CFB Week 7 Thursday
- Kyle Kirms
- Oct 7
- 6 min read
LOUISIANA TECH @ KENNESAW STATE - 7 PM
The matchup on this side of the ball is pretty underwhelming. LA Tech is a defensive team all the way... that's back to back years where Sonny Cumbie really has a strong defense there.
We just saw this offense struggling to move the ball against UTEP's defense missing both their starting LBs. This mighta been the sloppiest football game in the history of College Football. There were 9 turnovers in this game.
Now we've got a QB situation here. Kukuc started the first two games. He got injured and Blake Baker started the next two games. The offense looked significantly better with Baker.
Now, Louisiana Tech is getting Trey Kukuk back... and if you're thinking "well Kyle the offense looked better when Baker took over"... yeah that's true... but then the UTEP game happened. Blake Baker was not good in this game. Kukuc might be getting the starting job back.
We can't sleep on this Kennesaw State defense. This team is definitely trending in the right direction under new HC Jerry Mack. They got lit up on the road @ Indiana... ok they're supposed to get lit up in that game. Look at their defensive numbers in the other 4 games this season.
On the other side of the ball, this is where the matchup gets interesting. You look at this graphic and you think "oh this is a mismatch". And it is to some extent.
But I don't think we can completely sleep on this Kennesaw State offense. They made a QB change... and this team can move the ball. Amari Odon looks good... he's 6'4... efficient passing numbers... he's an athlete too.
And Kennesaw isn't just moving the ball... they're winning games.
Here's the problem... LA Tech's defense is really good. With Liberty having a down year, this is the best defense in CUSA.
We saw this defense get thrown on in a couple games... in fact that Southern Miss game was a bit misleading. Southern Miss probably shoulda won that game.
I don't think Louisiana Tech should be laying a touchdown on the road. Their last road game was against UTEP and they gifted em 5 INTs in the game. Kennesaw's playing with confidence right now. I wanna take the points.
ECU @ TULANE - 7:30 PM
Well fading ECU didn't work out well for me last week. That was the worst football game I've seen Army play in a while.
ECU had success with that fast-paced pass-happy offense at home against Army. Going on the road to play Tulane is a bit different. Army's been one of the worst pass defenses in the country this year. Tulane's got solid defensive numbers against the pass so far this year.
Now ECU's offense might be a bit fortunate here... Tulane's defense is not 100% right now... missing multiple starters.
Now they were missing these pieces for pretty much the entire Tulsa game and the defense looked fine. But keep in mind, Tulsa was playing that game without staring QB Kirk Francis.
Here's the problem... ECU's offense just seems to rack up stats against bad defenses. The two times they saw Power 4 defenses, they really struggled to move the ball.
Now here's the thing... normally, I would consider Tulane a low-end Power 4 defense because in terms of resources, they're usually one of the strongest Group of 5 teams. But with the injuries... and the fact that this Tulane defense just doesn't seem to be playing that well, I don't think it's crazy to think this fast-paced ECU offense has some success here.
The strength of this Tulane defense so far has been the pass rush... not only are they missing two edge rushers, but Katin Houser gets the ball out of his hands quickly and he's really handled pressure well so far this year.
On the other side of the ball, we need to figure out if these ECU defensive numbers are real.
Tulane is an offense that wants to run the ball and ECU has been very strong against the run so far this year.
We're in a tough spot here... the data points are tough. I would imagine ECU is somewhere in the middle of these.
This ECU defense really hasn't been run on this year. Now on the road Tulane is gonna be their toughest test... NC State is more of a passing offense and BYU was at home. But ECU may be getting Xavier McIver back... that's their starting DT and he hasn't played since Week 1.
It comes down to whether or not you believe this ECU run defense is for real. Tulane's tough... they weren't that impressive in a couple games... but they also really dominated Duke. I think the total is a bit low. So I'll say over.
SOUTHERN MISS @ GEORGIA SOUTHERN - 8 PM
Well we know Southern Miss is gonna move the ball on Georgia Southern's defense because everyone moves the ball on Georgia Southern's defense. This is the worst defense in the Sun Belt Conference and I don't think it's really close.
Now we do have to give them a little bit of credit. Starting the season all the way on the west coast with back to back road games is tough. Since they've come back home and have seen easier competition, the defense has looked a bit more respectable. Also CB1 - Chance Gamble is back after missing a couple games.
The problem is... even in the last 3 games since coming back to the east coast, Georgia Southern has really struggled to stop the run.
What's strange is... Southern Miss hasn't been all that effective running the ball. I guess I figured because they've got Marshall's head coach, Marshall's QB and a bunch of players from Marshall... that we'd see a similar dynamic rushing attack we saw last year.
Southern Miss has been more effective through the air... Georgia Southern has surprisingly done a decent job against the pass.
Now this probably doesn't matter. Georgia Southern's defense isn't good... they have no pass rush. Braxton's been good from a clean pocket. They should have no problems moving the ball in this game.
The question is on the other side of the ball. We know Clay Helton can scheme up a passing attack. I know this graphic doesn't really show that... but Georgia Southern is a pass first offense. The problem is... Southern Miss has elite numbers against the pass so far this year.
But this Southern Miss secondary hasn't really been tested much. They've played one road game all year... and Blake Baker was piecing them up a bit.
If the Louisiana Tech passing attack is able to give Southern Miss problems, I think Clay Helton and JC French can as well. I think Georgia Southern can move the ball in this game. Southern Miss has struggled with explosive plays. I think we'll see explosive plays both ways.
I like the over. I also lean Southern Miss at a flat 3 but I'm hesitant cuz I really think Georgia Southern can score points in this game.
JACKSONVILLE STATE @ SAM HOUSTON STATE - 8 PM
This is a bad football game man. So we know Jacksonville State needs to run the ball... not sure if that's a coaching decision or if it's due to the fact that Gavin Wimsatt can't throw. They tried out Caden Creel at QB last game but from what I'm reading, Gavin Wimsatt is still the starter.
So the bad news is... Jacksonville State has zero passing attack. The good news is... they can run the ball... and actually, it's looked surprisingly good.
Here's the thing... the only thing Sam Houston State has done well this year is defend the run. In fact, outside of the Texas game, nobody's run the ball efficiently on Sam Houston State this year. They're also expected to get LB JaMair Diaz to be back who didn't play in the NMSU game.
The glaring weakness of this Sam Houston State defense is the secondary. This team can't cover anybody.
The problem is... Gavin Wimsatt can't throw the ball. Jacksonville State has one of the least efficient passing attacks in the country. So although I think the Sam Houston State defense is terrible, I'm also not jumping at the opportunity of trusting this Jacksonville State offense either.
So how can we not take Sam Houston State catching more than a TD at home? Well... because whatever Phil Longo is doing with this offense, it's not working. Phil Longo is supposed to be an offensive guy and yes, I'm aware it's year 1 and maybe we shouldn't jump to conclusions. But this is bad.
This offense should not be held to 10 points by New Mexico State. Yes, I'm aware they completely shot themselves in the foot on a couple drives that probably were gonna score... but that was bad.
Jacksonville State's defense doesn't look good at all. They're at home. There's no way Sam Houston State's offense should be limited in this game.
So I have no idea... I want to take Sam Houston State but idk if I can mentally handle that again. I also was considering an under... but it's tough cuz we might see a very fast-paced football game.
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