is coming from a guy that's been gassing up South Florida all summer. You can watch the offseason video... I was saying South Florida's got a shot to win the conference. I'm big on this team. I'm just saying... as far as the week 1 game against Boise, it didn't look nearly as good as people are making it out to be. The offense looked very stagnant at times. 34% success rate is actually terrible. Boise State kept shooting themselves in the foot.
We need to keep in mind that Florida's got a very strong team on both sides of the ball.
After seeing South Florida struggle to move the chains at home against Boise, there's no way I can trust this offense to go into the swamp and put points up. This might be a long afternoon for Byrum Brown. One thing I'll say... I think Todd Orlando is turning out to be a hell of a DC. They played great against Boise... some huge 4th down stops. I wouldn't be surprised if USF is able to give DJ Lagway some problems.
I don't like the matchup for South Florida... I think they're walking into a hornet's nest here in the swamp... but I do think 17.5 is too many. I have this one at a flat 16. It would only be South Florida for me here.
ARKANSAS STATE @ ARKANSAS 5:00 PM EST
I know Arkansas State has improved every single year under his tenure... but last year was disappointing. They had a favorable schedule and they were getting talked about as a dark horse to win the Sun Belt conference... they got smoked in the two games they needed the most.
I do think Nate Dreiling is a great hire... but I'm not sure if we see a turn-around right away. This defense was AWFUL last season and they bring back basically nobody.
So unfortunately, I'm not expecting a huge 180 turnaround right away. On the road against the Hogs offense... this is a tough draw. Arkansas brings back Taylen Green at QB and they certainly looked fine in their opener. Yes, it was against Alabama A&M... but the 2024 Arkansas State defense wasn't even much better than Alabama A&M's.
Arkansas should do whatever they want here offensively... as far as the Arkansas defense, they do bring back a good amount of production... but Jaylen Raynor can definitely play. He looked excellent in the opener... I know it was an FCS opponent but I wouldn't be surprised if Raynor is able to make some plays.
I honestly wouldn't be mad at an Arkansas State +24 bet here. The Hogs head directly to Oxford to play Ole Miss after this... the thing is... is this a big game? I believe this is the first time these two teams have EVER played. Arkansas vs Arkansas State... is that a big deal? I guess it is. I feel like it's a bigger deal for the Redwolves than it is for the Hogs. I'm gonna take the points... this game's getting hyped up. I think Arkansas State is gonna make this interesting.
MISSOURI STATE @ MARSHALL 6:00 PM EST
I dk anything about Missouri State.
NORTH CAROLINA @ CHARLOTTE 7:00 PM EST
We've got two teams coming off humiliating openers.
So the question is... which of these embarrassed programs bounce back? And honestly... it's tough to say. I was not big on Charlotte this season at all. I picked App State in that game... Tim Albin is a great hire at head coach and I'm sure Charlotte's heading in the right direction. They are dumping a bunch of money into the stadium... they've got resource. I think Charlotte has a bright future. But the talent just isn't there this year. Tim Albin is a great head coach but he's not a magician. I think Charlotte's gonna struggle for most of this season.
I think North Carolina is going to have a good season... and I don't want to overreact to one game... especially against a TCU team that should be pretty good this season. But, I can't just pretend I didn't watch that game. A great test on evaluating what you saw... is right after the game, objectively ask yourself... if that same exact game was played next week, what would the line be? You'll find in a lotta cases, sure one team is gonna win and one team is gonna lose... but the line would be the exact same if they played again the following week. In this instance... that number closed at 3.5. I honestly think TCU might be laying 6 if that same game was played at Chapel Hill again. That was a pretty telling display. I dropped North Carolina in my power ratings for that game and I don't really adjust them much after 1 game.
I will say... I'm not concerned about Gio Lopez' injury for this game. North Carolina is one of the few teams in the FBS that could afford to roll with a backup QB because their backup is Max Johnson. Guy's got multiple years starting experience... LSU, Texas A&M... remember he was supposed to be the starter last season. He tore his ACL in the opener. In fact, I bet there are people that would argue North Carolina might be better with Max Johnson at QB. I'm not saying that... I'm just saying there are people that would argue that.
AJ Swann absolutely cooked this Charlotte secondary in the opener and after that TCU game, UNC could really use a defense they can stretch their legs and move the chains against. This might be the perfect defense. Whether it's Gio Lopez or Max Johnson at QB, I don't think it'll be a problem.
I personally think this number is about perfect. I have it at a flat 13. So nothing for me here.
ARMY @ KANSAS STATE 7:00 PM EST
One thing I will say for Kansas State... despite getting off to a terrible start this season, some of their metrics here actually look pretty good.
Even last week against North Dakota, people will see the 38-35 final score. People will see that it was a close game start to finish and Kansas State needed a last minute comeback to win. But if you actually look and some of these numbers, it's not like North Dakota lit them up.
Honestly... I think this might be considered a "hot take"... I think Kansas State is fine. They very easily coulda won that Iowa State game.. it's looking like Iowa State might be one of the best teams in the country btw. They made some mistakes and played flat against an FCS opponent... we've seen tons of great teams do that. Shit Oregon almost lost to Idaho early last season and they ended up going undefeated. Remember, this is a very strong Kansas State run defense from last year that basically brings back its entire defensive front 7. I'd be surprised if Army's able to consistently move the ball in this game. ARMY QB DEWAYNE COLEMAN LISTED AS QUESTIONABLE.
I truly think Kansas State is about to crush Army. Gimme KSU -17.
HOUSTON @ RICE 7:00 PM EST
Great start for Rice. They go on the road and grab the outright win as huge underdogs. Awesome start to the Scott Abell era.
But let's be real about it... the offense was pretty bad. They didn't do anything with the football. Let's not pretend this new spread option offense worked... sure it's difficult to get off the field at times... but it wasn't very effective.
I think we can chalk a lot of this game up to Louisiana's offense falling off without Wooldridge. That was terrible. Walker Howard really struggled.
Houston's defense took a ton of hits from last season. Just 4 starters back on this unit but they do bring in some talent. It looks like Corey Platt is finally cleared to play in this game at LB. He hasn't played in 2022 as a true freshman.
Houston's defense was essentially perfect in the opener against Stephen F. Austin. Trying to stop this spread option isn't easy tho... I know the Rice offense looked back against Louisiana... but I wouldn't be surprised if they are able to string a few drives together despite there being a talent disadvantage.
On the other side... Houston's offense didn't look great... but we also can't be sure they showed us their best fastball there. Home opener against Stephen F. Austin... really don't think there's any reason to open up the playbook in that one. They've got Conner Weigman at QB now which gives them a lot more flexibility in the passing game than they've had the past couple years. Remember, Willie Fritz was throwing the ball a lot at Tulane with Michael Pratt. He didn't have a QB that could throw the ball last year. I know Louisiana couldn't throw the ball on Rice last week... but I think Houston's gonna get the passing attack working.
I am gonna be honest here... I'm way off on this one. I have this game at about a touchdown. I'm not naive enough to think I have a full touchdown edge over the market here... clearly people are bigger on Houston than I am. It'll be Rice +14 for me. Idk how you lay two touchdowns on the road with Houston's brand new roster.
MICHIGAN @ OKLAHOMA 7:30 PM EST
Both teams handled their business in the openers... but both had some concerns.
Oklahoma's offensive line is something we need to talk about. Ozaeta and Simmons did not play in the opener. Both are expected to play in this game against Michigan. LT Jacob Sexton left the opener after just 6 plays.
Good news is Mateer looked awesome... the run game as lacking but you can probably chalk that up to missing offensive linemen. Also Jadyn Ott isn't 100%... although he's "close".
It's disappointing... coming off a season where they were absolutely crushed with injuries. It seems like the injury bug carried over to 2025 on this side of the ball... on the other side of the ball though, Oklahoma's got one of the best defenses in the country.
A Freshman QB making his first road start... this is a nightmare matchup. Michigan's most likely not gonna be able to hand the ball off and win this game... Not against this defensive line. Underwood's gonna have to make throws. He was fine in the opener... but they didn't ask him to do much. He only attempted 2 passes of 20+ yards. He had a 0% BTT rate.
Can he make the throws? It's tough to say... he didn't really attempt any. We're gonna find out. As far as betting this game, I really don't feel comfortable placing a bet without knowing the status of those Oklahoma offensive linemen and Jadyn Ott. If they're healthy, I'd probably make the game 6. If they're missing a couple pieces on the offensive line again and the run game isn't gonna be there at all, I'd probably make this game 2.5-3.
ARIZONA STATE @ MISSISSIPPI STATE 7:30 PM EST
I think alotta people had this one circled all summer. Mississippi State's revenge game from last season. Arizona State was the better team last year... but that game was in Tempe... Mississippi State gave Arizona a couple free touchdowns early. It was 27-3 at half. Mississippi State came all the way back and was the much stronger team in the 2nd half.
I understand the hype surrounding Arizona State this year. They went on a Cinderella run last year and brought a ton of production back... including Sam Leavitt at QB who is getting very highly touted. The only two 1st team all Big 12 pieces are gone though in Fautanu and Skattebo.... but pretty much the rest of the offense is back.
And yeah... this should be a major mismatch. Arizona State should move the ball on Mississippi State's defense. MSST's defense should be better this year and ASU's offense might not have the same magic to it without Skattebo and opponent's have a year of film on Sam Leavitt... this gap is not nearly as big.
It's the other side of the ball that I think tilt towards the Bulldogs. Miss State's offense should be strong this year. Keep in mind, they only had their QB for 4 games last year.. they've got two good RBs in Booth and Bothwell. I think this offense is pretty good.
Remember... going on the road to Southern Miss last week was NOT a layup at all. That team's got a ton of talent. That place was loud. Bulldogs offense was impressive. Honestly... shoutout to the defense also. Southern Miss couldn't run the ball at all in that game.
The Arizona State defense didn't have the strongest performance last week but honestly... I don't really care. They're gonna be fine. Arizona State is the better team, but laying 7 on the road just seems crazy. I'm on Miss State +7.
LOUISIANA TECH @ LSU 7:30 PM EST
It's the talk of College Football right now. LSU's defense just put out the performance of the week... on the road... shut em down. The offense wasn't all that great... but they were on the road in Clemson.
But we've heard nothing but LSU talk for 3 straight days. Let's take a look at LA Tech. I thought this defense would go back to shit with Jeremiah Johnson leaving after just 1 year.
But they came out and pitched a shutout against their rival Southeast Louisiana.
Now, does that mean they're capable of making stops against LSU? No... but I gotta say... if Louisiana Tech puts out a strong CUSA defense again this year... with ANOTHER new DC and losing basically their entire front 7, Sonny Cumbie will definitely have earned my respect. UNDER 51.5 OR PASS.
VANDERBILT @ VIRGINIA TECH 7:30 PM EST
Well... safe to say Kyron Drones struggled in the opener. I would love to points at the 44.7% pressured rate and blame it on the offensive line... but unfortunately, I watched the game and there were plenty of plays to make... that he just didn't. The good news is... Vanderbilt's defensive line is most definitely not South Carolina's defensive line.
At home against a lesser defensive front, Kyron Drones should be in a much more comfortable position here. I know he looked terrible with a clean pocket also... but it felt like Dylan Stewart was in Drones face every time he dropped back and Drones just seemed to be rattled. I believe we'll see Drones look significantly better in this one. I definitely don't want to completely sleep on the Vandy defense though. Remember, they bring back basically everyone from last year. Looks like Yilanan Ouattara is going to return for this game. (Missed opener)
And they did look insanely dominant in the opener against Charleston Southern.
But Drones didn't have problems making throws on the road against basically this exact same defense last year. Vanderbilt got out to an early 17-0 lead... then Drones got hot and they actually ended up going to OT.
On the other side of the ball, this is going to be a tough matchup for Vanderbilt. This is an offense that needs to run the ball... and Virginia Tech's strength if gonna be up the middle. Other than 1 drive early in the game, South Carolina was really struggling to consistently move the chains against the Hokie defense. On the road in Blacksburg, this is going to be a harsh environment for Pavia. They were definitely moving the ball last year... and Vanderbilt's offense should be stronger... but on the road's just a different environment.
I personally think Pavia's gonna figure out a way to get some points on the board in this one... I think we'll see offense again... but I can't 100% make sense of it on paper. It's more of a "I gotta feeling" bet... but I'm strongly considering an over here at 47.5. I like VA Tech on the side.
TULSA @ NEW MEXICO STATE 9:00 PM EST
Well we didn't see the air raid offense we were promised from Tre Lamb in the opener. Most likely because there was no need to throw the ball against Abilene Christian. The question is... how much of a step up in competition is Abilene Christian? New Mexico State is probably the worst team in the FBS outside of Kent State. But honestly.. Tulsa isn't that far ahead. Let's give em credit tho... they did look strong in the opener.
I feel like the market's taken this one a bit far. We've now got Tulsa laying 5.5 points on the road? Come on... we don't think this is a BIT of an overreaction.
SAN DIEGO STATE @ WASHINGTON STATE 10:30 PM EST
San Diego State was one of my favorite bets last week and I'm going right back to em this week. I've been saying since the offseason video... all these teams are getting thrown around in the Mountain West conversation after seeing Boise State come out and lay an egg in the opener... why isn't San Diego State being mentioned in those discussions? Sean Lewis knows how to put points on the board. He's got a QB with a big arm... he's got some big play WRs. I know Washington State's defense is a step up from Stony Brook... and they played well against Idaho in the opener.
But keep in mind, that's an Idaho team that just lost everybody... Eck is at New Mexico now and he took his QB and best 3 defenders with him. That's a brand new Idaho team. Playing defense against SDSU is going to be a different beast. And on the other side... man do we trust the Washington State offense at all right now? They looked awful against Idaho. San Diego State pitched a shutout in the opener.... this is a defense that brings back basically everybody.
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