CFB Week 9 Saturday

Kyle Kirms
11 minutes ago
25 min read

SYRACUSE @ GEORGIA TECH - 12 PM

So yeah I think it's safe to say that Rickie Collins isn't working at QB for Syracuse. QB Steve Angeli went down for the season and this offense just looks broken ever since. Star WR Johntay Cook's uncle called into Syracuse radio to complain. WR Justus Ross-Simmons might be returning but I'm not sure if that moves the needle much.

You look at the season long numbers here... you gotta keep in mind that this includes the first few games with Angeli at QB. Since he's gone down, this offense is really bad. It's still an offense that wants to throw the ball and Georgia Tech has been a bit vulnerable to the pass... I still trust Jeff Nixon as a playcaller... so maybe there's a path to Syracuse doing something offensively.

If you look at Georgia Tech's game logs though, the only games where they were getting thrown on... Clemson and Duke. Syracuse' passing offense with Rickie Collins is not even close to comparable to those two offenses.

On the other side of the ball, there's not gonna be much here that indicates Syracuse's defense is capable of stopping Georgia Tech.

This Syracuse defense has been terrible this year... they took some serious injuries. LB Derek McDonald has been out for the season for a few weeks. DT Rashard Perry has been out for the season for a few weeks... that being said, not sure what we take away from this... Syracuse actually looked decent defensively in their last two games.

I don't think it matters though... Georgia Tech's got one of the strongest offenses in the ACC and it looks like they're back on track after looking a bit flat in the Wake Forest game.

I think anything under 20, I'd lean Georgia Tech. I also don't have an under... Syracuse runs a really fast pace and throws the ball... not exactly a recipe for an under. But I'm not sure how we can trust this offense to sustain drives. GT -16.5 and UNDER 53.5.

UCLA @ INDIANA - 12 PM

Chance of rain

So it looks like Nico is gonna play in this one. Also RB Jaivian Thomas is fully practicing and is expected to play. The strength of this UCLA offense has been running the ball. It's hard to envision this offense going into Indiana and running the ball on a Cignetti defense.

So far in conference play, Indiana is shutting down the run in a major way. They did just lose EDGE Kellan Wyatt for the season... but I'm not sure that's enough to expect UCLA to run the ball in this one.

UCLA's offense is coming off a really disappointing game against Maryland. We didn't seem the same sort of consistency that they were showing us in the previous two games... and running the ball in Cignetti's defense is damn near impossible.

On the other side of the ball, UCLA's defense is definitely playing much better... but they still should really struggle to make stops against this offense.

Mendoza's got a passer rating over 142 when given a clean pocket so far this year and UCLA doesn't have a pass rush.

Now UCLA's defense has definitely been better and I don't want to just sweep that under the rug. Michigan State and Maryland do not have offenses that compare to Indiana's though so it's tough to envision this type of success translating to stops here.

Indiana's got Maryland on deck so this isn't a look-ahead spot or a flat spot. We know Cignetti loves beating down on the lower tier Big Ten teams. This is probably a blowout.

VIRGINIA @ NORTH CAROLINA - 12 PM

So is North Carolina a defense we have to respect now?

I really think North Carolina can play a good defensive game here. The Virginia offense hasn't played that well recently. They've won the games... so you would think everything's great. But the efficiency numbers are down. Now there's some good news here... C Brady Wilson is set to return. And these splits are exactly when he went down.

This North Carolina defense looked so bad in the opener against TCU... they haven't been run on once since.

There's gonna be a lot of pressure on Chandler Morris to make throws in this game and I'm sure he will make some... but he hasn't been very efficient throwing the football recently.

This is where the problem is and this is why Virginia's laying such a big number here. North Carolina's offense has been so hilariously bad this year. Virginia's defense isn't even good but you can't count on UNC to move the ball against anyone.

Virginia's defense in their last 3 has been ok.

I really think UNC's defense can keep em in this game... we saw a ton of sharp action coming in late on North Carolina last week... I wouldn't be surprised to see this one get bought down to 9.5 before kickoff.

SOUTH FLORIDA @ MEMPHIS - 12 PM

Well obviously, the lead story here is the QB situation for Memphis. QB Brendon Lewis got injured in the UAB game last week... he's listed as day-to-day. It looks like the market doesn't believe he's gonna play.

We might see AJ Hill make his first career start. I think he gives Memphis a lot more in terms of a passing attack than Lewis does. He made a couple big throws in the attempted comeback last week and they were down 24-14 when he came into the game.

The problem is... this South Florida defense has just looked so elite. Outside of the Miami game, they've been lockdown all year and they've seen a few decent offenses in there.

And if you look at Memphis' offensive game logs on the year. This is a good offensive team... they haven't played a single good defense yet.

So the Memphis offense may be in for a bit of a wakeup call. On the other side of the ball, they might be able to give South Florida some problems though.

South Florida's been lighting the scoreboard up recently... but Memphis is a much stronger defensive team than those 3 opponents. They're gonna be closer to the first 3 defenses USF played. WR1 Chas Nimrod will most likely be out for USF. He was injured in the North Texas game.

I really think this was more of a flat spot for the Memphis defense.

I guess I would go Under 58.5 but the number is cooked. It was at 64.5.

OLE MISS @ OKLAHOMA - 12 PM

Possible rain - 60% chance

This is a tough one... cuz you might think "Ole Miss can score points in this game... they were just lighting it up in Athens".

And the offense did look awesome. Chambliss played great. Efficiency numbers look good. They passed the eye test.

Here's why I'm a little hesitant to just chalk Ole Miss up for another 35 points in Norman. Georgia's defense is not even comparable to Oklahoma's defense this year. Georgia's secondary has been getting cooked all year. Oklahoma might have the best defense in the country.

The matchup on this side of the ball is gonna be electric. I would imagine whichever unit wins this battle probably wins the game.

I suppose the only concern with Oklahoma's defense is that they haven't really been tested. What's the toughest test on here? CB Gentry Williams got injured in the South Carolina game and is listed as questionable.

The Ole Miss offense has been tested a bit more.

I will say... Trinidad Chambliss has been excellent under pressure so far this year. In fact, he's been one of the most efficient QBs in the entire country under pressure so far this year. Same goes for his numbers against the blitz. So Chambliss might be built to take on this test.

On the other side of the ball, there's more uncertainty. Ole Miss' defense is not good. But neither is Oklahoma's offense. Remember, Oklahoma lost their starting LT Jacob Sexton and C Troy Everett in Week 1. They're out for the season. Another OT Logan Howland who started a few games is also injured. It's uncertain if he's gonna play. RT Derek Simmons is health though. He left the Texas game injured but he ended up playing against South Carolina.

The weakness of this Ole Miss defense is the front 7. Do we trust Oklahoma to run the ball? This team has no run game whatsoever.

It's really hard to envision Oklahoma's offense having an explosive game cuz we just have not seen it. We don't know if they're even capable of it. Ole Miss has had problems defensively... but I gotta say... Arkansas is lighting everybody up. Georgia is lighting everybody up. Look at Ole Miss' defensive numbers from their other 5 games.

I think Ole Miss has to be the move here. I picked Oklahoma last week because South Carolina's offense is awful. This Ole Miss offense is pretty explosive. Ole Miss +5.5.

SMU @ WAKE FOREST - 12 PM

So this SMU passing attack seems to be finding its stride. It hasn't looked quite as explosive as last year but it's definitely dangerous. So I guess the question we need to ask is... are these Wake Forest defensive numbers for real?

And the answer is... kinda. I mean, we do need to point out that they haven't seen a ton of great offenses. NC State and Georgia Tech would be the two strongest offenses they've seen.

But this team played Georgia Tech to overtime... Georgia Tech's got one of, if not the, strongest offense in the conference.

Georgia Tech is a run-first offense... they don't offer the same sort of explosivity through the air that SMU does. This will definitely be Wake's toughest test in terms of a passing attack... but they've been so elite against the pass that it's kinda hard to picture them getting completely carved up. We need to wonder how healthy Kevin Jennings is. He re-aggravated the same ankle injury that had him limping early in the season. Also starting RG PJ Williams also got banged up in the Clemson game and is listed as questionable.

Wake's been able to generate consistent pressure this year without blitzing... but Jennings has been pretty elite handling pressure so far this year.

On the other side of the ball, there's no friendly way to say this... Wake Forest is terrible offensively. They've played a pretty easy schedule and they still have awful offensive efficiency numbers. I don't even think this SMU defense is very good this year but they shouldn't have problems against this offense.

QB Robby Ashford missed last game and he's expected to return... but Deshawn Purdie played last week and it was pretty much Wake's best offensive game of the year. Wake was also missing RT Fa'alili Fa'amoe in that one as well... who is expected to return.

This is Wake Forest offense that has to run the ball... and SMU's defense got LB Alexander Kilgore back a few weeks ago and they're really looking strong up front. EDGE Cameron Robertson is listed as questionable which is a concern but I still just can't see Wake running the ball on this defense. There's also a couple other starters on the SMU defense listed as questionable. CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson, LB Brandon Miyazono.

I understand Wake is pretty strong and SMU's defense has some injuries. But this line is still a bit disrespectful. It would only be SMU but the number is making me think that they're gonna be missing starters.

RUTGERS @ PURDUE - 12 PM

POSSIBLE RAIN

It's gotta be Rutgers in this one and I know Ian Strong being questionable is a concern. He definitely gave Rutgers offense a boost when he came back. But Purdue's defensive strength has been stopping the run. This Rutgers offense wants to throw the ball.

Every time Purdue has seen an offense with a QB that can throw it, they've gotten absolutely pieced up. Kaliakmanis and this Rutgers offense may not be quite on the level of these teams, but this is a pretty dangerous passing attack.

If you're worried about Kaliakmanis in a road Big Ten game, well he played pretty well in both of those this year. He went into Minnesota and was throwing the ball... he went out west to Washington and was throwing the ball. As long as the weather's fine, I think we can count on Rutgers to move the ball.

On the other side of the ball, this is where it gets interesting. Rutgers defense is terrible. They've got key players out for the year. It's probably the worst defense in the Big Ten... but Purdue's QB Ryan Browne is most likely not playing in this game. The backup is a RS Freshman, Malachi Singleton. He played most of the Northwestern game last week... they got shut out.

Purdue had just gotten the run game going heading into last week... then Ryan Browne went down and it looks like Northwestern just loaded the box up and were able to take it away. So does Rutgers terrible defense just load the box up and force this RS Freshman to make throws overtop? Are they capable of that?

Well we kinda already saw a similar situation. Rutgers went on the road to Minnesota... they loaded up the box to take the run away... and RS Freshman Drake Lindsey pieced em up. This is slightly different... Drake Lindsey had been starting all year and he was supposed to be the starting QB. Malachi Singleton will be making his first career start here.

I think you gotta go Rutgers or over here. I can't trust a backup QB Redshirt Freshman making his first start. Purdue runs a fast pace... both teams like to throw the ball.

NORTHWESTERN @ NEBRASKA - 12 PM

Northwestern RB Komolafe is fine. He left last game injured but from what I'm reading, he's practicing and is going to play here. That's huge because Cam Porter is out for the season. It's also huge because Nebraska can't defend the run.

Northwestern has been running the ball pretty consistently since Cam Porter went down and they've been doing it against Big Ten opponents.

Now I know Nebraska's defense has actually held up against the run recently... but they haven't played a single offense that can run the ball. I don't think Nebraska's defense is very good... maybe they're improving? But they've got injuries to the secondary. Northwestern seems to be improving offensively.

On the other side of the ball, Nebraska's offense is a powerhouse. They've got a great offensive line... Raiola is having himself a pretty solid year. But we can't sleep on this Northwestern defense.

Look at Northwestern's defensive numbers from their last 3 Big Ten games. This is starting to look like the Pat Fitzgerald Northwestern teams.

We've seen this Nebraska offense sputter... they've been pretty fortunate with the schedule. With the exception of Michigan, Nebraska has avoided any elite Big Ten competition. Starting RG Rocco Spindler is apparently gonna play. He literally broke his hand on the field last week, was taken to the hospital and got surgery. I'm reading he's got a good chance of playing.

Northwestern hasn't had much success in this building in recent years. They've lost 3 straight trips to Lincoln... they didn't score more than 10 points in any of them.

I still don't think this should be more than a TD. It would be Northwestern at +7.5 or better.

KANSAS STATE @ KANSAS - 12 PM

This has been a struggle for the Jayhawks.

And if you're thinking "oh well Kyle this one's at home"...

Now they're favored in this one... so the market is expecting this to come to an end here and I don't necessarily disagree with them being favored based on the full season numbers.

But this Kansas State offense seems to be coming around. They had the bye week and came out looking a lot stronger.

The run game's coming around... Avery Johnson is making throws from a clean pocket. They look like the Kansas State offense we were expecting to see coming into the season.

This Kansas defense does not look good. Avery Johnson should have plenty of run support in this game. Jayhawks have been getting consistently run on for 5 straight games. Now there's definitely good news for Kansas though... they should be getting 3 starters back on the defensive side of the ball. LB Joseph Sipp Jr., S Devin Dye and CB Syeed Gibbs all have missed multiple games and are all set to return for this one. So maybe Kansas puts out a better defensive effort than we've seen... but I still don't think this is a defense we can rely on. ALSO KANSAS STATE RB DYLAN EDWARDS HAS BEEN RULED OUT.

On the other side, we know Kansas can score... the offense has never really been the problem.

The last couple games have been shaky, but we know explosive this offense can be.

I just don't get how we can lay 3.5. 16 straight losses... now we're winning comfortably? What's Kansas' best win so far this year?

It has to be Kansas State here at more than a FG. I also don't have an under.

FAU @ NAVY - 3:30 PM

My first thought when I looked at this game was blind over. All FAU does is throw the ball. All Navy does is run the ball.

What has Navy's defense struggled with all year? The pass.

Look at Navy's game logs so far this year. They really have only played two games against passing offenses... one was against Tulsa with a backup QB Baylor Hayes. That was a Freshman making his first career start. The other was against UAB and UAB threw the ball all over em.

Look at their last two games... these were against Air Force and Temple. These are both rushing offenses.

Veltkamp did have a bad game last week on the road against South Florida. That's probably the best defense in the conference.

But if you look at the two previous games... it really seems like Kittley is starting to get his Texas Tech offense finally rolling. Veltkamp had back to back efficient games.

FAU did lose their starting RG Alex Atcavage a few weeks ago. So maybe Navy's pass rush can disrupt some things. But Kittley has that ball outta Veltkamp's hands quickly in this offense. Navy's secondary can't seem to cover anybody.

On the other side of the ball, how are we expecting FAU to stop this Navy run game?

Both offenses are top 25 in explosive plays... both defenses have stuggled allowing explosive plays.

It's gotta be over at 62.5. I don't understand why the total has come down.

NC STATE @ PITTSBURGH - 3:30 PM

We know this Pitt defense is strong... but it's their front 7 that's elite. Pitt's had injuries in the secondary this year and this team can get thrown on. There's not many offenses that are gonna come into Pitt and run the ball... but they can be susceptible to the pass. The reason this is significant... NC State's offense is completely centered around QB CJ Bailey. They don't have much of a run game between the tackles, anyway. So CJ Bailey won't have run support? That's nothing new... he basically never has run support.

CJ Bailey has played well in conference so far this year. (UVA technically wasn't a conference game). Their WR1 Terrell Anderson is expected to play. He was banged up in the ND game but they had a bye week and I'm reading he should be go. Same goes for WR3 Noah Rogers. He missed the ND game but he should be back for this one.

Now this Pitt defense has been great. But the two best players on this defense are in jeopardy of not playing. All conference LB Kyle Louis left the Syracuse game injured and didn't return. Their leading tackler Rasheem Biles didn't even play in that game. He was a late scratch due to an undisclosed injury. EDGE Zach Crothers is gonna miss his 4th straight game as well.

I think NC State can score points in this game... and I think Pitt can score also. I know the year-long numbers for NC State's defense actually look pretty strong... but they've had a really easy schedule in terms of opposing offenses.

Look at their schedule so far. Who are the respectable offenses on here? ECU's ok... Virginia's pretty good, Duke, Notre Dame.

If you look at NC State's defensive numbers from just those games, they don't look impressive at all. LB Sean Brown (one of the team's leading tacklers), is gonna miss his 3rd straight game. Remember this team is already down LB AJ Richardson since Week 2. Starting S JJ Johnson got injured in the ND game and he's been ruled out. S Brody Banhardt is also still out.

Pitt's offense is coming off a rough game on the road at Syracuse... they still scored 30 points in that game though. Heintshel's first two starts, they were really moving the ball well.

Desmond Reid is healthy... Pittsburgh's offense should be able to move the ball efficiently at home against this injured defense. So I think both offenses can score points... on top of that, Kade Bell is calling the offense so we should see a very fast-paced game.

I'm on OVER 54.5.

AUBURN @ ARKANSAS - 3:30 PM

So we know Arkansas' defense is terrible... we know that Auburn's gonna hand the ball off and have no problems moving the chains. Everybody moves the chains against Arkansas. Arkansas just lost their best defensive lineman DT Cam Ball is out of the season.

I will say though... we might have to cut Arkansas a little bit of slack. Is there any defense in College Football that has seen a schedule like this? This is nuts. Auburn might be their easiest game in 2 months.

And we have to ask... is this Auburn offense any good? They've also been through the gauntlet. Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri... all strong defenses. But Georgia's defense has really struggled this year. Auburn was held to 10 points at home. They also just lost their starting C Connor Lew.

I'm not suggesting Arkansas can make stops... I'm just saying... if this game's a shootout, idk if I trust Auburn to keep up. Arkansas' played a wild schedule and it might be a buy-low on this defense. On the other side of the ball, can anyone stop this offense? Auburn's defensive front has been very strong... but they've been vulnerable to the pass and Arkansas is hanging huge numbers on everybody.

Look at their numbers from their last 5 games.

This Auburn defense is strong... but we've seen QBs make throws on em.

What has Auburn struggled with? Explosive plays... Taylen Green is a walking explosive play machine.

I'm on Arkansas but I got +2.5 which is obviously long gone.

MINNESOTA @ IOWA - 3:30 PM

It feels crazy to lay more than a TD in one of these Big Ten West games... but I said the same thing a couple weeks back when I bet Wisconsin at +5. That was an absolute blowout.

But I guess this Iowa run game is for real. Back to back games where Iowa was running the ball very efficiently against respected defenses.

And idk if I even consider Minnesota to be a respected defense. The thing is... the strength of this Minnesota defense is the front 7. Where I think this defense is vulnerable is at corner. Iowa's not the offense that can exploit that.

And let's not pretend that Iowa can throw the ball.

This Minnesota defense hasn't been very strong this year... but this is still a PJ Fleck team and they looked excellent against Nebraska.

Everyone kinda wrote Minnesota off because they looked pretty ugly in a couple games early. They got beat badly by Cal and we were all like "oh wow this Minnesota team sucks"... man this team is sitting at 3-1 in conference with their only loss being to Ohio State. Minnesota is in the mix and I think they're able to keep Iowa's run game in check.

If you're asking me how I expect Minnesota's offense to move the ball in Kinnick... the answer is I have no idea.

I wanna bet Minnesota but I don't see how we can do it. Hold your nose and bet an under. Two slow paced teams... final score 19-13.

UNDER 39.5.

MISSOURI @ VANDERBILT - 3:30 PM

Well we finally saw Missouri play a road game... and it wasn't pretty. They still got the win because Auburn is cursed.

We're kinda seeing this elite Missouri offense come back down to earth now that we're getting into SEC play.

Now the good news for Missouri is Vanderbilt's defense is not as strong as Alabama and Auburn's. It's just been announced that DL Yilanan Ouattara is getting surgery and will miss the rest of the season. CB Marlon Jones is questionable. He's missed the last two games. Outside of that though, CB Mark Davis came back from injury last week and CB Kolbey Taylor got banged up in the Alabama game. He ended up playing against LSU.

The question is... will Vanderbilt be able to stop Ahmad Hardy? We know Missouri's gonna hand the ball off in this game. Vanderbilt has been vulnerable to the run. Missouri also might be getting OG Logan Reichert back on the offensive line. He hasn't played all year and I think he's supposed to be a starter.

I really think Missouri can run the ball in this game. On the other side, I'm not really sure what to expect. Missouri's defense has been great and they've continued to play great in SEC play. But Vanderbilt's offense just seems unstoppable.

Missouri may have lost the Alabama game... but it was not the defense's fault at all. The defense played great.

But this Vanderbilt offense looks unstoppable. LSU is supposed to be one of the best defenses in the country.

I feel like it has to be Vanderbilt at under a FG.

SAN DIEGO STATE @ FRESNO STATE - 3:30 PM

San Diego State with back to back statement wins that's really got them right in the conversation alongside Boise State as Mountain West Championship contenders.

The side of the ball to worry about is the offense. San Diego State's offense has come on recently... but we can't forget that there were a few really ugly games earlier in the season. Fresno State's defense has been pretty tough this year but after seeing San Diego State light up Colorado State, as long as they don't lay an egg, they should be fine here.

Are we buying it? I personally think the answer is yes. Sean Lewis is a really creative offensive mind.

And I'm not sure if I'm buying Fresno's defensive numbers. They did play a good defensive game against Hawaii. But they also had home games against Nevada and Southern.

This is concerning. Colorado State's offense has been a MESS this year. They fired their coach... they've been through multiple QBs.

On the other side of the ball, San Diego State might have the best defense in the conference and that includes Boise State.

Now it's important to point out... they've played a lot of bad offenses.

I could see Fresno State moving the ball... EJ Warner can play. I don't hate an over in this one... but it's tough to play over with two super slow paced teams.

The move was to get on San Diego State early... now that there are 3.5's open, I wouldn't even be mad at a Fresno bet now. I'm not stepping in front of the Aztecs though. Gimme over 47.5.

BYU @ IOWA STATE - 3:30 PM

I'm on Iowa State in this one... think we're looking at a buy-low spot. Iowa State really needed that bye week badly. This is a team that lost both both their corners and a safety. They've had a week off to get themselves settled. S Cummings-Coleman might be back for this one, he's listed as questionable. DT Domonique Orange might be back for this one as well. BYU is coming in looking to run the ball and I believe Iowa State's defense will be prepared for it.

We are still talking about a Freshman QB and we're seeing his efficiency numbers come back down to earth the last couple games.

BYU is coming off back to back highly emotional games with no time off. 2OT game vs Arizona then the holy war. Now they immediately go to Ames to play a rested Iowa State team that's been prepping for two weeks.

On the other side, BYU's defense has been great. Iowa State's gonna struggle to run the ball in this one for sure.

But Rocco Becht is an experienced QB and this team needs a win.

I'm on Iowa State at -1.5.

ALABAMA @ SOUTH CAROLINA - 3:30 PM

Well we got a rematch for what was an amazing football game last year. South Carolina misses the 2PC to tie it. Then South Carolina gets the onside kick and has a shot at the endzone to win it.

I'm not sure if we'll see a repeat of that here... this year's Alabama team is better than last year's... and this year's South Carolina team is worse than last year's.

South Carolina's defense hasn't been cooked by big downfield throws which is good... but this team just can't seem to get off the field.

That's EXACTLY what Alabama does. They dropback to pass.. and they move the chains.

Ty Simpson had that rocky start against Florida State... since then, he's looking like the best QB in college football. RG Geno VanDeMark has been added to the injury report so maybe you could make an argument there... but I don't see how Alabama doesn't score.

And on the other side, South Carolina has the worst offense in the SEC. This offensive line has had all kinds of problems.

Now Alabama has actually had problems stopping the run.

Now Alabama has actually had problems stopping the run... also look at the opponents.

Look I think this number should be 14+... the only argument you could make is South Carolina is emptying the tank for this. They're at home... if they could pick one game to leave it all out on the field for the rest of the season, it would be this one and then the rivalry game against Clemson at the end. Alabama in a blowout.

ILLINOIS @ WASHINGTON - 3:30 PM

So I really wanna bet Washington in this one. The weather is making it tough... because I really think Demond Williams can piece Illinois' secondary up but if it's raining, that might neutralize things.

This Washington offense has really been through the ringer, scheduling wise. They've been all over the place.

Washington finally gets a home game against a struggling injured defense. We just saw them in a similar spot a couple weeks ago and they completely lit Rutgers up. Now I'm a little concerned about the LT position. Carver Willis is the starter and he's been out since the Ohio State game. He's listed as questionable so he might be back. But if he doesn't come back, the backup LT Max McCree who's been playing in his spot just got injured last week and is ruled out. LG John Mills might be back as well. He's missed the last couple games.

And if you're thinking "well Kyle the Rutgers defense is terrible"... have you watched Illinois play football recently? They really need to get Ryan Walters back... who coincidentally happens to be the DC at Washington now.

Now on the other side, Altmyer and the Illinois offense should definitely be able to score right back on Washington... but I really don't think they can keep up.

The weather and the offensive line questions make this one a little too iffy to bet. If the offensive linemen play, I would definitely be on Washington.

BAYLOR @ CINCINNATI - 4 PM

Yeah 67.5 might not be high enough... we should see a serious amount of points in this game.

Cincinnati's defense is better than it was last year... but Baylor's just too explosive to expect stops.

Cincinnati hasn't generated much of a pass rush this year and Sawyer Robertson with time to work and those weapons... it's hard to envision Baylor's offense not putting up a big number.

Remember, Baylor also has a superstar RB in Bryson Washington and Cincinnati can't stop anybody on the ground either. (He is gonna play btw)

On the other side of the ball, this Baylor defense isn't very good. It looked like they mighta been showing life for a couple games there... but then they went back to getting cooked.

Baylor's got the New Orleans Saints pass rush numbers... they blitz a lot but they're not very successful with it. Sorsby shouldn't have problems making throws on this defense.

This is one of those games where I just don't think you can make the total high enough. I'd lean Baylor at +3.5... but over 67.5 would be the move.

TEXAS @ MISSISSIPPI STATE - 7 PM

We're trusting Arch Manning in a road SEC game? In front of the cowbells?

I know this Mississippi State defense isn't great. They've certainly gotten cooked since getting into SEC play. Texas A&M and Tennessee are offenses that are so far above Texas though. And the Florida game was in the swamp.

But have you seen Texas offense? They've looked completely awful since getting into SEC play. They couldn't do anything against Kentucky last week... if it wasn't for a punt return, they might lose that game in regulation. C Cole Hutson and LG Connor Stroh are both questionable. Neither played in the Kentucky game.

Mississippi State hasn't shown much of a pass rush... but the Texas offensive line is injured and Arch Manning hasn't been very efficient from a clean pocket. Based on what we've seen so far this year, I don't see how we can trust this offense to get up and down the field in a harsh road environment.

On the other side of the ball, if you're worried about Mississippi State's offense, I completely get it. Looks like RB Fluff Bothwell is most likely going to miss another game... and this Texas defense is very strong.

We've seen Mississippi State's offense fall off now that we've gotten into SEC play.

Texas defense has been elite... but I actually want to poke some holes here. Who have they played. They played the big game against Ohio State... that was Julian Sayin's first career start. The SEC games they've played so far might be against the 3 worst offenses in the conference. They're gonna be missing DB Michael Taaffe, who just had thumb surgery. He's the team's leading tackler.

Is it crazy to say that this road game against Mississippi State's offense might be their toughest test?

TEXAS A&M @ LSU - 7:30 PM

Well LSU couldn't get it done on the road against Pavia. They didn't get blown out or anything... but Vanderbilt was in control for most of that game.

The most concerning part for LSU was the defense. The offense is really having problems this year and they've been carried by their defense. The offense actually wasn't terrible in this game... the defense couldn't get off the field.

They need to get it figured out because things aren't getting easier. Texas A&M's offense is one of the best in the country.

And I'm not sure if LeVeon Moss' injury is enough to slow this offense down. Look at their last 5 games.

Now good news for LSU is this game is at home... Saturday night in Death Valley is not an easy place to go win. They've played much better defense in their home SEC games. Their road SEC games were the worst two defensive games they've played all year and they also happen to be their two losses. Look at the competition though... they saw two bad offenses in their home games.

I personally think LSU's defense is gonna give A&M problems. The thing with Texas A&M... we've only seen two road games so far this year. Notre Dame when they were missing Leonard Moore... and if you remember, Notre Dame's defense looked terrible early in the season. A&M really relied on some explosive plays to win that one. And then Arkansas who has the worst defense in the conference. This will be by far the Texas A&M offense's toughest test.

Now you might be thinking "Kyle who cares? LSU's offense is terrible". And I get it. But it's actually looked better recently. They got WR1 Aaron Anderson back. They got LG Paul Mubenga back also. He was actually cleared for the Vanderbilt game but it looks like he didn't play. Unfortunately, they lost their LT Tyree Adams. So they're a bit healthier but just took a big loss.

I gotta say... this LSU offense does look better. The offense has had back to back efficient games. I know they didn't light the scoreboard up. We all got the first impression that LSU's offense is terrible based on the first few games. But they have been moving the ball.

And this Texas A&M defense is pretty strong... but we've seen them go on the road twice... and both times, the defense didn't look very good.

I think this is the game Texas A&M stumbles. We're all waiting for it to happen. I lean LSU on a side. The bet I placed is UNDER 49.5.

MICHIGAN @ MICHIGAN STATE - 7:30 PM

So Michigan's offense is starting to look pretty good... we do have to question the defenses they've seen though. They really struggled on the road against Oklahoma, which is understandable. Outside of that, who's the toughest defense Michigan's seen?

Now you might be thinking "well Kyle Michigan State's defense is awful"... and yeah it's been pretty bad. But look who they've played!

So when we're looking at the year-long numbers, we have to keep that in mind. This is not to say Michigan State can make stops against Michigan's offense. We just have to take note that the gap between these two units might not be as big as this graphic shows. Michigan just lost their starting LT Evan Link in the Washington game and he's been ruled out. This Michigan State defense is still injured as hell. NB Ade Willie is gonna miss another game. S Malik Spencer just got injured last week.

But you take into consideration the strength of schedule. You know Michigan State's gonna load up to take away the run and force the Freshman QB to beat em. We know Bryce Underwood is capable of doing that... but we gotta point out that his worst games as a QB so far this year have been his road starts.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan's defense hasn't been all that elite. The good news for Michigan is Michigan State's offensive line is so injured. Their starting RT Stanton Ramil has been out since Week 4. Their starting RG Kristian Phillips has been out since Week 6. Their backup OT Ashton Lepo who came in to start is also now injured.

Michigan State can't run the ball... so you already know Michigan is gonna be sending the house after Aidan Chiles. Now he's actually got really great looking numbers against the blitz so far this year... but he's gonna be in prison.

Now some good news for Michigan State... they actually played a pretty efficient game offensively last week on the road against Indiana. They opened up the game with a 13 play 7 minute FG drive. Then they had a 12 play 75 yard TD drive and were winning the game 10-7. In the 2nd half they had a 43 yard drive end in a missed FG. They had a 60 yard drive end in a TOV downs. They had a 54 yard FG drive. Michigan State only punted twice this entire game.

Chiles was really efficient throwing the ball. Indiana blitzed him a lot and Michigan State's offensive line actually gave him time to work.