CFB Week 7 Saturday
- Kyle Kirms
- Oct 10
- 25 min read
UCF @ CINCINNATI - 12 PM
Cincinnati Bearcats... coming off back to back huge conference wins.
So when I first looked at this game, I thought the line was definitely an overreaction. Cincinnati looks good but 10.5 points to UCF? But now I'm seeing that UCF might be rocking their 3rd string QB in this game and it makes a bit more sense. Tayven Jackson re-injured his left shoulder in the Kansas game... the same one that he injured the week before. QB2 Jacurri Brown wasn't even active last week. He got hurt the previous week against Kansas State. Cincinnati also has their star DT Dontay Corleone back.. probably the best player on the defense.
If neither of those QBs play, how can we expect UCF to keep up with this Cincinnati offense... which is a powerhouse btw.
The UCF defense has been way better than I expected it to be. I really need to tip my hat to Scott Frost. That team does not look like a brand new team that was thrown together with a brand new coach. But the thing with the UCF defense is I have questions about the competition. The only decent teams they've seen are Kansas and Kansas State... and they played ok in those games but they didn't cover the number in either.
I really think the number's justified. Cincinnati's rolling right now and if the QBs are out for UCF... this could be a dogwalking. Cincinnati -10.5.
ALABAMA @ MISSOURI - 12 PM
Missouri has not had much success against Alabama.
Taking a position in this game is just the ultimate question of "do you believe any of these numbers from Missouri?" Because based on efficiency metrics so far this season, Missouri might be the best team in College Football so far.
Here's the thing... Missouri hasn't played a single road game yet this year... and in terms of the defensive numbers, they've played some terrible teams. The only offense on this list that's respectable is Kansas... maybe South Carolina. Now Missouri played good defense in those games, but neither of these offenses are comparable to Alabama.
Ty Simpson has been excellent since that opener against Florida State. Alabama's looking like they have one of the best passing attacks in the country.
Now if you're on Missouri, you're looking right here. The pass rush has been nuts. 51.6% pressure rate is out of this world. And they're doing this without blitzing. We do have to mention that they've seen some bad offensive lines... but Ty Simpson has held onto the football a bit this year. So here's your path to victory if you're on Mizzou... the pass rush is going to get to Ty Simpson.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama's defense hasn't been quite as elite. Now they've played Florida State with the element of surprise. They've played Georgia in Athens. They've played Vanderbilt. This defense has been through the gauntlet. But they're also missing some starters. 2 LBs and a DL are out.
But what do we think of this Missouri offense? It's a very similar story to the defense. Who have they seen? South Carolina is the only respectable defense on this list... and I'm not even sure how good South Carolina is.
Beau Pribula has been excellent... but if you isolate his numbers to just the South Carolina game, it doesn't look very impressive at all.
I truly have no idea how good Missouri is. But they're at home and they're coming off a bye week... meanwhile this game is sandwiched in between some seriously important spots for Alabama.
I'm gonna say Missouri. It's just a perfect spot... if there was ever a perfect opportunity for Missouri to knock Alabama off, it's right here.
CHARLOTTE @ ARMY - 12 PM
Well as you know, Army's got one of the worst pass defenses in the country... but Conner Harrell has officially been ruled out for the season. They've also got a lot of injury problems on the offensive line... I can't even really tell who the starters are supposed to be. They lost a guard for the season in Week 1 and I'm pretty sure they lost another starter during Fall camp right before the season started. Now they've got a couple offensive linemen listed as questionable.
I think Zach Wilcke is gonna get the start at QB. Grayson Loftis started last week... he was 2/11 with -1 yard passing and 1 INT. Wilcke came in and actually played pretty well. Granted... the score was 26-0 at that point. So South Florida may have been sitting back in coverage and mentally checked out by that point.
I don't trust Army's defense at all... but they do deserve credit for last week. They went on the road against UAB and that's an offense that can definitely score. They played really well. This kid can throw it... so maybe he can complete some passes but I doubt we'll see much out of the Charlotte offense.
On the other side, we know Charlotte's gonna struggle to get off the field against this option offense. Getting off the field has been a problem for this defense.
We just saw Charlotte play an option team. They actually weren't THAT bad. Rice won the game comfortably... that was at home in Charlotte. Now they go on the road against an Army offense that's stronger than Rice's.
Army should win comfortably but I'm not laying 18. I'll say Army -18.
PITTSBURGH @ FLORIDA STATE - 12 PM
So Pitt bounces back after their crushing Week 5 loss in a major way. Florida State... did not. That final score is not a reflection of how the game went either. Miami dominated that game and Florida State scored a couple of late TDs to make it look interesting... but it really wasn't.
So how seriously do we take Pittsburgh's season-long offensive numbers? Keep in mind, we've got a new QB here now... Holstein's been pretty bad. They've also played the last two games without their star RB, Desmond Reid, who looks to be returning for this one.
Freshman Mason Heintschel gets his first start... the offense looks excellent and they beat Boston College 48-7. Boston College has a strong defense too... although we should probably point out that they were missing both their starter corners in this game.
But now we get to the spot nobody likes to bet... a Freshman making his first career road start. We've seen plenty of instances of that failing miserably this season. I will say... Florida State's defense hasn't looked all that great recently after starting out the season looking like a powerhouse. I personally think he's gonna struggle... Florida State's been playing the last 2 games without one of their DBs Ashlynd Barker. He returned to practice and I think he's gonna be back for this one.
Even if Desmond Reid plays, I'm not sure how effective he'll be. He was suited up for their last game and didn't see the field. We saw how awful this Pitt offense looked last time they went on the road and I doubt a Freshman QB making his first road start in Doak Campbell is gonna change that. Pitt is also banged up on the offensive line. LG Keith Gouveia is out for the season (Week 4) and they might also be missing their starting LT Jeff Persi. He left the BC game injured and is listed as questionable.
So I completely understand the 10.5 point line on that side of the ball... it's the other side of the ball that concerns me for Florida State. We know Gus Malzahn wants to run the football. Pitt's got one of the strongest defensive fronts in the entire country.
This Florida State rushing attack is good, don't get me wrong... but who has run the ball on Pittsburgh this year? FSU might be missing their RT Micah Pettis for this one. He left the Miami game injured and is questionable.
Idk if I trust Florida State to move the ball here... but I can't back Pittsburgh with a Freshman QB making his first road start behind a hobbled offensive line. That just sounds like a nightmare. I'll say FSU -10 or under 58.5.
UCLA @ MICHIGAN STATE - 12 PM
How do both these games happen in the same season? How do you get blown out by New Mexico at home... and then beat Penn State?
So can this UCLA offense keep it moving on the road in East Lansing? Well remember, we've got a Big Ten cross-country travel... and in the last two years, since we've seen this Big Ten merger, the traveling team has not looked great.
This Michigan State played WAY better than you think last week too. I know you see the final score and you assume that Michigan State got lit up. Michigan State was also missing two starters in the secondary for this game. S Nikai Martinez and NB Ade Willie. They're both listed as questionable for this one so they might be getting those guys back.
So I think Michigan State can play a decent defensive game at home against the traveling UCLA offense. I'm a little worried that Nico seems to be getting it going. They got WR Rico Flores back two weeks ago... he's got 8 catches in the last 2 games and we're seeing Nico's passing numbers starting to look efficient. I think we might need to throw everything out for this UCLA offense because they look stronger.
Despite all that, it's still a cross-country traveling Big Ten team so I'm going to lean towards trusting the Michigan State defense. On the other side of the ball, this is where we need to see Aidan Chiles play well. He's at home against a traveling UCLA defense that's been by far, the worst defense in the Big Ten. He has to play well in this game.
UCLA hasn't shown us much of a pass rush this year... this should be a great spot for Aidan Chiles.
Unlike the UCLA offense that seems to be coming around, the UCLA defense does not seem to be coming around. They can't stop the run at all... Aidan Chiles should have time to throw and run support in this game.
Jonathan Smith likes to run a slow-paced offense... I think Michigan State can sustain long drives in this one and keep Nico on the sidelines.
I think Michigan State is the play here. This should be a really nice spot for Michigan State to turn some heads. Gimme Michigan State -7.5.
MIAMI OHIO @ AKRON - 12 PM
So both of these teams coming off nice wins... yes you heard that correctly. The Akron Zips are coming off a nice win.
Despite winning a game, we know this defense is bad.
Akron may have won... but the problems on the defensive line are definitely not fixed. Central Michigan ran all over this defense.
Now Miami (OH) might be missing their RB Kenny Tracy. He was injured during warmups leading up to the NIU game. It doesn't look like he's gonna play here. They're also missing their backup RB Josh Ringer. So they're thin at RB. Akron's defensive line might be so bad that it doesn't matter... but I really don't think Miami (OH) on back to back road games with injured RBs is the best team to exploit a weak defensive line.And on the other side of the ball, is Akron back?
And on the other side of the ball, is Akron back? Remember, Ben Finley was banged up there and missed that Toledo game. He game back to play Central Michigan and Akron's offense was moving.
The problem is... Miami (OH) has a really strong defense. I know this graphic doesn't show it, but keep in mind, they opened up the season with two road Big Ten games and then played UNLV. I expect this to be one of the strongest defenses in the conference.
I really don't trust Akron against this defense... but I don't really trust Miami (OH)'s offense either in this spot. I'll take Akron +11.5 and the under.
TOLEDO @ BOWLING GREEN - 12 PM
Both teams should be healthier coming off the bye week... including Bowling Green's defense.
Tucker Gleason should have no problems making throws in this game. Bowling Green can't seem to cover anybody.
Toledo should blow this team out... but Toledo has a history of choking in these MAC games that should be comfortable wins. We just saw this team lose outright to a Western Michigan team that really sucks.
It would only be Toledo for me here.
OHIO STATE @ ILLINOIS - 12 PM
Illinois has snagged back to back conference wins. The final score in the Purdue game isn't the best indicator. Purdue played em tough. But regardless, Illinois needed these two games badly after the Indiana game and they got em.
The problem is... despite winning back to back games, I'm still not trusting this defense. Now I think all the injuries in the secondary are over with now except for CB Xavier Scott. But this might just be a bad defense.
Now I will say... the Buckeyes offense looks great... but we've only seen this Ohio State team go on the road once. It was out to Washington and it didn't look that explosive. I know you might be looking at this graphic saying "Kyle these are some pretty solid looking offensive numbers". Well we're talking about laying more than two TDs in a road conference game... I'm gonna need a bit more than "pretty solid".
The question comes on the other side of the ball. Is Luke Altmyer able to make throws against this Ohio State defense?
Now you could say... when Illinois saw an elite defense, Altmyer was in prison. And that would be true... he was pressured on 50% of his dropbacks that game.
But you can also say... that game was on the road and other than that one data point, Altmyer's been pretty consistently moving the ball. Keep in mind, Ohio State might be missing EDGE Kenyetta Jackson Jr. in this one. He left the Minnesota game injured and is listed as questionable.
This is it for Illinois. This is the season... that loss to Indiana was ugly... but if they win this game, they're looking at a possible trip to the College Football Playoff. They've got a bye week after this. Gimme Illinois +14.5.
HOUSTON @ OKLAHOMA STATE - 12 PM
This Oklahoma State team is terrible... they fired Mike Gundy and are basically dealing with a shell of a football team right now. I can't believe I'd even consider laying two touchdowns on the road with Houston... but Oklahoma State is rock bottom in terms of Power 4 programs right now.
Conner Weigman is good to go (cleared concussion protocol) and I don't trust him at all but Oklahoma State has no pass rush. They also can't stop the run. Weigman should be put in a very favorable position to make throws in this one.
On the other side of the ball, I have no idea how Oklahoma State is gonna move the chains in this game. Zane Flores is not gonna play in this game. That's the QB... keep in mind, this is a team that already lost their starting QB. Zane Flores is the backup... so I guess Sam Jackson is gonna get the start at QB for Houston.
I don't even think Houston's a good team... but they should beat the hell out of Oklahoma State. Lay it.
IOWA STATE @ COLORADO - 3:30 PM
So obviously... Iowa State took a gut punch. Two weeks ago, they lost both their starting corners for the season... and it was definitely noticeable in last week's loss.
Brendan Sorsby was piecing this defense up... Cincinnati's offense basically did whatever they wanted for most of that game... so I do agree with the initial money on Colorado buying this number down.
Here's why I think it's gone too far. That was on the road against Cincinnati... who's looking like they might have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the Big 12. Now they're playing Colorado... this year's Colorado offense doesn't have much of a passing attack.
Do we really think Salter is the QB who's gonna exploit these corners? He lost his starting job... then got it back and hasn't looked good at all. Remember, Colorado's got a couple WRs out also. Dre'lon Miller, Isaiah Hardge and Hykeem Williams are all WRs that contribute and are out for this game.
And on the other side of the ball, Colorado's defense is not nearly as good as they were last year. I do wanna say... I think they're trending in the right direction. But still, do we think Colorado's capable of stopping this offense? They also just lost two key starters last week. DE Arden Walker and S Carter Stoutmire are both listed as doubtful. They're both starters.
The bright spots of this Colorado defense has been the pass rush and they have some playmakers in the secondary... Iowa State is a tough matchup for them. Rocco Becht gets the ball out quickly... this isn't last year's Iowa State offense with the two NFL WRs. This year's offense utilizes the TE's and RB's in the passing attack. 2 of the top 3 leaders in receptions are TE's.
This number's fallen way too far. Under a FG, it's definitely Iowa State. I actually like this one. Not many bets I place later in the week that I like.
NORTHWESTERN @ PENN STATE - 3:30 PM
Not much analysis for this one... I think poor Northwestern is going to feel the wrath of an extremely pissed off Penn State team. This is a team that had National Championship aspirations and now we're sitting here talking about their season being potentially over.
I know based on this graphic, you'd think "hey maybe Northwestern can move the football on Penn State's defense". I very seriously doubt that. PSU LB Tony Rojas out for the season which is a big loss.
Keep in mind, the only reason Penn State's defensive numbers on the year look shaky is the last two games. They were against Oregon, (one of the best offenses in the country), and UCLA... which was basically Nico doing Heisman type stuff. This is an elite defense.
Northwestern's offense has definitely looked pretty good in the last couple games. I don't wanna sweep that under the rug. Maybe they are trending in the right direction.
But the truth is... Preston Stone's been terrible under pressure so far this year and Penn State's pass rush should be a disaster.
On the other side, I know Penn State's offense has been bad. But Northwestern has struggled against the run. They might be getting S Damon Walters back... but I'm not sure if that matters here. That would probably be the best player on this defense and he's yet to play this season.
Penn State in a blowout.
NEBRASKA @ MARYLAND - 3:30 PM
We all know the criticism of this Maryland team. The defensive numbers are fake. That's what everyone is saying.
Now I guess this is a negative data point. Washington was flying across the country... Maryland coming off a bye week. So I guess considering the fact that they were in a very advantageous position and still blew a 20 point lead. So I guess it's a negative data point... but it still wasn't a bad defensive effort.
So I guess after seeing Washington march down the field and score 3 consecutive touchdowns to win the game in the 4th quarter, people are out on this Maryland defense and we're thinking Nebraska's gonna piece em up. But keep in mind... Nebraska's only played one road game this year and the offense did not look good. In fact, the Nebraska offense hasn't looked good in any of their Power 4 games. I don't think it's crazy to say that Maryland's defense can generate some stops in this game.
Now on the other side of the ball, I understand why some people think this is a tough matchup for Maryland. This year's Nebraska defense is almost the opposite of last year's. Last year's Nebraska defense was very strong up front... they were elite against the run, but they were vulnerable to the pass. The strength of this year's defense is the secondary and that defensive front from last year is mostly gone. The reason I'm bringing this up... Maryland hasn't run the ball well at all this year. Malik Washington has been their entire offense. Nebraska's got great looking numbers against the pass so far this year.
And it's not like Nebraska hasn't seen any QBs. They've seen Brendan Sorsby, who btw is looking like he might be the best QB in the Big 12. They've seen Bryce Underwood... they've seen Aidan Chiles. Not that these are Heisman trophy candidates... but they've seen QBs.
Malik Washington just had his first shaky game... Washington didn't even put a ton of pressure on him. So I get it.
But despite all that... I still just don't believe Nebraska is THAT much better than Maryland. We're sitting here saying Nebraska's 8.5/9 points better than Maryland on a neutral? Based on what? Terps came through for me last week and I went right back to em. Maryland +6.5.
OLD DOMINION @ MARSHALL - 3:30 PM
Old Dominion is a wagon. They were my pick to win the Sun Belt Conference in the offseason and so far, it's looking pretty spot on. Been a while since anyone was even able to play a competitive game against the Monarchs.
Now this Marshall team isn't great... but they have been playing some tough defense which was expected. Marshall always seems to have a tough defense and the new head coach is Tony Gipson. He's been the DC at NC State the last 6 or 7 years and that team always had a tough defense. So even though they didn't have a ton of talent, we knew Tony Gipson was put a solid defense on the field.
The problem is... if you take a look at their schedule, they've seen some terrible offenses recently. They got lit up by Missouri State in Week 2. So yeah, the defense has looked solid the past few weeks but they haven't played anybody.
What they've specifically struggled with is explosive plays... Colton Joseph is an explosive play machine. Old Dominion should smoke em.
On the other side of the ball, I mean... I guess you could make a case for Marshall running the ball a bit in this game.
They've been running the ball efficiently the last 4 games... but against who? They haven't played anybody. They lost their starting RG and RB1 earlier in the season... we haven't noticed it yet cuz they've played such bad defenses. I think we'll notice it in this one.
And Old Dominion did get run on in both their road games... but these were against Power 4 programs.
Old Dominion is running it up on teams... it would only be ODU.
INDIANA @ OREGON - 3:30 PM
Both teams coming off a bye week and both teams coming off huge road wins.
You know what's crazy? Based on what we're seeing from Penn State, I think Indiana's win over Iowa is more impressive. Kinnick is one of the toughest places to go move the ball in College Football. So even though this stat line doesn't look excellent for Mendoza... he was excellent from a clean pocket. He took advantage of opportunities to make throws when they were there.
Oregon's pass rush is obviously great, but the secondary hasn't been tested at all. Remember, Oregon's two starting corners are both Freshman. They haven't seen a single passing attack that can attack that. Indiana can.
He might even have a bit of run support here. Not a lot... but Penn State was able to run the ball a little bit... Indiana was able to run the ball a little bit against Iowa. I think Indiana can score points in this game.
The question is... are they capable of making stops?
Indiana's defense definitely got back on track after the rocky opener against Old Dominion. This is a strong defense. This is also a defense that's getting their best CB back on the field, D'Angelo Ponds.
Oregon's offense looks like a powerhouse. There are definitely some questionable opponents though. They went on the road against Penn State and looked pretty good. Their other 4 games were not against strong defensive competition.
I understand that we've seen Cignetti's Indiana teams get beat comfortably when they've seen elite competition. Ohio State last year... Notre Dame last year... But I don't see Eugene as quite the same as Columbus or South Bend last year. Those were the two teams that played in the National Championship... arguably the two most physical defensive fronts in the country. This year's Oregon team is excellent... but I'm not sure they're quite as physically threatening than those two teams. What Indiana just did on the road @ Kinnick was impressive. I'm on Indiana +8.5.
TCU @ KANSAS STATE - 3:30 PM
Well we should start out by pointing out that this was a BS cover. I picked TCU -13.5 on the show... but if you had Colorado +13.5, you have every right to be pissed off about this. TCU went for it on 4th and 6 with 19 seconds left and threw a 21 yard TD pass. Now I understand why they did it. They were only up 7... if they get a FG blocked, they could blow the game. It's just a crazy way to lose a bet.
I wanna start with the Kansas State offense. Obviously, we know the season-long numbers don't look good. This offense was hysterically bad the first few weeks of the year.
But ever since the bye week, Kansas State seems to have figured it out a bit offensively. Yes, they played two of the weaker defenses in the conference. But no question, this offense looks considerably better. They're also healthier. Jayce Brown ended up playing last week and Jerand Bradley saw a few snaps as well. Those are their two main WRs. Dylan Edwards is banged up and listed as questionable... but I feel he's been listed as questionable all season.
Here's the problem with this matchup. TCU's defense has tilted pretty strongly towards the defensive front. They've been strong against the run so far this year.
The weakness of this TCU defense has been the secondary. They've struggled to defend the pass so far... but Kansas State is a run-first team. Avery Johnson has looked better... but this is still not a passing attack I consider to be a huge threat.
Now again... Avery Johnson has looked significantly better... but if TCU can slow down the Kansas State run game, I don't trust him to keep up with this TCU offense.
And he's going to need to keep up... because this TCU offense is strong. Now we do have to mention that TCU just lost their starting LT Ryan Hughes last week in the Colorado game. He's out for the season.
I'm on TCU in this one. I didn't bet it but I'm considering it.
OKLAHOMA @ TEXAS - 3:30 PM
Well we all know what happened last week... Texas takes their 2nd loss of the season. San Jose State remains the Longhorns most impressive loss so far this year.
Arch Manning was in prison. He was one of the most pressured QBs in College Football last week. In fact, there were only 2 QBs in the entire FBS that were pressured more than Arch Manning in the swamp.
In addition to that, he had zero run support.
Arch Manning really wasn't put in a good situation at all... but do we expect anything to be different in this one? Oklahoma probably has the best defensive line in the country.
One thing I will say for Texas though... this Oklahoma defense is racking up video game numbers. They haven't played a real road game. Temple was their only road game so far this year.
Their two tough games were Michigan and Auburn... Michigan has a Freshman QB who was making his first career road start. Auburn probably shoulda won that game.
Meanwhile... we're judging the Texas offense off of their two big games. Both of them were on the road... and they were against elite defenses. Ohio State in Columbus and Florida in the swamp. I just feel like we're not talking apples to apples when we're talking about the Oklahoma defense against the Texas offense.
I don't think this is going to be the complete domination that everyone thinks. Oklahoma's missing 2 of their top 4 corners. Their star RB Tre Wisner is finally back. I actually think Texas can move the ball a little in this game. On the other side of the ball, obviously the lead story is John Mateer. From what I'm reading, I don't think we're going to see him out there for this one.
If Mateer is unable to go, Michael Hawkins is going to get the start. You might remember him from last year... it wasn't pretty. Oklahoma's offense looked dysfunctional.
Texas sure is familiar with Hawkins... he started against em last year and they absolutely smoked Oklahoma in this game.
Look, I'm hearing Hawkins looks better... but I have concerns. The two big games we saw Oklahoma play... they were both at home... and the offense didn't look great. The only time the offense looked functional in these games was when Mateer was doing Heisman stuff.
I'm already on Oklahoma +3.5... I'm adding Texas ML (-110). I think Texas wins this game.
IOWA @ WISCONSIN - 7 PM
We don't have to spend a ton of time on this one. It's looking like we might see two backup QBs here. I believe there's still a chance Gronowski plays for Iowa but we'll see. Basically, I just think Wisconsin's defense is way better than these numbers show.
I'm not trying to make a case for Wisconsin's offense moving the ball... but they're at home here and I honestly thought Simmons looked decent in the Michigan game. He makes his first start for Wisconsin on the road in the Big House? This is actually a step down here.
I got Wisconsin at +5... if you can still get 3.5, I'd still consider Wisconsin. Iowa doesn't have the offense to be laying a big number in a road game, in my opinion. I think we see an old school Big Ten West game here... 19-17 final score or something.
FLORIDA @ TEXAS A&M - 7 PM
Big win for Billy Napier.
The offense looked pretty good. This poor Florida offense had back to back road games against two of the best defenses in the country. They come back home... they get their up and coming superstar WR Dallas Wilson on the field for the first time, and they played well. So is this the start of a positive 2nd half of the season for Florida?
Unfortunately, I just don't think that's very likely. This A&M defense has been missing two starters, S Bryce Anderson and LB Scooby Williams... and it hasn't mattered. They've have strong teams coming into Kyle Field and nobody's been able to move the ball efficiently. So I doubt we're gonna see Florida's offense from last week roll on into this week. Florida WR Eugene Wilson has been added to the injury report and might not play in this game.
On the other side of the ball, this is where we don't want to overlook Florida. We know how bad of a season it's been... sometimes when there's a lot of negative media coverage surrounding a team, it's easy to overlook some aspects of it that are actually playing well. This defense has been very strong all season.
The thing is... I really think Texas A&M might have the best offense in College Football. I think they might have the best team in College Football, period. Look at the numbers from their last 3 games and consider the opponents.
I think Texas A&M can smoke em here. The problem is... I'm a little worried about this Florida team, given what we saw last year. Remember, Florida was sitting at 4-5... season was over. They just got smoked by Texas. Then they pull off a huge win as a home dog against LSU. Then they went on to win out... including a win over No.9 ranked Ole Miss. So I'm a bit worried that the Texas win might launch another complete 180 in Florida's season like we saw last year.
Texas A&M is a wagon. Florida's defense will keep them from getting completely blown out... but I feel once A&M gets a lead, they should be able to control this game. A&M -7.5.
GEORGIA @ AUBURN - 7:30 PM
Auburn had back to back brutal games before the bye week.
How crazy is it that Georgia's defense might be the easiest Auburn's seen in a month? I know their numbers against the run look elite... they haven't seen a single team that can run the ball. Tennessee's a passing offense... Alabama hasn't been able to run the ball all year.
I know Auburn isn't perceived to be a strong offense, but we can't sleep on this unit. Keep in mind, we're basing most of our opinion of Auburn's offense off back to back road games at Oklahoma and at Texas A&M. This Georgia defense has shown us they're vulnerable.
We all know Jackson Arnold has struggled with the pass rush in these big games... well Georgia hasn't shown us they can pressure the passer like Oklahoma and Texas A&M can.
Now, I don't think it's realistic to think Auburn's defense can shut Georgia's offense down. This is a strong offense. But going on the road on a Saturday night to Jordan-Hare and running the football on Auburn's defense just probably ain't happening.
Georgia has moved the ball successfully in each of their last 3 games... all against SEC opponents. Now in terms of defenses, only Alabama would be on Auburn's level though. And that game was at home in Athens... and they lost.
Auburn's defense held up in the last 2 games... back to back tough road games against very strong opponents. Coming off a bye week, Auburn's defense should be able to put up a fight here.
You add on the fact that Superman is gonna be in attendance? They're retiring Cam Newton's jersey at halftime. Auburn's live here.
I'm on the under at 47.5... I also am on Auburn +3.5.
KANSAS @ TEXAS TECH - 7:30 PM
So here's the battle right here. This is what's gonna decide how this game goes. Cuz we know the Kansas defense is not going to make stops on the road in Lubbock. If Kansas wants to compete in this game, they're gonna have to move the ball on this defense... which has elite numbers on the year.
The thing with Texas Tech's defense... we have one data point. It's an extremely impressive data point. They went into Rice-Eccles and shut Utah's offense down. Other than that, they haven't seen a single decent offense. Houston is not good.
This Kansas offense has been explosive... we have seen them in a road game against a very tough defense... and they did struggle. I know they scored 31 points but it was a weird game. They had a fumble return TD. They actually scored 21 points in the 1st quarter. So we have seen this Kansas offense get slowed down this year.
I personally think Kansas can score in this game. Jalon Daniels is experienced... he's seen some elite defenses. He won't be intimidated by the Lubbock atmosphere. Look on the other side, I very seriously doubt Kansas can make stops in this game. In addition to this defense being a little shaky, we've got injuries. LB Joseph Sipp Jr. is out. CB Syeed Gibbs is out. They're also missing Devin Dye who is a rotational DB that sees a lot of the field.
Despite all that, I still think two touchdowns is a little extreme... and it's not like we've never seen Texas Tech shit the bed. Those games usually happen on the road... but gimme Kansas +14.5.
RICE @ UTSA - 7:30 PM
The new option offense Rice has been running hasn't been all that efficient in year one... but I don't believe the expectations were super high. They've picked up a couple nice road wins. It's been a solid season. I'm just referring to the numbers. Part of this could be due to injuries... 3 of the starters from Rice offensive line in Week 1 are hurt right now. It's uncertain if any of them will return for this game.
This is gonna be a tough matchup... they're on the road against a UTSA defense that's looking very strong against the run for the 2nd straight year.
Now credit to Chase Jenkins... he's actually been pretty efficient throwing the ball the last few games. But we're talking about 12-15 pass attempts per game... and these were also against terrible defenses.
I wouldn't be surprised if Rice can move the ball a bit in this game. But on the other side... not sure how Rice makes stops in this one. I know this graphic makes it look like these two units are closely matched... in this building, they're not.
UTSA averaged over 42 PPG at home in the Alamodome last year... they're off to a similar start again this year. This offense is just too explosive in this building.
I know you see Rice went on the road to Annapolis and held Navy to 21 points... but if you actually look at that game, Navy averaged 7.5 YPP.
I'm a little worried about UTSA's defense... but I think this is a boatrace. UTSA -10.5.
SAN DIEGO STATE @ NEVADA - 10:30 PM
Jeff Choate's defense has fallen a bit short of expectations this year.
This San Diego State offense looked very strong last week. They lit Colorado State's defense up BADLY.
Here's the thing though... outside of that game, the San Diego State offense hasn't looked very good... and specifically in their two road games, they've been straight up terrible.
And Nevada's defense got off to a rough start... they seem to be settling in. If you just look at the defensive numbers from their last 3 games, it actually looks pretty good. I think San Diego State is gonna struggle to move the ball in this game.
Now on the other side... I mean this is tough. San Diego State's defense has been so good and Nevada's offense has been straight piss.
We actually aren't even sure who's playing QB... Chubba Purdy was benched in their last game on the road in Fresno. He was 0/4 with 2 INTs. It hasn't been announced if they've officially made the change at QB.
Idk how Nevada moves the ball in this game... but I don't fully trust San Diego State to move the ball either. Jeff Choate is a great head coach and I think he'll have a few tricks up his sleeve. I think San Diego State wins a close ugly one. Nevada +8.
UTAH STATE @ HAWAII - 11:59 PM
So it looks like Bryson Barnes will play in this game. He left the Vanderbilt game with an injury in the 4th quarter... but he's fully practicing. When Barnes is on the field, this Utah State offense is definitely pretty good.
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