CFB Week 14 Saturday
- Kyle Kirms
- 43 minutes ago
- 14 min read
TEXAS TECH @ WEST VIRGINIA - 12 PM
Texas Tech needs a win here to get to the Big 12 Championship game. I believe they could still possibly get there with a loss, but they'll need help. Senior Day.
Looks like Behren Morton is gonna play. He's listed as probable.
We can't sleep on West Virginia's defense though. This team turned a corner. West Virginia's defense has actually played in the last 4 games. They've been a bit vulnerable to the pass, but the run defense has been elite.
Not to mention, this is a defense that's been much better in Morgantown all year. Remember... this team beat Pittsburgh in Morgantown. Pitt might play in the ACC Championship game. Pitt went into Georgia Tech and smacked em around... but couldn't handle West Virginia in Morgantown.
And this Texas Tech offense hasn't been as good on the road. In fact, Behren Morton's been significantly worse on the road his entire career. I think West Virginia can give this offense problems.
Now on the other side of the ball? I'm not sure what we're expecting West Virginia to do offensively. They're much better than these numbers show... but Texas Tech has an SEC level defensive line. WVU RB Hubbard will miss this game. He got injured against ASU. With White and Edwards already injured, this means West Virginia will be rocking with the 4th and 5th string RBs in this one.
Now West Virginia's offense has been better, without question. Since making the QB change to Scotty Fox, we're seeing something that resembles a passing attack. Rich Rod's offense seems to be cliquing slightly better... but it's still not great.
You would think the fact that the ball's out of Scotty Fox hands immediately would be a positive... neutralize Texas Tech's pass rush. But Texas Tech doesn't blitz. So sure, the ball's out of Scotty Fox's hands quickly but Texas Tech defenders should be making the tackle immediately.
I would love to take an under... 52.5 is a big number. I think West Virginia can give em problems... Texas Tech's defense is elite. The reason an under's tough here... these two teams are so fast-paced.
I can't trust West Virginia to score points. Texas Tech has 10 wins... all 10 were by 22 or more points. So they're down to run it up. I'll say under 52.5 I guess.
ECU @ FAU - 12 PM
So ECU is mathematically still alive in the conference championship race but they would need North Texas to lose to Temple and Tulane to lose to Charlotte. So they're basically eliminated. FAU is eliminated from bowl eligibility at 4-7. ECU going for their 8th regular season win for the first time since 2014.
ECU is 3-0 lifetime against FAU. In fact, FAU has never even come within single digits of ECU.
This might be the fastest paced game of the year.
It's hard to see ECU not scoring a lotta points in this game. FAU's defense is not great. ECU might be missing their LT Jimarian McCrimon; he left the UTSA game injured and is questionable. They might be getting WR Yannick Smith back though after missing 1 game. ECU ALSO DEALING WITH AN ILLNESS? DOZEN PLAYERS MISSED PRACTICE DUE TO AN ILLNESS APPRENTLY.
ECU likes to throw the ball with Katin Houser... FAU has gotten completely smoked through the air in back to back games.
The question is on the other side of the ball... ECU's defense is excellent. But this might actually be a tough matchup for em. They're elite against the run and they blitz a lot. Well... FAU doesn't run the ball. They're 2nd in the country in pass frequency.
ECU's blitz packages could be a problem... but Veltkamp gets the ball out quickly. In fact, reading blitz packages and finding the open target has actually been one of his best strengths this year. In the American Conference, only Byrum Brown has better numbers against the blitz than Veltkamp.
Veltkamp has been cooking in this building. He's actually 2nd in the country in pass yards.
I don't have it in me to take FAU cuz I really can't trust em to make stops. But I truly don't think they can make this total high enough. We should see north of 70 points in this game. Weather supposed to be fine.
KENTUCKY @ LOUISVILLE - 12 PM
Governor’s Cup. Kentucky playing for bowl eligibility. Senior Day for Louisville. Louisville not trying to end the season with 4 straight losses.
Kentucky's defense is too injured right now. They just lost another defensive player LB Kam Olds last week. There's a chance that they're getting a bunch of players back this week but they're not telling us anything. But the Louisville offense is just as broken. WR1 Chris Bell is not gonna play. QB Miller Moss is questionable but it doesn't sound like he's gonna play. Both RBs are out Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown. Duke Watson is gonna be the lead back and he's been on and off the field with injuries also.
On the other side of the ball, I'm not sure how we count on Kentucky consistently moving the ball in this game. Louisville's defense is official. And unlike the offense, they're actually in pretty good shape injury-wise.
Cutter Boley against the Louisville pass rush is hilarious. I know you're thinking that Louisville is a step down from the SEC competition Kentucky's seen. But the pass rush? That's an SEC level pass rush.
Kentucky couldn't move the ball on Vanderbilt's defense.
I'd probably go under 46.5.
CLEMSON @ SOUTH CAROLINA - 12 PM
Clemson's gotten the better of South Carolina in this rivalry. South Carolina did win last year, 17-14.
They've been even better than that on the road.
I know Clemson plays an ACC schedule and South Carolina plays an SEC schedule. But this number just still feels off to me.
I think it stems from the fact that Clemson didn't look good at all in the Louisville game. They won but probably didn't deserve to.
I'm not even saying I expect Clemson to move the ball in this one. I could see South Carolina's defense giving them problems. EDGE Dylan Stewart is gonna play. He was held out of the Coastal game precautionary.
It's the other side of the ball... I just don't know what we're expecting to see from South Carolina on offense. Clemson's been elite defensively all year.
I guess you can say that this South Carolina offense looks different since firing the OC.... but they really just caught Texas A&M offguard in the 1st half. They didn't do much of anything in the 2nd half.... and last week, they played Coastal.
I'm on Clemson... I got a bad number +1.5.
TOLEDO @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN - 12 PM
Huge game. Senior Day.
I gotta say... I understand why the number is so big. Toledo is the significantly better team. But I do have my concerns about Toledo's home/away splits.
They played some tougher competition on the road... but this is crazy.
This Central Michigan defense has been excellent recently. I know Toledo's a step up in competition... but I still can't see them just marching up and down the field on this defense.
Now on the other side, I understand why the market gives a huge advantage to Toledo here. But keep in mind, this is an option offense. It's different and tough to prepare for. QB2 Angel Flores might be returning after missing 4 games also. He missed 4 games and still leads the team in rushing.
I don't think this number should be above 10. They opened it at 9.5... that's about where I would have it. So it'll be Central Michigan for me here.
HOUSTON @ BAYLOR - 12 PM
Aranda will remain the coach next season. Senior Day.
I really don't know what to do with this one. Baylor is still playing for bowl eligibility, but they can't seem to get out of their own way.
Look at the last 4 games.
Conner Weigman hasn't played very well in the last two games, but Houston has been running the ball. I would imagine they're able to run the ball on Baylor.
On the other side of the ball, Baylor's offense is obviously the strength of the team but Houston's defense is strong.
Baylor's offense hasn't even played that well.
It should be a good matchup for Baylor. Houston blitzes a lot and Robertson has solid numbers against the blitz. He gets the ball out quickly.
I guess I'd lean Baylor but I'm not laying 2.5. I think the total's being bet down because of the wind. I'll say over now that you can get a 57 but I'm not betting this.
OHIO STATE @ MICHIGAN - 12 PM
We all know the lore here. Michigan was a 20.5 point underdog in last year's win. Michigan has not won 5 in a row against Ohio State since the 1920s.
What makes this matchup even more electric. It's sort of a Big Ten Championship Semi-final. If Ohio State wins, they're in. If Michigan wins, they need one of Indiana or Oregon to lose. It doesn't get better than this.
So obviously, we know Ohio State's gonna have the advantage on both sides of the ball. There are injury concerns though. Both star WRs are questionable, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. I'm reading they're optimistic that both will play but who knows? Michigan's got injury concerns also. LB Ernest Hausmann (leading tackler) did not play against Maryland and is questionable. S Rod Moore is most likely done for the season.
Michigan's been lights out defensively, but I do have to question the strength of opponents here. The only dangerous offense on here is Washington and they were missing two offensive linemen in that game. Regardless, still not comparable to Ohio State. The last time Michigan saw an offense comparable to Ohio State would be Week 7 @ USC and they got absolutely smoked in that game.
Here's the thing... you can kinda say the same thing about Ohio State's offense. The only two defenses they've seen that can be compared to Michigan would be Texas and Penn State. We saw two very different offensive performances.
Also, the weather's a factor. We might see snow. The Big House will be nuts. I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State's offense struggles a bit.
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State has the huge advantage.
I will say though... what rushing attacks has Ohio State seen this year? Penn State is the only offense they've seen all year that can run the ball... and they played that game with Freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer making his 2nd career start... in Columbus. So it was a very favorable environment for Ohio State's defense.
I think Michigan's gonna run the ball in this game. Justice Haynes may still be out but Jordan Marshall's back. In fact, apparently Jordan Marshall could have returned for the Maryland game and he was held out to preserve him for this one. The only game where Michigan struggled to run the ball was on the road in Norman against the best defensive line in the country. At home, in the cold? I wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan moving the chains on the ground. Michigan FB/TE Max Bredeson (team captain) will most likely miss this one and this is a key loss.
As far as Bryce Underwood against the Ohio State pass rush? It's a tough sell. NB Lorenzo Styles Jr. left the Rutgers game... so Ohio State's secondary might be missing a piece, but I still don't expect Underwood to do much through the air.
On paper, we shouldn't see many big plays on this one either way.
As far as betting this? I really don't know. With the snow added in, I'm not sure where I'd price this one. I'd lean Michigan at anything 10 or higher... but as of right now, I don't have anything in this one.
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH - 12 PM
Massive game. Pittsburgh needs to win and they need 1 of SMU or Virginia to lose.
Miami can still get in also... but they need a ton of help.
There's already controversy... cuz Miami is currently sitting below Notre Dame in the AP Polls. If Miami wins this game and goes 10-2, are they gonna leave em out of the playoffs and put Notre Dame in? A team that they BEAT?
So can we trust Miami to move the ball against this Pittsburgh defense? Running the ball is gonna be a challenge. Pitt has one of the best run defenses in the country. This Miami offense is getting their RB1 and WR2 back though. Mark Fletcher Jr. is back (only missed 1 1/2 games). CJ Daniels is back also. He hasn't played in over a month. Pitt's got their main 2 guys back also though. LBs Rasheem Biles and Kyle Louis were both injured and have both been back. DT Sean FitzSimmons is most likely gonna miss his 2nd game though.
Pitt's got a great pass rush and Carson Beck has struggled with pressure this year. He does tend to get the ball out quickly though.
We actually need to give Carson Beck some credit. He took a lot of criticism for the Louisville game. He took a lot of criticism for the SMU game. But since then, he's played 3 excellent games in a row.
Now Pitt is the toughest defense he's seen in a while and it is supposed to be a bit on the cold side. So maybe this is the game he comes crashing back down to earth, maybe it's not. Pitt's run defense is elite... but they have shown you can throw the ball on em.
On the other side of the ball, this is where Pitt's in trouble. Miami's got one of the best defenses in the country. I believe Desmond Reid is expected to miss another game.
Miami's pass rush is Heintschel's worst nightmare. This is one of the best pass rushes in the country against a Freshman QB. He's struggled with pressure so far this year and he tends to hold onto the football. They're also healthier. DT David Blay Jr. is expected to return after missing two games. CB OJ Frederique Jr. is expected to return after missing 4 games. S Jakobe Thomas left last week's game after 13 snaps. He's returned to practice and will be good to go.
And when it comes to this Pitt offense, I gotta ask... how many good defenses have they seen recently? The only strong defense they've seen is Notre Dame and they got completely routed in that game.
I make this game 7. I am considering taking Miami at 6.5. If Beck doesn't turn the ball over, I think Miami could win comfortably.
WESTERN KENTUCKY @ JACKSONVILLE STATE - 2 PM
Winner goes to the CUSA Championship game. Loser needs Kennesaw State to lose to Liberty to get in.
These two teams might be playing in back to back weeks... which is exactly what happened last year.
So Since Rodney Tisdale has taken over at QB, the Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS. They're 3-1 S/U... they're only loss is a 13-10 loss at LSU.
The weird part is... the offense hasn't even looked great.
They're on the road against a Jacksonville State team that's perfect at home. Jacksonville State has won 10 consecutive home games.
Jacksonville State's defense isn't particularly good... but neither is Western Kentucky's offense. I'm sure Tyson Helton can scheme up a few scoring drives.
Interesting part of this matchup... Jacksonville State blitzes a lot. Rodney Tisdale... one of the best QBs in the country against the blitz so far this year.
On the other side of the ball, it comes down to one thing. Can Western Kentucky stop Cam Cook?
I'm gonna go with probably not. Jacksonville State's run game has been dominant in this building.
And if you look at Western Kentucky's defensive game logs, they've been ok against the run... but they really haven't seen one rushing offense.
You gotta go Jacksonville State here at a full 3.
LSU @ OKLAHOMA - 3:30 PM
Oklahoma playing for a playoff birth. If they win, they're gonna get in.
I kinda wanna take LSU here. I have no idea how they're gonna move the ball on Oklahoma's defense. R Mason Thomas won't be back for this game but this defense is so good and LSU's offense is so bad. Van Buren is starting at QB, which probably helps them cuz he can at least run for his life.
It's the other side of the ball... this is where I think LSU can really put up a fight here. LB Whit Weeks is finally back. Star CB Mansoor Delane is back. And Oklahoma's C Jake Maikkula is out for this game. He's one of the 2 offensive linemen that have been healthy all year. This is already an offensive line that's dealing with injuries (starting LG).
I wanna take LSU +11.
TROY @ SOUTHERN MISS - 3:30 PM
What a game. Sub Belt Championship game semi-final.
Troy should really struggle to move the ball in this one. Tucker Kilcrease may not play.
Troy has zero run game whatsoever... and Goose Crowder looked terrible when he came in during the Old Dominion game. He bounced back against Georgia State but Idk if I trust him in another road start against a much better defense.
Now I gotta say... Southern Miss' defense has looked bad the last two games. In the 4 games before that, they were great.
On the other side of the ball, this is where Troy can compete in this game. Braylon Braxton is back, and we did see some explosive plays against South Alabama, but the efficiency wasn't really there.
I'd probably go under if I was forced to bet this game.
WYOMING @ HAWAII - 11 PM
Neither team is playing for anything in terms of the postseason. Paniolo Trophy. Senior night.
This Wyoming offense has been the worst in the country over the last 3 weeks.
They just lost a home game to Nevada... on Senior Day. And they just lost their leading WR Chris Durr Jr. and their leading rusher RB Samuel Harris. They're already missing RB Terron Kellman (most likely won't be back).
Sawvel called the offense abysmal... considering giving the Freshman QB extended snaps in this game.
Hawaii's defense has had their ups and downs... but it's been solid at home in this building. LB Jamih Otis is out for the season. One of their main CBs is also questionable Edwards II.
The only reason Hawaii isn't laying 20 in this game is on the other side of the ball. Wyoming has played solid defense this year.
I know Alejado didn't look great in the UNLV game... but if you look at his body of work in the 2nd half of the season since he got healthy, he's been pretty electric. WR Jackson Harris has 713 yards and 10 TDs in these last 6 games.
We don't wanna just sleep on Wyoming's secondary. They haven't even generated a ton of pressure and they're still not getting thrown on. Slightly different environment and step up in competition though.
If Hawaii doesn't turn the ball over, this should be a comfortable victory.
ALABAMA @ AUBURN - 7:30 PM
So Alabama's had the upperhand in these Iron Bowls, but it hasn't always been easy. Auburn's played them tough plenty of times.
Specifically their trips to Jordan-Hare have been tougher. It's been a long time since Alabama has covered the number on the road here. The last time Alabama covered a spread @ Auburn? Derrick Henry ran for 271 yards.
Obviously, this is a big game for Alabama. A win clinches them a spot in the SEC Championship game. They need that... because remember, they took a loss in the opener to Florida State. So a loss here most likely eliminates them from CFB Playoff discussions.
Now as far as this matchup, Alabama's offense is gonna be one dimensional. Nobody's been able to run the ball on Auburn's defense all season. AUB EDGE Keldric Faulk (team captain) left injured last week but he's completely ready to go. DJ Durkin is the interim HC (was DC).
Auburn has been thrown on a few times this year, but all those games were on the road. Nobody's been able to do much offensively on the road in Jordan-Hare this year... not even Georgia.
It's also gonna be cold and a little windy. Alabama should be able to throw the ball on Auburn's defense... but this environment is gonna be nuts. I think they struggle to move the ball.
On the other side of the ball, Auburn is completely outmatched. Alabama just got LB Qua Russow back last week. He hadn't played since September. Auburn's offense has had problems all year.
It looks like Ashton Daniels is gonna start at QB for Auburn, which makes sense considering he started in Week 11 and it was Auburn's best offensive game of the year. He threw for 353 yards in the game.
I think Auburn can run the ball in this game. Alabama has tightened up the run defense recently... but they played South Carolina, LSU and Oklahoma. SCAR was the only road game. If you rewind back to when Alabama saw some tougher offensive lines, they were struggling against the run. Auburn has one of the best offensive lines in the country, (although they're missing C Connor Lew).
