CFB Week 14 Friday
- Kyle Kirms
- 13 minutes ago
- 9 min read
OHIO @ BUFFALO - 12 PM
RAIN & WIND
Ohio's still alive in the MAC Championship race. They need to win and they need some help. Currently, Toledo and Central Michigan have the tiebreakers over them but if it comes to strength of schedule between the 3 of them, I believe they make it.
But this win won't be easy... because we're talking about Ohio on the road.
Another concern for Ohio is Parker Navarro. He hasn't quite looked himself the last few games. Now in the UMass game, they ran for over 360 yards so they didn't need to pass. But it's been a while since we've seen Parker Navarro have a good game throwing the football.
He needs to get it together immediately... because not only is he on the road, where he's played worse... but the run might not be there. The strength of this Buffalo team has been defending the run. Where they're a bit vulnerable is in the secondary.
Buffalo got LB Dion Crawford back from injury last week, (2nd leading tackler). Nobody's run the ball on this team.
Remember, the final score of last week's game is extremely misleading. Buffalo was the stronger team for a lot of this game. They lost the turnover battle 0-3.
On the other side of the ball, this is where Buffalo has had problems. This was supposed to be a strong rushing attack this year and it just hasn't been. In fact, Al-Jay Henderson doesn't even to be getting the bulk of the carries anymore.
I will say... Buffalo's played 3 tough games in a row in terms of the defenses they've seen. Ohio's defense isn't anything crazy. This might actually be a step down in competition.
And this Ohio defense is dealing with injuries right now. LB (was leading tackler) Michael Molnar might miss 4th straight game. CB Michael Mack II missed the UMass game and is listed as questionable.
I'm on Buffalo +7. I'd make this game 5.5. Buffalo needs to win for Bowl Eligibility so it's not a meaningless game at all.
OLE MISS @ MISSISSIPPI STATE - 12 PM
Lane Kiffin saga. Apparently he visited both Florida and LSU in the last week. Ole Miss looking to clinch a CFB Playoff and possibly the SEC Championship game. They need to win and they need BOTH Texas A&M and Alabama to lose. MISS STATE 5-6 PLAYING FOR BOWL ELIGIBILITY.
The Egg Bowl has gone back and forth.
But they've done well in Starkville. Senior Day for Miss State.
On paper, Ole Miss should have zero problems scoring points on Mississippi State's defense. Remember, Mississippi State is most likely still without S Isaac Smith. He got injured in the Georgia game. That's arguably the best player on their defense.
Ole Miss doesn't have the strongest rushing attack... but it seems like anybody can run the ball on this defense. So Chambliss should have run support.
Chambliss should also have plenty of room to work. Mississippi State hasn't shown much of a pass rush. Football games aren't played on paper. We're talking about a huge rivalry game in Starkville. Cowbells are gonna be going nuts. But on paper, Ole Miss should cover 40+ points in this game. Chambliss beat Oklahoma in Norman and played Georgia down to the wire in Athens.
The question's gonna be on the other side of the ball. Can Ole Miss make stops? No word on who will start at QB (Shapen will start if healthy). WR1 Brenen Thompson is listed as questionable. RB Fluff Bothwell is good to go.
Mississippi State definitely has a dangerous offense. It hasn't looked nearly as good since they've gotten into conference play, but the Ole Miss defense isn't elite.
I think 7 is the correct number here. Some people got in on Miss State at +9.5. I was considering Ole Miss at -6.5. I'd need -5.5 to play Ole Miss ... 10+ to play Miss State. I don't think either are realistic.
IOWA @ NEBRASKA - 12 PM
Iowa has dominated this series, but hasn't always covered the number.
They've been especially dominant in Lincoln. They've actually won 6 in a row.
This rivalry is called the Heroes Game and they play for the Heroes Trophy. Iowa has beaten Nebraska 13-10 in back to back seasons. The same exact score.
My first through with this game was "Iowa's gonna hand the ball off and there's not a damn thing Nebraska can do to stop it".
Definitely a bit concerning to see Iowa struggled running the ball against Michigan State. I don't want to let one game sway my opinion though.
I don't care. I still think Iowa steamrolls this defense on the ground. Nebraska hasn't been able to stop anybody from running on them.
On the other side of the ball, we've got Iowa's defense against a true Freshman QB TJ Lateef.
Lateef did play well in his 1st start. It was against a terrible UCLA defense. Last week, he actually saw a good defense in Penn State and that offense did literally nothing. Iowa might be missing CB1 TJ Hall. He's listed as questionable. Not sure if I trust Lateef to exploit a missing corner on this defense though.
I'm on Iowa at -4.5.
UTAH @ KANSAS - 12 PM
Utah coming off what might have been the wildest football game of the year. There was speculation that this might have been Kyle Whittingham's final home game at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Remember, he was considering retiring after last season, so this might be it for Whittingham. Legendary head coach, 2nd longest active tenure (since 2005 at Utah).
You'd think Utah's offense can score on Kansas defense. But Utah might be missing LT Spencer Fano. He left the Kansas State game injured and is questionable. He was a Freshman All-American and an Outland Trophy finalist (best lineman in College Football). Utah's leading WR by far is Ryan Davis. He also left the Kansas State game injured and is questionable.
The Kansas defense has not been good... but they've actually done a solid job against the run recently. Where they've struggled is against the pass. Utah's actually been inefficient throwing the ball.
On the other side, more injury news. UTAH Star EDGE John Henry Daley out for the season. He's one of the best players on the team (11.5 sacks is 2nd most in the country). He had 2 sacks and 3.5 TFLs in just 15 snaps before getting injured in the Kansas State game.
This Utah defense is vulnerable to the run. We've seen them get run on several times this year. And Kansas has a very efficient rushing attack.
This is a Kansas team that's coming off back to back road losses. In fact, they should have won the Arizona game. They're coming back home for Senior Day. They've been much better at home this year. They're 5-6, playing for Bowl Eligibility.
I think we've got a good chance of seeing Kansas' best fastball. I make this game 10. I'd len Kansas at +12.5. Unfortunately, I missed the 13.5's.
AIR FORCE @ COLORADO STATE - 3 PM
This graphics makes it seem like Air Force is gonna go nuts on Colorado State's defense.
But we got a glimpse of this Air Force offense without Szarka... it wasn't pretty.
This Colorado State defense has been significantly better in Fort Collins. UNLV lit them up last home game but they've been solid defensively in this building.
The problem with Colorado State is the injuries. They've had 24 different defensive players start a game this year... and the injuries really seem to be catching up to them. All 3 of these offenses might be better than Air Force without Szarka though.
On the other side of the ball, Colorado State's offense is an absolute mess. QB Darius Curry and RG Liam Wortmann are both suspended for this game due to a spitting incident.
I took under 46.5.
GEORGIA @ GEORGIA TECH - 3:30 PM
So it's been a while since Georgia lost this game.
But they have gotten close. In fact, most people who watched last year's game would say Georgia Tech deserved to win.
So good news for Georgia is some of the guys who sat out last week against Charlotte are gonna play. RB Chauncey Bowens should be good to go. C Drew Bobo and RT Earnest Greene are both cleared to play. The only player on the offense that isn't coming back is WR Colbie Young. He hasn't played in over a month and remains out. Georgia Tech NB Jy Gilmore was carted off in the Pitt game and is out for the season.
This Georgia Tech defense is just in a freefall. They've gotten completely lit up in 3 consecutive games. In a dome, against Georgia's offense, I don't see how they're able to make stops in this game.
Georgia's hanging 36/game on SEC defenses.
So the question is... can Georgia Tech's offense keep up? It's a tough question to answer. On paper, the answer is yes... but you to take into consideration that Georgia Tech's numbers are against an ACC schedule and Georgia's numbers are against an SEC schedule.
We also have to consider that Georgia has really tightened up on the defensive side of the ball. We saw them struggle against Tennessee and Alabama early in the season and it was like "alright Georgia's defense might be a liability". They've been really strong defensively since then. As far as injuries, there might be some good news for Georgia. DT Jordan Hall is still out. He got injured in the 1st quarter against Florida. But there's a chance Georgia is getting DB Kyron Jones back. He's been out for 6 weeks. They also might be getting LB CJ Allen back. He's the team's leading tackler.
But we can't sleep on this Georgia Tech offense. Before that Pitt game, they had been on a rampage. Pitt's got an elite run defense, (similar to Georgia). I just don't know if we want to let one game trick us into thinking Georgia Tech's offense isn't powerful.
I was trying to find a Haynes King comp... and I think the closest thing to Haynes King that Georgia's seen so far this year is Jackson Arnold. They didn't have problems against that offense at all. Kiby Smart also has a ton of familiarity with this offense. GA Tech OC Buster Faulkner was the QB coach and co-OC on Kirby Smart's staff in 2020-2022.
I don't hate an under. I know based on a lot of the numbers we just looked at, you'd think we're gonna see a lot of offense. But I think we're gonna see a lot of running the ball. Both teams are great on 3rd downs. We could see some long drives that chew up the clock. I guess I'd go Georgia Tech if I had to pick a side.
TEXAS A&M @ TEXAS - 7:30 PM
A&M looking to complete the 12-0 season as well as get their revenge from last year's game at Kyle Field.
So let's start with the Texas defense. Can they make stops in this game? Cuz the A&M offense is a wagon. Anthony Hill Jr. is questionable. Texas is gonna need him back because LB Ty'Anthony Smith is suspended in the 1st half for targeting. Le'Veon Moss will most likely not be back for A&M.
Texas' defensive front is elite. They're great against the run. They're capable of generating pressure with the front 4. But Texas A&M should be able to match that. They have arguably the best offensive line in the country and Marcel Reed is truly one of the best QBs in the country handling pressure.
And as far as A&M's offense in a harsh road environment, well that hasn't been a problem this year.
On the other side of the ball, this is where A&M has the advantage. Although we do have to mention that Texas has been significantly better offensively the last few games.
Texas hasn't been able to run the ball all season.
Texas A&M's defense has just lives in the backfield. It's as disruptive as any defense in College Football. Where they've been vulnerable is giving up big plays.
It's gonna be tough for some of these deep routes to develop though. Because A&M has one of the best pass rushes in College Football.
Despite playing an SEC schedule, Arch Manning has only played 4 games this year against good defenses. He was under a TON of pressure in those games and he didn't play that well.
I grabbed a 2.5 thinking this would close at 3. As of right now, it seems to be coming the other way.
ARIZONA @ ARIZONA STATE - 9 PM
Arizona State has had the Wildcats number in this rivalry. First time since 2014 that both teams have winning records in this matchup. Both are 8-3.
It's been even worse on the road in Tempe. But... they won their last trip. 2023, they actually routed Arizona State. 59-23. Fifita threw for 527 yards and McMillan had 266 yards receiving.
Arizona had a hell of a 2nd half last week. 27-0 in the 2nd half.
Arizona State is coming off a big win themselves. In fact, Arizona State is still mathematically in the Big 12 Championship race. I'm not 100% sure the implications. They have a tie-breaker over Texas Tech, but they lost to Utah.
I kinda like this matchup for Arizona State. Arizona's got offensive line issues. RT Tristan Bounds missed the Baylor game and is questionable. RG Alexander Doost left the Baylor game injured and is listed as questionable.
Arizona State has been rock solid defensively all year. They got completely cooked on the road against Utah. Other than that, teams have really struggled to move the ball on this defense.
And specifically in Tempe? They've been great on this side of the ball and they've seen some decent offenses too.
And on the other side of the ball, what's Arizona's strength? The secondary. They've got one of the best secondaries in the country. Here's the problem... with Jeff Sims at QB, all Arizona State is gonna do is run the ball. Arizona LB Max Harris (4th leading tackler) left the Baylor game injured and it's looking like he's gonna miss this one.
Arizona can't stop the run. They are really struggling to get off the field. Arizona State should be able to string together long, annoying drives on the ground in this game.
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