CFB Week 13 Saturday
- Kyle Kirms
- 6 days ago
- 21 min read
TULSA @ ARMY - 12 PM
Army's been a wagon on Senior Day.
If this was the old Tulsa, this would be a good matchup for em. Army's secondary is vulnerable... they struggle in coverage.
Tulsa's been running the ball a lot recently... which is not what we were told to expect coming into the season.
Not that the run game's been bad... it's been alright I guess. But that's playing into the strength of this Army defense.
Not that running the ball on Army's defense is impossible... it just happens to be the strength of their defense. Starting S and 4th leading tackler S Casey Larkin got injured in their last game and is listed as questionable. DT Jacob Tuioti has been out since Week 8 and is questionable. CB Justin Weaver has been out since Week 7 and is questionable.
On the other side, we're talking about Army... we know what to expect.
Tulsa's been strong against the run recently but on the road against Army, it's tough to see Tulsa stopping that triple option.
I think 10 is too many but I fully expect Army to control this game start to finish. If I was to bet this game, it would be under 45.5.
MISSOURI @ OKLAHOMA - 12 PM
Oklahoma looking for revenge from what was a wild game last year. The score of this game was 10-9 with 8 minutes to go. Now they go to Norman.. a place where Missouri hasn't won a football game since 1966.
I know Missouri's offense looked pretty good last week... let's not get it twisted. That was a home game against Mississippi State... one of the worst run defenses in the SEC.
Now they're going on the road to Norman. This is the best defense in the SEC... and it's between Oklahoma and Ohio State as far as who's the best defense in the country.
Remember... Missouri couldn't do anything on the road against Auburn. 6 of their points came in overtime. And this was with Beau Pribula at QB!
Missouri's got one of the best RB's in the country in Ahmad Hardy... but are we really expecting Missouri to go into Norman and run the ball on this defensive front? Hardy had 300 yards rushing against Miss State... that's not gonna happen here.
Keep in mind... Missouri poses no threat through the air right now. They're rocking with a 3rd string QB who's also a true Freshman. I don't know how Missouri gets a first down in this game. TE Brett Norfleet returned from injury last week... so I supposed that's something. We dk the status of EDGE R Mason Thomas... but he didn't play in the Alabama game either.
On the other side of the ball, this is where Missouri can compete. This defense is excellent... and Oklahoma's offense has been better... but it's still not an elite offense.
Mateer hasn't thrown the ball well since coming back from injury.
They have done a better job running the football... but it wasn't there against Alabama. It wasn't there against Texas... and I'm not sure if it'll be there against Missouri.
Mateer's strongest passing splits on the year are against the blitz. Missouri doesn't blitz much. They're able to generate pressure with their front 4. I'm sure Mateer's able to move the chains with his athleticism here and there... but this should be a really tough matchup for Oklahoma's offense.
I went with under 43.5.
LOUISVILLE @ SMU - 12 PM
Well that'll do it for Louisville. 7 4th quarter penalties and two missed FGs.
Now they're in a position to try and play spoiler... cuz SMU is most definitely still in the race.
This is gonna be a tough matchup for Louisville though. There's still no Isaac Brown and this is an offense that has to run the ball. If they're gonna rely on Miller Moss dropping back to pass, they're really gonna struggle to win this one. SMU has snagged 16 interceptions this year.
SMU's got some injuries in the secondary (although there's hope that they may be getting a couple of those guys back after the bye)... but they've been rock solid up front. Now they haven't played the strongest rushing attacks... but at home, coming off a bye week, with a trip to the ACC Championship game on the line. This team should be pretty fired up for this game.
On the other side of the ball, Louisville's defense is no joke. They got LB Stanquan Clark back last week also... he had been out since September.
But SMU might be equipped to put points up. Louisville's got an elite pass rush... they blitz a lot. Kevin Jennings is a crazy athlete and thrives in chaos. He's one of the most efficient throwers in college football under pressure and against the blitz. He was also dealing with a leg injury earlier in the season... bye week gives him a chance to get healthier.
I don't like this matchup for Louisville and I also don't like the spot. This team kind of lost their identity. We might even see them mix in other QBs. Their kicker can't hit anything. Their season just got ruined. SMU is coming off the bye week completely optimistic. Also... SMU usually handles their business this time of year.
I'm on SMU at -1.5.
KANSAS @ IOWA STATE - 12 PM
Iowa State deserves a lot of credit for that TCU win. They went on the road and just bullied TCU in the worst spot ever. They were on a 4 game losing streak, going into TCU against a team coming off a bye week.
Kansas is coming off a heartbreaker. They had the ball up 20-17. Just over 2 minutes left. They had 4th and 2 on the 13 yard like, they lineup to kick a 30 yard FG, miss... then Arizona goes 80 yards in 90 seconds to score a game winning TD. Brutal.
But we can't let that distract us from the fact that Iowa State's secondary is still smoked. S Jamison Patton is "questionable at best"... if he doesn't play, that means Iowa State is missing their top two corners and top two safeties. Kansas RB Daniel Hinshaw Hr. is questionable but their other RB Leshon Williams is back from injury and ready to roll.
This is a truly a buy-low on Kansas' offense. They played TTU, KSU and ARIZ in 3 of their last 4 games. Jalon Daniels was lighting it up earlier in the season when he saw lesser defense. Coming off a bye week, I expect Kansas to score points in this game.
Iowa State has struggled to generate pressure all year and Jalon Daniels has been very efficient from a clean pocket all year.
On the other side, I'm not really loving the Iowa State offense right now. One of their two TEs, Gabe Burkle is out. Rocco Becht's playing through and injury right now and hasn't looked that sharp... but the Kansas defense has struggled all season.
Kansas has been consistently bad on the defensive side of the ball. They played one good game... it was against UCF when Tayven Jackson got hurt and Cam Fancher was playing QB. Kansas secondary has just 2 INTs in the last 9 games.
Kansas has been consistently bad on the defensive side of the ball. They played one good game... it was against UCF when Tayven Jackson got hurt and Cam Fancher was playing QB.
MINNESOTA @ NORTHWESTERN - 12 PM
This woulda been a huge win for Northwestern.
So we can't count on Minnesota to move the ball... ever. That being said, the strength of the offense is Darius Taylor and Northwestern's struggled against the run since losing their main LB Yanni Karlaftis. So maybe there's a path to Minnesota running the ball in this one. NW EDGE Aidan Hubbard left the Michigan game in the 1st quarter and is questionable. Another EDGE Richie Hagarty is most likely missing his 3rd straight game.
It's difficult to see them putting up a big number. This offense has been bad... but they will probably be able to run the ball a little in this game.
And on the other side of the ball, Northwestern's run game has been excellent. Komolafe has been great. But the strength of this Minnesota team has been the defensive front. It's not great... but it is the strength of the team.
I know Minnesota's terrible.. I'm just not thrilled with the idea of laying more than a FG in this matchup. Minnesota's had success against Northwestern... and this dates back to the Fitzgerald era.
I know there's concerns about Minnesota playing a road. They're 0-4 in road games this year and they've basically gotten their ass beat every single game. 3 of those games were against Iowa, Ohio State and Oregon and the 4th was early in the season on the other side of the country. This is, by far, Minnesota's most winnable road game.
Northwestern's the much better team here... but PJ Fleck will have that defense ready to bounce back after Oregon. I bet Minnesota can move the chains and play the field position game. I just think this is a field goal game. So Minnesota +4 would be the move for me.
CHARLOTTE @ GEORGIA - 12:45 PM
I'm not sure what Tim Albin's gonna draw up here to get Charlotte in the endzone. This Georgia defense is definitely very injured right now though. Not that it matters against Charlotte. But S Kyron Jones is gonna miss another game. DT Jordan Hall is gonna miss another game. And they just lost LB CJ Allen in the Texas game. He's the leading tackler.
Charlotte can't compete on the other side of the ball either. Not even close... and they're way more injured than Georgia is. Tim Albin said that Charlotte has "an injury list that would make a CVS receipt blush".
So why did I bet Charlotte? Well, Georgia has a history of not taking these games very seriously. Here's the last 3 years.
I'm on Charlotte +45.5.
BAYLOR @ ARIZONA - 1 PM
When Arizona lost that heartbreaker to Houston, it ended their hopes of playing in the Big 12 Championship... but they've been silently playing great football since... back to back come from behind wins. They were down at half in the last two.
This Arizona defense is gonna be a tough matchup for Baylor. Baylor is a pass-first offense and nobody's been able to throw the ball on Arizona's secondary.
Arizona just played Kansas and Cincinnati... two extremely explosive offenses. Look at the passing numbers. This might be the best secondary in the Big 12.
The way to give Arizona's defense problems has been on the ground. Baylor has a star RB in Bryson Washington but the run game's been inconsistent. They should be able to run the ball in this game... but it's not typically what we've seen Baylor try to do offensively. ARIZ DT Tia Savea missed Cincinnati game. Listed as questionable.
Baylor wants to drop Robertson back to pass and make big plays. Arizona's been great at limiting explosives.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona hasn't been quite as reliable. They're playing Baylor's defense... so you'd think it should be a solid matchup for em.
The weird part... Baylor hasn't been thrown on much the last few games. Utah and Cincinnati didn't throw the ball much because there was no need to.
Makes this matchup weird... Arizona can run the ball... but nothing like Cincinnati and Utah can.
You would think... Baylor hasn't shown much of a pass rush. You would think... Fifita with clean pockets to throw from... Arizona should move the ball just fine. ARIZ RT Tristan Bounds got injured in the Cincinnati game. Unsure of status.
But Baylor has limited the explosives like Arizona has. That's the one thing Baylor's done well defensively is keep from getting cooked by huge plays.
I can't look myself in the mirror and bet an under in this game... but I kinda like the under.
I can't believe I'm saying this... but under 62.5.
NEVADA @ WYOMING - 2 PM
Where on earth did this come from? Nevada looking to grab back to back wins, which is something Choate hasn't been able to do since getting the Nevada job.
Nevada's offense deserves some credit... and maybe they've figured some things out. RG Zach Cochnauer returned from injury last week against SJSU. But does that one game erase the rest of the season?
Keep in mind... the Wyoming defense is very strong and they're always better at home in Laramie. (Nevada has never won here. Just two trips). Senior Day and they have a sellout crowd for Josh Allen's jersey retirement. "Everybody in the state of Wyoming will be there" - Choate.
Wyoming's defense has been excellent. They might even be getting DT Aneesh Vyas back from injury. He's been out since Week 8.
Nevada should really struggle to move the ball in this game. The question is... can we count on Wyoming to score? Cuz we're talking about covering a big number... we're gonna need points and the Wyoming offense looks bad.
Nevada's defense has been alright. I would imagine they're more than capable of giving Wyoming's offense problems.
Wyoming's offense... we thought there was a spark when they changed playcallers. The spark disappeared.
I think Wyoming wins this comfortably. Nevada's terrible. But 6.5 with a team that I don't trust to move the ball? I'll say under 40.5.
MISSOURI STATE @ KENNESAW STATE - 2 PM
Kennesaw State's 7 game win streak comes to an end but it was bound to happen. This team was playing with fire. In fact, they very easily coulda lost 3 in a row. New Mexico State missed a game tying FG with 32 seconds left.
Kennesaw State's still very much alive in the race for a conference championship.
That explosive Kennesaw offense hasn't looked nearly as explosive recently.
So I know you look at these season-long graphics and think Kennesaw's offense is just gonna go off on Missouri State. I wouldn't be so sure about that.
Missouri State's defensive numbers are dramatically skewed by two early games against USC and SMU. This Kennesaw offense just lost its top WR Gabriel Benyard for the season. He leads the team in everything... receptions, yards, TDs. Their WR3 Lyndon Ravare also left the JSU game injured and is questionable. There's also a QB situation now... Amari Odom got benched last week after throwing 3 INTs and it's uncertain who's playing QB.
The battle on this side of the ball is right here. With the turnovers and the uncertainty at QB, we know Kennesaw State's gonna run the ball. Kennesaw State has the bigger offensive line. Missouri State has held their own against the run though and HC Ryan Beard has made it clear that stopping the run is their number 1 priority this week.
On the other side of the ball, I'm really not sure what I think about this matchup.
Jacob Clark looks pretty good since returning from injury.
Kennesaw got lit up by Jacksonville State after playing back to back elite defensive games. Missouri State's offense is definitely better than UTEP and New Mexico State.
I don't think this number should be 6.5. Kennesaw's offense hasn't looked as explosive and I think we should be looking at a 4/4.5 instead. Gimme Missouri State at this number.
UCONN @ FAU - 3 PM
UConn can't just sleep on FAU. Kittley's got this team trending upwards. They're just 1-2 in their last 3 games and they managed to be somewhat competitive in two tough road games.
UConn's coming off a nice win over Air Force... final score is a bit misleading. Air Force looked like the much better team early in the game before Szarka got injured. If he doesn't get hurt, I would imagine this game comes down to the wire. Regardless, UConn is now 8-3... if they win this game, they'll log back to back 9 win seasons for the first time in program history.
This might be a really nice matchup for UConn though. UConn has one glaring weakness... they can't stay on the LOS defensively. The reason I'm mentioning this... FAU is 3rd in passing frequency. This is not a downhill physical run game. Caden Veltkamp is also dealing with a shoulder injury. He's playing through it but apparently, he's not 100% right now.
UConn can defend the pass. They blitz a lot... Veltkamp gets the ball out quickly and has actually handled the blitz well... but are they able to keep him from taking sacks? UConn has 35 sacks this season which is top 10 in the country.
UConn struggles against physical offenses that'll take 4 or 5 yards... dominate the LOS and string together long drives. They've been great at limiting explosive plays, which is exactly what FAU relies on. And on the other side of the ball, I can't imagine FAU's ass defense can stop UConn in any fashion.
I know this graphic makes it look like FAU's defense is solid against the pass. It isn't. UConn should be able to do whatever they want offensively in this game. RB Mel Brown is set to return after not playing since Week 3. He had 159 yards rushing in the first 3 games and has been injured since.
UConn should score a lot of points in this game. I would roll with them at anything below 7. Also over 64.5 if the weather's fine.
DUKE @ NORTH CAROLINA - 3:30 PM
Both of these are coming off tough losses. The Duke loss is for more embarrassing though. They got absolutely dominated by Virginia. The UNC Wake game was pretty even. There were a couple crazy plays that made it look like Wake dominated that game but they really didn't. Duke got actually smoked.
If this was 2 weeks ago, I'd say "I don't care how good UNC's defense has been. Duke can score on anybody".
But after seeing what happened last week, I really don't know anymore. Now you shouldn't overreact to one performance. But this team got dominated at home. And in addition to getting dominated, their season is now over. This team was in the running for the ACC Championship game... it's over now.
North Carolina's defense has been rock solid. They're also getting CB Thad Dixon back after missing 5 games.
They're also getting CB Thad Dixon back after missing 5 games.
Duke's defense has been getting repeatedly smoked. I gave them the benefit of the doubt because they'd seen tough competition. But Virginia's offense hasn't looked good in over a month. They're also injured as hell. LB Nick Morris and Elliot Schaper are out for the season. CB Moussa Kame and Kimari Robinson have missed the last few weeks and it doesn't look like they'll be back. S Terry Moore still hasn't played and I doubt he'll be back.
The only strength of this Duke defense is the defensive line... but the only strength of the North Carolina offense is the offensive line... and actually escaping pressure and delivering throws has been pretty much the only thing Gio Lopez has done consistently well this year.
This is a tough one... cuz Duke has been so much better than North Carolina this year. But there's just so many things trending in opposite directions here. Duke's season just ended, the injuries. This is a team that might be teetering on "done" while UNC is playing their best football of the year and still somehow bowl eligible. I'll take UNC at a full 7.
ECU @ UTSA - 3:30 PM
Well we know what the deal is with UTSA. We're in the Alamodome. This offense just works better in this dome. UTSA has won 24 consecutive conference games in this building.
ECU's defense is official, but this offense is so good in this building, that I think we can count on em to score like they always do.
Especially considering ECU's defense has struggled giving up big plays... and that's exactly what UTSA does in this building.
We know ECU's offense is gonna score back because UTSA's defense also gives up huge plays.
One thing we know we can count on is ECU's gonna be moving at a million MPH.
ECU has been scoring 40+ regularly. WR Yannick Smith might not play. He's a deep threat and leads ECU in TD passes. He left the Memphis game injured.
How is this not a blind over?
USC @ OREGON - 3:30 PM
I know there's a concern about USC being on the road. The offense hasn't been quite as potent away from SoCal. But this is not the same as a typical road game for USC. This isn't a cross country Big Ten game. This is a Pac 10 game.
Now, that's not to say that USC hasn't struggled with the Ducks. They have.
But this is not a team that's gonna be intimidated by Eugene.
The battle is right here. Oregon's defense is elite. But this USC offense is about as good as it gets.
The only offense Oregon's seen this year that's on USC's level is Indiana. Oregon lost that game outright... at home.
Now Indiana's offense didn't go nuts in that game or anything... but 45.6% success rate? Oregon was struggling to get Mendoza off the field.
Now Oregon's defense has been absolutely lights out since that Indiana game... but they haven't seen the most explosive offenses in the world.
Now some bad news for USC's offense. LT Elijah Paige got injured in the Iowa game and was seen in a knee brace. He hasn't been ruled out yet but it doesn't look great. Now he was injured earlier in the season also... so they've already played several games without him. But he is the starting LT.
I still think Maiava's gonna score in this game. We saw USC go into South Bend and play a Notre Dame defense that looks insane right now. It wasn't an amazing game... but he threw for 328 yards and USC was competitive in that game. It was 27-24 in the 4th quarter when USC gave Notre Dame a TD with a fumble.
Now on the other side of the ball, I'm not sure how USC plans on stopping Oregon on the ground. There's injury concerns too. Both starting safeties for USC left the Iowa game injured. I think Bishop Fitzgerald is gonna play... as far as Kamari Ramsey, I'm not sure. He's listed as questionable.
But remember... Oregon's passing attack is limited right now. Evan Stewart still hasn't played this year. Dakorien Moore is most likely gonna miss another game. Gary Bryant Jr. might miss another game. TE Kenyon Sadiq came back from injury which is huge... but Oregon's missing their top 3 WRs right now. RT Alex Harkey came back for the Minnesota game which helps in pass protection though.
Now I really don't know how USC's gonna stop the Ducks on the ground. Whittington and Davison look unstoppable and that's what USC has struggled with.
Remember... USC's still in this. They may have 2 losses... but only 1 conference loss. Loser of this game is out of contention.
Oregon's had a bit of a cakewalk since the Indiana game.
I'm on USC at 10.5. I wouldn't bet it in single digits though.
KENTUCKY @ VANDERBILT - 3:30 PM
I'm not letting one good game against a Florida team that mighta completely quit trick me into thinking this Kentucky offense is a threat.
I don't even think the Vanderbilt defense is good, but this is not a Florida team that mighta quit. This is a Vanderbilt team that's still very much alive in the CFB Playoff race.
Cutter Boley played great against Florida... but he was under zero pressure. Vanderbilt is capable of generating pressure.
Vanderbilt's defense has looked shaky the last 2 games, but they were lights out when they played Missouri. That's a comparable game too... Zollers took over... Freshman QB without a ton of experience.
On the other side, Kentucky's defense has looked strong but the injuries are mounting up. Kentucky defense is injured. UK S Jordan Lovett (5th leading tackler) is out for the season. LB Alex Afari Jr. (3rd leading tackler) is listed as questionable. Starting CB Terhyon Nichols might miss his 3rd straight game. Starting DT Kahlil Saunders left the Tenn Tech game injured and is questionable.
On the other side, we should see Vanderbilt's offense get back on track.
I'm on Vanderbilt at -7.5.
ARKANSAS @ TEXAS - 3:30 PM
Arkansas has lost 8 football games in a row. Wanna know how many of those losses were by double digits? 1. According to Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, Arkansas is the unluckiest team in the FBS by far. They should have 3.62 more wins than they have. The next closest is Oregon State at 2.59.
This side of the football is the marquee matchup. Arkansas' offense against Texas defense. Texas is most likely gonna be missing LB Anthony Hill Jr. That's one of the best players on the team and leading tackler this year.
I cuz this Texas defense some slack last week before the Georgia game. I talked about how they didn't have their S and one of their main defensive pieces in Michael Taaffe and he was coming back to play Georgia. Well it didn't seem to help... and now they lost Anthony Hill Jr. I think it's safe to say we should be a bit worried about this defense.
On the other side of the ball, you might be thinking "Kyle who cares? Arkansas' defense is awful"... and that's what the full season numbers show.
Don't look now... but Arkansas started playing some defense. Remember... they played 5 games in a row against the best offenses in the country. Now that they're starting to see some lesser offenses, we're seeing the defense actually look decent.
And it's not like Texas has some over-bearing explosive offense. Now there were alotta dropped passes last week against Georgia. I'm sure they'll look better in this one. But this isn't exactly an offense that terrifies me.
I'm on Arkansas at 10.5.
TULANE @ TEMPLE - 3:45 PM
We've seen the tale of two seasons for this Tulane offense. Early in the year, they could only run the ball and Retzlaff couldn't throw it... now Retzlaff is going off. Outside of the multiple INTs at UTSA, he's been excellent.
It's tough to see Temple making stops in this game... but don't underestimate KC Keeler coming off a bye week. Two weeks to prepare for this one.
The last time we saw Temple play, they held their own defensively and they were missing a ton of starters in this game. DT Demerick Morris was out but he's on track to return for this one. LB Eric Stuart has missed the last two games. He's expected to return for this game. S Avery Powell (2nd leading tackler) has also been out. He's practicing and expected to return. EDGE Sekou Kromah missed last game and is questionable.
And on the other side of the ball, Tulane's defense hasn't even looked close to what we were expecting this year.
The Temple offense hasn't been the problem. With two weeks to prep, we should see them moving the ball.
This number's too big. I think Keeler can give em a game here. Give me Temple +9.5.
NEW MEXICO @ AIR FORCE - 7 PM
Final score's a bit misleading. UNM dominated this game. There were 8 turnovers.
Weather's supposed to be fine. I don't see any reason New Mexico can't throw the ball on Air Force in this game. Everyone else has. Jack Layne hasn't been the most consistent QB in the world, but when he has opportunities to make throws, he tends to make them.
The question is... can New Mexico's defense make stops against the Air Force offense. Kemper Hodges will be playing QB instead of Szarka. New Mexico got S Austin Brawley back last week. He had been out since Week 1. He had 2 INTs and was MWC DPOW.
Hodges drives: FG, Missed FG, Punt, Touchdown
New Mexico has been elite against the run this year and especially recently. Does that mean they're able to stop that FB power run game from Air Force.
We're just laying over a FG here now?
I really dk. I guess Air Force.
PITTSBURGH @ GEORGIA TECH - 7 PM
Georgia Tech coming off back to back awful road games.
And they better get it together... thanks to that NC State loss, if they drop this one, it's over. This is a Pitt team that's also sitting with 1 conference loss. This will be one of the biggest games in front of this crowd in a long time. This is virtually a ACC Championship semi-final for Georgia Tech.
That's the bad news... the good news is that now they come back home where they've been absolutely dominant.
And that's not just this year. That includes last year also. Georgia Tech hasn't lost a game in this building since 2023.
The matchup between Pitt's offense and Georgia Tech's defense is interesting one. Pitt's offense has been better since the QB switch, but Heinstchel seems to be coming back down to earth recently. And Georgia Tech got healthier. CB Ahmari Harvey is back after missing 3 games. DT Matthew Alexander is back after missing 2 games. Pitt should be getting Desmond Reid back as well though.
There's definitely some concerns here with Georgia Tech's defense. They needed to come home badly. I'm not suggesting that now that they're home, everything's fine. But this team has played so much better at home the last 2 years.
But I gotta say that I'm not sure how strong this Pittsburgh offense is right now. Heintschel took over at QB and they lit Boston College up... then they lit Florida State up. The last 4 games haven't been as impressive. They turned the ball over 4 times in their last road game against Stanford.
On the other side of the ball, this is a battle. Pitt's defense is a very tough matchup for Georgia Tech. This is an offense that needs to run the ball... and Pittsburgh has one of the best run defenses in the country. Not to mention, Kyle Louis and Rasheem Biles are both back from injury.
I'm just not sure if we can trust anybody to stop this offense at home. Georgia Tech's defense has concerns. The offense has been an absolute wagon. LG Harrison Moore is back from injury. He missed 3 games.
The run game's been absolutely dominant and Haynes King is playing the best football of his career right now. WR Malik Rutherford just came back from injury last week also.
This number should be 3. I'm on Georgia Tech at -2.5.
TENNESSEE @ FLORIDA - 7:30 PM
So will the streak come to an end? We all know the lore here. It's been a long time since Tennessee has won a football game at the swamp. 2003 was the last time we've seen this happen. They're honoring Urban Meyer at the game.
So Florida follows a 30 point loss to Kentucky up... by going toe to toe with Ole Miss in Oxford.
The final score of the Ole Miss game might be a bit misleading. Florida scored 21 points in the first 18 minutes of the game on 3 huge plays. From 6 minutes remaining in the 2nd quarter to the rest of the game, Florida scored 3 points.
So I still don't think this Florida offense is reliable, especially without 2 of their top 3 WRs. Dallas and Eugene Wilson are both done for the season. They're playing a Tennessee secondary that has struggled in coverage all year. Their top 2 corners Gibson and McCoy are both still out.
There will be opportunities for Lagway to make throws. Whether or not he makes them? That's a different question.
On the other side, the matchup looks great for Tennessee on paper. But this Florida defense is strong. I think they're getting DT Caleb Banks back as well. He returned to practice this week.
Believe it or not, Aguilar's only played 1 tough road game all season and he didn't play well. Tennessee got rolled in that game.
I can't believe I'm saying this... but I think Florida's defense shows out here. I'd take the +4 or go under 57.5. Defense dominates this game.
NORTH TEXAS @ RICE - 7:30 PM
Free beer, ice cream and and t-shirt? Senior Day.
Is Rice able to make stops against North Texas? Rice coming off the bye week?
The Rice defense has been decent. That Memphis game was a bit deceiving. Rice gifted them 3 touchdowns almost immediately in that game.
The North Texas offense has been an absolute wagon... but they've had a very favorable schedule. What's the toughest opponent here? UTSA away from the Alamodome?
They struggle with explosive plays and North Texas is the explosive play machine. S Daveon Hook is still out for Rice (since Week 10).
Can North Texas stop the option?
This will be the 3rd time North Texas has seen the option.
Rice +18.5.
BYU @ CINCINNATI - 8 PM
I have no idea what to do with this... is Cincinnati dead? It's Senior Day.
We knew BYU's defense was gonna be strong. That's not a surprise. Bear Bachmeier has been surprisingly good. He just lit TCU up. It's hard to imagine Cincinnati's defense stopping em. BYU LG Weylin Lapuaho left the TCU game injured.
I suppose you could say that even though LJ Martin's back from injury, the BYU run game hasn't looked as efficient recently. They've been more reliant on Bachmeier throwing the ball... which might not be as sustainable.
On the other side of the ball, who's gonna win this battle?
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