CFB Week 8 Tuesday
- Kyle Kirms
- Oct 13
- 5 min read
NEW MEXICO STATE @ LIBERTY - 7 PM
Liberty's losing streak stops at 4. What's even more alarming than Liberty losing 4 straight games... is the fact that all 4 losses were by double digits. But that's in the past now, because Liberty won a football game. This final score is a bit misleading also because Liberty dominated this game. UTEP scored a TD and 2PC at the very end of the game in garbage time.
And another thing we need to point out about Liberty's losing streak... they didn't have QB Ethan Vasko for a couple of these. Is Liberty figuring it out?
Good news for Liberty, New Mexico State can't run the ball. The reason this is good news... Liberty's really been struggling to stop the run. Not only does New Mexico State not run the ball much, but when they try it, they're terrible at it. S Brylan Green is going to miss another game. He didn't play in the UTEP game.
What Liberty needs to worry about is Logan Fife. The only offense New Mexico State has is Logan Fife and the passing attack. It didn't look all that great in the first 4 games.
But Fife kinda went off against Sam Houston. He connected on a couple deep ones... he was seeing some pressure too. He really played well. NMSU got WR TK King back from injury and it was noticeable. His 1st game of the season, he had 6 rec 132 yards. They will be missing their C Kai Wheeler again.
We have seen Liberty get thrown on a couple times... for the most part, they've been strong against the pass. But there were two games where they were struggling.
Now James Madison and Old Dominion are both significantly better than New Mexico State though... and Liberty didn't get thrown on at all in their other 4 games. I don't think New Mexico State is very good... but Fife can clearly play and TK King is a weapon. I think it's unrealistic to think Liberty can completely shut this offense down.
On the other side of the ball, the matchup gets interesting. Is Liberty able to run it here? New Mexico State's defensive front has played great so far this year.
Now, we need to put the numbers into perspective though. New Mexico State hasn't played a single team that can run the ball this year.
Now Liberty's offense has been terrible... but again, we need context. QB Ethan Vasko missed two of these games. Their RB1 Evan Dickens has missed the last two games (he might be back). Their starting LT has missed all 4 of these games (he's back).
I also don't think New Mexico State's defense is nearly as good as their numbers show. They played a great game against Sam Houston State. But they lost their CB1 in that game. So now going on the road to Liberty, they're gonna be missing LB Tyler Martinez and CB Dakerric Hobbs.
I like Liberty to win comfortably here.
ARKANSAS STATE @ SOUTH ALABAMA - 7:30 PM
Arkansas State finally wins a football game and it was a huge one. Remember last year, Arkansas State was right in the mix in the Sun Belt West... they took two back-breaking losses to Texas State and Louisiana. So they got revenge for last year's loss... and honestly kept their season alive with this win here.
Remember, this Arkansas State team has gotten better every single year under Butch Jones.
They started off 1-4 and everyone kinda wrote Arkansas State off. There's an SEC loss in there. There's a Big 12 loss in there. Then back to back road losses... Kennesaw State is pretty good. The only bad loss on here is Louisiana Monroe.
With that win over Texas State, the Red Wolves are right in the mix here in the Sun Belt West. They've got Southern Miss and Troy on the schedule. So maybe we shouldn't write this team off yet.
The problem is... they're coming off that huge win over Texas State... now they're heading into a gauntlet... because South Alabama is in a "win or your season's over" situation here.
The South Alabama defensive front has really struggled with the run. They also might be missing both safeties in this game. S Ty Goodwill has missed the last couple games and has been ruled out again. Their other starting S is Wesley Miller. He got injured in Week 5. He was listed questionable in the Troy game and ended up playing though.
But there's good news for South Alabama. Arkansas State is not a rushing offense. Their offense is very centered around QB Jaylen Raynor. They haven't had much of a rushing attack at all. They've also been dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Their starting RT Aleric Watson missed last game and is questionable. Their starting C Mason Myers also missed last game, although I'm reading he might return for this one. They've also got another OL that's banged up. So Arkansas State is probably not the offense to exploit where South Alabama's defense struggles.
The pressure's all on Jaylen Raynor to win this game... and he wasn't particularly great in those road losses. South Alabama's defense isn't good... but neither is Kennesaw... neither is UL Monroe. Jaynor will make some plays... but he's gonna have to be perfect.
On the other side of the ball, this is where Arkansas State's in trouble. South Alabama is run-heavy all the way. They're 12th in the country in run frequency. Arkansas State's defense is just bad.
Look at their last 3 games... I took out Arkansas and Iowa State because that's unfair. But they just cannot stop the run. They've also got a key injury on this side. Their main ILB Terry Kirksey Jr. has been out the last 3 games and it doesn't look like he's returning.
South Alabama's been consistently running the ball all season. They ran the ball on Tulane earlier in the year... outside of the Auburn game, South Alabama has run the ball successfully on every single team they've seen. Idk how Arkansas State's defense can get off the field in this one.
South Alabama's gonna completely control this game on the ground. The only way Arkansas State can compete is if Jaylen Raynor goes complete hero-mode. I'd go South Alabama -7.5 or OVER 58.5 in this one.
FIU @ WESTERN KENTUCKY - 8 PM
I like Keyone Jenkins and I like this FIU offense... but I gotta say this is a really tough matchup.
It looks like Jenkins is gonna play. He is crucial to this team. If you don't believe me, look what happened last week when Jenkins didn't play.
This FIU offense has to throw the ball to be successful. You would think Jenkins only being 6'0... that he'd be a scrambler. He's really not. He's a pocket passer. The problem with this matchup is Western Kentucky's pass rush has been strong this year. They're also completely healthy on the defensive side, which is huge this deep into a football season.
On the other side, Western Kentucky's gonna put up points because Western Kentucky always puts up points. FIU's defense has played pretty well this year... but this is the toughest place to go in Conference USA.
Seems like McIvor is starting to get comfortable. Back to back road games where he was seeing the field well.
FIU hasn't had much of a pass rush. McIvor's been great with a clean pocket so far this year.
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