CFB Week 11 Tuesday
- Kyle Kirms
- 17 hours ago
- 3 min read
MIAMI OHIO @ OHIO - 7 PM
RedHawks looking to get their revenge. Miami beat em in the regular season but the Bobcats got their revenge when it counted. Miami Ohio has won 11 consecutive MAC regular season games.
And if Ohio wins this game, which they're favored to do... we could be shaping up to see a rematch in the MAC Championship again this year.
In the last four seasons, the Ohio Bobcats have only lost one game at home. They're 21-1 at home. So this team defends their homefield extremely well. They also cover the number at a high rate. But you wanna know who the one loss was? Miami Ohio in 2023.
Coach Brian Smith reminded his guys of that.
It feels like this happens every year... Miami Ohio opens up the season with a tough non-con schedule... the defense looks shaky. They we get into MAC play and the RedHawks look like the best defense in the conference.
This will be the toughest test... because the Ohio Bobcats are the reigning conference champions... and I think most would agree that this is the best offense in the MAC.
And especially at home. This team is undefeated at home so far this year, including a win over West Virginia. Look at the offensive numbers from their two home MAC games.
Miami Ohio is capable of generating pressure without blitzing... which should be a recipe that's capable of giving Parker Navarro some problems. He has a tendency to hold onto the football and he's got great numbers against the blitz.
Also, Ohio's been cruising offensively... but this is gonna be the best defense they've seen outside of Ohio State. Miami Ohio has the talent on defense to limit these explosive plays and cause some problems in the backfield.
On the other side of the ball, this is where the advantage swings back towards Miami Ohio. This Ohio defense has actually played pretty well recently... but they played some bad offenses. And also, we've got serious injury concerns here. S Adonis Williams Jr. and LB Michael Molnar (the team’s two leading tacklers) both left the EMU game injured and are questionable. LB Cameron Hollobaugh (5th leading tackler) missed the EMU game and is listed as questionable.
Miami Ohio's offense isn't great. But they've got one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and he seems to be getting comfortably. He's coming off his best two games of the season. This is huge... because remember, Miami Ohio lost their star RB Kenny Tracy a few weeks ago for the season.
I kinda wanna bet an under.
I'm not stepping in front of this.
Miami Ohio +3.5.
UMASS @ AKRON - 7 PM
This one was a simple decision for me. We should see a billion possessions in this game.
I know UMass has played some low scoring games recently... but look at the opponents. Central Michigan... slow pace rushing offense. Buffalo... rushing offense. Kent State... slow pace rushing offense. Western Michigan... slow paced rushing offense.
Their offense looks terrible. Don't get me wrong, but they throw the ball a lot and move fast.
Akron has some good looking numbers against the pass in their last four games. They've played all offenses that run the ball.
Look what happened the last time Akron saw a passing offense. They gave up 31 points to UAB in this game.
I wanna be clear... I'm not suggesting that UMass is gonna go nuts offensively. Their offense is bad. But I do think Akron's defense is vulnerable to the pass... and by the sheer number of possessions we should see in this game, I think we can count on UMass getting the ball in the endzone a couple times. MASS OFF VS AKR DEF And that's all we should need... cuz on the other side of the ball, Ben Finley should piece the UMass defense up. The strength of the UMass defense is stopping the run... Akron wants to throw the ball. MASS DEF VS AKR OFF Ben Finley's starting to throw the ball well. I know these numbers don't look electric, but all four of these defenses are way better than UMass. They're also all rushing teams, most of them slow-paced... so he's averaging 246 yards passing in games with limited possessions.
Look at UMass last 3 games... all 3 of these teams are run-first offenses.
And on top of that, Akron might finally be getting their star WR back. He transferred in from LSU in 2022 and led the team in receiving. He got injured in 2023 and missed all of last season.
