CFB Week 8 Saturday
- Kyle Kirms
- Oct 18, 2025
- 35 min read
EASTERN MICHIGAN @ MIAMI (OH) - 12 PM
This is a tough game... the recent data points for Eastern Michigan are making me question my view of this team. Earlier in the season, I trusted this offense and the defense was terrible.
But the last 3 games were easily Eastern Michigan's worst offensive games of the year... and that includes the game against Kentucky. They're really missing WR1 Terry Lockett Jr. He's missed the last two games and still leads the team in receiving. He's listed as questionable.
Here's the weird part... out of nowhere, Eastern Michigan's playing defense. They've covered the number in back to back weeks solely because of their defense. Which is truly the complete opposite of the football they were playing earlier. The weird part is their two best defensive players didn't really even play in the last one. LB Zach Mowchan only played 10 snaps and Dramarian McNulty didn't even play.
So can we count on Eastern Michigan to play a sound defensive game? I don't think Miami Ohio's offense is very good and it hasn't been great since DeQuan Finn came back from injury. Not cuz he's played poorly... I just don't think the offense is very good. They were just struggling to move the ball against Akron last week. They're still most likely gonna be missing their main RB and a backup RB Kenny Tracy and Josh Ringer. They've been missing those guys the last two games. Their RG Austin Uke might miss another game as well. He didn't play against Akron.
Now the RedHawks defense has looked great in those last two games... which is why they picked up 2 wins despite the offense stuttering. But Eastern Michigan's offense is way better than Northern Illinois and Akron. This number's too high. Eastern Michigan's been competitive and I think they'll keep in close.
Eastern Michigan +13.5 and a lean towards the under at 48.
UCONN @ BOSTON COLLEGE - 12 PM
UConn's offense came back in a major way after a really shake road game in Buffalo. Now Buffalo's got a solid MAC defense... but Ta'Quan Roberson was out that game. Buffalo played with a backup QB and I thought UConn shoulda had more control of that game. Regardless... they hung a 50 piece against FIU the following week.
Now they're matched up against Boston College team that really needs to stop the skid.
Now going on the road against Boston College is a very tough spot for UConn. BC's defense has had its problems this year. But they're playing Clemson, Pitt, Cal, Michigan State... UConn's playing a MAC schedule. So this isn't apples to apples at all.
But remember, both the Boston College defense is so injured... BC has 4 LBs questionable, 4 DBs questionable and 2 out, 3 DLs questionable... and it's showing. They're really struggling against the pass recently. This could be a problem... cuz although UConn is a stepdown in competition. This is still an offense that can throw the ball. Fagnano is a solid QB and they've got weapons. CB Amari Jackson and Townsend might come back and change thinigs but idk.
Boston College blitzes a lot but they haven't generated a ton of pressure. Regardless, Fagnano has handled blitzes well. It's supposed to be a beautiful October afternoon in Boston. I don't see any reason why UConn isn't scoring points in this game.
On the other side of the ball, Boston College should score points right back. Last year's elite UConn defense is gone. I believe they lost 9 starters from that defense. This year's defense has struggled. And I know Boston College isn't much of a rushing offense... they can 100% run the ball on UConn.
Both teams throw the ball... both teams move at a quick pace... weather's nice.
I'd go over here. I'm not betting this one cuz 57.5 is a high number. But these teams should get into the 30's. I also think Boston College wins but that injury report is a literal mile long so I can't do that either.
GEORGIA TECH @ DUKE - 12 PM
So Georgia Tech is a perfect 6-0 so far this year... but I will say both their road games were sweaty as hell. They opened the season in Boulder and that was a tie game with a minute left. Georgia Tech broke a TD run when they were running the clock out to kick the game winning FG. And then they went to Wake and that game actually went to OT. So both times we've seen Georgia Tech go on the road, they've had problems.
And this is gonna be their toughest test on the road to date. Now only is Duke the strongest team they've seen on the road so far... but the matchup is also not great. Georgia Tech is an offense that wants to run the football... that plays directly into the strength of the Duke defense.
And this Georgia Tech run game hasn't been unstoppable this year. We've actually seen two games already where Georgia Tech was struggling to get it going on the ground. We've also seen then steamroll a few teams.
Duke's defense has been basically lights out against the run so far this year. I do have to say though... I have some concerns here. The first one being... Duke hasn't seen anyone that runs the ball. Also, they're missing a couple LBs. They lost LB Nick Morris Jr. back in Week 4. He's out for the season. Now another starting LB Tre Freeman might be out. He got injured just 2 snaps into the Cal game and is listed as questionable. They've also got another LB Kendall Johnson that's missed the last 2 games and is questionable.
But even with the injuries at LB, Duke still has an elite defensive line and they're coming off a bye. So I don't think we can count on Georgia Tech's run game here. But what we might be able to count on... is Haynes King throwing the ball... because this Duke secondary has been very suspect. Remember, they've been playing this entire season without S Terry Moore and he won't be back for this one.
We know Georgia Tech as a rushing offense, but Haynes King is capable of throwing the ball and he actually seems to be playing better recently.
I'm a little bit worried that Haynes King's worst two games happened to be his two road starts. But I still think he can make throws on this Duke secondary.
Duke's pass rush has been great but Haynes King has done a great job handling pressure so far this year... he's also done a great job protecting the football. He's got 1 of only 2 QBs in the entire country that has zero TOV worthy plays. So I think Georgia Tech can move the football in this game.
The question is on the other side of the ball... is Georgia Tech gonna be able to stop this Duke offense? Cuz this unit seems to have figured it out. GT is also dealing with some injuries on this side of the ball. Their main CB Ahmari Harvey got carted off the field against VT. He's gonna miss this game. DT Akelo Stone might miss his 2nd straight game.
You don't want to be missing your main corner against this Duke offense right now. This offense is cruising.
Mensah's playing out of his mind right now.
Now the good news for Georgia Tech is they've been tough to pass on. Obviously, they've had Ahmari Harvey on the field for these games. But the weakness of this Georgia Tech defense has been stopping the run. Duke is a passing offense.
But I really dk if we can count on this defense. They haven't seen any offenses as strong as this Duke offense. The only comparison you could make is the Clemson game. But it was at home and Clemson's offense was extremely injured in this game. And Clemson was moving the ball on em in this game.
I personally think Duke's the stronger team. I was actually considering taking Georgia Tech when it was at 3... but the more I looked at this game, the more I'm thinking that I don't want to step in front of this Duke train right now. They're rolling teams.
Coming off a bye week, it has to be Duke at under a FG.
LSU @ VANDERBILT - 12 PM
So will Vanderbilt rebound after the tough loss in Tuscaloosa? They've got a home game against LSU. You wouldn't think LSU is 5-1 the way their offense has looked... but here they are.
We do have to give LSU some credit though. I know they finished the game with only 20 points but the offense did look better. Keep in mind, LSU had 1st and goal three times to score 3 combined points. South Carolina's TD came on a 72 yard TD run.
Look at the offensive numbers in that game. They also should be healthier. Star RB Caden Durham was banged up in the Ole Miss game. He's good to go. WR1 Aaron Anderson also got injured in the Ole Miss game. He didn't play against South Carolina. There's a chance he's back for this one. Their starting LG Paul Mubenga missed the South Carolina game. They expect him to be back for this one. And on top of all that, QB Garrett Nussmeier has been dealing with injuries for months now. All through camp and nagging through a few games this year. Brian Kelly is saying that Nussmeier is "the healthiest he's been all season".
I actually think we see LSU's offense look pretty sharp in this one. I know Vanderbilt has played some great defense this year. We kinda saw that come crashing down last week. And looking back at the opponents, Virginia Tech's offense looks terrible. South Carolina's offense looks terrible. Georgia State is awful. And Utah State was actually scoring on Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt's secondary also has a few guys banged up although it looks like 2 of the 3 are gonna play. CB Marlon Jones looks to be the only one that's probably not playing. Bye week helped.
The other side of the ball is gonna be quite the battle. Both of these units look excellent. Couple injuries to the LSU defensive line which could be concerning but from what I'm reading, they both have a good chance of playing. EDGE Jimari Butler and DT Bernard Gooden both got banged up in the South Carolina game.
We really haven't seen LSU's defense play a bad game yet. Week 5 @ Ole Miss was the game they lost. This was by far their worst defensive game and it still wasn't that bad. And all of the damage came through the air. LSU defense really hasn't been run on yet this year.
Now you might say "Kyle this Vanderbilt offense is as good as Ole Miss' offense" and I think that's fair. But they're a run-first offense. And also, when you take a closer look at Vanderbilt's body of work, I gotta say that the offense looks slightly less impressive. We thought Virginia Tech was such a powerful statement... well it turns out that Virginia Tech is terrible and we saw Old Dominion do the same exact thing to them. Their other FBS games are Utah State and Georgia State... not good defenses.
I think the market on Vanderbilt has come too far. Remember, this team was catching more than a FG against South Carolina just a month ago. LSU was just laying almost double digits to South Carolina. Now we've got Vanderbilt as a favorite? I like LSU here... I think they win outright.
WASHINGTON @ MICHIGAN - 12 PM
I know it hasn't looked pretty... but Washington was put into a couple tough situations and still managed to turn things around come out with a couple wins... in fact, they ended up covering a big number against Rutgers after being in an early hole.
Now things don't get easier for Washington... they're heading on the road to the Big House. But this offense has shown us that they can still score points through adversity. In fact, since halftime of the Maryland game, this looks like a powerhouse offense. Now I do have some concerns for Washington's offense here. They might still be missing two starters on the offensive line. LG John Mills and LT Carver Willis. They didn't play against Rutgers... but Rutgers injured defensive front isn't really the unit that can exploit that. Michigan's defensive front can. Michigan got CB Zeke Berry back also so they're healthy on this side of the ball.
So what do we think of this Michigan defense? There's two ways to interpret this data. You could say "hey this Michigan defense is elite at home"... and you'd be accurate in saying that. The defense has actually looked pretty shaky on the road. But we also have to point out that the offenses they've seen at home are pretty terrible. The best offense they've seen is New Mexico in the opener with a brand new coaching staff and roster.
You could say... every single time Michigan's seen a good QB, they've been thrown on.
Demond Williams is definitely a good QB... in fact, I know you look at the final score, you'd think Ohio State shut him down. I personally thought he handled himself well in that game. And he's done an amazing job handling the blitz and pass rushes all season.
On the other side, this is where this matchup gets tough. I feel like we don't know how good either of these units are. On paper, Washington's defense has been great against the run and vulnerable to the pass... which matches up well against Michigan because we know they're trying to run the ball.
Michigan was unable to run the ball on Oklahoma... but that was on the road in Norman against what might be the best defensive line in the country. They've been able to run the ball in their 3 Big Ten games. Remember this offensive line just got LG Giovanni El-Hadi back last week who had missed the previous 3 games. I think Brady Norton is gonna miss another one.
What makes this matchup interesting is... nobody's really run the ball on Washington so far this year. Even Ohio State was struggling to run the ball on em. That's pretty much the only rushing attack they've seen so far this year... and they've been vulnerable to the pass. But they've done a great job up front.
So this Washington secondary looks to be a little vulnerable. Do we trust Bryce Underwood to exploit it? He seems to be getting comfortable... coming off his best two games of the year. But USC's defense isn't good and Wisconsin is just crumbling.
This is a great game... I do understand why Michigan's laying more than 3 here... but I thought 6.5 was a high so I jumped on Washington. I'd still be on Washington at 5.5. I'd make the game a strong 4.
ARIZONA @ HOUSTON - 12 PM
Really bummed about Arizona. I really liked the way they played in the Kansas State win and I was just coming around to becoming a fan of this team. A road loss to Iowa State hurt... but dropping the BYU game in 2OT was a backbreaker.
Now the good news is... it's the Big 12. This conference is a circus. The next 6 weeks are going to be wild... but it's gonna be tough to get to Arlington with 2 conference losses.
Now the good news for Arizona is they've got some winnable games coming up, including this one. I've said multiple times that I don't believe this Houston team is any good. I'm more referring to the offense when I say that though... the defense has been formidable.
The thing with Houston's defense... they haven't seen any QBs. The only time they saw a decent passing attack was Week 6 against Texas Tech and they got cooked through the air in that game at home.
The problem is... Fifita hasn't looked all that great in conference play. He did light up Oklahoma State... but I saw Tulsa's backup QB light up Oklahoma State also. If you take that game out and look at his other 3 conference games, the passing numbers don't look very efficient.
Houston's pass rush hasn't been very effective... but they do blitz a lot and Fifita doesn't have the best looking numbers when blitzed so far this year.
I really don't have a ton of faith in the Arizona offense here. Maybe they can run the ball a bit... the real reason I took Arizona in this one is the other side of the ball. Houston's offense looks absolutely terrible.
They have no run game what-so-ever... despite being a team that runs the ball a lot. These numbers include games against Oregon State and Oklahoma State. Those are not good defenses.
Arizona has absolutely elite numbers against the pass so far this year. Now it does concern me a little that the only time we've seen Arizona go on the road so far this year, they got cooked through the air. But that was @ Iowa State... Rocco Becht is a much better quarterback than Conner Weigman. But they were lights out against the pass in every other game they played.
Maybe Conner Weigman beats me... in my opinion, that's the path to me losing this bet. But I got a great number in this one. I'm on Arizona +2.5.
BAYLOR @ TCU - 12 PM
This might one of those games where they just can't make the total high enough. Both these teams top 15 in pace. Both these teams top 15 in pass frequency.
Now in terms of defense, TCU has been pretty solid. This graphic doesn't really tell the whole story. They've been better than these numbers indicate. I will say though... it's concerning that they're got shaky numbers against the pass before playing Baylor.
If you're worried about Baylor scoring points on the road. It's not a concern. Sawyer Robertson set the world on fire both times he went on the road.
And what has TCU's defense struggled with this year? Explosive plays... that happens to be Baylor's specialty. Baylor's also healthier on this side of the ball. Starting RG Omar Aigbedion missed the Kansas State game. He's expected to return for this one. And their star RB Bryson Washington has been banged up... only 19 carries in the last two games. The bye week must have been what he needed cuz they took him off the injury report. TCU is most likely getting CB Avery Helm back though which is big. He hasn't played since Week 1 against Auburn.
Baylor's gonna score in this game without a doubt... the question is can they make stops? Now TCU might have some concerns on the offensive line here. Their starting C Coltin Deery and LG Cade Bennett are both listed as questionable. Neither of them has missed a game yet this year so these would be new injuries.
This could be a problem... because TCU has really had problems getting anything going on the ground. Now they're a pass-first offense all the way so maybe this is a non-issue. But if they don't pose a threat on the ground, certainly that makes Aranda's job easier calling the defense.
And the lack of run game has been noticeable. Now it's TCU... Hoover's still averaging 318 YPG in these... but the efficiency numbers are definitely down.
Now none of this may matter... because Baylor doesn't have a strong defense. But we should probably give Baylor a little bit of credit... the defense has been slightly better.
I don't think this game should be a full 3. Baylor healthier... coming off a bye week. This should be 1.5. I'll take Baylor.
ARMY @ TULANE - 12 PM
Tulane is looking to get some serious revenge for the absolute beatdown we saw in the AAC Championship game last year. That was a slaughter.
I gotta say... definitely concerning that Tulane seems to be struggling against the run so far this year. That's definitely not what you want to see when you're playing Army. Remember, they lost their ILB and leading tackler Dickson Agu for the season.
But this defense has been so strong against the pass. Duke, ECU, Northwestern... none of these teams could throw the ball on Tulane. They only team that successfully through the ball on this defense so far this year was Ole Miss. That's an SEC team and they were on the road in Oxford. Army doesn't pose any sort of threat to Tulane through the air... they should be in position to sell all the way out to stop this offense.
This is Greg Gasparato's 2nd year as DC... and yes, he got beatdown by Army last year. But let's not forget that Navy also runs an option offense and Tulane completely smoked Navy just a few weeks before. So it's not like Gasparato doesn't know how to defend the option.
I really don't care that Tulane's been struggling against the run. They played on Thursday night last week so they've had a couple extra days to prepare. There's a revenge angle. Army's coming off back to back games against cake defenses... Charlotte. We saw what this Army offense looked like on the road at ECU. That's the last tough team they played.
On the other side of the ball, we're gonna need Retzlaff to play well. Army's defense has shown their vulnerable to the pass. They seem to be doing a decent job up front.
Army hasn't had much of a pass rush this year. The table's set for Retzlaff to have a big game through the air. It's been a pretty underwhelming year so far for him throwing the ball though. He's done just as much damage with his legs.
Good news for Tulane though... Retzlaff is coming off by far his best game of the season throwing the ball. ECU's run defense is great... so Retzlaff needed to use his arm to win this one and he was very good. Army's secondary is not good. Barring laying a complete egg, Tulane should dominate this game.
Anything under 10, it would be Tulane.
WEST VIRGINIA @ UCF - 1 PM
West Virginia's in a bit of a tailspin here. They scored a couple TDs late to make the BYU game look a bit more interesting than it was.
The top 2 West Virginia's QBs are hurt. It looks like Max Brown is listed as probable... I guess he would be QB4. I believe Khalil Wilkins is going to get another start. He's a Freshman.
I kinda don't think it's crazy to say West Virginia can run the ball in this game. I know UCF's got great numbers against the run so far this year... but Kansas State steamrolled em. Kansas and Cincinnati didn't have to run because the pass was there all game.
I kinda don't think it's crazy to say West Virginia can run the ball in this game. I know UCF's got great numbers against the run so far this year... but Kansas State steamrolled em. Kansas and Cincinnati didn't have to run because the pass was there all game. C Landen Livingston should be back for this one. They're still very injured at the RB position but I really don't think this UCF defense is very good. They fooled us in the North Carolina game. UCF is gonna be missing EDGE Sincere Edwards as well.
The other side of the ball... in my opinion, it comes down to one thing. How healthy is Tayven Jackson? Remember, he injured his shoulder... then he came back the following week and injured the SAME shoulder. They're saying he's healthy but I'm definitely a bit skeptical.
We have seen West Virginia's defense fall off now that they're starting to see tougher competition. If Tayven Jackson is playing, they're gonna move the ball. But if he doesn't play... remember their backup QB Jacurri Brown has also been inactive with injuries. It would be their 3rd string.
If Tayven Jackson is fully healthy, this game should fly over 46.5. If he doesn't play though, I'd lean towards West Virginia at +7.5.
PURDUE @ NORTHWESTERN - 3 PM
I agree with this one moving off 3.5... but if this drops below 3, that might be a bit far. This Northwestern defense is playing better. DB Josh Fussell returned from injury for Northwestern. Remember LB Karlaftis is out for the season.
The question is... is this sustainable for Purdue? This rushing attack came out of nowhere. We've seen a dominant run game in back to back weeks from Purdue. I personally don't think this is sustainable and I'm not sure if they're able to go to Northwestern and run the ball like this. Starting LG Jalen St. John is injured and he might miss this one.
Northwestern just saw UCLA and Penn State in their last two conference games. Both of those teams can run the ball... they did a solid job limiting them on the ground and they won both of these games.
And I'm not sure how much of a threat Purdue poses through the air in this one. Remember, Northwestern is playing in that temporary stadium by the lake... it's usually windy as hell. We've seen Ryan Browne's passing numbers fall off. I think Purdue is gonna struggle to move the ball in this game.
The question is... do we think Northwestern's able to run the ball on Purdue and that's a tough one because I gotta give Barry Odom some credit. This Purdue defensive front has been pretty tough this year.
That defensive front has been rock solid in the last two games.
But Northwestern's got a tough run game. I was not expecting this... but look at Northwestern's numbers on the ground in the last 4 games. They've been tough to get off the field. The offensive line is completely healthy which is huge.
And don't look now... but even Preston Stone is starting to resemble the 5 star recruit he once was. He's been efficient throwing the ball.
This number should be 3... so if I can get a 2.5 at any point, I'd play Northwestern.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ OHIO - 3:30 PM
I know everyone's concerned about this Ball State game. I was on Ball State in this one... it was a terrible spot for Ohio. They were banged up on the defensive side of the ball... they were coming off a game against Bowling Green. Ball State was coming off a bye week.
I personally believe Ohio is going to be healthier on the defensive side of the ball. DT Pius Odjugo was questionable heading into the Ball State game and I thought they might rest him to give him the bye week. He's listed as questionable but I think he plays. LB Jack Fries hasn't played since Week 2. I think there's a chance he's back.
I know Ohio's defense is not very good... but they're coming off a bye week against Northern Illinois' offense. This offense has been pretty terrible all year. We just saw them struggling to move the ball against Eastern Michigan last week.
I know Northern Illinois' defense has been pretty strong this year... but this graphic might be a bit skewed. Remember, Ohio's played games against Rutgers, West Virginia, Ohio State.
I know Ohio had a shaky game on the road at Ball State in a terrible spot. But let's not forget how strong this offense looked in the two home games before going out on the road. We're talking about Parker Navarro, at home, coming off a bye week... on Senior Day?
I disagree with the market move here. I like Ohio in a blowout.
OLD DOMINION @ JAMES MADISON - 3:30 PM
Huge game here... the winner of this one most likely plays in the Sun Belt Championship game. I know that's wild to say on October 17th... but these two teams are far better than the competition on this side of the conference.
And thanks to this beauty right here... Old Dominion is now in a spot where they need a win or it's over.
Old Dominion has been the stronger team so far this year if you look at the overall body of work. But this is definitely a tough matchup... first of all, they're going on the road to see the top dog in the conference. Place is gonna be going nuts.
This James Madison defense has been elite against the run which is exactly what Old Dominion needs to do. Now to be fair... James Madison hasn't seen a rushing attack like this. They've played mostly passing offenses. They saw Liberty and Louisville... neither of them have a QB that can run the ball like Colton Joseph. So his is a very different matchup than we've seen so far for JMU's defense.
I personally think Old Dominion moves the ball. Look at their numbers just in their road games. This includes their two losses. The offense still looked fine in all 3 of these.
On the other side, Old Dominion should have the advantage. James Madison's offense has been pretty disappointing so far this season. But it looks like they're gonna be getting RB George Pettaway back which is huge. He really hasn't been 100% all season. He had 10 carries in the opener and has barely played since.
I'm still not sure if James Madison is able to score on Old Dominion's defense though. And you might be thinking "Kyle Marshall just scored 48"... man all those points were off turnovers. Old Dominion turned the ball over 5 times in that game. S Jermoe Carter and leading tackler is probable btw. He was banged up but I'm reading he's gonna play.
Look... I think Old Dominion's the better team so I'd lean them at +2.5. But there's also the big brother effect.
SMU @ CLEMSON - 3:30 PM
Rematch of the ACC Championship game last year. Clemson actually had a 24-7 lead at half and got the ball in the 3rd quarter. SMU came all the way back to tie it 31-31. Clemson then went on to kick the game winning FG in what was one of the best postseason College Football games on the year.
Obviously, the lead story in this one is Cade Klubnik. He sprained an ankle last week in the Boston College game and is listed as a game-time decision. The backup QB came in and immediately threw an interception. Here's the thing... and I know this sounds crazy to say... how much of a dropoff are we expecting here? We know Klubnik can play... but he hasn't looked that great this year. SMU doesn't have much of a pass rush. Christopher Vizzina is a 4 star... top 10 QB recruit in the 2023 class. He's been with Clemson for two years now... he knows the system.
I know SMU's year long defensive numbers look pretty good.
But both times they saw good offenses, they got cooked through the air. I'm not suggesting that Clemson's backup QB can do this... but SMU's defense is not what it was last year. They don't have much of a pass rush. SMU might be missing one of their main CBs Jaelyn Davis-Robinson also who hasn't missed a game yet. They're also missing LB Justin Medlock... also the first game he'll miss this year.
The other side of the ball should be a really good matchup.
SMU's offense looks good... not much of a run game... but Jennings can definitely put points on the board. I do have to say though... what's the best defense SMU has seen so far this year? TCU? Clemson is BY FAR the best defense they've seen and it's actually not close. SMU might also be missing WR Romello Brinson (leading receiver). He was added to the injury report this week and it's looking like he won't play.
I like Clemson. I think they win comfortably... obviously Klubnik being questionable definitely throws a wrench into things though.
TEXAS TECH @ ARIZONA STATE - 4 PM
So I actually don't think it's crazy to say Arizona State's defense can make some stops in this one. I know these numbers don't really show it... but the strength of schedule with these two units are not even close to comparable.
Look at all these offenses Arizona State has seen. Even Texas State has a pretty powerful offense. This defense has been seeing nothing but good offenses all season.
Meanwhile... Texas Tech has these elite offensive numbers. How many good defenses have then seen? Utah... and who else? Houston is a decent defense. Who's the 3rd best defense they've seen? Kansas? Oregon State?
And we can't completely forget about previous years... we've watched Behren Morton play for 3 years now. What's his M.O.? He's elite at home in Lubbock... not as trustworthy on the road. And you know what his two worst games were so far this year? His two road games.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see Texas Tech's offense struggle for the first time this year... the problem is... man if Sam Leavitt doesn't play, how the hell is Arizona State going to move the football? This billion dollar Texas Tech defensive line looks nuts.
They generate a ton of pressure and they do it without even blitzing.
The only path to Arizona State competing in this game... is on the ground. Texas Tech's got elite numbers against the run... but the 44% success rate against Utah and Kansas indicates if you hand the ball off, you can move the chains. It's slow... it's ugly. But it's possible. And that kinda fits this Arizona State offense. It's a physical run game.
They're at home... they're coming off an embarrassing loss. If Sam Leavitt plays, I think Arizona State's live in this game.
Sun Devils up! (if Leavitt plays)
OKLAHOMA @ SOUTH CAROLINA - 12:45 PM
Man who is scoring points in this game? I don't trust either of these offenses. Oklahoma's offense was terrible last week against Texas and South Carolina's was pretty much just as bad.
So obviously, Mateer is back. His hand was literally bleeding during the game... but from what I'm reading, he's fully medically cleared. I think we're all wondering how healthy this guy is. He certainly didn't play well against Texas at all.
This is concerning... cuz just like I was saying last week, I don't think this Oklahoma offense is very good. All of their offensive plays so far this year have been Mateer doing something Heisman-like. Remember, this was probably the worst offense in the SEC last year. I don't think it's much better this year. The only difference is they brought in a superstar to play QB. If he's not 100%, how can we trust Oklahoma to move the ball? We know they can't run it, just like they couldn't run it last year. Remember, this Oklahoma offensive line is not in good shape. Derek Simmons and Logan Howland both missed the Texas game and I'm pretty sure they're both gonna miss this one as well.
So I doubt Oklahoma runs the ball here... the one aspect of South Carolina that I trust is their pass rush. We've got Mateer... who knows how healthy he is... behind a hobbled offensive line. It just doesn't sound great for Oklahoma's offense.
You gotta keep in mind, we still haven't seen Oklahoma play a real road game. They're only road game so far was against Temple. So in addition to all the other concerns, we're also talking about Mateer's first road SEC game.
The problem is... what are we expecting South Carolina's offense to do in this game? We talked about Oklahoma's offensive line problems? That's nothing compared to South Carolina's. Starting RT Cason Henry hasn't played since Week 4. He's listed as questionable but the phrasing was he's "hopefully nearing a return". Doesn't sound great. LG Shredick Sarratt Jr. got injured in the LSU game. He's listed as questionable. He was already a backup because starting LG Markee Anderson got injured in Week 1 vs VA Tech and will not be back for this one. Nolan Hay backup IOL questionable (played in place of Markee Anderson).
They're matched up against the best defensive line in the country. These are the Oklahoma defensive numbers from only their Power 4 games.
South Carolina is an offense that wants to run the ball, but they haven't been able to run the ball against any of their SEC opponents so far this year. I very seriously doubt they can run the ball on Oklahoma.
Lanoris Sellers is gonna be in prison in this game. He's also a guy that tends to hold onto the football. This is an awful matchup for South Carolina's offense.
Remember, even in the Kentucky game they won, the South Carolina offense wasn't very efficient. I suppose you could say that the only weakness of this Oklahoma defense so far this year is they've given up some explosive plays... and that's pretty much the only thing South Carolina is good at... creating big plays. But look at the havoc numbers. Oklahoma is going to live in the backfield.
I originally was leaning South Carolina in this one but idk how the offense does anything. If Mateer's healthy, he'll make plays cuz he's that good. I actually think 5.5 is warranted. I'd lean Oklahoma but I'd need a 3.5/4 to actually place the bet. I shoulda acted earlier.
BUFFALO @ UMASS - 2:30 PM
Good lord UMass. Kent State took the opening kickoff to the house. QB Dru DeShields threw 4 TDs in the game.
How are these numbers real? They were missing WR1 Jacquon Gibson and RB1 Rocko Griffin (both are listed as questionable in this one)... but still there's no excuse for these numbers. This is awful. UMass has now scored zero points in the 2nd half of 4 straight football games.
As far as this matchup... I gotta say that I'm considering taking the Minutemen. Buffalo's offense has not been great so far this year... this is an offense that needs to run the ball. Run defense seems to be the strength of this UMass team. It's terrible but it's less terrible than the rest of these numbers.
If you're thinking "how can you possibly trust UMass' defense?". Trust me I get it... but Buffalo was having problems moving the ball against Eastern Michigan, who's one of the worst defenses in the conference and one of the worst in the entire country. Remember 7 of their points came in OT. They were missing their starting C Jake Timm in this game and he's listed as questionable for this one.
I don't trust the Buffalo offense at all... but the UMass defense is also dealing with injuries. 2 of their top 4 corners are listed as questionable. Also DD Snyder is supposed to be starting at safety. He hasn't played since Week 3 and is listed as questionable.
On the other side of the ball, UMass could really use their RB1 and WR1 back... this offense is terrible. But they are a passing offense and I've been pretty vocal about how I think Buffalo secondary is vulnerable.
We saw Buffalo get thrown on by Kent State. Kent State gave these guys a game and it was mostly through the air.
I know Buffalo's coming off a bye week and had two weeks to prepare for this... but who is Buffalo to be laying a number like this on the road? UMass +16.5.
WYOMING @ AIR FORCE - 3:30 PM
This Air Force defense is truly awful. They've been the worst pass defense in the FBS on paper so far this year... and Wyoming does have a QB in Kaden Anderson.
Wyoming's offense hasn't looked very good at all. They beat Akron 10-0 in the opener. They couldn't move the ball on UNLV. The point I'm making is just because Air Force's defense looks bad... doesn't mean we can automatically pencil Wyoming in for a big offensive game.
And it might be a little bit of a buy-low on the Air Force defense. I'm not saying they're good at all. On top of that, they're dealing with some injuries... but we do have to admit that they've seen a very tough schedule in terms of offenses. Who's the worst offense that Air Force has seen in the last 5 games? Hawaii? Hawaii just hung 44 points on the road at Utah State last week. Wyoming is a huge step down in competition.
The Wyoming defense isn't terrible... but this Air Force offense is a machine. They keep losing games so it's not really being noticed. They're one of the most efficient offenses in the country so far this season.
And I'm not worried to the injuries at WR. Both Tre Roberson and Quin Smith didn't play last week... Air Force put up 48 points and averaged 7.27 YPP on the road @ UNLV in that game.
Wyoming's defense played well in their last two... but both those games were at home. The last time they went on the road, they got completely smoked by Colorado... an offense that I don't even think is as strong as Air Force's. Wyoming always tends to play better defense at home in Laramie.
I think Air Force might boatrace em.
UNLV @ BOISE STATE - 3:30 PM
UNLV gets another shot at these guys. They shoulda had em in Week 9 last year... and then they completely laid an egg in the Mountain West Championship game. Now these were Barry Odom's teams.
So far, Dan Mullen has managed to put up some really efficient offensive numbers. UNLV hasn't looked amazing as a whole, but the offense can definitely score.
It's definitely concerning that Colandrea's worst two games this year by far are the two tough road games. Now, Laramie is a tough place to go play and Miami-OH has an underrated defense. But we're talking about going to Boise to play the top team in the conference. Not exactly what you like to see.
Boise State's defense has played great at home. They've been shaky on the road... now that probably could be due to the fact that they've seen much tougher opponents on the road. In fact, UNLV's offense will be the toughest they've seen at home so far this year. Boise State might still be missing DB Davon Banks again. He's listed as questionable. But they just got another DB back from injury Jaden Mackey. So they actually might be healthier on this side of the ball.
Boise State's defensive front has been tough... it's the pass they've had problems with in these games against stronger offenses. So UNLV needs Colandrea to have a good game if they want a shot at winning this. The good news is Colandrea's actually handled himself well under pressure so far this year and UNLV's offensive line is fully in tact.
UNLV will probably be able to move the ball in this game. The problem is on the other side of the ball. This is a tough matchup.
They played a great defensive game against Wyoming... and I suppose we'll give em some credit for that. It was a road game. But Wyoming's offense is not on the same planet as Boise's on paper. UNLV's defense has struggled in mostly all their other games with the exception of Sam Houston State.
Now here's the good news for UNLV. They're having serious problems stopping the run... and idk what's going on with Boise's run game right now.
So we're thinking "who cares? Madsen can piece UNLV up". And that's probably true. But I gotta say... Maddux Madsen might be guilty of racking up some really nice looking stats against some terrible defenses.
Look at his numbers the two times he saw good defenses.
Now UNLV's defense isn't good. But they actually have generated some pressure... and they do it without sending extra rushers... which seems to be the recipe to beat this Boise State team.
I understand the big number... and I agree with the market that UNLV is a terrible 6-0 team... but this is a bit much. UNLV +12.5.
TEXAS A&M @ ARKANSAS - 3:30 PM
So I suppose the question is... how big of a loss is Le'Veon Moss? He's going to miss a "significant amount of time". They've got Rueben Owens... who's actually averaging 5.8 YPC. But missing the star RB definitely hurts. The good news for Texas A&M is... Arkansas' defense is next-level awful.
This defense is getting lit up through the air, on the ground... basically offenses are doing whatever they want to this Arkansas defense. They're still gonna be missing DT David Oke.
And if you're thinking "oh well Kyle this game's on the road though. Texas A&M has played most of their games at home". Ok that's fair... but we did see Texas A&M go on the road once this year. They hung 41 points on Notre Dame in South Bend. We don't even have to spend anymore time on this side of the ball. Everything on paper, indicates that Texas A&M should score north of 35 points in this game, even without Le'Veon Moss.
The more interesting matchup is on the other side of the ball... cuz I think most people are thinking "well Arkansas will go shot for shot with Texas A&M". And it is true, Arkansas' offense has been good this year.
I don't think people realize how good this Texas A&M defense looks right now though. Look at the numbers from their last 3 games. This against 3 SEC opponents... and they've been playing missing two starters. Both S Bryce Anderson and LB Scooby Williams returned last week, which puts them at full strength. This might be the best defense in the country.
Taylen Green's got great numbers against the blitz... and great numbers when given a clean pocket. Texas A&M gives you neither of those things. They generate a ton of pressure... and they do it without blitzing much. This is a really tough matchup for Arkansas.
It does look like this team wants to play for Bobby Petrino. They put up a fight last week on the road at Tennessee. But this year's Tennessee defense is nothing like last year's. They lost both their starting corners for the year. Texas A&M's defense is a step above Tennessee's.
Texas A&M's a wagon. I'd only lay it here. I'd make this game closer to 10.
OLE MISS @ GEORGIA - 3:30 PM
So Ole Miss might gotten caught in the old sandwich spot last week. You've got a random home game against Washington State right in between two of the biggest games of the year, LSU and Georgia. So I'm not reading too much into that one.
Chambliss played well. In fact, the offense had efficient numbers. I'm not worried about this game.
The path is there for Ole Miss to put up points in this one. Georgia's defense has struggled against the pass all year.
They did put up solid numbers against the pass in their last two games and I don't wanna just sweep that under the rug. But Kentucky has a Freshman QB starting who's really struggling... and Auburn can't really throw the ball either.
The two games before that when they actually saw QBs that can throw the ball, Georgia's defense didn't look good at all. They got thrown up badly in the Alabama and Tennessee games. Now, maybe you could say "that was earlier in the season and Georgia's defense has improved". I think that would be fair, but I'm gonna need to see them play good defense against a team that can actually throw the ball first.
Georgia hasn't been generating a ton of pressure this year. Based on what we've seen so far, I think it's safe to count on Ole Miss to move the ball in this game.
The other side of the ball... this is where I just don't think Ole Miss can compete. Remember, all those NFL caliber players on last year's Ole Miss defense are gone... and we've really seen this defensive front struggle so far this year.
Ole Miss did play one good defensive game against LSU's rushing attack. But outside of that, pretty much every single one of Ole Miss' opponents was able to run the ball. That includes Tulane and even Washington State. Although Washington State had a 44 yard run in there that kinda padded those numbers a bit. But regardless, the Ole Miss defensive front is a concern.
This Georgia run game may not be what it used to be... and they were definitely struggling to run it on the road at Auburn last Saturday. But they were able to run the ball Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky. Also their RB1 Chauncey Bowens left the Auburn game injured. He's good to go for this one. In addition to that, Georgia just got LT Monroe Freeling back and they might be getting RT Earnest Greene III back also. He dressed for the Auburn game but didn't play. So Georgia's offensive line could be the healthiest it's been since Week 1.
And in addition to the run, do we trust Ole Miss to get pressure on Gunner Stockton? The pass rush hasn't been great this year. Georgia's offense at home should have no problems scoring on Ole Miss. Remember, this is a revenge spot for Georgia. Jaxson Dart beat Georgia last year in the rain.
Georgia should score in this game... Ole Miss is gonna have to keep up. Playing from behind, running the fast pace we've seen from them so far? We should see points.
I'm on OVER 52.5.
MISSISSIPPI STATE @ FLORIDA - 4:15 PM
This is a really tough place for Mississippi State to try and go score points. Say what you want about Florida's offense, but the defense has been excellent. And this Mississippi State offense is missing a couple key players. RB Fluff Bothwell is listed as doubtful after getting carted off in the TAMU game. RT Albert Reese IV got injured in the Tennessee game and he hasn't practiced. He is listed as questionable. Florida's defense is missing a couple pieces also. DT Caleb Banks came back for one game and is now out again. They're also thin at corner with Aaron Gates and Dijon Johnson both out.
I definitely don't like how Mississippi State's offense kinda came to a crashing halt once we got into SEC play. It looked great early in the season.
MARYLAND @ UCLA - 7 PM
Maryland failed to pick up either one of these wins. Washington is a game they absolutely shoulda won. Last week, they were lucky to be close. But regardless... two home conference games that were winnable... two losses.
Now they fly 3000 miles to play a UCLA team that's kind of on the opposite trajectory. UCLA looks pretty damn good the last couple games.
Maryland's gotta figure out how to stop UCLA on the ground. Other aspects of the game are starting to come around for the Bruins... but they've been running the ball for most of the year.
This Maryland team had played great defense against the run all season... but they hadn't played anybody that can run it. Last week, Nebraska completely steamrolled this team. Now they fly all the way out to the west coast?
We don't have a huge sample size of Maryland going out west. It only happened once last year and it was a trip to Eugene. It's definitely not fair to compare a game @ Oregon to a game @ UCLA. But we do know that these Big Ten teams have really struggled with the cross-country trip since the merger.
Now on the other side of the ball, this is where Maryland should be able to compete because UCLA's defense has been terrible. But Maryland's offense has looked pretty stale also.
It's actually crazy... if you look at the game logs, Maryland really had one efficient offensive game this entire season.
This UCLA defense still sucks... but it does seem to be at least trending in the right direction. It hasn't been quite as embarrassing as the first 3 games.
UCLA should score... Maryland will be throwing the ball and they move fast. I like UCLA in a high scoring win.
TEXAS @ KENTUCKY - 7 PM
Look this was a great win. I had 2u on Texas ML. I loved it... but are we joking with this line?
What? We just forgot everything that happened before that game? We forgot how Arch Manning looked in his first two road games before that? Yes, I know going to Lexington isn't quite the same as going to Columbus or Gainesville... but my concerns with the Texas offense are still there. Their starting C Cole Hutson is gonna miss this game. Their starting LG is gonna miss this game.
We saw Tre Wisner looking healthy... made a few nice runs which is huge for Texas. But Kentucky's defensive front has actually played alright this year.
What Kentucky has struggled with so far in these SEC games... is the pass. You trust Arch Manning to go exploit that? He hasn't shown me he can do it. He played ok in the Oklahoma game... but he didn't win that game. He played well enough not to lose it. We're not just talking about winning... we're talking about winning by margin. Kentucky's getting their star CB DJ Waller Jr. back for this game. He hasn't played since Week 1. They're also getting CB Jaden Smith back. That's probably their CB4 who's also been out multiple weeks.
Look I get it... it's Kentucky's offense against Texas defense.
But I wouldn't be surprised if Kentucky is able to get into the endzone a couple times in this game. They're coming off a bye week against a Texas team that's coming off their Super Bowl. Also... Kentucky's offense has looked much better in their home games. I know they played easier opponents at home... but you gotta remember, the last two times we've seen Kentucky play was @ Georgia and @ South Carolina. So back at home... coming off a bye week. This could be a buy low spot on this offense.
I think this number's way too high. I'm on Kentucky at +13.5.
TENNESSEE @ ALABAMA - 7:30 PM
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USC @ NOTRE DAME - 7:30 PM
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UTAH @ BYU - 8 PM
This is an absolute battle. Utah's offense has been an absolute wagon in every game except the Texas Tech game... and BYU's defense has looked extremely strong all season.
After the Texas Tech game, we were kinda like "oh wow this Utah offense might not be that good. They beat up on some bad teams but as soon as they saw real competition, they got shut down". But that got silenced... because they went on the road to Morgantown and lit up a respectable West Virginia defense... then they followed that up by lighting up a good Arizona State defense.
And the thing with BYU's defense... what's the most impressive data point here?
If you isolate the games against Arizona and Colorado... which is really their only somewhat respectable Big 12 data points here. They don't look that impressive... and I personally don't even think Arizona or Colorado have particularly great offenses. Nowhere near Utah. It looks like BYU has some good news though. Starting LB Jack Kelly is expected to return. He's missed the last two. DT Anisi Purcell is set to return after missing a game. They did just lose S Raider Dumani though. He just got injured in the Arizona game and isn't expected to play.
On the other side of the ball, we've seen BYU run the ball consistently against basically everyone they've seen. Utah's defense has been great... can they go into Provo and stop this run game?
This run game seems to be getting stronger as the year cruises along too. Their last 3 games were all against respectable defenses and none of them could get BYU's offense off the field.
And we thought that Texas Tech game as a fluke and this Utah defense looks fine... well, West Virginia was running the ball a little bit in that game and Jeff Sims was moving the chains on em a little too. This BYU run game is probably going to be the front 7's toughest test. Utah lost S Nate Ritchie in the WVU game and he remains out. One of the team's leading tacklers.
The Utah pass rush is gonna be a nightmare for Bachmeier... so I'm sure they're gonna sell out to take the run away.
FLORIDA STATE @ STANFORD - 10:30 PM
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