CFB Week 8 Friday
- Kyle Kirms
- Oct 14, 2025
- 7 min read
LOUISVILLE @ MIAMI - 7 PM
Man Louisville really needed this one. Dropping that game now puts the Cards in a situation where they gotta knock off Miami at Hard Rock or else they've got two ACC losses and their chances of playing in the conference championship game would become extremely slim.
So is Louisville gonna be able to move the ball on this defense? Good news is they've got their RB duo back. Isaac Brown and Duke Watson were both banged up... they're both back and should be at full strength.
So can Louisville run the football on Miami? Well after this defense go on the road and hold Florida State to 3.47 YPC... it's really tough to see that happening. And I still do trust the Florida State run game a bit.
Notre Dame... another run game I trust that couldn't really get it going on the ground against Miami. So how can we trust Louisville to run the ball in this one if Notre Dame and Florida State both couldn't?
By the way, this isn't the first time we've seen Louisville go on the road against a tough defensive front. Louisville couldn't run the ball at all against Pitt. In fact, Louisville's offense didn't do much of anything in that game. They won because Eli Holstein couldn't stop turning the ball over. Pittsburgh had 5 turnovers.
And if Louisville can't run the ball, how are we expecting them to score points in this game? Are we gonna drop Miller Moss back to pass against this pass rush? On the road at Hard Rock? That sounds like an actual nightmare.
I don't see how Louisville moves the ball here... we don't even think Virginia has a great defense. Louisville really couldn't get anything going.
if the Cardinals want to have any chance of winning this game, they need to play a lights out defensive game. Up to this point, the Louisville defense has been great.
Even in the loss to Virginia, it wasn't the defense's fault. The defense played great. That Virginia offense is pretty good and they held em to under 3.8 YPP. They lost the game cuz the offense couldn't do anything and they turned the ball over twice.
And I will say, the Miami offensive numbers don't look nearly as good as the eye test looks. I watched all 3 of these and it felt like Miami's offense was unstoppable in the Notre Dame and Florida State games... but the efficiency numbers actually don't look excellent.
We talked about the Miami pass rush against Miller Moss... but what about the Louisville pass rush against Carson Beck? Carson Beck hasn't been great against the blitz and he hasn't handled pressure all that well this year. Most of his damage has been from a clean pocket. Louisville's pass rush has been great.
Are we expecting Miami to run the ball? Louisville's seen some good offenses and nobody's been able to run the ball on this defense yet.
I think Louisville's defense can keep them in this game. I really wanna take the +14 but I can't because I really dk how they move the ball. How about an under though? Neither of these teams run a fast pace... I like the matchups for both defenses.
Gimme that under. I had the under in the Louisville Pitt game and it cashed for me. I'm going right back to it.
NEBRASKA @ MINNESOTA - 8 PM
So we finally saw the Nebraska offense live up to the hype. Nebraska moved the ball extremely efficiently against Maryland.
I'm not suggesting they can't move the ball on Minnesota. But going to Minnesota and moving the ball on PJ Fleck's defense is a lot different than going to Maryland. Now this Minnesota secondary is definitely injured. They have a couple injuries at corner but the main two are healthy. S Aidan Gousby is also listed as questionable. He missed the Purdue game. So I get how on paper, Nebraska should move the ball on this defense.
Minnesota's pass rush hasn't been very good... Raiola might have time to throw. I get it.
I feel like we're letting the last two games skew our view a bit. Purdue was a bad loss. The game before that was Ohio State... but before that, this team beat Rutgers. Not that Rutgers is any sort of powerhouse... but this year's Rutgers team is pretty good. Minnesota was almost laying a touchdown in that game.
Now they're huge home underdogs to Nebraska? Why? Cuz of one game? Are we forgetting that this Nebraska offense didn't look all that good at all in their first three power 4 games?
And by the way, on the other side of the ball, how are we expecting Nebraska to stop Darius Taylor on the ground? Are we forgetting this Nebraska run defense has been awful this season? I know Minnesota's rushing numbers don't look good... but Darius Taylor has been banged up. He's good to go now. When he's healthy, he's one of the best RBs in the Big Ten.
Yes, Nebraska has played a couple of solid games in a row against the run... which is a good sign. But they played Michigan State and Maryland. Neither of those offenses can run the ball. Are we just forgetting about how bad this defensive front looked against Cincinnati and Michigan?
I'm on Minnesota... the market hates it. I think the Gophers can hand the ball off and stay on the field in this one. I wouldn't be surprised if Raiola struggles. This is a tough environment.
SAN JOSE STATE @ UTAH STATE - 9 PM
San Jose State just cannot get themselves together. That Wyoming loss makes 3 now... 3 games where if you watched it, you thought "how the hell did San Jose State lose that game?". They blew a 28-14 4th quarter lead. But it gets worse... it was 28-14, they had the ball in Wyoming territory with 10 minutes to go. They threw a pick 6... then punted and gave up a deep TD pass... punted and then gave up another deep TD pass. It was almost impressive how they found a way to lose this game.
The good news is San Jose State's offense is starting to look more like last year's offense. They completely stalled out in the 2nd half against Wyoming but we've seen a lot of good offenses have problems there. Utah was struggling to move the ball there a few weeks ago. Utah State's defense hasn't been good.
Utah State played great defense against UTEP and McNeese... but they got completely lit up in their other 4 games. San Jose State should not have problems moving the ball. I am a little concerned about their at situation at RB though. Jabari Bates was RB1 and he's now out for the season. Their other RB was Floyd Chalk IV. He left the team to redshirt. So both RBs are gone. If Utah State doesn't have to respect the run, it will certainly make slowing down Walker Eget and the passing attack easier. Also their RG Daniel Moleni is most likely going to miss another game.
Look at the last 3 games... San Jose State is not much of a threat on the ground right now. So even though I don't trust this Utah State defense... at home, I wouldn't be surprised if they play a decent game.
On the other side of the ball, do we expect San Jose State to make stops here? Utah State's offense looks strong so far this year. They also just got their starting tackle Trey Anderson back last week. He had been out since Week 2. They might even be getting Jake Eichorn back as well, that's not confirmed... but that's their other starting T.
San Jose State's been getting thrown on pretty consistently by offenses that shouldn't really give you a ton of problems. Utah State's offense is better than all 3 of these offenses.
Utah State might score 40 points in this game. I would imagine San Jose State can put points up right back. We should see a fast-paced shootout.
With the concerns to San Jose State at RB, I'm not sure if I can get on board. I'd need a flat 3 to play it... but I'm on the Utah State side of this one.
NORTH CAROLINA @ CALIFORNIA - 10:30 PM
I'm not sure how we expect North Carolina to move the ball in this game. Across the country against a very strong Cal defense. UNC may be getting Caleb Hood back at RB which I suppose gives em something... but this offense looks so broken. It's tough to see North Carolina putting points up. We're not sure if Gio Lopez will be back either. He missed the Clemson game.
So I suppose you can point to the injuries on Cal's defense which are concerning. They lost S Isaiah Crosby and OLB Ryan McCulloch for the season in the San Diego State game. The defense has looked bad in both games since those injuries. But here's the thing... they played Boston College across the country... a team that can throw the ball... then they played Duke, who low key, has one of the most explosive offenses in the country.
But here's the thing... I don't even care. Have we not watched North Carolina try to score points so far this year? Look at the numbers from their two games on the road.
And even on the other side, where North Carolina hasn't been all that bad. They've actually been strong against the run. But all Cal does is throw the ball.
Look what happened when North Carolina saw a QB that can actually throw the ball. They got completely lit up. Both of these games were at home also.
And I know you might be thinking "well Kyle, TCU and Clemson are both better offenses than Cal"... which is true. But Cal has played so many road games. If you isolate it to just their games at home, this offense has looked decent. Also, their last 4 games are against Duke, Boston College, San Diego State and Minnesota... all tough defenses. Back at home, Sagapolutele should have a good game.
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