CFB Week 12 Wednesday
- Kyle Kirms
- 4 days ago
- 5 min read
NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ UMASS - 7 PM
Sam Houston State wins... which means UMass is the only team remaining in the country without a win... sitting at 0-9.
This might be a game between the two worst offenses in the country and yes, that includes Conference USA programs. These offenses are terrible.
I will say... Northern Illinois was showing signs of life. This offense looked absolutely terrible the entire season... then out of nowhere, they had a run game for two games. It disappeared quickly... because Toledo completely bullied em. But it was there for two games. "We came in and chose violence".
They should be able to run the ball here against UMass. Poor UMass just can't catch a break. The defensive front was finally getting it together. They had back to back games against run-first offenses and played well. Then... LB Timmy Hinspeter (leading tackler) is out for the season. They're back to getting cooked on the ground. S Derrieon Craig might be back though. He played 35 snaps in the Akron game.
Northern Illinois' offense is bad... UMass has limited explosive plays. I'm be surprised if there's an offensive explosion here. But I do think their physical run game can move the chains a bit in this game. It's pretty much a wash on this side of the ball. On the other side of the ball, this is where the edge goes to Northern Illinois... but I gotta say UMass is healthier. RB1 Rocko Griffin is back which is big. He'd been out about a month. WR1 Jacquon Gibson is back... he'd been out about a month.
Northern Illinois has handled their business against the lower tier MAC teams. They got lit up @ Ohio and @ Toledo... but looked pretty elite defensively in their other conference games.
I really am not sure what to do with this one. UMass only has two realistic chances to win a football game this year. This one and they Bowling Green in Week 14. I don't think Northern Illinois is good enough to be laying double digits on the road. UMASS +11.5 but I'm not touching it.
TOLEDO @ MIAMI (OH) - 7 PM
We all remember what happened in Week 9. Toledo goes into Pullman... they were favored in the game... got their ass beat by Washington State.
Seems like the bye week was exactly what the doctor ordered. Toledo gets RB Chip Trayanum back from injury... they absolutely smoke Northern Illinois 42-3.
They're now in a win or go home situation. A loss here would eliminate Toledo from the MAC Championship running. Miami OH could still mathematically get in with a loss.
This is a Miami Ohio team that's coming off an emotional loss. A blown lead to the team that beat them in the conference championship game last year.
Now we talked about Toledo's offense looking all the way back in the NIU game... but that was at home. These splits are actually insane. Toledo is 5-0 at home and 0-4 on the road. (They've played much tougher opponents)
And this isn't just any road game... this is one of the best defenses in the conference.
This is a defense that just went into Athens against one of the best offenses in the conference. A team who's 22-1 in their last 23 home games... reigning MAC Champions... and held Parker Navarro in check.
Toledo's been struggling to run the ball recently. Now Trayanum didn't play in two of these games... but I'm not sure if I trust em to run the ball on this M-OH defensive front.
Miami Ohio is capable of generating pressure without sending extra rushers... Tucker Gleason has had problems under pressure and tends to hold onto the football. I think Toledo's offense is gonna struggle. The only thing you could say... Miami OH's defense emptied the tank last week... that was their best fastball and they could come out flat... but I doubt it.
Tucker Gleason's been playing extremely well... but the last road game, he looked terrible.
On the other side of the ball, this is where Toledo has the huge advantage. They've been so good defensively... and Miami OH's offense really isn't very strong. RB Kenny Tracy is out for the season and they're just so reliant on DeQuan Finn being a hero.
Since Kenny Tracy got injured, they've really struggled to run the ball consistently.
They've done a good job giving Finn time to throw in the pocket and he's playing his best football of the season right now. But he's not really picking apart secondaries like that.
And I'm also skeptical about whether or not he's gonna have that same time to throw in this one. Toledo's pass rush has been great and Finn has a tendency to hold onto the ball forever.
Toledo's the stronger team and this number is warranted. I would need a flat 3 to actually play it... but it's Toledo for me here.
BUFFALO @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN - 7 PM
So somehow... I know it doesn't feel like it because this season's been pretty disappointing for Buffalo... but this team is right in the running for a possible conference championship appearance. If you look at this team's body of work, it's not that impressive.
Even last week in their 28-3 over Bowling Green... the offense is still extremely concerning.
Now they're going into Mount Pleasant to try and score points on a Central Michigan defense that looks really good. Remember, coming into the season, we thought this defense might be pretty strong. LB Jordan Kwiatkowski is one of the best defensive players in the entire conference.
Now the criticism of Central Michigan's defense... they haven't played any of the elite offenses. They haven't played Ohio, they haven't played Toledo. The best MAC offenses they've seen are Akron and Eastern Michigan... both might be better than Buffalo's offense though.
If you look at their numbers specifically against the run in those games, it does show they might be vulnerable to the run a bit... which is what Buffalo wants to do. So I think Buffalo might be able to move the chains in this game... but I doubt we'll see a huge offensive explosion.
Now on the other side of the ball, this is where Central Michigan might be in a situation... cuz this is a slow-paced, option offense. They're 5th in the country in run frequency. Matt Drinkall is an Army guy. The reason that's a problem... Buffalo's defensive front is very strong.
Look at their numbers against the run in their last 4 games. Central Michigan is an offense that needs to win the battle on the LOS and I just don't think they'll win those battles here.
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