CFB Week 12 Saturday

Kyle Kirms
Nov 15, 2025
21 min read

NOTRE DAME @ PITTSBURGH - 12 PM

Chance of rain? Chaince of thunderstorms? College GameDay. Aaron Donald jersey retirement. First top 25 match in Pittsburgh in a long time.

Well right off the bat... we know this is gonna be a tough matchup for Notre Dame trying to run the football. OLB Kyle Louis came back for Pittsburgh in the Stanford game and had 11 tackles. They might be getting LB Rasheem Biles back as well. Their 2 corners Lynum and Battle have both been back.

Notre Dame's elite... but this is truly one of the strongest run defenses in the country. Notre Dame is still gonna be missing their starting LG. I'm not sure if we can count on the run game being there for Notre Dame in this game.

Now obviously... we know Notre Dame is not reliant on the run. CJ Carr's been excellent. I do wanna ask though... what's the toughest defense he's seen since Week 4? Cuz remember... Notre Dame started off the season with back to back losses against Miami and Texas A&M... now since then, CJ Carr has been excellent... but against who? (Also only two road games... Arkansas and Boston College)

Now let's be fair here... we can kinda say the same thing about Pitt's defense. They've only played two decent QBs all season.

On the other side of the ball, it looks like Desmond Reid is gonna play which is huge. He's the best player on this Pitt offense. He didn't play in the Stanford game.

Wanna know two of the games Desmond Reid missed? WVU and Louisville.

And Heintschel really has played pretty well. Puts the ball in harm's way a bit too much but he's been an upgrade from Holstein without a doubt.

The problem is... ND got CB Leonard Moore back and this defense is just cruising right now. The concerns we had for Notre Dame's defense are pretty much gone. They're still missing DT Gabriel Rubio for the 2nd straight game... but CB Christian Gray is set to return. CB Dallas Golden came back a while ago... so Notre Dame will have their top 3 corners on the field together for only the 2nd or 3rd time this entire season.

Heantschel has struggled with pressure this year... tends to hold onto the football... Notre Dame's pass rush could be a real problem here.

I like the matchups for both defenses.. so I agree with the movement. I think the total is still a bit too high. The problem is... we're talking about Kade Bell calling the plays. Man runs Pitt's offense at a billion MPH.

UNDER 54.5 for me.

UTSA @ CHARLOTTE - 12 PM

UTSA goes on the road again... UTSA gets smoked again.

These splits are absolutely nuts... and it was the same thing last year.

The thing is... they're playing Charlotte. We know UTSA's offense isn't very good on the road... but is it THIS bad? True test.

And can they make stops here? It's actually an interesting matchup on this side of the ball... cuz UTSA's defense isn't great... but it's Charlotte.

Grayson Loftis has actually played pretty well in the last two games. Remember... Charlotte was beating North Texas in the 2nd half. North Texas scored 35 unanswered points... but Loftis has been completing passes.

UTSA's defense has gotten completely lit up the last 3 games... but those teams are significantly stronger than Charlotte. They were actually playing pretty well before that.

They're on the road... they're outdoors... can't take UTSA. It's gotta be Charlotte or nothing here.

ARIZONA @ CINCINNATI - 12 PM

Despite losing to Utah, Cincinnati still controls their own destiny... because they play BYU next week.

Tough matchup for Arizona's defense. Not only are they coming off a comeback emotional win over Kansas and immediately going on the road to see one of the most explosive offenses in the conference, but Cincinnati's coming off a bye week. And Arizona took a couple hits on the defense last week. DT Tia Savea got injured in the Kansas game and has been ruled out. They also lost one of their depth corners in that game.

Arizona's had some problems stopping the run this year... now they're missing a DT and going against what is probably the best rushing attack in the conference? They might even be getting RB Evan Pryor back.

That being said... I actually think there's a path to Arizona playing a solid defensive game here. Sorsby hasn't looked nearly as sharp in his last two games. It's supposed to be windy... WR2 Caleb Goodie might miss this game. Arizona is also a bunch of ball-hawkers.

On the other side of the ball, it's a bit tougher. Cincinnati's got ugly looking numbers against the run this year... but Arizona doesn't really run the ball that much. Also, Cincinnati was missing Corleone for a couple games.

Cincinnati's pass rush hasn't done much... Fifita's been effective from a clean pocket.

I think it's Arizona if you can get 6.5.

SOUTH FLORIDA @ NAVY - 12 PM

Huge game. It's Senior Day for Navy.

We know the story with Navy... the defense isn't good. Specifically, the secondary can't seem to cover anybody. So even though South Florida is not a passing offense, we know Byrum Brown is more than capable of making the throws.

Look at Navy's numbers against the pass in the last 5 games.

The question in a Navy game is not whether or not they can make stops... cuz they usually can't. The question is usually... can their opponent get Navy's offense off the field?

This is where it gets tough... cuz Navy played a lot of really bad defenses this year... really bad. Then last week, they went on the road to South Bend.... They were held in check. South Florida's defense is really strong... but it's not Notre Dame.

South Florida has been playing some really good defense... and they've seen some strong offenses too.

I don't trust Navy's defense enough to keep em in this one. So it would be South Florida for me but I'd honestly need a 7 to even consider it so it's nowhere close right now.

EASTERN MICHIGAN @ BALL STATE - 12 PM

This one's tough... cuz if you're asking "is Eastern Michigan more than a FG better than Ball State?", the answer is yes. The defense is the strength.

The thing is... Ball State has played really good defense in Muncie. They're a perfect 4-0 at home so far this year and look at those defensive numbers. This is Ball State's last home game. If they win, first undefeated home season since 1978.

And on top of that... we're talking about an Eastern Michigan team that hasn't won a road game yet this year!

On the other side of the ball, Eastern Michigan's defense is pretty bad... but they still have the advantage because this Ball State offense just really isn't much of a threat.

Eastern Michigan's defense has looked much better recently... specifically against the run. That's huge in this matchup because all Ball State can do is run the ball. Ball State might also be missing RB Qua Ashley. He left the Kent State game injured.

The weakness of this Eastern Michigan defense has been the pass rush. QBs just have all day to make throws against this team. Kaiel Kelly just isn't the QB to exploit something like that. He's more of an athlete than a passer. EMU might also be getting one of their main DBs Dramarian McNulty back for this one.

The pick is Eastern Michigan. They're the much better team. The problem is... you're laying 2.5 points on the road with a team that's 0-5 on the road this year... against a team that's 4-0 at home.

MICHIGAN @ NORTHWESTERN - 12 PM

Michigan controls their own destiny.

Battle of clock control here.

This graphic right here makes it look like Michigan is going to steamroll these guys on the ground... but it's a bit misleading.

Northwestern got crushed on the ground against Tulane and Oregon in the first few weeks of the season, since then they've been much better against the run. Michigan will probably be able to run the ball in this game... but nothing like that graphic shows. DT Migo Jackson just made his season debut last week. He had been injured all year.

Michigan's run game seems fine. They're most likely still missing LT Evan Link. RB Justice Haynes had foot surgery, so he won't be back either. Michigan's run game has been fine... but Purdue and Michigan State? Not exactly elite Big Ten defenses.

And Bryce Underwood has not played well at all.

I know Northwestern's defense got lit up last week... they were on the road in the Coliseum. Let's not forget that this defense was looking pretty strong in the 3 games before that. Supposed to be windy as hell at Wrigley Field. Northwestern has never won a football game at Wrigley.

On the other side, this is where it gets tough for Northwestern. Are they able to keep this run game going against Michigan's defense?

Michigan's defense has been great against the run this year but I have a couple conerns. First one being... how many rushing attacks have they seen? Also there are injury concerns. OLB Jaishawn Barham left the Purdue game injured and is questionable. LB Jimmy Rolder got injured in the Michigan State game... he didn't play vs Purdue and is listed as questionable. LB Cole Sullivan also missed the Purdue game. I'm reading he has a good chance of playing in this game tho. S Rod Moore is injured again and might be out for the season.

I'm on Northwestern in this game. I think this number should be 9.5.

AIR FORCE @ UCONN - 12 PM

Senior Day for UConn and the first ever meeting against Air Force.

UConn coming off a great offensive game. 37-34 come from behind win over Duke.

Based on the way Air Force has played on the defensive side of the ball this year, you'd think UConn is gonna light it up again in this one. Air Force can't seem to cover anybody and UConn is a pass-first offense. UConn should also be getting their RB2 Mel Brown back. He hasn't played since Week 3. They might also be getting a WR back who's been out since Week 2.

I know you might be thinking "Kyle the Air Force defense is playing better recently"... The final scores are a little deceiving. They did get DB Levi Brown back from injury so maybe they're slightly better. But keep in mind... San Jose State turned the ball over 3 times in the game. Air Force was not really making stops.

On the other side of the ball, this is a really tough matchup for UConn's defense. They're also most likely still missing DB Lee Molette III who's one of the teams main tacklers.

Remember... this is a UConn defense that just gave up 300 yards rushing and lost outright to Rice, (who also runs an option offense). Rice is nearly as explosive as Navy.

UConn's done a good job limiting explosive plays... so Air Force will probably have to string together long drives... but they shouldn't have problems doing that.

I understand the concern for the Air Force defense... but idk how you lay 6.5 points in a game where they can't make stops? It would be Air Force or over.

SOUTH CAROLINA @ TEXAS A&M - 12 PM

Revenge game for Elko and the Aggies. This was kind of the knockout punch to A&M's season last year.

Texas A&M could not stop this offense... Sellers went nuts. 244 yards passing / 105 yards rushing. But now they're heading to Kyle Field where they've never won a game... ever.

So yeah... this year's South Carolina offense is not good.

Now Beamer just fired OC Mike Shula after just 9 games. WR coach Mike Furrey is gonna take over as playcaller... so we don't really know what to expect here... but that could catch Texas A&M by surprise.

New playcaller... Texas A&M's defense hasn't looked all that great recently... I think South Carolina's gonna connect on a few big plays in this game.

On the other side of the ball, the Texas A&M offense is just a wagon. South Carolina's defense isn't bad but it's tough to see anyone stopping A&M on this side of the ball.

But South Carolina has been strong against the run... Remember A&M is still missing LeVeon Moss. Where South Carolina has struggled is against QBs who drop back and make throws from the pocket... that's not exactly what Texas A&M does.

I think you gotta go South Carolina at this huge number. I took South Carolina 1H +10.5.

ARKANSAS @ LSU - 12:45 PM

They're calling this game the SEC Interim Bowl.

So I guess Nussmeier is still the QB for LSU. They benched him in the 2nd half cuz they were looking for a "spark".

So we're coming towards the end of the season here and... this LSU offense just never came around. WR1 Aaron Anderson should be good to go for this one. Arkansas' defense is terrible so maybe this is finally a game where LSU can put a big number up.

I gotta say though... I don't think Arkansas' defense is quite as bad as perceived.

We have to start pricing LSU has a lower tier SEC offense because that's just what they are.

On the other side of the ball, do we trust LSU to stop this offense? I'm not sure if LB Whit Weeks is gonna be back for this game. He's listed as a gametime decision so we'll see.

LSU's defense hasn't looked quite the same. They played 3 elite offenses in a row but Arkansas is an elite offense.

This is the Golden Boot Rivalry.

Arkansas is not a team that's scared of Death Valley.

Arkansas... I'm in at 6.5. I think it's playable anything 4.5 or better.

OREGON STATE @ TULSA - 1 PM

Is Tulsa a rushing offense now?

That's gonna be tough against Oregon State.

In fact, let's give Oregon State some credit... this year's been disappointing... but they're actually playing some defense right now.

This is gonna be an Oregon State defense that's pissed off... coming off one of the weirdest losses of the season. 474 to 157 in total yards. Sam Houston scored on a kickoff return and a blocked punt. They had 8 first downs in the entire game.

On the other side of the ball, it's tough to really evaluate both these units. Oregon State just cannot finish drives. They're moving the chains... they just can't finish drives. And Tulsa's defense is terrible... but they haven't been quite as bad as we thought. Hankerson is 7th in the country in rush yards. Gabarri Johnson, (the new QB), is also dual threat.

It's been forever since Oregon State won a road game (early 2024). This should be a game where they can control the clock. They should be on a 3 game winning streak right now. I guess Oregon State.

WEST VIRGINIA @ ARIZONA STATE - 1 PM

Does Rich Rod have himself a football team here? Remember, they almost beat TCU the week before this also.

I will say... the offense still doesn't look great. It's better... but it's still a low-end Big 12 offense. Remember RB Jahiem White is out for the year. Their other RB Hubbard is dealing with an injury also. They're literally using one of their LBs as a short yardage RB right now.

And this Arizona State defense may not have the best year-long numbers, but they've looked pretty good recently, especially in their home games. They're also getting EDGE Prince Dorbah back. He missed the last two games. Leads the team in sacks and one of the best players on this defense.

It's the other side of the ball... this is where I just have no idea. It looks like we're not gonna see Sam Leavitt and Jordan Tyson... probably the two best players on the team. So we know Arizona State is going to be 100% reliant on running the ball. West Virginia has good numbers against the run so far this year.

Here's where it gets challenging. Do we just forget the first conference games?

I was thinking under... but the market's already all over that. Look at the pace. 47.5 is a pretty low total for a Rich Rodriguez game.

I personally think Arizona State is gonna control this game on the ground... but with a one-dimensional offense... West Virginia's coming into this game with confidence. I think I'd have to lean West Virginia. 10.5 is probably the perfect number though.

MARSHALL @ GEORGIA STATE - 2 PM

Well the Marshall Cinderella story has come to a screeching halt.

The magic we were seeing from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson seems to have disappeared. RB Michael Allen is now hurt also and I'm not sure if he'll be back for this one.

So will they be able to run the ball on Georgia State?

Georgia State's defensive front actually played really well in their last couple games in this building... but this is not a good defense.

My concern for Georgia State is actually on the other side of the ball. Cameran Brown took over at QB and they finally found something. The offense looked good. He just got hurt in the Coastal game and is listed as questionable.

If it's TJ Finley at quarterback, I can't back Georgia State.

If Cameran Brown is good to go, it would be Georgia State +7.5. If it's Finley, it's a pass. GSU Senior Day.

UTEP @ MISSOURI STATE - 3 PM

Don't let the final scores of these games fool you.. UTEP is playing much better football recently.

Look at their numbers against the pass. This team is not getting thrown on.

That could be a problem for Missouri State. This is a pass-first offense. They don't pose much of a threat on the ground.

Do we think UTEP can compete on the other side of the ball though? It's tough... they've been terrible offensively this year... but Missouri State's defense is not very good either.

Since officially making the QB change, UTEP has been better offensively.

I thought UTEP was undervalued, but the fact that this one's at 4.5, means the market's pretty on top of this. So I'll say UTEP but 4 is probably the correct number.

VIRGINIA @ DUKE - 3:30 PM

Virginia was playing with fire... they finally got burned. Now QB Chandler Morris leading the game in the 2nd quarter certainly didn't help. They were down 7-6 at the time... but Virginia's offense had been trending downward for several weeks before this game.

This has been going on for a while.

Loser of this game is out of the ACC Championship race (I believe). Duke's Senior Day.

Now Duke's defense has really struggled this year... but do we really trust Virginia's offense right now? Chandler Morris is questionable. Duke's strength defensively is stopping the run... where they've been weak is in coverage. Virginia's passing offense was already shaky... without Chandler Morris, do we really trust Virginia to exploit Duke's weaknesses?

And Duke's defense... they've gotten completely cooked plenty of times. But they've also played a lot of really strong offenses. If you rewind back to when they saw struggling offenses, the defense actually played well.

The other side of the ball is where we're gonna see a better battle. Duke's got one of the most explosive offenses in the country and Virginia's defense has looked really good.

But I gotta say... Virginia has played a lot of games against some really bad offenses this year. They've played 4 consecutive games against bad offenses. In fact, all season... they've only played 3 games against offenses I would consider to be decent. The defense didn't look very good in any of them.

This Duke offense might be the best Virginia's seen all year.

Anything under 6, it has to be Duke. Idk if I can bet it... this Virginia team has just been too magical... even when they're getting their ass beat... somehow you'll look up and theyre winning 23-20.

PENN STATE @ MICHIGAN STATE - 3:30 PM

So I guess the question is... was that everything Penn State had left in the tank?

We've got a battle in the Big Ten basement. Senior Day.

So I think we all agree that Penn State should probably be able to run the ball against this injured Michigan State defensive front.

Look at their last 4 games.

And if you're thinking "oh well Kyle... Penn State hasn't been that efficient on the ground recently", just look at the opponents.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan State's offensive line is so injured. We don't even know if Aidan Chiles is playing QB anymore.

This rivalry has been surprisingly back and forth.

Penn State's defense is definitely injured... but this should be a dominating win. Penn State might be playable at 7.

TEXAS STATE @ SOUTHERN MISS - 3:30 PM

Last place on the road against first place and the line is only 3.

Texas State is 0-5 in conference... they could easily be 4-1. This was one of the favorites to win the division before the year started. That's why the line's only 3.

And Texas State's offense might be a problem for Southern Miss. We've seen Southern Miss get run on a few times this year and Texas State has one of the most explosive run games in the conference.

The thing is... Texas State's been pretty reliant on big plays and Southern Miss has done a great job limiting those. And speaking of big plays, look at the other side of the ball.

And that's the story in this one. I can't see Texas State making stops here.

They actually have done a decent job generating pressure but they can't seem to cover anybody. As long as Braylon Braxton is healthy, he shouldn't have problems with it.

I guess I understand the movement a little bit... but at 3, it's Southern Miss.

IOWA @ USC - 3:30 PM

I know it's USC... in SoCal... but how is this defense getting off the field? Iowa's got one of the best rushing attacks in the country.

This is gonna be the worst run defense Iowa has seen in two months.

Northwestern had zero problems coming into the Coliseum and running the ball on USC's defense.

The question is on the other side of the ball... cuz we're talking about USC's offense at home. Iowa's defense is elite... but I'm not sure I trust any defense in the country to stop USC's offense from scoring at home.

Look at USC's numbers in their 3 home Big Ten games. If it was just Michigan State, ok... but Michigan and Northwestern have strong defenses. Maybe not quite as strong as Iowa's... but still, USC's offense is a wagon at home.

The only offenses Iowa has seen this season that could compare to USC's offense in the coliseum would be Indiana and Oregon. Iowa struggled to make stops in both those games... both were also at home in Kinnick, (and the Oregon game was in terrible weather).

As much as I'd love to take Iowa +7... I think I'd have to go over. It's just tough to take an over up at 49.5 in an Iowa game. They do nothing but run the ball and move at a slow pace. And against USC? They're going to try and hold onto the football as long as possible.

OKLAHOMA @ ALABAMA - 3:30 PM

Venables put DeBoer in an absolute coffin last year. Alabama looking for revenge and to clinch a spot in the SEC Championship game.

Look at these offensive numbers.

I've had my finger on the pulse of this Oklahoma team... I've actually been on the right side of 4 straight Oklahoma games.

Look this Alabama offense is a powerhouse... but we can't sleep on Oklahoma's defense. Alabama's had problems running the football all year and Oklahoma has the best defensive line in the country.

And with no run support... that Oklahoma pass rush is gonna be coming for Ty Simpson. Now Ty Simpson has handled pressure well... but look at the TWP. He also has a tendency to hold onto the football. Oklahoma leads the SEC in sacks and leads the country in TFLs.

Oklahoma just went into Knoxville and gave Tennessee's offense problems. That's one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They did this without R Mason Thomas. He left that game injured in the 1st quarter.

And it's not like Alabama's offense has been excellent. They struggled a bit in the LSU game. They struggled in the South Carolina game. LG Kam Dewberry should be good to go. Got injured in the LSU game.

On the other side of the ball, you guys know I'm not the biggest fan of the Oklahoma offense.

Oklahoma has actually been running the ball the last couple games... but we know Ole Miss and Tennessee don't have defenses comparable to Alabama.

I don't think it's crazy to say Oklahoma might run the ball a bit in this game. Alabama's had problems defending the run this year.

Mateer has not been efficient at all throwing the ball... but between some run support and him using his legs. I think Oklahoma can make some plays offensively. They're not gonna do a ton... but it shouldn't be a complete shutdown. Oklahoma will make some noise.

I'm on Oklahoma at +7.

MEMPHIS @ EAST CAROLINA - 4 PM

This is a really tough matchup for Memphis. ECU's defense has been elite against the run... they've been especially tough at home. Memphis is an offense that uses the run to set everything else up. Brendon Lewis isn't the traditional pocket passer.

And on the other side, ECU throws the ball a lot... they have that quick run and gun type offense... Memphis has shown us repeatedly that they're vulnerable to the pass.

Look at Memphis' defensive numbers against the pass in their last 3 games (minus Rice).

Houser should be able to make throws... the number's gone. I'm on ECU +1.5. I actually think at 3.5, the value's probably back on the Memphis side.

NEW MEXICO STATE @ TENNESSEE - 4:15 PM

I know this game is ridiculous... but let's not forget. New Mexico State went on the road and beat Auburn badly. Now... Diego Pavia was playing QB. Jerry Kill was there. That was a different era of New Mexico State football... just saying, it's happened before.

New Mexico State is a pass-first offense and Tennessee's been playing this entire season without both their star corners. Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III both have been out for a while. LB Arion Carter may miss another game as well.

Tennessee might score 70 points in this game.

Over 60.5 would be the only way to go here.

NORTH CAROLINA @ WAKE FOREST - 4:30 PM

I'm on UNC in this one... and trust me, I get it. I understand that we don't know how they're going to move the ball against Wake's defense.

North Carolina's offense was struggling to move the ball in a home game vs Stanford last week.

We thought the Wake Forest defense fell off... after the Florida State game, it was like "ok Wake's defense was decent for a while but that's over now". They bounced back by completely shutting down Virginia the following week. Now... Chandler Morris left the game early in the 2nd quarter and Virginia's offense has been trending downward for a while... regardless, they're gonna make stops against North Carolina.

But here's the thing... despite struggling to move the ball on Stanford's defense... North Carolina still won comfortably. It was 20-9 in the final minutes of the game. Stanford backdoor covered.

The point I'm making is... despite North Carolina's offense being unreliable, they're still playing some decent football... because they're playing excellent defense right now.

Look what UNC did to the last 4 offenses they saw. They're allowing 2.14 YPC. They might be getting CB Thaddeus Dixon back as well. He's missed all 4 of these games. WR Micah Mays Jr. is questionable. TE Eni Falayi returned last week.

This is a low scoring defensive game... idk how you lay 6.5 with either team.

I'm on UNC +6.5.

UTAH @ BAYLOR - 7 PM

Win over Cincinnati was huge. Utah is very much still alive in the Big 12 race. BYU and Cincinnati still play each other. Arizona State's QB is out for the year.

Baylor actually just played an elite defensive game. Does that mean we ignore the previous 3 games?

And specifically... they've had problems with the run. So it seems crazy to think we'll see a great defensive effort out of Baylor here. Dampier had the bye week to heal that injury up.

Texas Tech made that statement against Utah and held em in check. Since then... they've run the ball successfully on every single opponent.

I actually do think there's a path to Baylor holding their own defensively. We saw what they did to UCF. They loaded the box and trusted their DBs in man coverage. They're definitely gonna do that here... can Dampier make em pay for it? He hasn't been very efficient throwing the ball.

I think Baylor can afford to be extremely aggressive on defense taking away the run. They've actually done a good job limiting big plays and Utah hasn't really connected on big downfield throws.

The question comes on the other side of the ball. This Utah defense is elite... but Baylor's offense is explosive as hell.

Utah's got an elite pass rush... but Sawyer Robertson gets the ball out quickly and has actually been excellent against the blitz and under pressure this year.

Utah's weakness defensively has been allowing big plays... Baylor is a big play machine.

I wanna take Baylor here. Cincinnati was moving the ball in that game and just couldn't stop turning it over. Baylor +8.5.

FLORIDA @ OLE MISS - 7 PM

Lane Kiffin audition?

That 24-20 loss to Georgia... I think that mighta been everything Florida had left in the tank.

I don't even think Ole Miss defense is very good... but with Dallas Wilson and Eugene Wilson both shut down for the year, this Florida offense is just too limited to trust.

Maybe the DJ Lagway benching was a wakeup call? I'm reading that he's still the starter. Ole Miss hasn't shown much of a pass rush... so this wouldn't be a bad matchup for Lagway to get back on track.

Look specifically at their road games.

The strength of this Florida team is the defense... but Ole Miss offense has been one of the most explosive in the country and it's just tough to see.

They've seen some really tough defenses and still managed to put points up.

There's also some revenge here. Going to the swamp ruined their season. If it wasn't for this game, Ole Miss most likely goes to the CFB Playoff.

Ole Miss in a blowout.

TEXAS @ GEORGIA - 7:30 PM

Double revenge spot for Texas... Georgia got em twice last year.

Although I gotta say... how Texas lost that SEC Championship game, I still don't understand.

This is a big one... you'd have to think the loser of this game will not be playing in the SEC Championship game.

So what do we think of the matchup on this side of the ball? Cuz we know the Texas offense has been incredibly disappointing this year.

Are our concerns for the Texas offense gone? You might be thinking "well Kyle... Miss State and Vanderbilt don't have the best defenses"... well neither does Georgia.

Georgia's defense hasn't been terrible or anything... but it's not on the level of Ohio State, Oklahoma or Florida... which are the 3 games we're really concerned about when it comes to Arch Manning. Remember, this is a defense that lost two starters recently that most likely won't be back for this one. S Kyron Jones and DT Jordan Hall. CB Demello Jones might be back for this one though.

I think Texas is gonna move the ball. Arch Manning played really well last week. Georgia hasn't shown much if a pass rush this year. Since halftime of the Mississippi State game, he's looked good. Is it possible that the Texas offense is peaking at the right time?

The more interesting matchup is on the other side... these are the strengths of both teams. Can the Texas defense make stops against Georgia?

Georgia's offense didn't look all that great when they saw elite defenses.

But here's the thing... what elite offenses has Texas seen?

Texas did get pieced up through the air in back to back games... but there's also a couple things to consider here. First... Vanderbilt didn't do anything until late. It was 34-10 in the 4th quarter. 2nd... Captain and leading tackler S Michael Taaffe didn't play in these two games. He's back now. Also their other S Jelani McDonald lefgmt the Vanderbilt game after 11 snaps. He wasn't in the game when they came back. Both are playing.

I did play Texas at +6... didn't get a 6.5. Not sure how much I like this one.

MISS STATE @ MISSOURI - 7:45 PM

This one was simple for me. Mississippi State can't stop the run. Georgia's been having problems running the ball all season. They just went on the road and averaged 6.9 YPC against this defense. Missouri has one of the best RBs in the country.

Their main tackler and best defensive player, S Isaac Smith has been ruled out.

And on the other side, we don't even know if Blake Shapen is gonna play. Missouri's one of the best defenses in the country.

Blake Shapen has struggled with pressure this year... if he can't play, it's gonna be a Freshman starting against this pass rush. They're big on Kamario Taylor... but a road start against Missouri?

I'm on Missouri -6.

TCU @ BYU - 10:15 PM

Both these teams are coming off embarrassing losses.

I thought coming off a bye week.. at home.. against an extremely injured Iowa State secondary was a perfect bounce back spot for TCU's offense. It wasn't. They played a terrible game.

So it's tough to be confident about this offense going into Provo. BYU's defense has been excellent this year.