CFB Week 10 Saturday

Kyle Kirms
3 days ago
30 min read

DUKE @ CLEMSON - 12 PM

Clemson finally gets another shot. Clemson homecoming. They haven't lost a home game to Duke since 1980. They haven't lost back to back games against Duke since 1969-1970. Clemson has won 13 consecutive homecoming games. Clemson is 33-6 in the month of November under Dabo Swinney.

Perfect time for Klubnik to return because Duke's secondary has struggled all year. Klubnik probable. LT Tristan Leigh should be back. Wesco Jr. out for season. LG Collin Sadler is out. RG Elyjah Thurmon is still out. Duke CB Kimari Robinson is questionable and trending towards not playing. Remember, Duke is still missing S Terry Moore and LB Nick Morris.

Duke can pressure the QB.. but Klubnik's handled pressure pretty well this year. There should be plenty of opportunities for Clemson to connect on big plays through the air.

Duke has struggled with explosive plays all year.

On the other side of the ball, is Clemson capable of stopping this Duke offense?

Even in the loss to Georgia Tech, Mensah was still excellent.

Clemson's defensive line is gonna be the best Duke has seen so far this year... but Mensah's been elite against the blitz and elite under pressure.

This place is gonna be rocking for homecoming... but Mensah looked fine in his two road conference games.

The move's gotta be Duke +3.5 or over here. Klubnik's coming off an ankle injury so who knows if he's 100%.

PENN STATE @ OHIO STATE - 12 PM

Everyone knows the narrative. Penn State can't beat Ohio State... and it's true. But it actually has been profitable to bet Penn State against Ohio State in recent years.

This what the last time Penn State won an FBS game.

I gotta say... I think Penn State's struggles are being exaggerated based on the expectations entering the season. If you just listened to the narrative... read tweets... you'd think Penn State was just getting blown out every week. That's obviously not the case.

So can they keep the score respectable against Ohio State? Well obviously, we know the Buckeyes are a total powerhouse on both sides of the ball. But Penn State does have two of the best RBs in the country and they're getting LG Olaivavega Ioane back this week. Ohio State should be getting NB Lorenzo Styles Jr. back as well.

Penn State has running the ball.. this is against tough Big Ten defenses.

Now you might be thinking "oh well Kyle who cares? Ohio State's defense is elite"... and yeah they are. But what rushing attacks have they seen?

In fact, this was one of Texas' most efficient rushing games of the year.

Now Penn State might have a Freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer making his 2nd career start... on the road in Columbus. That's just insane. But I don't think it's crazy to say Penn State can run the ball in this game.

On the other side of the ball, of course this is gonna be a problem. Julian Sayin looks like an absolute problem. PSU is still missing LB Tony Rojas but they should be getting DE Zuriah Fisher back.

I'm not sure if Ohio State will be able to run the ball in this game. Penn State's defense has been vulnerable to the run recently but Ohio State hasn't been able to run the ball much at all.

Penn State can still pressure the passer... and they do it without sending extra rushers. Julian Sayin's been probably the best QB in College Football under pressure so far this year though.

Penn State's defense hasn't really been thrown on, (none of these offenses compare to Ohio State).

I think Ohio State's gonna have to work for points in this one. I think Penn State's run game can keep this from getting too ugly. Also... neither offense has produced many explosive plays... both defenses has been excellent at limiting them.

We should see a slow-paced game with not a ton of big plays.

Penn State +19.5 and UNDER 44.5.

ARMY @ AIR FORCE - 12 PM

Air Force had dominated Army for years... but the last 8 have been trending the opposite way.

Well we know this Air Force defense is terrible... but this might actually be a game they can play some defense. The glaring weakness has been the secondary. On paper, Air Force is the worst pass defense in the country... but Army doesn't throw the ball. Also, we don't know the status of Army RB Hayden Reed. He missed the Tulane game and it's not confirmed if he'll be playing.

Army's offense hasn't looked very strong... and without much of a passing threat, Air Force might actually be in position to play decent defense.

Air Force has really struggled with explosive plays... but Army doesn't produce any.

On the other side of the ball, we have the Air Force offense which is the best unit in this game. I don't necessarily love the matchup though... like Air Force, Army's weakness has been defending the pass. And like Army, Air Force doesn't throw the ball much... although they pose more of a threat through the air than Army does.

We've seen this Army defense really struggle to get off the field the last 3 times they've gone on the road... and that's exactly what Air Force does... stays on the field.

Air Force has consistently moved the chains and ripped off big plays.

Army's gonna do whatever they can to slow this game down and turn it into a traditional service academy battle... while Air Force would rather play in a shootout. So I very seriously doubt we'll see the same sort of high scoring game we've seen Air Force playing in.

I do think Air Force is the better team... to get them at -108 at home felt like a good bet. Army may have had success against Air Force in recent years but they haven't gone to Colorado Springs much. I'm pretty sure they've only won 1 or 2 games here ever.

UCF @ BAYLOR - 12 PM

I know the numbers on this side of the ball might make it look like UCF is gonna struggle to score... but you gotta keep in mind that a lot of UCF has a couple games with a backup and even 3rd string QB that might be skewing their offensive numbers a bit.

If you isolate UCF's offensive numbers to just the Tayven Jackson games, you can see there's a clear difference.

We saw Tayven Jackson return from injury for their last game and they picked up right where they left off. Not only is he back... but he also had a bye week to heal up. He's fully healthy and ready to go. UCF might also be getting their LT Paul Rubelt back from injury. He's probably the best player on that offensive line.

I know they've played some tough offenses... but this Baylor defense is pretty consistently giving up points.

I will say... Baylor's actually done a good job limiting big plays... which is what UCF does a lot of offensively. But they create zero havoc. UCF's offense should be able to operate pretty freely in this one.

On the other side, we've got a real battle. I can't believe how good this UCF defense has played this year. Shoutout to Scott Frost. BAY WR Kobe Prentice is most likely going to miss this game. He leads the team with 6 TD catches.

Here's the thing with UCF's defense. They've got great numbers on the year... but when you actually take a look, it doesn't look as impressive. What offenses have they seen?

If you split it up... it doesn't look like this UCF defense is nearly as good.

This is a really good Baylor offense. They're at home... They're coming off back to back losses. Aranda's coaching for his job at this point. I would imagine Baylor's offense cooks em up.

We should see a fast-paced football game with a lot of throwing.

I want to bet an over... the reason I'm hesitant is it's supposed to be a bit windy... and both defenses have been weirdly good at limiting big plays. So we could see some long sustained drives... maybe missed FGs. I think I'd go UCF at +3.5. I don't trust Baylor's defense enough to lay more than a FG. Plus... from what I'm reading... the Baylor fan base has checked out.

MIAMI @ SMU - 12 PM

I'm not sure if Miami fans necessarily got the bounce back performance they were looking for last week. Sure the final score looks good... but they were tied with Stanford 7-7 at halftime at home.

They better get it together because this is a serious matchup. SMU's defensive front got gutted from last season... it's really impressive how quickly they reloaded. They're one of the strongest run defenses in the country again despite losing the entire defensive line.

Miami's run game has been decently efficient... but not excellent. They couldn't run the ball at all on Louisville. They also struggled to run in the Florida State game. The way SMU's defense is playing, going on the road and running the ball in this game might be a challenge.

Carson Beck is gonna need to be great in this one. Now I know it's a little concerning that Miami has only played one road game all season... but Carson Beck is not a Freshman. This dude's played plenty of tough road games. So I'm not concerned about that. In fact, Carson Beck might be in a position to have himself a good game. SMU is still going to be missing CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson. EDGE Cameron Robertson is also listed as questionable (5 sacks and missed Wake game). And SMU's numbers against the pass may look decent on the year, but they've gotten thrown on every single time they played a good passing attack.

The question is on the other side of the ball. How healthy is Jennings? We've seen him limping in several games this year and there's constant talk of him playing through an injury. There is some good news. WR1 Romello Brinson ish listed as probable but now WR2 Jordan Hudson is on the report listed as questionable. RB2 Chris Johnson Jr. is also listed as probable (playing against his old team). Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor set to return for Miami. He missed the Stanford game and leads the team in sacks. 26.5 career sacks is the 2nd most in the entire country.

I will say... a healthy Kevin Jennings would be one of your top picks if you were looking for a QB who's equipped to deal with this Miami defense though. Excellent escapability. Handles the blitz well... handles pressure well.

To me, there's two paths to SMU competing in this game and I don't think either is necessarily crazy. Path 1: Carson Beck. I don't think he's gonna have run support. He will have opportunities to make throws... but in a game where he's gotta throw the ball to win? Let's not pretend like we've never seen Carson Beck throw terrible interceptions before. Path 2: Kevin Jennings goes full hero mode. We've seen it. 2nd half of the ACC Championship game against Clemson last year. He marched down the field 4 times to score and tie that game up.Two paths to a cover? Gimme SMU +10.5.

WEST VIRGINIA @ HOUSTON - 12 PM

On paper, this looks like a nightmare matchup for West Virginia's offense. Houston is doing a black-out to honor Kurt Hester, who passed away last week to cancer.

But let's give West Virginia some credit. They were just in a battle against a really good TCU team.

Did West Virginia find their QB? They went down 10-0. They punted the ball back to TCU in the 2nd quarter and it was looking like a blowout... but Fox started connecting on throws. I know this might not seem like an amazing game... but keep in mind, West Virginia hasn't had a successful game throwing the ball all season.

This Houston defense is strong... but they have been vulnerable to the pass. This has, by no means, been an elite defense.

This West Virginia offense has been so bad... and they're so injured. It's tough to count on them to do much. But they definitely showed some life last week... and it is Rich Rod calling the plays.

On the other side of the ball, we need to figure out if we're buying into Houston's recent offensive surge. Some injuries. LG Jason Brooks Jr. doubtful for Houston. WR Stephon Johnson is out for the year. RB2 Stacy Sneed might be back.

Conner Weigman has been dealing... remember this kid was a highly touted recruit by Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M. So we know he's got a high ceiling... he's been a bit of a disappointing career so far, but let's give him some credit. He seems to be playing his best football right now.

West Virginia did just do an amazing job against Josh Hoover... but that was at home in Morgantown. This defense hasn't been the same in their road games.

I don't trust West Virginia's defense on the road... but I actually think Rich Rod can find a way to get the ball in the endzone a couple times. We should see a decently fast-paced game.

I don't hate an over here... 48.5 is a big number for West Virginia though. That offense has been so bad.

VANDERBILT @ TEXAS - 12 PM

So the rumors are false.

Texas has somehow won 3 games in a row... it hasn't looked pretty. But 3 wins is 3 wins.

Big matchup... you gotta think whoever loses this one will be knocked out of the running for a possible SEC Championship appearence. Vanderbilt's first game @ Texas since 1903.

Last year was a sweat. Texas edged out a close one.

Well we know this is the battle right here. Vanderbilt's elite offense against Texas' elite defense.

Missouri showed us that this Vanderbilt offense is mortal. This was, by far, Vanderbilt's worst offensive game of the year.

But I'm gonna repeat what I said last week... what offenses has Texas seen this year? Serious question... what rushing attack has Texas played?

Also remember, this is a defense that's playing without its captain. Their starting S and leading tackler Michael Taafe missed the Miss State game and Blake Shapen just showed us that you can throw the ball on this Texas defense.

Vanderbilt was able to move the ball on Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It wasn't an offensive explosion but they were moving the chains. I would imagine they'll find a way to move the chains in this one also.

Texas offense played a solid game. Sark put his QB coach/CO-OC AJ Milwee up in the pressbox and apparently this helped? idk.

On the other side of the ball, we know Vanderbilt's defense is certainly not the strength of the team... but this Texas offense just hasn't worked at all. But obviously the lead story is QB Arch Manning. He's in concussion protocol and is listed as questionable. C Colt Hutson is most likely going to miss another game. They did get LG Connor Stroh back last week though. He missed two games.

Matthew Caldwell will get the start. He threw the game winning TD pass last week in Mississippi State. He had turnover problems last year though. He threw 8 interceptions amd fumbled 7 times.

The question is... how much of a downgrade is it? Arch Manning hasn't played particularly well... so you could say "well he can't be much worse than Arch Manning"... but the thing is... Arch Manning has been under a ton of pressure this year. If Caldwell's under the same pressure, I would imagine he'll struggle the same way Arch has.

Vanderbilt's done a solid job generating pressure. But Arch also had a tendency to hold onto the football. So maybe if Caldwell's able to get the ball out quickly, he'll have more success. Sark was praising him for learning the playbook quickly during camp. Vanderbilt EDGE Khordae Snydor left the Missouri game injured and is listed as questionable.

I'm really not sure if they're gonna give him any run support... Texas hasn't been able to run the ball since SEC play started at all and that includes the Mississippi State game. They averaged 2.25 YPC as a team in that game.

Texas defense will make this game competitive as hell... but when it comes down to it at the end, I trust Pavia to put his team in a position to win. I'm on Vanderbilt.

NAVY @ NORTH TEXAS - 12 PM

Huge game.

Right off the bat, we know this is a tough matchup for North Texas defensively. Navy is the most efficient rushing attack in the country this year on paper and North Texas' huge weakness on defense has been stopping the run.

Army's offense is not nearly as good as Navy's this year... they went into North Texas and ran for 387 yards.

And after getting off to a strong start, this North Texas defense hasn't looked as sharp recently... so we know Navy's gonna score points in this game.

But on the other side, how can we trust Navy to make stops? This secondary can't cover anybody.

This offense now has WR Miles Coleman back. They might be getting RB Makenzie McGill back.

Mestemaker threw for 608 yards last week. I'd say they're cliquing right now.

Navy actually played a decent defensive game against FAU. FAU scored 3 TDs in the 4th quarter to make it look worse. But this is still not a secondary we can trust.

I'm on the over at 65.5... I'd lean Navy if it ever hits 7. The team's won 10 games in a row and they're gonna move the football in this one.

LOUISVILLE @ VIRGINIA TECH - 3 PM

Louisville looks great... but there's a lot of teams playing well in the ACC right now. Georgia Tech's got a pretty easy end of schedule. The way it's shaping up, Louisville probably has to win out and go 7-1 in conference to have a shot at the ACC Championship game.

Trying to get a feel for the matchup on this side of the ball is tough. Cuz you look at the final scores of these Louisville games, and you'd think the offense is playing well... but the efficiency numbers don't look good at all.

They're averaging over 30 PPG in their last 4... but the success rate and EPA numbers aren't impressive at all... indicating they've gotten some favorable circumstances... maybe some really good field position and turnovers... to score those points.

And I have questions about the Virginia Tech defense as well. They got absolutely smoked by Georgia Tech... but the 3 games surrounding that one, they played some really solid defense. I think Virginia Tech's defense can play well here cuz I don't think Louisville's offense is very good. They're still missing S Quentin Reddish but he's been out since Week 3.

On the other side of the ball, this is where I really do believe in Louisville. This might be the best defense in the conference.

This is one of the best pass rushes in the country and Kyron Drones has a tendency to hold onto the football.

Louisville lost their starting LB and one of their main tacklers Stanquan Clark for the season back in Week 2 and it hasn't mattered. Look at the opponents in their last 4 games.

Virginia Tech has been running the ball very efficiently... but I very seriously doubt they're gonna be able to run the ball much on Louisville's defense. Nobody's been able to run the ball on these guys.

I know we've seen these teams play come high-scoring games this year... but I think both defenses can play well in this one. neither team runs a crazy pace.

I think 54.5 is high. Virginia Tech should really struggle to score here. I'd make this game closer to 51.5. Gimme under.

NEW MEXICO @ UNLV - 3 PM

UNLV is coming off quite the beatdown. They actually kept it competitive in the 1st half but Boise just smoked em in the 2nd half.

New Mexico coming off a huge win. The win against Nevada was expected... but Utah State is strong this year.

Now UNLV's defense is terrible so I think we all expect New Mexico to score points in this game. They might still be missing RG Richard Pearce though, a team captain.

It's tough to have any faith in UNLV's defense. We've seen them play two good games... Sam Houston State and Wyoming... other than that, it's been bad.

New Mexico's offense has had its ups and downs but we know Jack Layne can throw the ball. They just played a game against another questionable defense in Utah State and fully took advantage of it. They should have no problems moving the ball here.

On the other side of the ball though, we are talking about UNLV at home in the dome. This offense is definitely explosive. UNLV might be missing their leading WR Jaden Bradley, who's listed as questionable. He has 29 catches... the next highest on the team is the RB with 18.

I don't want to completely write New Mexico's defense off cuz they did play pretty well against Boise State and Utah State recently. Both are very strong offenses. They're also stronger against the run... UNLV's passing attack has been good but inconsistent.

This number shouldn't be higher than 3/3.5 max. It would be New Mexico at +4.5.o at +4.5.

MICHIGAN STATE @ MINNESOTA - 3:30 PM

I wanna give a special shoutout to Michigan State for the backdoor cover last week against Michigan.

Now I know this year's Minnesota team is bad... but all their embarrassing performances have been on the road. They're actually 5-0 at home and a couple of the wins were impressive.

I think Michigan State might actually be the better team. They have some weapons on offense... but the injuries to the offensive line are so noticeable. This is already an offensive line and Stanton Ramil ended up leaving the Michigan game injured. He's a gametime decision. Their offensive line is so injured that I'm not even sure who the starting 5 is supposed to be.

Michigan State is not gonna be able to run the ball in this game. Minnesota's not a very good team but one thing they do have is a strong defensive front. They can defend the run... especially at home in that building.

Now Minnesota has been vulnerable to the pass at times. Michigan State's offensive line is in bad shape, but the Minnesota pass rush hasn't been anything special and the secondary is beatable. So there might be opportunities for Chiles to make plays. It's just so hard to count on sustained drives from this offense with that offensive line.

Remember, Michigan State was moving the ball in the Indiana game. They were actually winning 10-7. They only punted twice in the entire game. They had a missed FG, a turnover on downs... they were moving the ball in that game. So it's not crazy to say Michigan State might score a bit but it's tough.

On the other side of the ball, I have no idea. Michigan State's defense is also injured. They mighta just lost arguably their best defensive player. MSU LB CO-CAPTAIN LEADING WACKLER JORDAN HALL QUESTIONABLE. DT Ben Roberts is listed as doubtful. Minnesota might be missing their star RB and arguably most important player on the team Darius Taylor. He left the Iowa game after 1 carry.

Both of these units are really struggling. How can we trust Michigan State's defense to make stops? But also... how can we trust Minnesota to move the ball? Especially if Darius Taylor isn't playing.

It feels weird to consider an under in a Michigan State game cuz the defense has been so bad... but we should see a slow-paced game and both offenses should struggle.

UNDER 44.5... I guess a slight lean towards Minnesota -3.5.

FRESNO STATE @ BOISE STATE - 3:30 PM

So Fresno State went with a QB change. Entz benched EJ Warner and went with Carson Conklin.... it didn't exactly go well. They got shutout at home.

The offense was bad.

Surprisingly, Fresno has beaten Boise State in back to back meetings.

Milk Can Rivalry. They play for an actual milk can. (Last week's rivalry was the Old Oil Can vs SDSU).

Boise State's defense has shown some vulnerabilities here and there... but this is a seriously tough environment for Carson Conklin to make his first career FBS road start. He does have experience though... he was the starting QB at Sacramento State last year.

We've seen Boise State's defense struggle a few times this year... all from offenses we perceive to be better than Fresno's current offense though.

Boise State's defense has 16 takeaways this season... but check this out. It seems like protecting the football is the key here for Fresno. Here's the problem, Fresno State's offense has 17 turnovers so far this year!

On the other side, Boise State's offense has been a bit disappointing this year and they're coming into this game hobbled. WR Chris Marshall has been ruled out and WR Ben Ford is out for the season. That's the two leading WRs!

Boise State's been struggling to run the ball.

FRESNO! +17.5

PITTSBURGH @ STANFORD - 3:30 PM

This Stanford team might be a little undervalued right now based on their schedule. This team has played 5 tough road games already. They've actually looked really strong in their home games. They're a perfect 3-0.

So when we're looking at some of Stanford's year long numbers, we have to keep in mind that this team has been flying all over the country playing tough road games.

If you just isolate Stanford's defensive numbers to their home games, they don't look nearly as bad. Now there are some injury concerns. S Jay Green missed the Miami game and is listed as questionable. He's 4th on the team in tackles. CB Collin Wright is listed as questionable. But there's injuries to Pittsburgh's offense as well. Leading WR Kenny Johnson got injured in the NC State game and is questionable. Star RB Desmond Reid is arguably the most important player on that offense and he got injured in the NC State game. He was seen in a walking boot. LT Jeff Persi will miss his 3rd straight game.

And on the other side, more injuries. Stanford star RB Micah Ford is questionable... but the two best players on Pitt's defense are LB Kyle Louis and LB Raheem Biles. Neither played last week and are both listed as questionable.

Same story on this side. Stanford's year long numbers look terrible, but if you isolate it to just their home games, they look pretty good.

I'll just cut right to the chase on this one. I bet Stanford +14.5. Pitt is the much better team, but you got a Freshman QB flying out to the west coast, possibly missing his two most important offensive weapons. You've got an injured defense. You're playing a team that's been lightyears better at home.

TEXAS TECH @ KANSAS STATE - 3:30 PM

Another huge game. Kansas State is nowhere near out of this.

Texas Tech has not had much success against this team. 8 straight losses. Their last win was in 2015 and their last win in Manhattan was 2008.

Will Hammond is out for the season but Behren Morton is set to return. So Texas Tech gets their QB back. This is still not gonna be a picnic though.

Kansas State's defense is playing well. They've been pretty solid all year. It was the offense that was sputtering earlier in the season. They just played back to back games against explosive offenses and really held them in check.

And we've got Behren Morton coming back from an injury. Remember, Behren Morton has shown us a pretty consistent pattern throughout his career. He's a beast at home in Lubbock... but on the road against tough defenses, we've seen him struggle. That's been the case again this year. What were his two worst games? His two road starts.

Texas Tech's road games were their 3 least efficient offensive games of the year. (Behren Morton played in two).

On the other side of the ball, we know this is a tough matchup for Kansas State. But remember, Texas Tech just lost arguably their best defensive lineman Skyler Gill-Howard for the season. Kansas State is gonna be missing star RB Dylan Edwards for another game.

Kansas State's offense looks much better since the bye week. Now it's important to point out that Texas Tech's defense will be their toughest test.

Avery Johnson looks like a completely different QB. Delivering throws from a clean pocket. The offensive line has done a good job keeping him protected. They've got both WRs, Jayce Brown and Jerand Bradley healthy and on the field at the same time.

Kansas State just looks so much stronger.

I don't think this number should be above 7. I'm on Kansas State +7.5.

DEALWARE @ LIBERTY - 3:30 PM

We need to know if Minicucci is gonna play. He left the Middle Tennessee game injured. Remember, he's already the backup QB. The starter got injured in the 1st quarter of Week 1. So if Minicucci is unable to play, we're looking at the 3rd string QB, Braden Streeter... who came in late last week and threw and interception that coulda cost em the game. Liberty's been vulnerable to the run this year, but Delaware's a passing offense and if they don't pose much of a threat through the air, they might be really easy to gameplan against.

Delaware has really struggled to run the ball recently.

Now the good news is Liberty just lost arguably their best defensive player in addition to the other injuries they've been dealing with. LB and leading tackler Joseph Carter is out for the season. They've already been missing S Brylan Green for the last 2 games and he won't be back. CB Elijah Hopkins got injured back in Week 3.

On the other side of the ball, this Delaware defense actually hasn't looked that bad recently. Remember, Liberty played a couple games without their QB and they were awful. It might be skewing the numbers a bit.

I know since Vasko has come back, the Liberty offense hasn't looked great... but UTEP and New Mexico State but have strong defensive fronts. Liberty's offense looked pretty efficient before Vasko got hurt back when they saw bad defenses that are more comparable to Delaware.

Delaware's defense is most likely still missing LB Dillon Trainer. They've done a decent job against the run but going on the road against a healthier Liberty team that has an 8 day rest advantage, I think Liberty can move the ball in this one.

If Minicucci is playing, I'd go over 51.5 in this one. In Minicucci isn't playing, I'd definitely take Liberty -3.5.

GEORGIA VS FLORIDA - 3:30 PM

The "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" has certainly been more enjoyable for Georgia in recent years. Interim head coach Billy Gonzales has quite the matchup for his debut.

We know the strength of this Florida team is the defense. They're still gonna be without CB Dijon Johnson and DT Caleb Banks... but even without those guys, Florida's been very strong on this side of the ball. The question is... can they slow down Georgia's offense? Georgia's gonna be missing WR Colbie Young (may be out for the season). But they got Earnest Greene back on the offensive line which is huge.

Florida's defense has played well... but the only offense on this list that is on Georgia's level is Texas A&M.

Florida's defensive numbers in that game don't look so great. That was on the road at Kyle Field though. This game's obviously at a neutral site.

Florida doesn't have the best looking pass rush numbers either. They blitz a lot... Gunner Stockton's been elite against the blitz. I like this Florida defense but I don't think they can keep Georgia from scoring in this game.

On the other side of the ball... this is the question. Can Florida score points right back? Cuz this Georgia secondary has been getting carved up. Georgia is also missing their starting safety Kyron Jones for another game.

Every time they've seen a good offense, they couldn't make stops.

Look at their numbers against the pass in those 3 games.

This is not the same elite Georgia pass rush we've seen over the years. DJ Lagway should have clean pockets to throw from. The question is... does he make the throws?

Not only has Lagway been better recently, but interim HC Billy Gonzales said they wanna open the playbook more and spread the ball out and get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. WR Vernell Brown is out... but Dallas Wilson and Eugene Wilson are both big time playmakers that should have opportunities to hit home runs against a Georgia defense that can't stop giving up big plays.

I think we're gonna see points... I don't like how neither of these teams play a fast pace though. 50.5 is a big number.

I'll take over 50.5 but I'm not sure if this has any edge.

OKLAHOMA STATE @ KANSAS - 4 PM

Starting QB Hejny is still out and has been out since Week 1. But the backup QB Zane Flores is expected to return for this one. RG Noah McKinney might be returning also. He's missed the last two games. (He also just visited Kentucky about a possible transfer though so who knows?)

Oklahoma State's offense is terrible... but Kansas' defense hasn't been making stops for a couple months now. So if Zane Flores plays, I would imagine OK State is able to get into the endzone a couple times.

It's tough to make a case for Oklahoma State making stops here. Kansas might be missing RB Leshon Wiliams again though. He returned last week but only had 2 carries. Daniel Hinshaw Jr. has looked fine though.

Kansas is coming off back to back bad offensive games, which is uncharacteristic. Those games were against Texas Tech and Kansas State though... defenses that don't even belong in the same sentence as Oklahoma State.

Kansas is out of the Big 12 race... they can't afford to play around with this one. If they somehow lose this game, they're in serious jeopardy of not making a bowl game with this remaining schedule.

I don't think Kansas' defense is good enough to lay this big of a number. But Doug Meacham has straight out come out and said they're playing some younger guys and preserving redshirts. This team has long packed it in. I guess over 55.5.

MISSISSIPPI STATE @ ARKANSAS - 4 PM

Both these teams are coming off heartbreakers. Mississippi State has now lost 16 consecutive SEC games. They've lost 4 in a row after starting 0-4... and they've blown leads in their last two.

We know Mississippi State's gonna score points because Arkansas' defense can't even spell stop. RB Fluff Bothwell may be back. Arkansas DT Cam Ball is expected to return.

We were curious to see how Arkansas' defense looked last week. They finally played a game that wasn't against an elite offense. They still allowed 33 points and couldn't get off the field. I will say... it was the best defensive game they've played in a while and Taylen Green repeatedly gifting Auburn the football in great field position definitely didn't help them.

Now Mississippi State's offense is kind of in a similar situation. This offense finally gets to play a game that isn't against an elite defense. Maybe Arkansas' defense is a little bit under-valued from playing such an insane schedule... but you can kinda make the same points about Miss State's offense so I think we can expect the Bulldogs to put points up in this one.

On the other side of the ball, you'd think Arkansas should have no problems scoring points on Mississippi State's defense, although I'm a little concerned about Taylen Green's knee injury. I didn't even know he had a knee injury... but he apparently was limited in practice before the Auburn game and only had 14 yards rushing which was by far his lowest of the season.

This defense has gotten scored on pretty consistently since they got into conference play. They actually looked pretty strong in the Texas game for about 3 quarters.

So does Taylen Green bounce back here? Last week was a rough one. 4 interceptions... 3 of them in the 4th quarter including a pick six that gave the lead away. There were some people in Arkansas media calling for him to get benched.

I think everything points to a shootout here. I'd go over. I'd lean Mississippi State at +4.5 but Arkansas should score easily in this game.

VIRGINIA @ CALIFORNIA - 3:45 PM

Virginia Cavaliers sitting on top of the ACC. They've been hanging on by a thread. 3 straight overtime wins in conference games... but here we are.

We know Cal's probably not gonna run the ball in this game... because Cal never runs the ball. They're also missing their RB2 and RB3 out with injury. So Cal isn't really equipped to exploit what Virginia's struggled with at time this year.

Sagapolutele can throw it... but Virginia's done a solid job pressuring the passer this year and they've actually played great defense against the pass in 3 straight games. They've really only struggled against the pass once or twice this whole season.

Keep in mind... Cal may have played back to back competitive games... but the offense really hasn't looked good. I know it's a cross country flight here for Virginia but Cal's flying back from Virginia Tech themselves. I think Virgnia can play a good defensive game here.

On the other side of the ball, this is where I think the edge swings over to the Cal side. Virginia's offense hasn't looked nearly as strong recently and Wilcox is still a great defensive coach. Cal's a bit thin at safety with Manutai going down with injury but Virginia's really struggling to move the ball.

Virginia's offense is healthier. Slot WR Cam Ross is on track to return and C Brady Wilson came back last week... but the truth is this offense just flat out doesn't look good. Chandler Morris is dealing with a shoulder injury. The run game kinda disappeared... the passing attack was never very efficient.

It's tough to consider an under... both these teams move at a quick pace. Cal throws the ball a lot. Not exactly the formula for an under. But I think we're gonna see a lot of defensive stops in this one.

I think this game stays under the total but the pace scares me. I also think Virginia's string of luck could come to an end here. UNDER 52.5 and Cal +6.

ARIZONA @ COLORADO - 7 PM

Such Extremities from Colorado... they give us the huge win against Iowa State. Yes they got an extremely favorable no P.I. call that helped them with it... but still a huge win. They follow it up by getting absolutely dusted by Utah's backup QB.

Arizona is not a run-first offense... but I still think they can run the ball n this Colorado defense. In fact, they can probably throw the ball also. Colorado played a couple decent defensive games early on but it's really been downhill for this unit.

Even if you take out the 50 point loss to Utah so it doesn't skew the numbers, this defense still doesn't look good. They're also dealing with serious injuries. CB Makari Vickers is going to miss another game. EDGE Alexander McPherson got hurt in the Utah game and he's out. DT Amari McNeil is doubtful.

Arizona's in almost the complete opposite situation. They're pretty much fully healthy. They're coming off a bye week... and the offense seems to be coming around. Fifita looked really sharp in that Houston game.

And on the other side of the ball, just more bad news for Colorado. OG Xavier Hill is out. That's one of their best offensive lineman. Arizona's defense has been surprisingly pretty good this year... and healthy.

Now Salter does seem to be coming around a little bit as far as throwing the ball... but Arizona blitzes a lot and he's really struggled with pressure and has a tendency to hold onto the football.

I really wanna bet Arizona in this game but laying 4 on the road is just a bit too expensive. It reminds me a lot of the Iowa State game... I lost that bet. But Iowa State was the better team in that one.

I think Arizona is the play but I can't do it with Colorado coming off that blowout loss.

WYOMING @ SAN DIEGO STATE - 7 PM

We might see a defensive game here. Both these teams are coming off shutout victories (first time in Mountain West history). San Diego State's was a bit more impressive... a road game against Fresno. Colorado State's offense has been a mess for most of the season.

I don't know how we can expect Wyoming to score points in this one.

San Diego State is allowing 10.4 PPG this season. They're even healthier. LB Tano Letuli returned from injury after missing a couple games. He had a pick six in his first game back.

Sawvel tried to shake things up offensively and demoted the OC. He gave playcalling duties to Jovon Bouknight... they scored 28 points but I'm not sure I'd go as far to say it was better. They scored a TD to go up 28-0 with 11 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter. There wasn't another point scored in the game.

San Diego State's been generating consistent pressure all year without blitzing. They've played elite defense at home all year. I don't think we can rely on Wyoming putting a big number up.

We haven't really seen Wyoming in a harsh road environment this year outside of Colorado. Their other road games were Akron and Air Force... two terrible defenses.

On the other side of the ball, we've got a closer battle. The Wyoming defense has been pretty good this year. There are a couple concerns though. First one being injuries: CB Dainsus Miller will miss this game (first missed game of the year). One of their other CBs Markie Grant is wearing a cast on one of his hands. DT Aneesh Vyas might miss his 2nd straight game. He's listed as questionable. The second concern is... San Diego State's offense has caught fire.

Wyoming's defense has been strong and this is where it gets challenging. I faded Wyoming in the Air Force game and they actually played a solid defensive game there. They backdoor covered. SDSU WR Jacob Bostick might miss his 2nd straight game.

SDSU HOMECOMING. First home game in 29 days. I think the way to go here is SDSU -10.5 or UNDER 42.5.

WAKE FOREST @ FLORIDA STATE - 7:30 PM

How is this happening again? 9 straight ACC losses? How is that even possible?

Meanwhile, Wake Forest is on almost the complete opposite trajectory. This team's 3-1 in their last 4 including a huge upset win over SMU. The only loss was an OT loss to Georgia Tech, who might be the strongest team in the ACC.

With Castellanos questionable, we've got a real battle on this side of the ball.

If we had any doubts about this new defensive Wake Forest team, they put em to rest last week. They completely shut SMU's offense down.

It's not that Florida State's offense has been bad during this losing streak, but it hasn't been excellent either. The losses are more due to turnovers and penalties.

On the other side of the ball, I'm not sure how we can count on Wake Forest to move the ball.

WAKE +10.5

OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE - 7:30 PM

I can't decide which unit is worse... the Oklahoma offense is the Tennessee defense. Both are very injured. Oklahoma is going to be playing this game without Troy Everett, Jacob Sexton, Jake Taylor and most likely Derek Simmons. That's five offensive linemen. They are getting OL Logan Howland back though. Tennessee's been missing heir two main corners all season. LB and leading tackler Arion Carter is also listed as questionable.

Tennessee has played some explosive offenses... but they were struggling to make stops against Kentucky last week. I've said multiple times that I don't think Oklahoma's offense is good. I think Tennessee's defense might be worse.

But at the same time, Oklahoma was struggling to move the chains against Ole Miss. Towards the end of the 3rd quarter, Oklahoma had 13 points in that game.

What about Oklahoma's defense? Can they top Tennessee's elite offense?

I will say... Oklahoma's defense played a lot better than the final score shows. Ole Miss wasn't marching up and down the field in that game... they did move the ball but it wasn't an offensive explosion.

But what I was saying about Trinidad Chambliss last week, you can say the exact same thing for Aguilar. Elite numbers against the blitz. Elite numbers under pressure. And this one's on the road in Knoxville.

I will say... we have seen Tennessee have some problems though. Week 8 against Alabama's defense. Aguilar did not play very well at all... and Oklahoma's defense is getting their CB Gentry back and LB Kobie McKinzie should also be back. He left the Ole Miss game early.

I can't believe I'm saying this... but I think this number should be 1.5/2... so at a full 3, it's Oklahoma for me.

CINCINNATI @ UTAH - 10:15 PM

Utah got back on track in a major way after dropping the BYU game.

Because Utah took that Texas Tech loss earlier, they're now in a position where they're playing for their season. Cincinnati is still unbeaten in conference. College Gameday.

If you wanna beat Cincinnati, you're gonna have to figure out a way to slow this offense down. Cincinnati is going to be without their star RB Evan Pryor for this one. He got injured in the Baylor game and has been ruled out.

The marquee matchup on this side of the ball is gonna be Utah's pass rush. Cincinnati's offensive line has done a great job protecting Sorsby so far this year. He's only been sacked two times all season and is one of the least pressured QB in the entire country. But Cincinnati hasn't seen a pass rush that even comes close to Utah's. DT Dallas Vakalahi missed last week's game for Utah and is listed as questionable.

This is really tough... cuz on one hand, Sorbsy been arguably the best QB in the country. He's absolutely cooking from a clean pocket. He's handling pressure well. He's truly been excellent. But look at the defenses. Now he goes to Rice-Eccles.

As far as run support... I'm not sure. Cincinnati's been extremely efficient running the ball also... against questionable defenses. But Utah's defense hasn't exactly been elite against the run. We saw several teams running the ball a bit on Utah.

On the other side of the ball, obviously the QB situation for Utah is a question.

I know some people are thinking "oh it doesn't matter... this Utah offense is fine with Ficklin". I disagree. They scored 53 points but that's not exactly an accurate depiction of how the offense played. 21 points came on three huge plays. They got stopped a bunch of times. They kept getting gifted amazing field position.

Look at the passing numbers in the game. You mean to tell me this isn't a huge advantage for Cincinnati if they know Utah doesn't pose much of a threat through the air?

Cincinatti's defense actually has decent numbers against the pass. They've had problems against the run. If they're able to load the box and trust their secondary, they might be able to generate some stops.

And those big plays they ripped on Colorado? I'm not sure if Utah can rely on em in this one. Cincinnati's defense hasn't been great but they have done a solid job limiting explosives.