CFB Week 4 Saturday
- Kyle Kirms
- Sep 20
- 26 min read
NORTH TEXAS @ ARMY - 12 PM EST
Two opposite teams. North Texas throws the ball and moves fast. Army does not.
Army's defense has been ok. The performance on the road against Kansas State was impressive. But I really am not sure if this North Texas offense can be stopped right now. They've been doing this injured also! RB Kiefer Sibley hasn't played the last couple games. TE Connor Vaughn hasn't played all season. RT Jimto Obidegwu got injured in the opener. Unsure of their status for Week 4 but I don't believe any of those guys are out for the season.
Mestemaker has been dynamite. Army's had virtually no pass rush this season. Remember their best edge rusher from last season transfered to Georgia. Mestemaker's been a monster from a clean pocket. He's been a monster under pressure as well. I don't see any reason the North Texas offensive onslaught doesn't continue.
The question is... can North Texas' defense get off the field defensively. That's how Army wins football games... you can't get that offense off the field. It really hasn't looked great this year.
WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH DEWAYNE COLEMAN? Did he lose the starting job?
But this North Texas defense seems to be on a different level this year with Skyler Kassidy at DC. I know that data point on the road at Western Michigan looks shaky. But they dominated that game. WMU scored 30 points but their offensive numbers were terrible.
I'm not big on Army this year and I feel the Kansas State game is giving us a false perception of them. North Texas on anything under 3.
SMU @ TCU - 12 PM EST
Numbers got nuked in this one. Now I know everyone's hammering TCU... but I wouldn't be so fast to count out this SMU offense.
They were in an absolute shootout against Baylor and they easily couda won that game. it went to overtime. Good news on the injury front: Jennings seems to be fine (he was dealing with an ankle injury). LT Andrew Chamblee is back after missing the first 2 games of the year. We dk about WR Jordan Hudson, (injured in the opener and haven't played since).
This is an SMU offense that's capable of making big plays and despite TCU blowing North Carolina out... we saw UNC connect on some big plays in that game.
TCU's defense is gonna be strong... but they haven't really been tested yet this year. They played North Carolina in their first game of the new era and then an FCS program. This is a very serious step up in competition. I think SMU is gonna move the ball in this game.
On the other side though? I'm not sure if they can stop this TCU offense. Sonny Dykes has his QB back and it's looking extremely smooth so far. That opener against UNC was impressive.
Remember... SMU lost that elite defensive front they had last year. Most of those guys are in the NFL. And so far, they've struggled to generate pressure... and if you're gonna give Josh Hoover space to work? They're going to score points. INJURIES ON THE SMU DEFENSE: We need a status on LB Alex Kilgore. He had a pick 6 in the opener and got injured. He hasn't played since. Their other LB Zakye Barker is also dealing with an injury. He didn't play in the Missouri State game. Their edge rusher Aakil Washington didn't play in the Missouri State game either.
I took the over at 61.5. Honestly... I'd still take the over at 64.5. I was leaning TCU at 3.5 but at +7, I feel like I'd be looking to take SMU just because I think that offense is gonna score points.
UNLV @ MIAMI (OHIO) - 12 PM EST
I know Miami Ohio's defensive numbers on the year look terrible. You gotta keep in mind, they opened up the season with back to back road games against Big Ten teams.
I think we'll see a much better defensive effort out of the RedHawks in this one. They're back at home... UNLV is still a tough opponent though. it's not like the competition gets easier. But at least they're back at home. Keep in mind, the Miami (OH) offense lost a ton of pieces, but I expect Miami Ohio's defense to be one of the strongest in the MAC. Colandrea looks great but he hasn't been tested at all. Their toughest opponent so far is UCLA and that defense is AWFUL.
On the other side, I'm not really sure what to expect here. UNLV's defense has not looked strong so far this year... but I don't think Miami OH's offense is very good. They also have been throwing the ball with DeQuan Finn a lot... UNLV looks vulnerable to the run. Miami OH hasn't shown us any form of rushing attack.
I would lean Miami OH +2.5 on the side. I do like the under though at 50.5.
BOWLING GREEN @ LOUISVILLE - 12 PM EST
Yeah it's gonna take a year or two for Eddie George to get this Bowling Green program up again. In addition to having a brand new coaching staff, they've also got a brand new roster, for the most part. The offense looks rough so far.
They picked up a huge win last week against Liberty... but let's be real about it. It certainly wasn't the offense.
Now they're gonna go on the road and try to move the football against the Louisville defense coming off a bye week? We saw James Madison try it a couple weeks ago.... it didn't go well.
There's really nothing on paper that indicates Bowling Green can move the football on this defense. That being said, Drew Pyne was completing some passes on the road against Cincinnati... and this could be a little but of a sleepy spot for Louisville. Right after this game, they get right into conference play and they've got a big one on deck on the road against Pitt. Also keep an eye on TE Arlis Boardingham... he transfered in from Florida and hasn't played yet this year... he should give Drew Pyne a safety blanket if he's on the field. And Louisville lost their best defensive player for the season. ILB Stanquan Clark is most likely done for the year.
I think Bowling Green is gonna move the ball in this game, even though on paper it doesn't really look like it. On the other side, I really think this Louisville offense is going to be strong... but we really haven't seen it yet.
It has not looked good for Miller Moss so far... he's a highly touted talent. I'm sure it'll improve as the season progresses. But I really haven't been impressed so far.
This should be the perfect matchup for him though. Bowling Green's defense was elite last year... but everyone's gone. We saw them go on the road and play a power 4 opponent in Cincinnati and they had no answers for Brendan Sorsby. He had all day to throw and basically did whatever he wanted. So if there was ever a matchup for Miller Moss to stretch his legs and put up a nice looking stat line, it's this one.
It would be Bowling Green +26.5 or OVER 52.5 for me in this one. I think Drew Pyne can complete some passes.
SYRACUSE @ CLEMSON - 12 PM EST
I don't care about the Colgate game... but I do think we need to respect the Syracuse passing attack. Jeff Nixon is clearly a talented OC and despite losing all those pieces on the offense, this is still an offense that can move the ball.
Which actually might workout in this matchup. This Clemson defense is elite against the run. They even were able to go on the road and hold Georgia Tech's rushing attack in check. I'm not as sold on the Clemson pass defense. The opener against LSU doesn't look as impressive now that we see LSU's offense is struggling. Goose Crowder was giving them problems. The pass rush doesn't seem to be nearly as elite as we thought it was gonna be. I wouldn't be surprised if Angeli is able to move the chains in this one. Syracuse will most likely be getting RB Yasin Willis and LT Trevion Mack back for this one. Mack missed the last 2. Clemson S Khalil Barnes is still listed as week to week. He hasn't played since the LSU opener.
On the other side of the ball, I mean... on paper, Clemson should put up 60 points. But the way they've been playing... the injuries just might be too much to overcome here.
We need to know if Clemson's getting these pieces back on the offensive line. It's looking like Antonio Williams won't be back until October.
Clemson's really struggled to protect Klubnik and without Antonio Williams... he just can't seem to get comfortable. If they're gonna be playing these games without their star WR, you at least have to give the QB time to throw.
Now the good news is... Syracuse' defense isn't any good. But Fran Brown might have this unit trending in the right direction. They played a decent defensive game against UConn... which is actually a respectable offense. It's not Clemson... but they were pretty good in that game. Remember Fran Brown is a defensive coach... this is year 2. I wouldn't be surprised if the Syracuse defense actually surprises us and is decent down the stretch this season.
I know we all think it's only a matter of time before Clemson goes off. Maybe it happens in this game. But with the injuries... I don't see how you lay 17.5 points in this game. Keep in mind, Syracuse actually played Tennessee pretty tough. Syracuse had the ball 1st and goal with 2 minutes left... they woulda covered. I think we all perceive Tennessee to be better than Clemson right now. Gimme Syracuse +17.5.
MARYLAND @ WISCONSIN - 12 PM EST
These early season defensive numbers from Wisconsin don't tell the whole story.
Now they are dealing with a key injury. OLB Corey Walker is gonna mis another game. But I truly believe this is gonna be a really strong defense. Maybe not quite on the level of the Jim Leonard Wisconsin defenses but I do think this is by far the strongest Luke Fickell Wisconsin defense we've seen. I'm not gonna let last week change my opinion on that. They got cooked on the road in Tuscaloosa... and I have a feeling we're gonna be seeing a lot of that. Ty Simpson really seems to be getting comfortable.
As far as the Maryland offense... well it hasn't been efficient at all. I know they're putting up big numbers on the scoreboard but they're not consistently moving the ball. Keep in mind... they haven't played anybody. Their toughest opponent so far was Northern Illinois and that's a defense that lost everybody from last year.
They do have a bright spot though. Malik Washington looks electric. College Football heads are already saying this dude's gonna be QB of a major program next season. He's clearly a play-maker and makes Maryland's offense a threat to score at any moment.
But we have to keep in mind... he hasn't played anybody. He's only been pressured on 18.4% of his dropbacks on the season. So as talented as this kid is... we haven't seen him even remotely tested. This is a Freshman making his first career road start against the toughest defense he's ever seen by a mile. This is an insane elevation in competition.
On the other side of the ball, I'm not really sure what to do with Maryland's defense. They haven't played anybody... but they've been elite.
I don't want to just shit on Maryland and sweep what they've done defensively under the rug because these are elite defensive numbers... but in terms of offenses, they've seen Towson, Northern Illinois and FAU in their first game with Kittley at HC and Veltkamp at QB. They've played legitimately nobody.
But how much of a step up in competition is Wisconsin? This offense really doesn't look good. Keep in mind, Billy Edwards Jr. is still injured and they're rocking with Danny O'Neil at QB. Even the Middle Tennessee game has a deceiving box score. Middle Tennessee had the ball in Wisconsin territory down 14-10 in the 3rd quarter. Wisconsin put a few TDs on em late to run it up... but the offense was struggling in that one. This is not looking like a threat. So even though I don't really believe in Maryland's defense, I don't trust this Wisconsin offense at all.
Early money came in on Wisconsin and pushed this number up to 10. I would make this game 8.5... so at 10, it would be Maryland. And that pains me to say because I hate this Terps team. I don't trust the Wisconsin offense to move the ball. Maryland +10.5 and UNDER 44.5.
TEXAS TECH @ UTAH - 12 PM EST
This is such an underrated game. The Big 12 is a circus and we can't make any sort of bold declarations. But as of right now, you'd think these 2 and Iowa State seem to be the 3 big dogs. This is an absolutely huge game. We haven't really seen either team tested at all, which obviously makes this a bit challenging. A road game @ UCLA was supposed to be a test for Utah... but it turns out that UCLA is truly one of the worst teams in the country.
Texas Tech has smoked every team they've seen... not saying much when you're toughest matchup is a home game against Oregon State. But now they're going on the road to Rice-Eccles... and this is where we've seen Behren Morton struggle. We know Morton can cook defenses up at home in Lubbock. But in harsh road enviroments, under pressure... this is where we've seen him struggle. And this building is going to be nuts.
This Utah defense has looked elite... not against the toughest competition but they did play two road games already. They're much more battle tested than Texas Tech's offense.
This is supposed to be the strongest Texas Tech offense we've seen in the last few years.. and this is a Utah defense that did take some losses in the front 7. But it's tough to say what's gonna happen on this side of the ball.
On the other side of the ball, kind of the same story. Both of these units have looked elite... neither of them have been really tested. That UCLA data point doesn't mean much looking back now.
Utah's offense has looked every bit as dominant as the defense... again though, they haven't been tested at all. That Wyoming defense took a lot of losses from last year.
Same goes for Texas Tech. The defense looks elite but they haven't played anybody.
I really don't know what to do with this one. This is an awesome game and I understand why everyone's laying the points with Utah. It definitely seems to be the safer option. I think the game goes over the total... as far as a side, I kinda wanna bet Texas Tech. But I really don't think this is a good bet. I just wanna have a rooting interest in the game. Gimme that +3.5 I may gamble on this.
ARKANSAS @ MEMPHIS - 12 PM EST
The first question we need to ask with this one is... is this Memphis defense for real? They're off to a really strong start defensively this season.
Look at these Memphis pass rush numbers so far this year. Taylen Green has had problems making throws under pressure this year. Now he's a wild athlete and has made plenty of plays with his legs. But as far as throwing the ball, he's averaging 2.8 YPA when pressured this season. So if this Memphis pass rush is for real, maybe that's something we consider.
The problem is... Memphis hasn't really played anybody... and actually Georgia State was giving them problems throughout most of that game. So I think we've got a case of limited sample size against poor competition. I would imagine the Arkansas offense should be fine.
I gotta say I don't love the scheduling spot for Arkansas though. You've got the first ever in-state rivalry matchup against Arkansas State, @ Oxford, then this random non-con road game against Memphis, then they immediately play Notre Dame. After that, it's right into the heart of their SEC schedule. This is by far the least important game remaining on Arkansas' schedule.
Memphis might be able to move the ball in this game. This Arkansas defense isn't very good. Ole Miss was carving them up with a D2 QB last week. I'm not a huge Brendon Lewis fan... but after watching Arkansas' defense last week, I think he'll be fine at home in this one.
And honestly, I'm kinda up on this Memphis offense as a whole right now. I really thought going on the road against that Troy defensive front was gonna be a problem for them. We saw Troy give Clemson's offense problems. Well, Memphis was running the ball without issues. They controlled that game start to finish.
I completely understand why this number got nuked early... but honestly at 7.5? I'm considering a Memphis bet.
UAB @ TENNESSEE - 12:45 PM EST
This is pretty simple... Tennessee can literally name their number in this one. UAB has legitimately one of the worst defenses in the country.
Alabama State is an FCS program... they lit this UAB defense up.
The question is gonna be on the other side. Can UAB move the ball on Tennessee's defense? Honestly, they might be able to get the ball in the endzone once or twice. This is not a bad offense... in fact, since making the QB switch to Kitna halfway through the year last season, Trent Dilfer kinda has this offense rolling.
UAB went into Navy and put up a serious fight. They were moving the ball. Almost 7 YPP. Kitna had himself a pretty good game.
Now the Navy secondary might be a bit vulnerable this year. That's not Tennessee. But remember, this is a Tennessee defense that's missing both its corners and it really hasn't looked all that elite.
I don't think I can bet against Tennessee coming off that Georgia loss. They might take out their frustration on poor old UAB. But it would only be Blazers +39.5 for me here. Honestly, maybe a UAB live bet... let Tennessee grab an early 21-0 lead then try to get UAB +49.5 or something.
OREGON STATE @ OREGON - 3 PM EST
The civil war.... not much of a war... Ducks are laying 5 TDs in this one. Honestly, the first thing that jumps out at me here is that we've got two very slow paced teams based on what we've seen so far this year.
I mean... there's not much to say as far as matching these two teams up. One of these teams is excellent and one of these teams is really struggling. It's tough to poke holes in Oregon. Keep in mind, if you're looking at the spreadsheet thinking "oh wow Northwestern was able to run the ball on em!". That's not what happened. Northwestern had a 77 yard TD run with a minute left in the game down 4 TDs. Take that play out and Northwestern wasn't doing anything against this defense.
Oregon State is still missing their LT I believe. Oregon might be missing one of their RBs Noah Whittington but they've got plenty of guys that can carry the ball.
LOUISIANA @ EASTERN MICHIGAN - 3:30 PM EST
Good lord... look at this battle.
Louisiana's offense doesn't look good in the post-Wooldridge era. Keep in mind, the QB they brought in through the portal to replace Wooldridge, Walker Howard, is out for the season. They've got Freshman Daniel Beale starting... and wow, it's been really bad. He's started two games.... and look at these passing numbers.
Now I don't know what to do with this matchup... cuz you could say "well Eastern Michigan has one of the worst defenses in the country. They couldn't even make stops against LIU!"... but at the same time, Daniel Beale couldn't move the ball against McNeese. So what's gonna give here?
Now Louisiana has been running the ball pretty well... so I'm sure they can run it on this awful EMU defense. Now there may be some good news for EMU though. Dramarian McNulty is their best defensive player... he hasn't played yet this year. He was listed as questionable last week against Kentucky so they might be getting him on the field. They were also missing another one of the main pieces on that defense Mowchan (McNulty and Mowchan are team captains). I don't know his status... but if they have both those guys on the field, this EMU defense would be a lot better.
On the other side of the ball, this is where Eastern Michigan should find some success. Eastern Michigan has a pretty good offense... the defense has been so bad that we haven't really noticed it. Unfortunately, they've got injuries to the offense line as well. Mickey Rewolinski hasn't played yet this year and Joshua Anderson both didn't play against Kentucky.
Louisiana did play some really good defense in the first two games... but it was against Rice, an option offense playing their first game with a new coaching staff and a new roster... and McNeese. I don't think this defense is good.
I like Eastern Michigan to put points up in this game... the injury uncertainties are gonna keep me off of anything though.
NORTH CAROLINA @ UCF - 3:30 PM EST
This is the ultimate "I have no idea what's going on" game. In what world is UCF a touchdown favorite over North Carolina? I know they look better on paper but they've played literally nobody.
This was their toughest game... a home game against Jacksonville State. Keep in mind, this is not last year's Jacksonville State team. Rich Rod left. It's a Jacksonville State team that lost almost their entire roster. Jacksonville State is not gonna be a good football team this year. UCF opens up with a home game against them. That game was tied 10-10 with a minute left. UCF scored a TD with 1 minute left to win. Their only other game was North Carolina A&T.
I'm not going to pretend that things look great for North Carolina... but they opened up the season against a really strong TCU team that brings back most of its roster. They only beat Charlotte 20-3... ok that's concerning. But it was a road game... they won by 3 scores. That's still WAY more impressive than anything UCF has done.
Look... clearly somebody is betting UCF that's a lot sharper than I am. If somebody is able to buy this market up from 6.5 to 7, it's clearly somebody or some bodies that has influence. Maybe I'm an idiot. I think North Carolina might be the better team. Scott Frost is working with a lot of FCS pieces on this roster. I'm on North Carolina +6.5 and the ML. You can get 7 now. I don't get it.
KENT STATE @ FLORIDA STATE - 3:30 PM EST
I mean... it's Kent State on the road in Tallahassee and Florida State looks strong.
DeShields has actually been nice when given a clean pocket... probably irrelevant information. Not sure how many clean pockets he's gonna have to throw from in this game.
Kent State almost grabbed themselves a conference win last week. They were 3 TD underdogs in this game too... so maybe Kent State is slightly better than we originally perceived.
I don't want to look at this game anymore... Florida State's got a short week and goes right into conference play.
Maybe a look ahead spot. I honestly have no idea. Give me Kent State +45.5.
TROY @ BUFFALO - 3:30 PM EST
Buffalo's definitely been disappointing so far this year but it's not the defensive front. They've been very strong against the run so far this year.
Now if this was a week ago, I'd say "look out... Troy has a QB that can sling the ball". But Goose Crowder got injured last week... which means we're going to see Tucker Kilcrease at QB. I'm not sure if he's the guy to exploit Buffalo's secondary. I'm not really worried about the Buffalo defense in this one.
On the other side of the ball is where I worry a bit about Buffalo... but at the same time, we do need to take note that we're dealing with some extremities when it comes to data points. On the road against a Big Ten defense in the opener is not exactly a fair reference for a MAC program. They did look better in the next two games but St. Francis and Kent State? Troy's defense is strong... not on the road at Minnesota strong... but much stronger than St. Francis and Kent State.
AUBURN @ OKLAHOMA - 3:30 PM EST
Obviously the lead story in this one... Jackson Arnold returns to Norman. This is gonna be awesome.
This is the battle right here. This might be the best offensive line in College Football against the best defensive line in College Football. I kinda feel like we're gonna know pretty early what's going on here. If Auburn comes out and is able to run the ball on this defensive front, then it's gonna be a long day for Oklahoma. If Auburn comes out and can't generate push on the offensive line, it's gonna be a long day for Auburn.
Now you might be thinking "Kyle but Michigan couldn't even run the ball on this defense". Yes you're right, Michigan couldn't run the ball on this defense. This is not the 2023 Michigan team. This offensive line is inexperienced and not nearly on the level that Auburn is.
The question's gonna be... is Jackson Arnold gonna be able to connect on a few big throws to keep this defense honest. What we've seen from Auburn's offense so far... run the football... throw the ball underneath. We have not seen much downfield passing. You know Oklahoma is gonna load the box up. There will be opportunities for Jackson Arnold to be a hero. Will he connect on those plays.
On the other side, Oklahoma's offense has been pretty much the Mateer show. He's been excellent. If you've watched any Oklahoma football, you already know that. He's clearly one of the most talented QBs in the country.
I will say... if you're looking to poke holes in this Oklahoma offense, you could say that the only time they saw a decent defense was the Michigan game and there wasn't any run support. Mateer had 74 of these rush yards. ALSO REMEMBER OKLAHOMA LOST THEIR CENTER IN THE OPENER.
The Auburn run defense looks pretty solid. They were good against the run in the opener on the road against a very explosive Baylor offense.
Where Auburn got lit up was through the air. And it makes sense... Baylor might have a top 10 offense in the country... maybe top 5. But Mateer definitely has explosive play-ability. There are going to be opportunities for him to make big plays.
But as a whole, you can't convince me that Oklahoma is a touchdown better than Auburn. This reminds me a lot of the A&M Notre Dame game. Clearly there are sharp bettors taking positions on Oklahoma. I strongly disagree. I would make this game 4. I'm on Auburn. I think they get their revenge from last year... a game they should have won.
MICHIGAN @ NEBRASKA - 3:30 PM EST
We all saw what happened at Oklahoma a couple weeks back. Oklahoma just took the run away from Michigan and forced the Freshman QB to beat em.
So you might think... hey the recipe to beat this Michigan team is written... load the box and take the run away. Why doesn't Nebraska just do that? Here's the problem with that... Oklahoma might have the best defensive line in the country. That's a top 5 run defense right there. Nebraska is not that... 2024 Nebraska had a great run defense. Most of those pieces are gone. We've seen Nebraska play one legitimate opponent this season... Cincinnati in the opener. And the Bearcats were running the football in that game.
I don't think Nebraska is capable of taking the run away in this one like Oklahoma did. That's gonna take a lot of pressure off of Underwood, (who is a couple games more experienced btw). I think Michigan is gonna move the ball in this game. I like Nebraska's offense this year... I think the defense might take a step backwards.
On the other side of the ball, this is where I think Nebraska can surprise us. Nebraska's got a very strong offensive line this year... Raiola's no longer a Freshman. I like the Cornhuskers offense this season.
And I'm not sure how elite Michigan's defense is. I know they did an ok job on the road at Oklahoma and people are perceiving this as a solid defensive effort. But, I'm not really sure how good I think Oklahoma's offense is. They were a terrible offense last year... seems like Mateer puts out a couple of cool highlights and we all just forgot how bad they've been offensively.
I'm not really sure what to do with this one.
NC STATE @ DUKE - 4 PM EST
So last week, I bet Duke. I took at +1.5 that closed at +2... market hated my bet... and the market was right. Tulane jumped out to an early lead and Duke just couldn't get back into the game. That makes 2 games in a row where the defensive line did their job... they took the run away and they generated pressure. But the Duke secondary just can't seem to make plays. Duke has gotten thrown on in back to back games.
Now on paper, that should be a very good matchup for CJ Bailey and the NC State offense. This is an offense that hasn't had much of a rushing attack this year. They haven't played much defense either. What they do have is a superstar QB. So this Duke secondary that seems to be struggling should be a solid matchup for NC State's offense.
The thing is... this Duke defensive line has been so strong. Shutting down Illinois and Tulane on the ground... you've got NC State coming in... an offensive line that doesn't score you... a rushing attack that doesn't scare you. I really think Duke has a ton of flexibility in terms of defensive play calling. I really like Duke to show us a great defensive effort here. I could see CJ Bailey turning the ball over a time or two in this one.
Duke has clearly struggled with explosive plays and NC State's offense is known to create some... so I'm sure CJ Bailey will connect on a big play or two. But I also think Duke's defense is gonna make some big plays as well. On the other side of the ball, Duke's gonna give us some explosive plays of their own... this NC State defense has not been nearly as good as the stats indicate.
If you look at their full season numbers, it doesn't look like NC State's defense has been that bad. But we watched Virginia absolutely cook this defense. We watched Wake Forest marching up and down the field on this defense in the 1st half. Mensah has really impressed me and there should be plenty of opportunities for Duke to make big plays in this game.
I know they lost back to back games but this Duke offense has been pretty good.
I'm on Duke. Unfortunately, I was hesitant and didn't get it at under 3. I'm on Duke -3.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ MISSISSIPPI STATE - 4:15 PM EST
The main question in this game is we need to know if the Northern Illinois defense is for real... because the offense might be the worst in College Football. This was already a terrible offense last year... and they lost everybody.
Look at these numbers. They've played Holy Cross and Maryland.
By no means am I saying Mississippi State's defense is good... in fact, it was the worst defense in the SEC last year. But it seems to be better this season. Year 2 with the coaching staff... they brought back a lot of production on that side of the ball. They're looking much better to start the season. I don't trust Northern Illinois to score points on MAC defenses this year.
It's the other side of the ball that's interesting. Are we buying what Northern Illinois' defense did against Maryland? Was that Maryland playing poorly or is this NIU defense good?
On the road in Starkville is a tough ask. This Mississippi State offense looks strong to start the year.
Now Miss State did lose their starting RT for the season. But he was out for the Arizona State game and they still moved the ball and won that game outright as a 7 point underdog. But now Albert Reese who is the backup RT who's starting in Blake Steen's spot... he is questionable and may not play.
It would only be Miss State -22.5... I think NIU is terrible. But the offensive line injury concerns is gonna keep me off.
DELAWARE @ FIU - 6 PM EST
Delaware might have themselves a player here. They lose their starting QB just a few minutes into Week 1. The backup QB comes in... Nick Minicucci. He's been slinging the ball all over the field. He was making throws on the road against Colorado in Week 2. Then last week, alotta people expected the magic to stop. They beat UConn outright and he had a great game.
So can this Minicucci magical run continue on into conference play. They open up on the road @ FIU... who's actually played some decent defense so far this season.
Their numbers against the pass in the last two games are definitely impressive. On the road at Penn State.... now I'm sure James Franklin wasn't exactly opening the playbook up in a home game against FIU... but still Penn State was struggling to move the ball for most of that game. Then last week, they played well against the FAU offense with Kittle and Veltkamp. This might be a solid pass defense. I'm not sure if Minicucci is gonna be able to have another big game throwing the ball here. Keep in mind, Delaware has injuries at the WR position too. Jake Thaw might miss another game and Thomas Amankwaa hasn't played yet this year either.
FIU's defense has been vulnerable to the run... but Delaware doesn't really run the ball much. So this actually might be a tougher matchup for the Blue Hens offense. We might really see them come back down to earth.
On the other side of the ball, this is where FIU should have the sizeable advantage. They're at home... with an experienced QB... against a team playing in their first FBS conference game.
We've seen this Delaware secondary get pieced up in back to back games... yes Colorado is a P4 and UConn has a strong offense... but Jenkins is a good QB. He should be able to make throws on this Delaware defense.
I really dk how to price this game because I still don't really have a feel for this Delaware team... but FIU looks pretty strong. I'd lean FIU at -5.5.
BYU @ ECU - 7:30 PM EST
BYU's offense has solid looking numbers so far but we haven't seen anything. They played an FCS team and a home game against Stanford. They beat Stanford 27-3, but honestly the offense didn't even really play that well. LJ Martin looked good running the ball but I'm not sure how much of a passing attack BYU has with Bear Bachmeier right now.
It's not easy to go on the road to Greenville and move the football. ECU doesn't always have the best team overall... but they tend to play good defense at home. I realize that the East Carolina defensive numbers on the year may be a bit of fool's gold. They played back to back cupcake games.
But we saw it in the opener.... we know that NC State offense can put up points with CJ Bailey and ECU played a solid defensive game. NC State couldn't run the ball at all... CJ Bailey was able to complete some passes and they lost 24-17 but Bear Bachmeier is definitely not CJ Bailey. Now BYU can definitely run the ball a lot more efficiently than NC State can... but I really think the ECU defense can slow this offense down. I wouldn't be surprised if BYU really struggles to move the ball in this one.
On the other side, the BYU defense has been essentially perfect so far this year.
They're allowing 1.5 PPG and under 2.1 YPP.
This ECU offense definitely has the capability of making big plays. We saw it in the 2nd half of last season when they made the change at head coach and Houser started playing QB. This team takes shots... they've been a bit 1 dimensional so far this year... but the explosive passing attack seems to still be there.
Here's the thing though... they haven't played ANYBODY.
The only half decent defense they've seen this year is NC State... and not only does NC State's defense look terrible this year... but ECU struggled to move the ball in that game.
And last year when they went on that offensive rampage late in the season, who did they play? Houser went off against Temple, FAU, Tulsa and North Texas. Those are 4 of the worst defenses in the country in 2024. Then they saw a respectable defense in Navy and they didn't look good.
I can't back ECU here... it would only be BYU. I don't mind an under though at 49.5.
ARIZONA STATE @ BAYLOR - 7:30 PM EST
This was the easiest decision on the board. Who is making stops in this game? Sawyer Robertson has been excellent. Keep in mind, this dude has played SMU and Auburn already. This isn't like some of the other QB stats you're looking at at this point of the season. This dude has already played two possible CFB Playoff teams and he's still cooking.
This Arizona State defense isn't great. It's not a bad defense but I truly think Baylor would put up 35 points on anybody. We saw Arizona State go on the road already and Blake Shapen was piecing them up.
And on the other side of the ball, I don't trust Baylor's defense at all. The two tough opponents they've seen so far this season are Auburn and SMU. Look at their numbers in those two games. Arizona State is also most likely getting weapons back - RB1 Kyson Brown got injured in the opener and hasn't played since. He returned to practice. WR Jalen Moss also got injured in the opener and should be back.
I grabbed the over as soon as I saw it at 56.5. I'd play it up to 64.
ILLINOIS @ INDIANA - 7:30 PM EST
The big question in this one is Illinois' offensive line against Indiana's defensive front. Is Illinois gonna be able to generate push? Cignetti has given us a rock solid run defense every year dating back to James Madison.
We've already seen Illinois go on the road against a tough defensive front... and they could not get the run game going at all. Duke's defensive line shut the run down.
So how did Illinois win that game? Two reasons... one is the fact that Duke turned the ball over 5 times. The other is Luke Altmyer and if you're an Illinois fan, you're loving what you're seeing so far this season from Altmyer. He's doing two things extremely well. He's getting the ball out quickly and he's handling pressure extremely well.
Remember, this is a QB that's no stranger to playing in harsh road environments. In fact, in all of College Football, I'm not sure if there's any active QB that has played in more harsh road environments than Luke Altmyer. He just played in Duke, @ Nebraska, @ Penn State, @ Oregon, @ Rutgers (ok), @ Kansas, @ Minnesota. This dude has been through the gauntlet in his career.
On the other side of the ball, we haven't learned much about the Indiana offense yet. The numbers look excellent but they've played two cake games.
They opened the season against Old Dominion and ODU actually played em pretty tough. They averaged almost 7 YPP on this defense. It was the first game of the season so let's not go crazy about it. Also, Old Dominion is looking like a problem. They just went on the road and absolutely smoked Virginia Tech.
The reason I can't trust this Illinois defense is I can't unsee that Duke game. Duke only scored 19 points but it was all the turnovers. Duke averaged almost 7 YPP in that game with a success rate over 48%.
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