CFB Week 14 Thursday

NAVY @ MEMPHIS - 7:30 PM

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First time Memphis has lost back to back football games since 2022.

It's Senior Day for Memphis and we get to see a rematch of this absolute shootout we saw last season. 100 points scored in the game.

Memphis is no longer in the conference championship race, but they'd love to play spoiler and knock Navy out. Navy's coming off their big upset against South Florida and it's their first time playing on Thanksgiving Day since 1898. Navy does NOT control their destiny. They need to win and they need one of North Texas and Tulane to lose.

I really don't like this matchup for Navy. Memphis has been really strong up front. Where they've struggled is in coverage. Their pass rush hasn't been great and pocket passers have been able to throw the ball on em. But against the run? Memphis has been excellent this year. Also, how healthy is Blake Horvath? He got injured and left the South Florida game. He also didn't play the previous week against Notre Dame.

Even in the two games they just lost, they weren't really getting run on.

Memphis has already seen an option offense this year. They went on the road in Week 10 and completely shut Rice down. Now... Navy is a much stronger offense than Rice.

And this Navy offenses hasn't looked nearly as strong the last couple weeks, now that they're seeing legitimate defenses.

On the other side, good news for Memphis, Brendon Lewis should be good to go. He left the ECU game injured. He came back in and finished the game. It was a wrist injury... it wasn't the ankle injury that he had earlier in the season. So coming off the bye week, he'll be good to go. He should have zero problems throwing the ball on Navy's secondary who hasn't been able to cover anybody all seas.

Memphis should be able to sustain drives and connect on big plays.

This number opened at 6, which I thought was perfect. But it's dropping. I'd go Memphis anything under 6 and if I could get a flat 4, I'd bet it.