CFB Week 6 Friday
- Kyle Kirms
- Sep 30
- 8 min read
CHARLOTTE @ SOUTH FLORIDA - 7 PM
So Conner Harrell might not play in this game. We should probably start there. He left the Rice game early on with a knee injury and did not return. Obviously Charlotte is having a really rough season... but he actually looked pretty good at times.
Now the good news is they have a backup QB with starting experience. He took over for Duke in 2023 when Riley Leonard got injured. Duke went 2-2 in those games and he really wasn't that bad. I thought he was going to be the starting QB coming into the season... I was surprised when Harrell won the job.
He's gonna have his hands full in this one. He's gonna be going on the road against a South Florida defense that's trending upwards. I was really big on this defense coming into the season. They brought back a ton of production on that side of the ball and Todd Orlando seems to have everything on the right track.
They started off the season with back to back great defensive performances... they definitely got lit up on the road against Miami but I think we can cut them some slack for that one. That was a gauntlet of a schedule to start the year.
Charlotte's been throwing the ball a lot this season... I'm sure some of that is a result of being down on the scoreboard. I think Loftis could be alright but going on the road against this defense is tough.
On the other side, I gotta say the South Florida offense hasn't been all that great. They picked up a couple huge wins... but it's not like we've seen this offense consistently moving the ball.
We've seen this offense struggle in all 3 of their FBS games. Success rate under 35%... they went off against South Carolina State, which is an FCS program.
But the Charlotte defense is a lot closer to South Carolina State than it is Boise, Florida and Miami.
South Florida should win this comfortably. I'll say over... cuz both these teams run fast paces but I don't have a ton of interest.
WESTERN KENTUCKY @ DELAWARE - 7 PM
Another game with two fast-paced teams that both like to throw the ball.
Based on these season long numbers, you'd think Western Kentucky should be able to throw the ball on Delaware's defense.
Delaware hasn't shown much of a pass rush this year and Maverick Mcivor has been excellent from a clean pocket.
Now, I don't want to just completely sweep this game under the rug. Delaware went on the road and shut down a good Conference USA QB in Keyonne Jenkins. I rewatched that game... Jenkins threw a couple of really ugly INTs early in that game and Delaware had a punt return TD. There was a point in the game where Delaware was up 17-7 on FIU when the score shoulda been like 14-3. FIU really shot themselves in the foot early in this one. I doubt Mcivor will make those same mistakes like that. I like Western Kentucky to move the ball in this one.
But on the other side, this is where Delaware might be the best unit in the conference. This offense looks very strong.
Remember, this is an offense that lost their starting QB on the 2nd drive of the season. This is the backup QB and he's been excellent. We've seen enough of a sample size to say this isn't a fluke. He played really well in that FIU game.
I will say that this is probably the best pass rush they're gonna see so far this year. Colorado's might be better but they saw them early in the season and that's a brand new defensive front. Western Kentucky's been doing a solid job of creating pressure so far this year. But Minicucci has handled pressure well so far this year.
The environment should be awesome... you gotta think in the students and the home fans saw an awesome game a couple weeks ago. They saw their offense going nuts... they shot a shootout against UConn and pulled off the big upset. They're pumped... they can't wait for the next home game. Then while you're waiting for the next home game, you see your team go on the road and smoke a conference opponent. Friday night... I think this place is gonna be going nuts.
The problem is... the market seems to be on top of it. They got the Hens laying points to Western Kentucky. I'm not stepping in front of the Hens in this one but I'm not laying points to a better team. Give me the over... and at a full 3, I'd lean Western Kentucky.
NEW MEXICO @ SAN JOSE STATE - 10 PM
Man this San Jose State team... it's looking like the season of heartbreaks. San Jose State blew a 4th quarter double digit lead to Stanford. That's another win that they let slip through their fingers.
The most concerning part of that game was not the fact that they blew a 12 point 4th quarter lead though... it's the fact that they were getting absolutely pieced up by Gulbranson. Gulbranson has looked pretty bad so far this season... he had a monster game throwing the ball and it seemed like he had wide open WRs to throw to all game.
New Mexico's offense hasn't been nearly as bad as I thought it was gonna be. I didn't really know what to expect. Jason Eck is looking like a really strong hire.
They got off to a slow start, but who could blame them? They opened up the season in the Big House against Michigan. Since then, they've been putting points up. Now, we do need to consider the opponents. On the road against UCLA is supposed to be an impressive data point for New Mexico but that defense looks awful.
I haven't watched a ton of Jack Layne... but he's got great numbers from a clean pocket and after seeing what Gulbranson did to this San Jose State defense, I wouldn't be surprised if he can piece em up also.
On the other side of the ball, this is where I have a lot more faith in San Jose State. I know this graphic doesn't really show that.
But the last couple games, we're really seeing Eget start to get comfortable and we're starting to see the explosive passing attack that we saw last year. They lost those two NFL WRs and it look a couple games... but this offense looked really good in the Stanford game. They also just got WR Matthew Coleman back from injury last week who hadn't played since the CMU opener.
New Mexico has played some solid defense recently but they haven't seen an offense like this.
Back at home.. coming off the road loss, I expect San Jose State's offense to look good. Weather's supposed to be perfect. I think we see points.
I think this one gets up and over the total. This over has already taken a lotta money. There were 54's open at one point. I'd still lean over at 58.5 but New Mexico doesn't run the fastest pace. I like San Jose State under a FG. New Mexico's coming into this one on cloud 9 after back to back big wins. San Jose State's season is in trouble after a 1-3 start and this team is desperate for a win.
WEST VIRGINIA @ BYU - 10:30 PM
Nicco is gonna miss another game. I don't trust this offense at all with Nicco. Without Nicco, this is probably the worst Power 4 offense... in fact, I don't even think that's debatable. Remember this is a very injured offense. In addition to the QB being out, their star RB Jahiem White is out for the season. Their WR1 Jaden Bray is probably out for the season. They have 2 other RBs dealing with injuries and I'm not sure if they'll be available. The center Landen Livingston is also dealing with an injury and listed as questionable.
They're gonna go on the road and try to move the ball on this BYU defense... good luck. This pass rush has been great... not that I'd even trust West Virginia to throw the ball from a clean pocket.
The run game's been ok... but the passing attack is so unbelievably non-existent that it's really tough to sustain drives.
Now if you are looking to bet West Virginia, you can point at the fact that this BYU defense actually was getting run on last week on the road in Boulder. And this was actually the first time they saw a decent rushing attack. So maybe West Virginia is able to move the chains here and there... but it's hard to picture them posing any sort of threat offensively.
I gotta say though... I watched every snap of that Colorado game last week... Colorado jumped out to an early 14-0 and they were running the ball on BYU. But from that point on, BYU dominated that game. I was on Colorado +6.5 and I was sweating this one out to the last second.
And speaking of the Colorado game... we have to give Bear Bachmeier his flowers. Remember, he's a Freshman... he just made the first two road starts of his career on back to back weeks... and he played well in both games. In fact, he was really good in the Colorado game. He also rushed for 98 yards in that game.
West Virginia has a pass rush that needs to be respected. That pass rush basically single-handedly won them the Pittsburgh game... but Bachmeier's been getting the ball out quickly. After watching him in these road games back to back... I believe he'll handle the pressure just fine. He's also been excellent against the blitz... and West Virginia's been blitzing at an extremely high rate.
I'm sure West Virginia's defense is able to keep this somewhat competitive for a while... but eventually the lack of offense is gonna add up.
BYU should win comfortably. I'd only lay the points here.
COLORADO STATE @ SAN DIEGO STATE - 10:30 PM
So based on this graphic, this is gonna be tough sledding for Colorado State's offense.
We still need to point out that San Diego State's defense really only has one legitimate data point... a home game against Cal. Northern Illinois' offense is terrible... Washington State's offense is terrible and they actually blew San Diego State out.
That being said, do we consider Colorado State's offense to be a test? We don't even know who the QB is anymore. Fowler-Nicolosi got benched at the end of the UTSA game and they started Jackson Brousseau the following week against Washington State. It was a disaster.
Will Fowler-Nicolosi get his starting job back? They're not giving us any information on it... I will say... we have seen experienced starting QBs look terrible... get benched... then get their starting jobs back and look completely different. Remember Parker Navarro got benched last season. When he got his starting job back, that Ohio offense looked unstoppable and they went on to win the conference. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back at QB Friday night.
On the other side of the ball, this is where San Diego State's graphics start to turn red. I'm pretty sure Denegal is fine btw. He left the NIU game injured and missed a couple series but he returned to finish out the game. So SDSU will have their QB out there as far as I know.
It's tough to defend the San Diego State offense so far this year. One thing you could say though... this offense looked way better in their home game... and if you're thinking these numbers don't look that different. Keep in mind, Cal is by far the toughest defense they've seen. So their only home FBS game was their best offensive game so far... and it was against their toughest opponent. So I tend to trust this offense a bit more at home.
I know Colorado State's defense has played well the last few games... but there's a couple things to consider here. All 3 of these games were home in Fort Collins in the elevation. I know UTSA is in there but that team is not the same outside the dome. That was not a good spot for UTSA's offense. So I'm not overly impressed by these numbers. The only road game Colorado State has played so far this year, they got completely smoked.
Keep in mind, this is a Colorado State defense that is now down two defensive linemen. Wa-Kalonji and Gabe Jones are both out for the season. I think we see San Diego State's best offensive game.
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