CFB Week 12 Tuesday

KENT STATE @ AKRON - 7:30 PM

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If you're a Kent State fan, I wouldn't let last week's game shake your confidence. This team's got 3 wins... which is 3 times as many as they've had in the previous two seasons.

Last week's game... they really gave it away. As somebody who was on Ball State and the under, I appreciate it... but Kent State was the better team in that game. They went 1/4 on 4th downs. They took the lead... then got the ball back in good field position up 13-10... they ran a weird trick play and threw an interception. They had 10 penalties in the game and a couple of them were very costly.

Now they're heading to Akron for the Wagon Wheel Rivalry. It's also Senior Night for Akron.

Akron's taken the last two... but this rivalry has been pretty back and forth.

This won't be an easy one... remember... nobody was expecting anything from Akron this year.

They started off the season looking basically how everyone expected them to look... but Akron started playing football. They're 3-3 in conference. They're coming off back to back wins. If they win this game, Akron will have 5 wins in a season for the first time since 2017.

Akron's defense. Out of nowhere, they've looked excellent. They haven't seen a decent offense... but still, the Akron defense looks good.

Now I know the final scores don't exactly show it... but Kent State's offense has been playing better. Remember, Kent State played some insane games early in the season.

Dru Deshields is playing well.

But DeShields isn't the only QB in this game finding a groove. Ben Finley is also playing some solid football.

But Kent State's defense is playing its best football of the year right now.

I think this number should be a flat 4... so at 5.5, I'd consider Kent State. I also don't hate an over.

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OHIO @ WESTERN MICHIGAN - 8 PM

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So my first thoughts when I looked at this game were... is this a possible hangover spot for Ohio? They're coming off the game of the year. The rematch of the MAC Championship game... lived up to the hype too. That was one of the best football games of the week.

Now they go on the road and that's concerning... remember Ohio is a beast at home. They're 22-1 in their last 23 home games. They always win at home. On the road is where they've had some problems.

They can't afford another Ball State... cuz this is a huge game. Western Michigan has been the biggest surprise in this conference. They lost their entire elite offensive line from last year (multiple NFL players). QB Hayden Wolff graduated. Their star RB transferred to UCF.

What we weren't expecting... was Western Michigan's defense to be good. It's not just good... it's been really good. This was one of the worst defenses in the MAC last year.

Look at their numbers in conference games. They've been absolutely lights out against the run.

It comes down to the pass rush. Western Michigan's pass rush has been excellent. But on dropbacks where they don't get home, it does seem like they struggle in coverage. They're averaging 3 sacks per game which is top 10 in the country.

If you look at their last two games, their numbers against the pass don't look great. Ohio's got a great offensive line... Parker Navarro should have opportunities to make throws on this Western Michigan secondary.

That being said... I'm worried about Ohio's offense in this game. This is an offense that wants to run the ball... and Ohio is a run-first offense. So I think Navarro can make some throws... but do I think Ohio will be consistently sustaining drives and moving the chains? Not really.

On the other side of the ball, this is where it gets tough... because Western Michigan's offense is not good. They can't throw the ball. Broc Lowry is the QB (and leading rusher)... they do a lot of designed QB runs.

The strength of this Ohio team is not the defense. They've actually played pretty well on this side of the ball but they've been a bit vulnerable to the run which could be a problem. They also have injury conerns. LB Michael Molnah and S Adonis Williams Jr. both were injured in Week 10 and didn't play last week. LB Cam Hollobaugh is also dealing with an injury (only 15 snaps). LB Jack Fries is finally back though... he had pretty much been out since Week 2.

I think this is a really tough matchup for Ohio and I'd be down to make a play on Western Michigan. But the market's already on top of it. It's a pick? Gotta be Ohio.