CFB Week 11 Saturday

Kyle Kirms
Nov 8
24 min read

TEMPLE @ ARMY - 12 PM

Temple's coming off a backbreaker... not just a home loss to ECU. ECU's a strong team. That's not a terrible loss... but they got smoked with injuries. Temple's defense is an absolute trainwreck. CB Jaylen Castleberry set to return for Temple (missed 1 game) and their other main CB Ben Osueke who left the ECU game injured is also gonna play. Two safeties Avery Powell and Dontae Pollard got injured in the 1st quarter of the ECU game and both are questionable (They have two other safeties that play a lot though Frye and Morton). EDGE Sekou Kromah's been banged up the last couple games and it looks like he's probably not gonna play. LB Eric Stuart (3rd leading tackler) is missing practice and listed as questionable. DT Demerick Morris missed practice and is listed as questionable.

And now they gotta play Army... not that Army's offense is anything spectacular. But you gotta tackle... you gotta be in position. Having backups on the field isn't exactly ideal. Not to mention... Temple's struggled to defend the run this year and that happens to be the only thing Army does.

We already saw Temple against an option offense in Navy... it didn't go well. Navy had no problems moving the ball. Although Temple almost won that game. Navy scored a TD to take the lead with 39 seconds left. Final score was 32-31.

Army should be able to move the ball in this game against a really injured Temple defense. Army's offense has certainly had its ups and downs... but they've played so many road games that they might be a bit undervalued.

The good news for Temple is on the other side of the ball, Army's really struggled to defend the pass. We know KC Keeler wants to run the ball... but they do throw it a decent amount and when they have, it's been extremely efficient.

Evan Simon did not play well last week.

But entering that game, he was playing his best football of his career. He's been lights out from a clean pocket and Army doesn't have much of a pass rush.

I like Temple to move the ball in this game. It's tough to consider taking a +7 if they can't get off the field though. And it's also tough to take an over in what might be a really slow-paced football game.

Temple +7 and over 45.5.

COLORADO @ WEST VIRGINIA - 12 PM

It just keeps getting worse for Colorado. The injuries are nuts. So now both offensive tackles are listed as questionable. Jordan Seaton and Larry Johnson III. Remember, this is already a team that was missing OG Xavier Hill, who's one of the best offensive lineman in the Big 12. Hill has been upgraded to probable.

And that's a problem... because West Virginia's defense may not be excellent... but they've played way better at home in Morgantown. Utah's the only offense that's been able to move the ball on this team in Morgantown. They just shut TCU's offense down here a couple weeks ago.

Things are not going well offensively for Colorado. Salter's got 86 combined pass yards in these two games. They benched him and brought in Ryan Staub. He attempted two passes and threw two interceptions. They've switched play callers to analyst Brett Bartolone. Freshman 5 star QB Juju Lewis set to make his first career start. Coach Prime wouldn't let the media talk to any of his players after the blowout loss to Arizona. Props to Deion... didn't mention the injuries.

On the other side of the ball, this graphic makes it look like Colorado's defense has the edge. But these two units are trending in completely opposite directions. Colorado's so injured on this side of the ball also. CB DJ McKinney is questionable (new injury). S Tawfiq Byard suspended 1st half for targeting. DT Amari McNeill will miss anothre game. CB Makari Vickers will miss another game.

And Rich Rod might be figuring things out here. They seem to have their QB in Scotty Fox... they're coming off their best offensive game of the season by a mile.

I think we're getting a glimpse of the West Virginia of the future. Since Scott Fox has taken the reigns at QB, they almost beat TCU and then went on the road and beat Houston.

It would only be West Virginia. There's no way I can lay 6.5 but one team seems to be packing it in for the season and the other seems to be playing their best football right now.

SMU @ BOSTON COLLEGE - 12 PM

How is Wake Forest SMU's only loss during this 3 game stretch?

I don't believe Miami is mathematically eliminated... but 2 losses certainly puts em back. SMU, on the other hand, is still very much in this. I believe SMU controls their destiny. So if they win out, I believe they're guaranteed a spot in the ACC Championship game.

Now they go to Boston College to play a 1-8 team... it's crazy that BC is 1-8. They're not a terrible team at all. They have, however, lost 8 games in a row... the last 5 were all by two touchdowns or more.

The Boston College defensive numbers on the year don't look that bad.

But the wheels have really fallen off the wagon here. They're struggling against the run. They're struggling against the pass. Maybe we cut em a little bit of slack having played Clemson, Louisville and Notre Dame. But UConn came into Boston College and pieced em up also. Injuiries are a concern. 4 of their top 6 DTs are injured. DT Sed McConnell will be back for this one though. 4 of their top 6 CBs are injured. CB TJ Green questionable.

SMU's offense hasn't looked very good at all. Jennings is still dealing with a leg injury. But look at these opponents. Going on the road and scoring points at BC is usually tough. But this defense is so injured, that I think we can count on SMU's offense.

On the other side of the ball, I don't even know what's going on with the Boston College offense and I don't think Bill O'Brien does either. So he benched Lonergen in the Clemson game. The next two weeks, he was being really cagey about who the starting QB is. Grayson James started both games and didn't really play well. Then last week, he announces that Dylan Lonergan is the starter again for the Notre Dame game. He benches him super early in the game.

Now... it is the Red Bandana game, which they take seriously here. They won this game last year. They almost upset #3 Florida State in the Red Bandana game in 2023. 31-29 final score. They upset #9 USC in 2014.

SMU's defense has been great... but they might be slightly over-valued based on their schedule.

BC +10.5 but I can't bet it.

INDIANA @ PENN STATE - 12 PM

This has been a one-sided series.

Indiana had 588 yards of offense... in a road conference game.

Going on the road to Happy Valley is definitely different than going to Maryland. And this data point is a bit unfair... Penn State was in Columbus. But Ohio State really didn't have problems scoring points on this defense in what was their last chance to salvage something of a season.

Indiana star WR Elijah Sarratt left the Maryland game injured. I don't believe it's serious but he's listed as a game-time decision for this one. If he's out, Penn State should be able to generate some stops. They're also gonna be missing RG Drew Evans for a 2nd straight game.

Remember, it's not like we've never seen Indiana's offense look mortal. They didn't look nearly as explosive in their first two road Big Ten games against Oregon and Iowa.

The bigger problem for Penn State is on the other side of the ball. How can we trust this Penn State offense to move the ball? The strength of Cignetti's defenses is stopping the run. That's been the case back to when he was at James Madison. You're not gonna run the ball on a Cignetti team... although I'd like to see LB Aiden Fisher on the field. He's the 2nd leading tackler on the team. He didn't play in the Maryland game... but Maryland can't run the ball anyway. He's listed as questionable.

Trying to get an idea for how good this Penn State offense is right now is tough. Cuz we've seen them play two games since Drew Allar's been injured... and the offense looks terrible. So we could say "ok this offense sucks without Allar". But they played back to back road games @ Kinnick and @ Columbus. Two of the toughest places to play in the entire country. I would imagine a healthy Drew Allar woulda put up the same terrible numbers in those two games. So in my opinion, we don't have enough data to measure the dropoff from Allar to Grunkemeyer.

It would only be Indiana here but there's no way I bet this. This is a huge number and we're talking about Penn State at home.

JAMES MADISON @ MARSHALL - 12 PM

Last week was a nightmare for Marshall. They get smoked by Coastal.

Such a crazy game... Coastal's offense wasn't exactly sustaining drives. It was just turnovers and huge plays. Marshall turned the ball over 5 times in the game. The defense actually didn't play that bad outside of a few explosive plays.

The problem is... that's not a surprise. That's been the story with this Marshall defense for a lot of this season. The efficiency numbers aren't that bad... but they just can't stop giving up huge plays. Marshall also might be missing EDGE Braydin Ward who leads the team in sacks.

How can we expect stops? I like Tony Gipson and I know Huntington isn't the easiest spot to go move the football... but based on what we've seen, it's tough to count on stops.

Barnett got off to a slow start but he's cooking right now.

Marshall's offense is really gonna have trouble moving the ball in this one. This is an offense that tries to run the ball. They're not very efficient and nobody runs the ball on James Madison.

This will be the toughest defense Marshall has seen Georgia.

James Madison just played back to back games against arguably the two strongest offenses in the Sun Belt Conference and blanked em both.

Feel like the Cinderella story might be over here for Marshall.

SOUTHERN MISS @ ARKANSAS STATE - 12 PM

Arkansas State is certainly not a defense that we trust... and at first glance, you'd think Southern Miss should steamroll this unit.

Don't look now... but Nate Dreiling might have this defense coming around. They had 9 sacks against Troy last week.

Southern Miss lit ULM up last week... but the efficiency numbers don't look all that great in the 3 games before that. The run game hasn't been consistent at all, which is strange considering what we saw Huff do at Marshall last season.

On the other side, this is a really tough matchup for Arkansas State's offense. They just lost LG Tristan Smith (best OL on team) out for season. RS Freshman playing in his spot.

The Southern Miss pass rush has been strong... Raynor can handle pressure though so it's not a deal breaker.

I wanna bet the under... but the pace is terrifying.

GEORGIA @ MISSISSIPPI STATE - 12 PM

The streak is over. Mississippi State has officially won their first SEC game in over 2 years. They were down 14 in the 4th quarter too.

Georgia's offense didn't look too powerful in their first game without WR Colbie Young.

We've now seen Georgia's offense struggle in 2 of their last 3 games. They were able to pull out W's in both... but it's definitely something to take note of considering this is an offensive team. Georgia's gonna have serious trouble winning an SEC Championship game or CFB Playoff games only scoring 22 points because their defense is not great.

But both Auburn and Florida have elite defenses... Mississippi State does not. If you look at Georgia's games against some lesser SEC defenses that are more comparable to Miss State, it certainly looks a lot better.

I would imagine they'll move be able to move the ball against Miss State's defense. Although I will say, the weakness of Miss State's defense has been stopping the run more so than the pass.

Mississippi State has done a solid job against the pass this year. They've struggled against the run.

Georgia has been struggling to run the ball recently. I personally think they'll run the ball just fine in this one. They were missing RT Earnest Greene for a few games and he's now back. Miss State's front 7 isn't great. S Jahron Manning is listed as questionable (leading tackler)

My concern for Georgia is on the other side of the ball. On top of struggling on the defensive side of the ball, Georgia's got injury conerns. S Kyron Jones will miss his 3rd straight game. DT Jordan Hall injured in Florida game. He will be out "some time". EDGE Chris Cole (T1st sacks) also got injured in the Florida game. He's listed as questionable. CB3 Demello Jones also got injured in the Florida game and is listed as questionable. RT Albert Reese is questionable for MSST but Fluff Bothwell is back.

Blake Shapen's been playing well... and he's battle tested. He's seen some tough defenses.

It would be MSST for me... but I think over is the best play.

BYU @ TEXAS TECH - 12 PM

Texas Tech finally gets over the hump. Their first win in Manhattan since 2008.

This is the big one here.

So good news for BYU... LJ Martin is practicing and is expected to play in this one. The question is... can BYU run the ball in this game.

Texas Tech has been elite against the run all year. They lost DT Skyler Gill-Howard a couple games ago for the season... it hasn't seemed to matter so far.

BYU was able to run the ball on Utah's defense. But that game was at home... this one's in Lubbock. Also... Utah's defensive front seems to be a step down from Texas Tech's.

Texas Tech generates consistent pressure without blitzing. I don't see how BYU consistently moves the ball in this game.

If BYU wants to compete, it's going to have to be on the other side of the ball.

I'm a little worried about BYU's defensive front. They've been run on the last few games.

Behren Morton at home, where he always seems to play much better.

OHIO STATE @ PURDUE - 1 PM

I don't have a ton of interest in this one.

It looked like Purdue was getting it together defensively for a couple games but it came crashing down. They really struggled to get off the field in their last two.

Maybe you could convince me that Ohio State's offense is stopped a couple times in the game... but how are we expecting Purdue to score points? Especially considering they just lost their RB1 Devin Mockobee for the season last week.

I know Purdue's been competitive in a few of these games and they're coming close to breaking through... but this ain't the spot.

Ohio State should kill em. I guess OSU.

BOWLING GREEN @ EASTERN MICHIGAN - 1 PM

Bowling Green's offense is kind of a mess right now. Eddie George fired his OC Travis Partridge... which is never a good sign. It's his first year! That's his OC from Tennessee State. QB Drew Pyne is still injured and I'm not sure he'll be back for this one. There's been a ton of penalties. A few players got arrested for assault from a bar fight.

I know Eastern Michigan has struggled defensively for most of this year and the last two games don't look great. They played the two best teams in the conference. The previous two games, where they played opponents that are more comparable to Bowling Green, they actually played well defensively.

On the other side of the ball, I think it's a really nice buy-low spot on the Eastern Michigan offense. The numbers from the last 4 games don't look great, but they played some tough teams.

Bowling Green's defense has actually done a solid job. They're better than I thought they'd be. But their strength is stopping the run and they've played 3 consecutive games against run-first offenses. It might be a sell-high spot for them now that they're seeing a passing offense for the first time in a month.

EMU just went into the 4th quarter tied against Ohio... the best team in the conference. Before that they were on the road in Miami-OH... the other best team in the conference. This should be at 3. Gimme EMU -2.5.

UAB @ RICE - 2 PM

Not sure what's going on at QB for UAB. Kitna got hurt. The backup Ryder Burton came in and they beat Memphis outright. Then last week, Kitna starts but apparently he's not healthy. Because they take him out of the game after two series.

The Rice defense isn't bad... but it's not great either. They were able to play ok defensive games against UConn and Memphis. Both are very good offenses.

The other side of the ball is where Rice should have control of this game. They run the option offense and UAB can't make stops. Rice should be able to hold onto the football forever in this game.

UAB's defense just never gets into the backfield... whether it's generating pressure or disrupting a run... they just don't cause any havoc. Rice should be able to throw the ball in this game as well.

This is another game that should be at 3. Rice -1.5.

IOWA STATE @ TCU - 3:30 PM

Bye week came at a perfect time for TCU. LG Cade Bennett had been injured. He's set to return for this one. C Colton Deery is questionable... so we'll have to see with him. But WR Joseph Manjack IV has also been banged up. Bye week was good for him as well. They're at home, healthier and rested... against an Iowa State defense that's the complete opposite. Both DTs might be out for this game, Orange and McDonough. Starting S Ta'Shawn James is out. Starting S Jamison Patton has been ruled out (that's new). Remember, both their all conference CBs are out for the season, Cooper and Williams. Basically, the entire secondary is out (top 5 DBs)... going on the road to play a TCU team that does nothing but throw the ball, they're healthier, and they're coming off a bye week.

On the other side, Rocco Becht's a good QB. I don't expect Iowa State to be completely shut down. But TCU's gonna score and they're strong against the run. So it's only a matter of time before Iowa State's offense is forced into a one-dimensional attack.

This TCU team is very much still alive in the conference race. They still play BYU and Cincinnati after this.

I'm on TCU here. I bet it at -5.5.

KANSAS @ ARIZONA - 3:30 PM

Kansas having both RBs healthy is really gonna come in handy for this one. Daniel Hinshaw Jr. and Leshon Williams were both on the field at the same time last week and are both healthy coming into this one.

Now they played Oklahoma State... Arizona's defense is certainly a huge step up. But this is a defense that's struggled against the run recently, so I would imagine Kansas shouldn't have problems running the ball in this one.

Arizona blitzes a lot but Daniels has been excellent against the blitz this year. Kansas should score points in this game.

What makes this game tough is the other side of the ball. Kansas does not have a strong defense... but Arizona's offense has been so streaky and unreliable.

Kansas has been susceptible to big plays... so Arizona should be able to connect on a few.

This kind of gives us conflicting aspects. Because I think Kansas can sustain long, slow drives on the ground and hold onto the ball for a while.

I don't think this game should be able 3... maybe a 3.5. Kansas can run the ball... Kansas can score. Both teams are playing meaningful football games. I'd lean Kansas and over.

TEXAS A&M @ MISSOURI - 3:30 PM

Well I'm sure Eli Drinkwitz remembers this one.

Well if you're worried about this Texas A&M offense in a tough road game... look at their numbers in their road games so far this year.

I will say... this will be their toughest road test though in terms of defenses. Missouri really made a statement in that Vanderbilt game. They also played a great defensive game against Alabama. Also RB Rueben Owens being banged up concerns me. He's expected to be available... but remember this is a team that's already missing their star RB Le'Veon Moss.

The marquee matchup is Texas A&M's offensive line against Missouri's pass rush and this is definitely a concern... because Marcel Reed does have a tendency to hold onto the football. So far in SEC play, he's had plenty of time to work back there. That might not be the case against this Missouri pass rush.

This is huge... because it's very possible that Texas A&M struggles to run the ball in this game. We've seen a few games where the rushing numbers don't look excellent.

We just saw this Missouri defense go on the road to Vanderbilt, which is one of the toughest offenses in College Football to keep off the field. They did exactly that... continuously got them off the field all game.

Now Missouri has been a bit susceptible to explosive plays so far this year... so Marcel Reed should have some opportunities to hit a couple HRs in this game. But as far as consistently running the ball and consistently providing him clean pockets to throw from? I'm really not sure.

On the other side of the ball, Missouri's gonna be in a situation. Now Texas A&M has given up some explosive plays on the ground... and Missouri might have the best RB in the country in Ahmad Hardy. So you might think Missouri should run the ball on A&M without problems.

But what can we really expect with Freshman Matt Zollers at QB? Keep in mind, this is the 3rd string QB. Beau Pribula was competing for the starting job in camp with Sam Horn. Sam Horn got injured and is out for the year. So Matt Zollers is actually the 3rd string QB. Missouri might also be without their TE Brett Norfleet. He left the Vanderbilt game injured. The C Connor Tollison is also listed as questionable although it looks like he's gonna play. “It’s not really the full playbook, it’s about playing to what his strengths are,” Drinkwitz said

He's gotta deal with the Texas A&M pass rush. Matt Zollers has 5 career dropbacks under pressure. He's 2/5 with 15 yards and a fumble.

Texas A&M's defense is fully healthy. I know they gave up 25 points in the LSU game but that final score is misleading. They were elite defensively in that game.

Missouri's run game and defense should keep this from getting ugly... so I'm not laying the points. I don't hate an UNDER at 48.5 though.

AUBURN @ VANDERBILT - 4 PM

Well as I'm sure you heard... Hugh Freeze is gone. Being held to 3 points at home by the worst team in the SEC will certainly put the nail in the coffin.

DJ Durkin takes over as interim coach. He's the DC and the defense certainly hasn't been the problem for Auburn. In fact, Vanderbilt's offense might be in a situation here. On paper, Auburn's been arguably the best run defense in College Football.

And as good as Vanderbilt's offense has been, we've seen them struggle to run the ball in a few games now... including their last two.

Look at Auburn's defense against the run in the last 4 games. A few weeks ago, we all viewed Vanderbilt's offense as inevitable, and it still might be to some extent. But they certainly have looked mortal recently now that we've gotten into SEC play.

It's the other side of the ball... this is where I'm not sure how we can trust Auburn. It looks like Ashton Daniels is going to start at QB.

All Auburn can do offensively is run the ball. They've got a great offensive line... but this Vanderbilt defense has really done a good job against the run. Look at these opponents... now Vanderbilt didn't completely shut down all these teams on the ground, but they held their own.

We just saw Auburn's offense give us a historically poor performance last week. Now Kentucky has a good defensive front... Auburn's reliant on the run. It wasn't the best matchup ever for Auburn. But still... this is terrible. C Connor Lew is going to miss another game (his 3rd straight).

Both teams should be running the ball... Vanderbilt moves at a notoriously slow pace. I feel like the total's a bit high here at 45.5. I'd go under.

KENNESAW STATE @ NEW MEXICO STATE - 4 PM

So Kennesaw State was pretty fortunate in their last game. UTEP truly got robbed. UTEP should have had the ball down 6 with a chance to go down and win it. Instead, they gifted Kennesaw with an awful roughing the passer and an awful pass interference call to put them up two scores.

Now the good news is Amari Odom is fully healthy at QB. They were switching back and forth between him and Dexter Williams because he was banged up but he's expected to be QB1 now. The bad news is... this might not be the easiest matchup for Kennesaw State's offense. New Mexico State does one thing well... defend the run. It's unclear if NMSU will be getting their guys back yet. EDGE Ezra Christensen and LB Tyler Martinez have been injured. They're both listed as questionable.

Kennesaw State just played a home game against UTEP... who's actually kind of similar to New Mexico State in a sense that... they're not a good team, but they do one thing well... defend the run. This offense did not look good against UTEP.

The problem is... I just dk if we can trust the New Mexico State offense right now.

Kennesaw State's defense has played really well... they've look good against the pass. New Mexico State doesn't have much of a run game.

So I kinda think both offenses are gonna struggle here... but it's tough to take an under in what might be a fast-paced football game. Also both offenses have been known to rip off big plays.

I guess I'll go New Mexico State at +9.5 but there's no way I bet this.

WAKE FOREST @ VIRGINIA - 7 PM

I know they won one of them... but Wake's offense the last two games has looked unbelievably bad.

So even though I don't believe the Virginia DEfense to be anything incredible, I do think it's irresponsible to expect much offense out of Wake. Virginia is a step down defensively from SMU and Florida State... but Wake might be that bad. TE Eni Falayi is most likely not gonna be back for this one. He missed the Florida State game and was needed.

Robby Ashford did not play well in the game... and HC Jake Dickert said they "need to evaluate the QB position on a week-to-week basis"... whatever that means.

Remember, Ashford was out Week 7 injured and Deshaun Purdue played.... it was arguably the best offensive game Wake Forest played all year.

Now this Virginia team has been hanging on by a thread. They kinda remind me of Tulane in a sense that... they're winning games but it feels like they shoulda lost every single week.

The Virginia defense has looked strong in their last two games against a couple of bad offenses. Wake Forest is most definitely a bad offense so I would imagine Virginia locks it down again.

It's the other side of the ball... this is where Wake Forest should be able to compete.

Does one bad game against a desperate Florida State team negate everything this defense has shown us up to this point?

The truth is... they're winning games.... but Virginia's offense hasn't looked very strong in a long time.

I'm on the under at 49.5. Virginia is not the 14th best team in the country.

STANFORD @ NORTH CAROLINA - 4:30 PM

This Stanford offense on the road is a really tough unit to have faith in. They took some hits to the offensive line early in the season... and now RB Micah Ford has been out (questionable for this one)... and there's just not much to like here.

It's actually a miracle that I only lost this bet by the hook. Stanford's offense was terrible against Pitt.

How can we expect them to go on the road and move the ball against this defense? North Carolina's been playing solid defense all year and it seems like they're really finding their groove right now.

The UNC pass rush has started to look good and Stanford's struggled to give Gulbranson time to throw all year.

It really comes down to the other side of the ball... can we count on UNC's offense to do anything? As I'm sure you're aware, this offense has been really bad for basically the entire season.

The question is... what do we do with this data point?

Stanford's run defense is decent at times... but they haven't shown much of a pass rush at all. So Gio Lopez should have opportunities.

And he was basically perfect from a clean pocket last week. He's coming off his best game of the season by an actual mile.

I ended up betting this. UNC -7.5.

AIR FORCE @ SAN JOSE STATE - 6 PM

Well right off the bat we know Air Force is going to get cooked through the air... because they get cooked through the air every week. And all San Jose State does is throw the ball. The did get DB Levi Brown back from injury last week... so maybe they're in slightly better shape. But this team has been the worst pass defense in the country by a good margin this year. So it's gonna take more than one player.

There's no reason to expect Air Force to make stops in this game. San Jose State's offense has looked much better at home all year. We've seen this team play two home conference games... Eget cooked in both. SJSU's been missing their top two RBs for weeks now and that's concerning but I'm not sure if it matters much in this matchup.

The question's gonna be... do we think San Jose State can stop Air Force? We know San Jose State's gonna score... are we going with San Jose State -5.5 or an over?

It's tough to say. We did see San Jose State try to defend the option once early in the season. They actually lost this game... but the defense was ok. They really gave the game away more than they lost it. But Central Michigan's offense isn't comparable to Air Force.

Since we've gotten into conference play, San Jose State's defense hasn't been that reliable... they've actually done a decent job against the run, but Air Force can throw the ball too.

I don't think SJSU can get Air Force off the field. So I guess I'll say over. But 66.5? No way.

FLORIDA STATE @ CLEMSON - 7 PM

Florida State's problem this year has not been moving the football. The offense has been moving the ball all season. The problem... is penalties... it's mental mistakes... it's turnovers. But in terms of raw offensive efficiency, Florida State's offense looks elite.

We saw everything cliquing last week against a Wake Forest defense that's been really strong this year. This offense is also healthier. Castellanos was on the injury report last week. He's off. WR Jayvan Boggs is questionable. He hasn't played since September. RB Gavin Sawhuk left the Wake Forest game injured. He's listed as probable.

This Clemson defense just can't catch a break. They play back to back games against SMU and Duke... probably the two most explosive offenses in the conference. Now they play Florida State, who on paper, is right up there with those programs.

What has Clemson's defense struggled most with this year? Explosive plays... against a Florida State offense that lives on explosive plays.

Can we count on them to make stops? Clemson's offense is such a tough unit to evaluate because they've dealt with so many injuries. Obviously Klubnik. Star WR Antonio Williams missed the first half of the season. He's back (142 yds and TD against Duke). They're still missing WR Bryant Wesco Jr. (out for season). OG Elyjah Thurmon is also out for the year. But LT Tristan Leigh is back and C Collin Sadler is back.

Last week against Duke was the first time they had the injured players all back at the same time... they went nuclear.

And Florida State's defense looked elite in their last two games. They played the two worst offenses in the ACC. Let's not forget how this defense was struggling when they saw some tougher competition.

I originally was leaning Clemson and I still do lean Clemson... but now I'm thinking over is the better look. We should see a fast-paced game. We should see some big plays.

OVER 56.5

CAL @ LOUISVILLE - 7 PM

This line is so inflated. First of all... Louisville needs to run the ball. Miller Moss hasn't shown us much in terms of a passing attack. This Louisville team runs the ball and plays elite defense. That's what this team is. Their star RB Isaac Brown is out (possibly for the season). Their RB2 Duke Watson is still hurt. There's a chance he comes back this week but it's not certain. They've also got injuries to their RB depth.

Cal's defense has struggled against the run... so Louisville is still gonna run the ball. But with such an injured RB room, Cal might be able to limit any big explosive plays on the ground.

Louisville steamrolled BC and VT on the ground... but let's not forget that this offense looked pretty stagnant in the previous 3 games.

On the other side of the ball, Louisville's gonna be dominant. Cal's offense isn't good and Louisville's defense is dominant.

I trust this Cal team on these cross country road trips. They played well in this last year. This year they beat BC in Boston. They went to Blacksburg and played VA Tech to OT. I'm on Cal +20.5.

NAVY @ NOTRE DAME - 7:30 PM

RAIN/SNOW???

Well plain and simple.... Navy's defense just can't get off the field. They can't cover anybody... they're not strong against the run. I'm not sure how they force a single punt in this game.

Notre Dame has arguably the best RB in the country... CJ Carr looks excellent. Navy's defense is in for a tough one. They need the weather to be as nasty as possible. Now Notre Dame does have some concerning injuries to the offensive line. LG Billy Schrauth is gonna miss another game. C Ashton Craig is gonna miss another game.

Those offensive linemen were both out last week at BC and it was a bit noticeable. But Navy's defense has been so bad, that I don't think it really matters here. If you've watched Navy play football this year, you'd agree that Notre Dame shouldn't have problems moving the ball in this game.

The question comes on the other side of the ball. Can Navy keep this offense rolling into South Bend?

The problem is... otre Dame's playing elite defensively right now and the strength of schedule isn't even comparable here.

Navy's offense has been an absolute powerhouse... but what's the best defense they've seen this year? North Texas is ok... who else?

Notre Dame's still gonna be missing DT Gabriel Rubio and CB Christian Gray might miss another game. So maybe there's a path to Navy's offense working. Although Navy was really strong offensively last year also... they played Notre Dame at MetLife and couldn't do much of anything. Now they're going to South Bend. Navy turned the ball over 6 times in this game though.

Depending on the weather, I think you gotta lay it here with Notre Dame. If the weather's real bad, I wouldn't wanna be on it though. If Notre Dame was 8-0, maybe I could see them taking it easy in the 2nd half but they need statement wins.

SAN DIEGO STATE @ HAWAII - 11 PM

San Diego State... aka the wagon.

After a slow start, Sean Lewis has this unit cruising. But QB Jayden Denegal is listed as questionable. If Bert Emanuel Jr. is the QB, that would really limit San Diego State's offense.

Now you might say "Kyle it doesn't matter. Hawaii's defense has been lit up recently"... and that is true. But look at the opponents. They've played some of the best offenses in the Mountain West. I actually think Hawaii can play a strong defensive game in this one. Dennis Thurman is gonna be aggressive against the run... Hawaii's done a decent job pressuring the passer.

On the other side of the ball, this is where it gets tough for Hawaii. San DIego State's got the best defense in the Mountain West Conference.

Here's the thing... Alejado is playing well right now... really well. He was hobbled earlier in the season.

Hawaii's offense is HUMMING right now. Yes... these defenses are not on San Diego State's level.... but I don't think we can sleep on this kid. He can sling it. SDSU LB Tano Letuli out for season again.

San Diego State's defense has been elite, don't get me wrong. But how many passing attacks have they seen? They've played a lot of games against some really bad offenses.