CFB Saturday Week 5

Kyle Kirms
Sep 26
42 min read

BOWLING GREEN @ OHIO - 12 PM

Ohio can't stop anybody... and I know you're probably thinkingtenne "yeah but who cares? They're playing Bowling Green?"

But I don't think you understand... Ohio really can't stop anybody. That MAC championship defense from last year is completely gone. They've played 1 good defensive game all season. It was a home game against West Virginia. They were struggling to make stops against Gardner-Webb. Over 8 YPP!

The good news is... Bowling Green's offense was terrible last week and the final score is misleading. They scored two long TDs late. Drew Pyne threw two bad interceptions in their own territory. These numbers make it look like Bowling Green was moving the ball on Louisville... they were most certainly not moving the ball. They broke a 75 yard TD and another 50 yard TD or something. Basically they added on 150 yards and 14 points in the last few minutes of the game to pad stats. They were doing nothing.

Drew Pyne played pretty well in the Cincinnati game and I happened to watch every snap of that one... I had some faith in this offense. But the truth is... they struggled to move the ball in the Liberty game... they struggled to move the ball in the opener against Lafayette. This offense just might not be good. So even though I don't think Ohio's defense is good at all, I actually think they could play a good defensive game.

On the other side of the ball, this is where Ohio should have the huge advantage. The defense isn't good... but Parker Navarro is back and looks to be picking up right where he left off last year. And this elite Bowling Green defense from 2024... it's completely gone. It might take Eddie George a year or two to get this Bowling Green defense back up.

We've seen Parker Navarro and this Ohio offense look pretty good in every game except for the road game in Columbus, which is understandable. BGSU LB DORIAN PRINGLE OUT FOR SEASON (HE WAS LEADING TACKLER). OHIO GUARD TRENT ALLEN LEFT GARDNER-WEBB GAME EARLY. UNSURE OF STATUS.

The thing is... it's tough to bet an over in what should be a really slow-paced football game.

I'm on Ohio -10.

NOTRE DAME @ ARKANSAS - 12 PM

We've got an Arkansas team coming off an absolute heartbreaker. If you didn't see it... Arkansas had the ball. They were literally just running the clock out to kick a game winning FG. They fumbled it at the Memphis 9 yard line to lose the game. All they had to do was kneel on it!

This Arkansas team pretty much has the same sort of numbers we were expecting so far this year... an absolutely explosive offense... a very limited defense.

They actually got off to a solid start defensively... but they came crashing down to earth hard in the last two games when they started seeing decent competition.

Now one thing Arkansas has done consistently all season is pressure the passer. Even in the Ole Miss and Memphis games, the pressure numbers look good. Here's the thing, not only has CJ Carr gotten the ball out quickly all season... but he's also got excellent looking numbers under pressure this year. So you would think... tough road environment against an SEC opponent. But based on these numbers, CJ Carr might be in decent shape.

Remember, he wasn't that bad in the Miami loss. Notre Dame couldn't run the ball and the defense couldn't stop Miami at all... considering it was CJ Carr's first road start and it was against a Miami team that we're learning is really strong, I actually thought he played pretty well.

And he seems to be getting better as the year progresses. Notre Dame certainly has their problems... but the concerns with Notre Dame are mostly on the other side of the ball. In terms of CJ Carr... he looks good.

Considering this is a defense that can't seem to generate stops against anyone legitimate... and considering Arkansas is most likely going to be without their main corner again, I'd say Notre Dame should have zero problems scoring points in this game.

Now on the other side, this is where things start to look dark for Notre Dame.

This Notre Dame defense does not look good.

They're really struggling to stop the pass. After the first two games, we gave em a pass... ok they're getting thrown on... but they played Miami and Texas A&M. So maybe they just played elite competition. But then we saw Purdue slinging the ball all over the field on this defense and now I really think we need to be concerned.

Notre Dame needs Leonard Moore back in the worst way. He didn't play in the Purdue game and it was noticeable... Purdue was piecing this defense up.

Keep in mind... this Arkansas offense has gone absolutely nuclear in every game so far this year. And unlike the defense, it hasn't slowed down. They were explosive in both the Ole Miss and Memphis games... both games were on the road.

So how can we trust this Notre Dame defense? Well for one... Taylen Green has held onto the ball a lot this year and he's been fortunate enough to not see much pressure. I know Notre Dame's pass rush numbers but they seem to be improving a bit. They didn't get anywhere close to Carson Beck... they actually were creating a lot of pressure in the TAMU and Purdue games. The QBs were able to make some plays... Taylen Green hasn't been great when pressured so far this year.

I know trusting Notre Dame's defense seems nuts... on the road against a high powered offense like Arkansas... but I think they're going to make Taylen Green uncomfortable. They're not gonna shut this offense down... but it only takes a couple stops to get out to a lead and force Arkansas to play from behind. I like the Irish here. If Leonard Moore plays, I'll take Notre Dame -5.5.

LOUISVILLE @ PITTSBURGH - 12 PM

Tough road environment for Miller Moss here. He's not off to the best start to this season and he really hasn't seen the toughest competition. James Madison is strong... but that was a home game against a Sun Belt opponent.

This could be a problem... so far this season, Louisville's been extremely reliant on the run. Which is ok because they've got a solid offensive line and a superstar RB in Isaac Brown. We could have some problems... #1 being that we're not sure if Isaac Brown is gonna play in this game. He left the BGSU game early and is listed as questionable... and their other RB, Duke Watson, missed last week entirely and is also listed as questionable.

So we're talking about Miller Moss... who hasn't looked good against easier competition... now going on the road for a road conference game... missing RBs... against this Pitt defensive front? Pittsburgh had an elite run defense last year... they brought back a ton of production on the defense, specifically in the front 7. And so far this year, they're picking up right where they left off last year.

So I'm not sure Miller Moss has shown us he can go on the road... against a good defense.. with possibly no run support... and win a football game. That being said, there is some hope for the Louisville offense. Pitt lost their 3rd and 4th LBs before the season... out for the year. The main two are healthy but they're a bit thin at LB. They're also dealing with injuries at corner. Two of their top 3 corners are listed as questionable.

The thing is... even if Pitt is missing a couple corners, do you trust Miller Moss to make throws in this building? He was struggling in home games against Eastern Kentucky and James Madison. If Louisville can't run the ball, this could be a tough matchup for that offense.

On the other side, this is where the matchup gets interesting.

We've only seen Pitt's offense tested once... on the road in Morgantown... and honestly, I don't care if you think West Virginia's a bad football team this year. That defense has looked pretty solid and that environment was crazy. This was definitely a really tough game for the Pitt offense... and they struggled.

They blitzed a lot and were able to put a ton of pressure on Holstein... it certainly was not his best game. They couldn't run the ball at all. It was just an overall bad game for the Pittsburgh offense.

They're matched up against a very good Louisville defense who's looked pretty flawless so far this year. They haven't really been tested... all 3 games at home and James Madison is the only respectable opponent though.

I really like how Pitt's at home, coming off a loss and a bye week. I really think that puts this offense in a good spot. Their star RB Desmond Reid has a week to rest... he was dealing with an injury heading into the West Virginia game. Louisville has struggled in this building the last few trips.

I don't trust Miller Moss and I like the spot for Pittsburgh. I have this at 2.5/3. Gimme Pittsburgh +4.5.

DUKE @ SYRACUSE - 12 PM

Well the first thing that jumps out at me here is over. We've got too extremely fast-paced teams and that do nothing but throw the ball. How is this not a blind over?

Syracuse defense doesn't have great looking numbers at all. On paper, Duke shouldn't have problems scoring points in this game.

Even in the Clemson game, the defense wasn't particularly excellent. It was a huge win.. and they had a few red zone stands and made some plays to stall drives. But Clemson was moving the ball.

The Duke offense has not been a problem. Here's their last 3 games... all against respectable opponents. They lost 2 of these games but it certainly wasn't on the offense. This unit looks pretty explosive. I do think Syracuse' defense will improve as the year goes on... but this Duke offense is pretty good and I don't think we can count on a lockdown defensive performance.

On the other side of the ball, this is where it gets interesting. Duke has shown us that this defense is vulnerable... and now they lose starting LB Nick Morris Jr. for the season. He just got injured last week in the NC State game.

In the last 3 games, they've gotten cooked through the air... despite the defensive line generating consistent pressure. They just can't seem to cover anybody.

So you would think... this is a beautiful matchup for Syracuse. At home against a defense struggling to defend the pass. The problem is... QB Steve Angeli is out for the season.

Now Rickie Collins was originally supposed to be the starter. We didn't find out Angeli had won the starting job until Fall camp. So it's not like this is just some backup QB... up until August, we thought this guy was gonna be the starter. He's originally an LSU recruit. He's a better athlete than Angeli. I am not sure how much of a dropoff his is. He didn't look excellent last week... but he came in midway through the game and he was on the road against Clemson. He came in late in the 3rd quarter and actually threw a TD on his 2nd pass attempt.

Now I gotta say.. Duke's defensive line is good. They've consistently generated pressure. Angeli was doing a pretty good job handling the pressure... Is Rickie Collins able to handle it also? It's tough to say... I do know that I believe in Jeff Nixon as a playcaller and the way Duke's been playing defense, I'm not sure I can lay a big number on the road. I'd make this game Syracuse +3.5 and 61.5.

GEORGIA TECH @ WAKE FOREST - 12 PM

So let's give Wake Forest some credit. They've played some defense this year.

Even in the NC State game they lost, the defense played well. The problem was the offense just never came out of the tunnel at halftime. They were moving the ball up and down the field in the 1st half. They didn't do anything in the 2nd half. The defense was pretty solid though... and we know NC State can score.

It's still not a huge sample because they haven't seen much competition, but it seems like Dickert definitely has Wake playing better defense than last year already. That being said, this is definitely going to be a huge step up in competition. Not only is Georgia Tech the best team Wake has seen so far this year... but they also haven't seen a rushing attack. Georgia Tech has one of the most dynamic run games in the country. WAKE Safety - RUSHAUN TONGUE IS OFFICIALLY OUT FOR THE SEASON.

Wake's defense is definitely more physical than the last few years... but considering this is a conference game and Georgia Tech has a bye week after this, I don't see any way they're able to stop em from running the ball between the tackles all game.

On the other side of the ball, do we think Wake Forest is able to move the ball? Based on these numbers, I'd say no probably not.

They marched right up and down the field early in that NC State game and then looked so bad in the 2nd half. They're matched up against a Georgia Tech defense that's been solid. Robby Ashford hasn't been very efficient throwing the ball and this will be the toughest defense they've seen by a large margin.

Clemson was able to run the ball on Georgia Tech... and Wake Forest does actually have a decent rushing attack. Remember, Dickert brought 3 starters on the offensive line over from Washington State with him. And they brought Claiborne back at RB... all ACC last year. So Wake might be able to run the ball a bit in this game.

But with inconsistent QB play... they will most likely struggle to sustain drives. I have this one at 13.5... so I guess there's a slight lean to Wake Forest at +14 but nothing really there. I wouldn't be mad at an under though. Georgia Tech likes to hand the ball off and run a really slow pace. There were some explosive plays in the Temple game that blew that final score up. I'd say Wake +14 but if I had to place a bet in the game, it would probably be UNDER 52.5.

RUTGERS @ MINNESOTA - 12 PM

This Rutgers offense is explosive man. They were moving the ball on prime time against Iowa's defense. This is going to be quite the test... on the road against a very strong Minnesota defense coming off a bye week. Having a healthy Ian Strong on the field is a huge boost,

The thing about Minnesota's defense... they might have one of the toughest defensive front 7's in the country. They brought back a ton of production in that department and PJ Fleck has always given us physical defenses. I don't believe there are many teams out there that can run the ball on the Gophers. Even if RB Samuel Brown does play for Rutgers (unsure about that), I still don't expect Rutgers to run the ball here. RB CJ Campbell Jr. will miss another game as well.

The problem is... in terms of defending the pass, Minnesota lost its edge rushers and main two corners from last year's team. So as strong as I think the run defense is, they might have problems against good passing attacks this season... especially early on.

And what happened the first time Minnesota saw a decent QB? They lost by two scores.

So is Kaliakmanis about to go on a revenge tour here? Remember, he comes from Minnesota... and honestly, I just can't see it. He was completing passes in the 1st half against Iowa... but it completely fell apart in the 2nd half and his numbers at the end of the game do not look great.

On the other side, I don't trust Minnesota's offense at all.

They laid an absolute egg against Cal... RB DARIUS TAYLOR DID NOT PLAY IN THIS GAME... and honestly, that was on the road on the west coast. We've seen Big Ten teams struggling with that kind of trip the last few years. Also... Wilcox is an excellent defensive coach. It was a terrible offensive game... but it was also a really tough spot for PJ Fleck to go in with a RS-Freshman playing QB.

I think they'll move the ball just fine in this one... we're back at home against a Rutgers defense that absolutely cannot stop anybody. They're terrible against the run. Minnesota's got a pretty strong offensive line and a possible NFL talent at RB. I don't really trust Drake Lindsey at QB but this should be a very easy game for him. RB DARIUS TAYLOR QUESTIONABLE. RB2 AJ TURNER ALSO QUESTIONABLE.

Minnesota should have no problem running the ball all game (if the RBs are healthy). They should sustain long drives. Kaliakmanis and those Rutgers WRs will make some plays but he's also bound to make a big mistake. I make this game 7 if Minnesota's healthy... with the injuries, I wouldn't be mad at an UNDER at 51.5.

CINCINNATI @ KANSAS - 12 PM

I had one major concern with this Kansas team entering the season... the secondary. They've been fortunate.. they haven't seen many explosive offenses this year. The only real challenge was Missouri and they gave up 42 points in that game.

Good news for Kansas though... LB Joseph Sipp Jr. is finally cleared. He only played 9 snaps in the West Virginia game but that was his first action all season. Between him, LB Kamara and CB DJ Graham, it seems like all the injury concerns we had with this defense early in the season are gone. But that doesn't change the fact that I don't think this secondary is that good. And after a slow start against Nebraska in the opener, Sorsby seems to have found his groove with his new WRs.

After seeing what Beau Pribula did to Kansas a couple weeks back, I have faith that Cincinnati can move the ball in this game.

On the other side of the ball though, I'm just not sure if Cincinnati's defense can hang around in this game. On the road against this offense is a really tough ask.

West Virginia's defense has been pretty tough so far this year... Kansas ripped them to shreds in this building last week. It was the hangover spot of all hangover spots right after the Backyard Brawl... but still, it was an absolute beatdown.

Now I don't want to just completely write Cincinnati's defense off. They brought back a lot of production on that side of the ball and so far this season, they are playing well.

But in that environment... when Jalon Daniels is healthy, there's just not many defenses I would count on to make stops. It's just too explosive. Which is why I took the over. I know the pace for Kansas is concerning.

Cincinnati hasn't shown us a pass rush this year and Jalon Daniels at home with clean pockets to work from... I'm not sure how many stops we'll see.

I'm on the over in this one. Got it at 54.5. I'd bet it up to 57.5.

SOUTH ALABAMA @ NORTH TEXAS - 12 PM

North Texas might just be a wagon... but has the market taken this too far? The defense is miles better than it was last year. But now they're playing a South Alabama offense that runs the football.

So far... that might play into the weakness of this North Texas team.

North Texas had elite defensive numbers... the first time they saw a half-decent offense, they were struggling to get off the field.

North Texas had elite defensive numbers... the first time they saw a half-decent offense, they were struggling to get off the field. Kentrell Bullock is a talented RB. This will be a good test for the North Texas defense... the defense looked great against bad teams... but if South Alabama is able to run the ball in this game, we might find out that this defense isn't quite as elite as we think.

On the other side of the ball though, this is where I'm just not sure how we can trust South Alabama.

This defensive front 7 is struggling. Against Auburn... ok... even against Tulane is fine. But to struggle against Coastal Carolina is just tough to unsee. Coastal looks like it might be one of the worst offenses in the country so far this year. They beat South Alabama by 3 scores.

But you could say... they've been struggling against the run and North Texas is an offense that wants to throw the ball with Drew Mestemaker. Looks like RB Kiefer Sibley will miss another game for North Texas.

I can't believe I'm considering fading the wagon that is North Texas... but this line is inflated. I had this game North Texas -2.5 at the start of the season. The market's moved it 10 points based on what we've seen so far. I understand why it's moved... but I personally would make the game 9.5. Gimme South Alabama.

UCF @ KANSAS STATE - 12 PM

I gotta say... one of the biggest takeaways for me last week was "Scott Frost is a much better coach than Bill Belichick". That's not really a "hot take"... I actually think most think he's a better head coach at the college level. So that part wasn't shocking... what was shocking to me was HOW MUCH better of a job he's done so far this season. In the opener, North Carolina had an excuse... TCU is returning most of the same team, the same QB, the same coaching staff.... it was their first game with a brand new everything. We cut UNC some slack for that one... but UCF also has a brand new coaching staff and brand new roster. This was an absolute slaughtering.

They had a really ugly opener against Jacksonville State that I just couldn't unsee. I should have taken more stock in the FCS blowout the following week. They absolutely dominated North Carolina on both sides of the ball. I need to issue a formal apology to Scott Frost.

Not that this is relevant... it's more just interesting. But Scott Frost has now won 16 consecutive games as the head coach of Central Florida.

Look... I still think Kansas State is the better team. But it's clear that there are problems on this offensive line and even when Avery Johnson has time to throw, he hasn't look good.

Now they are coming off a bye week... maybe this is the week the offense finally comes out and plays well. But with the WR Bradley out indefinitely and there's still questions about Dylan Edwards. How healthy is he? In addition to the offensive line and Avery Johnson struggling, they're also missing weapons. Based on what we've seen, it's really tough to have a ton of faith in the Kansas State offense right now.

I still do trust the Kansas State defense and when we're looking at these numbers, we need to keep in mind that Kansas State has played a MUCH stronger schedule than UCF has.

I'd be very surprised if UCF can walk into Manhattan and run the football on this defensive front. This should be a struggle for the UCF offense, but I gotta say Tayven Jackson has been extremely impressive. He looks comfortable as hell... he's handling pressure well. He's not putting the ball in harm's way. And this may be his first road start of this season, but this is not his first road start. He's not a Freshman... he started a couple games for Indiana. Actually in 2023, he started a game against Louisville and they fell 1 yard short of tying the game with 4 minutes left. They lost 21-14.

I took the +6.5... Kansas State's the better team. But UCF seems to be the more confident and better coached team.

USC @ ILLINOIS - 12 PM

So obviously, USC has looked absolutely electric on the offensive side of the ball so far this season. But we do have some injury concerns. Star WR Ja'Kobi Lane remains out indefinitely. He missed the Michigan State game. And now, they're starting LT Elijah Paige left the Michigan State game injured and his status is up in the air for this one. But the Illinois defense is in even worse shape. Their secondary got absolutely smoked in the Indiana game. All Big Ten CB Xavier Scott got injured in Week 3 and he'll be out for a while. Another starting CB is Kaleb Patterson and he left the Indiana game injured. He was seen on crutches and is expected to miss time. Another starting CB is Torrie Cox Jr. He left the Indiana game injured as well and is listed as questionable. Their starting safety and leading tackler Matthew Bailey suffered a concussion in the USC game and is in protocol. He's listed as questionable. Their other starting safety got ejected for targeting (he will be back). Keep in mind, this is a secondary that's already missing Jaheim Clarke... he hasn't played yet this year. So 5 of their top 6 DBs are out.

This is an Illinois defense that's gotten completely cooked both times they played P4 opponents. Remember, the only reason they beat Duke was the 5-0 turnover battle. Duke was moving the ball on Illinois without issues. So even though the USC offense might be a bit hobbled, this should be a favorable matchup for em.

The only hesitation I have... remember I was talking about this before the Purdue game. Where did we see USC struggle last season? Their true road Big Ten games. They were favored by more than a FG in all 3 of these games and lost all 3 outright.

We saw them play one of those games already this year @ Purdue. They controlled the game start to finish but Purdue did end up covering the number. So laying points on the road with USC in a true road Big Ten game isn't exactly something I'm thrilled about.

Now on the other side, Altmyer and the Illinois offense should definitely bounce back at home. That was a historically terrible game last week.

We've seen back to back Big Ten QBs making throws on this USC defense. USC won both games by two scores but they didn't cover the number in either. Coming off that ugly game, I expect Altmyer to put points up on USC.

So I completely understand why the total's so high... we probably won't see many stops in this game. The problem is... these aren't fast-paced teams. 59.5 is a crazy high total for teams that run slow paces.

As much as I'd love to take Illinois on a bounce back and fade USC in a Big Ten road game, I just dk how we can trust that Illinois secondary. It's completely decimated. It would only be USC -6.5. I'd probably make this game 7.5.

UTAH STATE @ VANDERBILT - 12:45 PM

Bronco Mendenhall has made me a believer... but on paper, this is a really tough matchup for him. Utah State's been struggling to stop the run. They're going on the road against a Vanderbilt rushing attack that basically looks unstoppable.

When you take a look at the game logs, it doesn't look quite as bad. Obviously, your run defense numbers are gonna take a hit when 2 of your 3 FBS games were against Air Force and Texas A&M. But that 51% success rate/rush is concerning... struggling to get off the field against the run. How are they gonna get off the field on the road against Diego Pavia?

The thing you can say for Utah State... is this is the look ahead spot of all look ahead spots. This isn't an ordinary year for Vanderbilt, their name is starting to be thrown around in SEC Championship conversations. Right after this, they go to Tuscaloosa for the big revenge game. That's the game of the year for Vanderbilt.

Also, Utah State might be getting their star safety back, Ike Larson. He's been suspended from the team and Bronco Mendenhall hinted that there was a chance he'd return for this game. Ike Mendenhall posted this on his Instagram... people are saying that means he's coming back. I'm not sure... I'm just repeating what people are saying.

And don't be surprised if Utah State is able to move the ball in this game. Barnes is a good physical runner at QB... Vanderbilt's defense has looked solid against the run so far but they really haven't seen a good rushing attack. They're saying Vanderbilt may be getting Issa Ouattara back at DT for this game. He's one of their best defensive players and he's barely played this year. But if I had a guess, they'll use him sparingly and the goal would be to have him ready for Alabama.

I know Vanderbilt's a wagon... but they've got Alabama on deck and Mendenhall's a really good head coach. Utah State covered this number at Kyle Field against Texas A&M. It would definitely be Utah State for me here. I'd make this game 17.

EASTERN MICHIGAN @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN - 1 PM

The way Central Michigan plays... I just dk how you can lay a number like 6 with this team. They play an insanely slow pace. All they do is run the ball. Remember, their new head coach is Matt Drinkall... he's an Army guy. So we're talking about super slow paced... run-first offense. Just not the type of team you're crazy about laying a big number with. Now, Eastern Michigan's defense is wrecked with injuries and they can't stop anybody... but still, it's not like Central Michigan's offense has been efficient.

The problem Drinkall has... last year with Army, he had an offensive line with 5 all conference pieces on it. Central Michigan doesn't have the strongest offensive line and the transfer they brought in to start at guard from Columbia got injured in Week 1 and is out for the season. The data points are tough here for CMU... cuz they had the opening win on SJSU where they jumped out to an early lead... honestly they should have lost that game. They lose an offensive lineman. Then they can't do anything against Michigan or Pitt... then they beat up on Wagner.

I really think Eastern Michigan can put up some fight on the defensive side of the ball. And I know that seems crazy... but remember, they just got their best defensive player back last week, Dramarian McNulty. They pick up the win... was it a good defensive effort? No... but they pull the upset off. Mowchan didn't play in that game... he's listed as questionable. If they have both McNulty and Mowchan on the field, this defense is much better and we're yet to see that.

On the other side of the ball, I don't have problems with this Eastern Michigan offense. This team can move the ball. Porter Rooks have 7 catches last week... good to see him getting involved. That's their star WR that missed all of 2024. It's been a slow recovery but having him in rhythm is huge. Noah Kim can play.

I really like Eastern Michigan here... I think they win outright. I'm a little concerned that Chris Creighton has never won here though. He's gone on the road to Mount Pleasant 5 times and has taken 5 L's. In fact, Eastern Michigan hasn't beaten the Chips here since 2011. So they've struggled in this building.

But they did almost get em last time in 2023. In fact, Eastern Michigan blew the lead with 2:30 left... and then missed a FG to tie it after that.

I like Eastern Michigan here... I think this team's super under-valued. The defense is healthier... Central Michigan isn't very good right now. Gimme the +6.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN @ JAMES MADISON - 1:30 PM

We've got two opposite play-styles here. Obviously, we know Clay Helton wants to move quickly and throw the ball. James Madison's been operating at a slow pace and running the ball.

This should be a really tough matchup for Georgia Southern. James Madison's been lights out against the pass so far this year... and they played Louisville on the road and Liberty. It's not like they haven't played anybody.

That being said... I do think Georgia Southern's offense is still being slept on a little. They opened up the season with two road games on the west coast... and everyone was kinda like "oh Georgia Southern is trash". Since they've come back home, we've seen the offense come to life in a major way. Yes it was against much easier opponents but we saw Georgia Southern looking like the offense we've come to expect. We know Clay Helton can put points up. I'm not saying they're gonna march up and down the field on James Madison.. but I do think they'll score.

On the other side of the ball, James Madison got off to a slow start offensively. The passing attack didn't look great. It looks like they may have gotten things back on track last week... but that was a tie game at half before Ethan Vasko got hurt. James Madison ran it up a bit at the end when Liberty had the backup QB in. This JMU offense hasn't looked all that great so far. That being said... the Georgia Southern defense is truly next-level terrible. So even though James Madison's offense isn't necessarily a unit I think is great, they should have no problems moving the football at home here. JMU RB GEORGE PETTAWAY PROABLY OUT FOR THIS GAME. HE'S DEALING WITH AN INJURY AND ONLY HAS 9 CARRIES THE LAST 2 GAMES.

My number is way off for this one. I have this game at 11.5. I'm not naive enough to think I have that much of an edge. But it would only be Georgia Southern.

ARKANSAS STATE @ UL MONROE - 3 PM

I don't have much interest in this one. I think UL Monroe is terrible... but they actually went on the road and picked up an FBS win over UTEP... meanwhile, Arkansas State is supposed to have a decent Sun Belt offense. It's been disappointing.

I know Kennesaw is definitely improved this year. They've got a new head coach and they definitely are a serious step up from last year... but are you kidding me? 4.6 YPP?

And on the other side of the ball... they got cooked by Amari Odom. I guess he's won that QB job over Dexter Williams. I will say though... I expect that Kennesaw State run & gun offense to be sneaky good this year. Arkansas State's last 3 games were against Iowa State, Arkansas and then Kennesaw. This should be a step down in competition in terms of offenses.

Look... in my opinion, the wrong team's favored. Laying points with Louisiana Monroe is crazy... but Arkansas State truly has been so disappointing. Arkansas State +2.5 for me here. They win this one outright.

AKRON @ TOLEDO - 3:30 PM

Man I have no interest in this game. Toledo should win by literally 40. That being said, they shoulda won by about 28 last week and ended up losing outright.

Akron's been bad... they did score some points on UAB but that's a UAB defense that gave up 42 points to an FCS offense.

I know these two units look close but Toledo should have no problems marching up and down the field on Akron's defense. The whole defensive line for Akron entering the season is a huge question mark.

I think Toledo kills em but I'm not even remotely close to touching this.

UTAH @ WEST VIRGINIA - 3:30 PM

This might be a tough trip for the Utes. West Virginia's defense has been strong all year.

This Utah offense looked unstoppable... then we saw them studder a little bit against Wyoming. That game was 3-0 at halftime. They ran it up late. Then they play Texas Tech at home and get completely crushed. The offense looked terrible.

And like I said, this West Virginia defense has looked extremely strong. Yeah, they got scored on in Kansas. On the road against an electric offense just days after they won their Super Bowl. Back at home... we saw what this defense did to Pittsburgh. I didn't think West Virginia would have a strong defense this year because it was so bad last year... but it's been impressive.

I don't think we should sleep on this defense, especially at home in Morgantown. We saw what they did to Pittsburgh. They blitzed the hell out of Holstein... the environment was nuts. Now it's probably not gonna be quite as crazy for the Utah game as it was for the Pitt game. But West Virginia showed us they can make offenses really uncomfortable coming into this building. Utah also just took a loss. TE / H Back Hunter Andrews is out for the season. 10 catches and 13 carries... he actually led the team in scrimmage yards against Wyoming.

On the other side of the ball, this is where I'm not sure if West Virginia stands a chance. This offense looks bad... even in the huge win over Pittsburgh, we saw some really ugly offense.

They might not even have their QB in this one. Marchiol has a foot injury and is currently listed as questionable. I don't trust the WVU offense with Marchiol... I really don't trust it with Jaylen Henderson at QB if that's who's gonna play. Moving the football in this game should really be a struggle for West Virginia.

I know considering an under in a Rich Rodriguez game comes with some risk. West Virginia runs the fastest paced offense in the country. But after what happened in Laramie, I expect Utah to play conservative with this one.... sustain long drives. Neither of these teams have given us a ton of explosive plays so far this year.

I agree with the movement betting this total down. It would be under for me... as far as a side, I would make this game 11.5 maybe. I don't trust Utah's offense enough to lay it... I guess if there's ever a 14 open, I'd consider West Virginia but just under.

SAN DIEGO STATE @ NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 3:30 PM

This is the side of the ball that's tough to figure out. Northern Illinois' defense was elite last year... they pretty much lost the entire defense but it seems like this is still gonna be a decent defense.

We've yet to see Sean Lewis' offense look great... but I'm a little concerned that the offensive looked especially terrible in their only road game.

And like I said... this Northern Illinois defense has looked pretty decent. Now... so far according to PFF, Denegal's been absolutely awful against the blitz. Good news... Northern Illinois hasn't blitzed much at all this year. They also don't seem to have much of a pass rush. Not saying that erases all the struggles we've seen from this offense so far... but it certainly gives us a little bit of hope that Denegal can play a good game on the road here.

And if San Diego State can play a DECENT offensive game... that's all I need here is a decent offensive game. They shouldn't have a problem getting the win.... because Northern Illinois' offense is absolutely terrible.

Northern Illinois has broken off a few explosive plays... but as far as sustaining drives, the offense has been terrible. Combine that with the fact that both of these teams run a slow pace and don't pass much? This should be an under game all the way. UNDER 43.5 and a lean towards San Diego State -2.5.

CAL @ BOSTON COLLEGE - 3:30 PM

So yeah... Cal's stock fell pretty fast. People were loving this team a week ago and now... we're catching almost a TD. I will say, Boston College was going to be more than a FG favorite here either way. But it's tough to unsee last week.

Sagapolutele got hyped up for a few weeks and deservingly so... he was slinging the ball. That came to a crashing halt on the road at SDSU.

Now he's going into a much tougher environment. Not only has Boston College played great defense so far this year... but this was a really tough defense at home last year as well. Boston College might be healthier defensively. Syair Torrence and Amari Jackson are two of their top 3 CBs... both didn't play in that Week 3 loss at Stanford. DT Owen Stoudmire also didn't play in that game. All 3 are listed as questionable.

I'm also concerned about the Cal run game... remember this was Cal's problem last year. Jadyn Ott couldn't stay healthy. Mendoza had a good year at QB but he didn't have run support all season. The Minnesota game is understandable... Gophers have a great defensive front. But San Diego State? You have to give your QB a bit more help than that.

I don't have a ton of faith in Cal consistently moving the ball in this game. The other side of the ball is where Cal could pose some problems for BC.

Lonergan's been great. He hasn't been under a ton of pressure yet this year... but when he has experienced pressure, he's handled it well.

The concern I have for Boston College's offense is the same concern I have with Cal's offense... can they give this guy any run support?

Nobody has run the ball on Cal yet this year... and they haven't exactly seen the most explosive offenses.. but this was a really tough defensive front last year and I trust Wilcox as a defensive coach. I would imagine this is gonna be a very strong run defense again this year.

Now Cal's numbers against the pass look strong also... but they haven't created a ton of pressure and they also haven't seen a passing attack like this one. Now Cal's numbers against the pass look strong also... but they haven't created a ton of pressure and they also haven't seen a passing attack like this one. Remember.. Minnesota has a RS-Freshman playing QB... Oregon State's a trainwreck.

If I knew Boston College was going to get those defensive pieces back, I would take them at anything under 7. I still would lean Boston College but I didn't bet it.

UCONN @ BUFFALO - 3:30 PM

It would be a TA'QUAN ROBERSON revenge game... He's a former UConn Huskie. But he's not playing. He was injured last week. Right off the bat, I know I don't like this matchup for the Buffalo defense. This Buffalo defensive front is solid... but I don't trust the secondary and this is a UConn offense that has a passing attack.

Buffalo has not played anybody that can throw the ball... in fact, the most dangerous passing attack they've seen so far was Minnesota in the opener. And Minnesota had a RS-Freshman making his first career start in that game! Didn't matter... they were still throwing the ball on this Buffalo secondary.

UConn brought back a ton of production on the offensive side of the ball, including their QB Joe Fagnano and he's been good so far.

Buffalo has a strong defensive front and they have been generating some pressure... but Fagnano's been smart with the football. He gets the ball out quickly. He should have a good game throwing the ball.

Buffalo's been susceptible to explosive plays... UConn's been generating a lot of those. I like the Huskies offense to put points on the board in this one.

On the other side of the ball, this is where the matchup gets tough. Both of these units look shaky. UConn had an elite defense last year... but they lost mostly all of their starters and they've really struggled. Buffalo's offense doesn't look the same without Ogbonna at QB.

I really think this Buffalo offense is easy to gameplan against. But UConn was just struggling to make stops against Ball State. That is not a good football team this year. This is a transition season for Ball State with a brand new coaching staff.

It was a bit of a flat spot... UConn coming off back to back heartbreaking losses to regional teams... their basketball rival Syracuse and then UDel. I think they get back on track here. I trust UConn to score points and I really think they win this game... I just don't trust the defense enough to lay more than 3. But we're talking about a backup QB here for Buffalo... so I'll take UConn here.

INDIANA @ IOWA - 3:30 PM

Matchup history is not on Indiana's side in this one... but do we just throw that out? This is a new era of Indiana football with Cignetti.

I think the main question is... do we think Indiana can do THIS at Kinnick? Cuz we all know the criticism of this Indiana team. They very clearly can smoke inferior teams. They're awesome at it. But a road game at Kinnick... now we're talking about the upper echelon of the Big Ten.

No defense they've seen this year even comes close to a road game against Iowa. In fact, the only games on last year's schedule that are comparable to Iowa's defense at home would be the Ohio State and Notre Dame games. Indiana didn't look good offensively in either of those.

Now we gotta give Mendoza credit... he's been excellent. Iowa's pressure is coming and he's handled it extremely well this season. This will be the toughest environment he's ever played in. He played two tough road games last year.. @ Florida State and @ Pittsburgh... Cal lost both those games and they scored a total of 24 combined points. So both times we saw Mendoza go on the road in harsh environments last season, he struggled. He's used to having run support... clean pockets... probably not gonna happen here in Iowa.

Iowa's defense should give Indiana all kinds of problems... the thing is, on the other side of the ball, how do we trust Iowa's offense?

Now I guess you can point at the last two games and say "hey Iowa's offense is coming around!". And that's true... they do seem to be playing much better offense recently. But those games were against UMass and Rutgers. Rutgers' defense is pretty terrible.

What Indiana did to Illinois last week should be illegal. That's a good offense with an experienced Big Ten QB in Altmyer and they blanked em. Now that game was at home... but still, this defense is very strong.

The thing is... as strong as Indiana looks... Iowa just doesn't get beat at home like that. They haven't lost a home game by more than a TD in 3 years... and they was against the #4 Michigan team that went 12-0 and won the Big Ten. There's no way I'm laying more than a TD to the Hawkeyes in Kinnick. Give me Iowa.

UCLA @ NORTHWESTERN - 3:30 PM

A very pass-reliant UCLA offense goes on the road lakeside... very windy. The good news is Northwestern's struggled to defend the run so far this year but is UCLA even capable of taking advantage of that? This is also a Northwestern defense that's dealing with injuries. S Damon Walters hasn't played yet this season and it doesn't look like he'll be back for this one. The guy who's been starting in his spot is Garner Wallace... he got injured early in the Oregon game and he's listed as questionable. They also lost a corner, CB Josh Fussell in that Oregon game and it looks like he's gonna miss this one. So we might be dealing with a really limited secondary for Northwestern.

So UCLA should be able to move the ball... but on the other side, this UCLA defense is just the worst thing ever created. I'm not sure how we count on this unit to make stops.

I'm not laying 6.5 with Northwestern... but the idea of betting UCLA is just sickening. I'll say over... looks like the wind isn't going to be too bad... UCLA should be able to score and they can't stop anybody.

BAYLOR @ OK STATE - 3:30 PM

Coming off a loss... and with Oklahoma State missing so many players... Baylor's offense should put up a monster number in this game. Remember, they fired Gundy and a bunch of players withdrew from the team to enter the portal early.

On the other side, Baylor's defense isn't very good at all but Oklahoma State is still rocking with the backup QB who looked terrible against Tulsa.

Baylor should win by a million... Baylor -20.5.

OHIO STATE @ WASHINGTON - 3:30 PM

Ohio State's offense is a tough one... they numbers look great. But we've only seen them in one actual test. It was the opener against Texas and the offense really didn't look good in that game.

Ohio is a respectable opponent... not so much on the defensive side. But still they absolutely smoked the Bobcats in that game. 7.5 YPC and 10.8 YPA. So even though the Buckeyes offense didn't look great, I'm inclined to trust them as an elite unit.

This Washington defense has elite numbers... but they really haven't been tested at all. Last week against Washington State, they were getting thrown on. Remember, that was a 31-24 game heading into the 4th quarter. Washington scored 28 points in the 4th to make it look like a complete blowout. The rest of the game didn't look like that.

I know there's hesitation backing these Big Ten offenses on the west coast based on what we saw last year... but Ohio State might be immune to that. They only went out to the west coast once... they went to Oregon and hung 31 points in that game. They lost on a last second FG. This is also a Washington defense that is not healthy. LB LB Buddah Al-Uqdah, one of the team's leading tacklers, he got hurt last week and has been ruled out. Their best CB Tacario Davis got hurt in Week 2 and hasn't played since. He's listed as questionable. Their big time incoming transfer LB Jacob Manu hasn't played yet this season. So maybe they get him on the field but he's never played on this team before and it's not even confirmed that he's gonna play. Their best DL Jayvon Parker is still out with a torn achilles.

On the other side of the ball, this is going to be a battle. Ohio State's defense looks elite... and so does the Washington offense.

Demond Williams has been excellent so far this year... but he's had all day to throw. That's probably not gonna be the case against Ohio State. I very seriously doubt they're going to let him stand there with the football for 3.07 seconds in this one.

He's also had a ton of run support so far this year... I doubt that's gonna be there against Ohio State either.

The way I look at this game... Ohio State is definitely 10 points better than Washington in this building. It comes down to whether or not you believe in Demond Williams. If you think this guy's a hero... maybe he can go full NFL superstar in this game and go punch for punch with Ohio State. Personally... I'm saying Ohio State -8.

LSU @ OLE MISS - 3:30 PM

Well right off the bat, we gotta ask if this LSU offensive line is capable of exploiting what seems to be a much weaker Ole Miss defensive front than we saw last year. So far this year, LSU hasn't run the ball much... and when they've tried to, it has not been successful. It certainly doesn't help that their superstar RB is dealing with an injury. He sprained his ankle in Week 4 and is listed as probable. Ole Miss is vulnerable to the run... having Durham at 100% is huge for LSU. I definitely don't like that he's hobbled.

Ole Miss actually has great defensive numbers against the pass so far this year. But teams have been running the ball on em without issue. Georgia State, Tulane, Arkansas and Kentucky all ran the ball successfully against Ole Miss.

I know those numbers make it look like Ole Miss has some elite pass defense... but I'm not so sure about that. Taylen Green didn't have problems with it.

I don't really trust this defense... but at the same time, we have to figure out what's going on with Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU offense. He finally had a good game against Southeast Louisiana. Is he back on track now and we can just ignore these first few? Or is the LSU offense something we need to worry about?

Normally, we can just count on Brian Kelly giving us an explosive LSU offense... we didn't see that at all in the first few games. Part of me wants to say "dude this LSU offense is fine... they're always a top 10 passing attack. Don't over-react". But I also don't want to just completely ignore the first 3 games of the season.

On the other side of the ball, I think we need to upgrade the Ole Miss offense a bit now that they've made the QB switch. Trinidad Chambliss has started the last two games and the offense has looked excellent.

And most of that damage has been through the air. So this kid can definitely sling it. We do need to point out that he played an Arkansas defense that isn't very good and Tulane. Solid opponents... but not comparable to LSU's defense.

LSU's defense is the reason they're 4-0 right now. Yes... you can question the competition. Clemson, Florida... these offenses don't look that great.

Look at these numbers... LSU might have a top 10 defense this year. Not what we've really seen from them under Brian Kelly the past few years.

So far... Chambliss looks excellent. But he hasn't seen a ton of pressure yet. Based on what we've seen so far from LSU's defensive front... the pressure's coming. Now maybe Trinidad Chambliss is the man and he handles the pressure... but we'll see. He's never seen a defense like this in his life.

LSU has gotten the better of Ole Miss... they're 7-2 in their last 9 games against em. But the two losses are their last two trips to Oxford. The last time these two teams played in this building, we saw the most epic shootout of the season. That was Jayden Daniels against Jaxson Dart.

I bet LSU ML because I don't think the Ole Miss defense is very good.... but this is truly a coinflip.

AUBURN @ TEXAS A&M - 3:30 PM

Man Auburn just can't catch a break here. Not only did they kinda get robbed last week... but now they immediately go to Kyle Field to play Texas A&M who's coming off a bye week. These are two of the worst possible matchups for Auburn... an offense that relies on its offensive line and run game. Oklahoma's probably the best defensive front in College Football... Texas A&M is right up there also. Look at those opponents too... it's not like Texas A&M has played scrub rushing attacks.

Now good news for Auburn... their C should be good to go. He left the Oklahoma injury and they thought it was serious... but it's just a sprain and from what I'm reading, he's gonna play through it... RB1 Jeremiah Cobb might not be 100%. He got banged up in the Oklahoma game. I think he's gonna play though. Texas A&M is gonna be without S - Bryce Anderson and LB Scooby Williams is listed as questionable. Both were injured in the Notre Dame game.

Look, I personally think Oklahoma's defensive front is better than Texas A&M's... so I do think there's a chance Auburn can run the ball a bit more in this one than they did last week... but the fact that Auburn's coming straight from Norman and Texas A&M had a bye week... doesn't exactly thrill me.

Jackson Arnold has not handled pressure well... we saw him hold onto the football and take what felt like 35 sacks in the Oklahoma game... that Texas A&M pass rush is coming.

It's the other side of the ball that worries me even more for Auburn. They're most likely gonna be without starting CB Jay Crawford. DE Amaris Williams should be healthier. He's only played 10 snaps in the last 2 games.

They played a solid defensive game against Oklahoma... but here's the thing, I don't think Oklahoma's offense is very good. They have a superstar QB and a couple WRs. But it's a very one-dimensional offense. They have no run game at all. Texas A&M's offense is almost the complete of Oklahoma's. They've got a QB that maybe we're not sold on... but they're absolutely elite everywhere else. Superstar RBs... top 3 offensive line... playmaker WRs. I personally believe Texas A&M's offense is significantly better than Oklahoma's.

My plan was to take Auburn last week... they pull the upset off over Oklahoma... and then take Texas A&M in this one. The fact that last week's game had that crazy ending where Auburn didn't even end up covering is kinda throwing a wrench into things. I like the matchup for Texas A&M and I love the rest advantage. It would be Texas A&M on a side... but honestly, I think I like the over better if you can get it at 54 or lower.

TULANE @ TULSA - 4 PM

Pretty much same as last week... if Kirk Francis plays, I like the over. Tre Lamb wants to run a fast-paced spread pass-first offense. We haven't seen it yet because the QB has been out for 3 weeks. Kirk Francis is listed as questionable... so we're now going on week 4 in concussion protocol. Idk.

TENNESSEE @ MISSISSIPPI STATE - 4:15 PM

Another game where we should see a ton of points on paper. Two very fast-paced teams.

Mississippi State's defense looks much better this year... it's also important to point out they haven't really played anybody outside of the Arizona State game.

They got steamrolled on the ground in that one. They jumped out to an early lead and then they pulled off the miracle game-winning TD at the end. But the truth is... Arizona was dominating that game on the ground for most of it.

I originally said Miss State +7.5 on the live show... but honestly, I think the play here would be to just take the over. Aguilar was piecing Georgia up... Mississippi State's defensive numbers might be a little bit deceiving. Remember, Tennessee is still missing both their top CBs and Miss State has a couple injuries on the defensive side as well.

OVER 63.

MIDDLE TENN @ KENNESAW - 6 PM

I think the place to look in this one is right here. The Kennesaw State offense. You look at the year long numbers... it doesn't look that impressive.

But since making the QB switch to Amari Odom, I think Jerry Mack feels more comfortable with his offense and we've seen the results. Kennesaw has won back to back games including an upset win over Arkansas State.

Looks like MTSU took some money and it's dropped below a TD. I'm not necessarily interested in laying the big number with Kennesaw... I just think we're gonna see offense. Both teams move at a fast pace... all MTSU does is throw the ball.

Give me an over 52.5.

ARIZONA @ IOWA STATE - 7 PM

I don't know where the consistent offense is gonna come from in this game. Both these defenses are elite. Arizona's offense has been running the ball a bit... but I doubt they're gonna get that off on the road against this Matt Campbell defense.

We all watched them beat up on Kansas State... but it was the Arizona defense that won that game. The offense wasn't doing a whole lot. And that game was at home.

On the other side, Arizona's defensive numbers might be inflated a bit. They played Hawaii with a limping Alejado and a 6 month rest advantage... and their other game was home against Kansas State, whose offense just looks broken. So I don't think they're THIS good. But I do think we need to respect Arizona on this side of the ball.

Iowa State's offense hasn't exactly looked excellent. Now they've played Iowa... even their FCS game was against a tough opponent in South Dakota. They haven't shown much of a consistent rushing attack.

Both teams coming off a bye week, I expect to see great defensive efforts. I lean towards the Iowa State side... but I'm surprised the total hasn't been bet down. I would have this one at 45.5/46.5. It's been bouncing between 48.5 and 50.5. I think that's a couple points too high. Gimme the under.

WESTERN KENTUCKY @ MISSOURI STATE - 7 PM

We should definitely see a lot of passing in this game. Both of these teams are top 25 in pass frequency.

At first glance, it looks like it should be a favorable matchup for Western Kentucky's offense. Missouri State has really struggled defensively.

They haven't shown us much of a pass rush at all... Mcivor should be a really great position to have a great game here.

Where it gets a bit confusing is we have some wild data points here for Missouri State's defense. They played USC and SMU... and get pretty much cooked in both games. Their other two games were against Marshall and UT Martin. They actually played solid defense in those two games.

And let's not act like things have been great for Western Kentucky. In fact, it kinda seems like Mcivor is trending in the opposite direction. So I really don't know what to think. We saw Missouri State hang tough with SMU in this building for a half.

And on the other side of the ball... I wouldn't be surprised if Missouri State can make some throws on this defense.

I know Western Kentucky has great looking numbers against the pass... but keep in mind, they've only played one offense that can throw the ball all year... Toledo... and Toledo cooked em up!

Jacob Clark has really done a great job handling pressure so far this year.

This Missouri State offense leads the FBS in explosive play %! And Western Kentucky has allowed a lot of explosive plays.

This number is all the way down at 4.5... sharp number. I wanna bet Missouri State but I'd need 7 to actually place it.

OREGON @ PENN STATE - 7:30 PM

Well here we are. The Big Ten game that's been circled for 9 months. The Big Ten Championship rematch.

Obviously, we're going to see a lot of green in these graphics.

Jim Knowles is the new DC here at Penn State. We saw him coach against Dan Lanning twice last year and had two very different outcomes. Lanning got the best of him in Week 7. That was in Eugene... Oregon got the win and there weren't many defensive stops in that game. But they met again in the CFB Playoff and Jim Knowles definitely had the last laugh. Ohio State went up 28-0 in that game or something crazy.

We know Dante Moore's gonna see some pressure in this game. Penn State leads the country with a 52.3% pressure rate... granted, they haven't played even a half decent offensive line yet. To Dante Moore's credit, he's handled pressure extremely well up to this point. In fact, Dante Moore's been pretty flawless so far this year.

In fact, Oregon has done whatever they wanted both on the ground and through the air this season... and they've played significantly stronger competition than Penn State has. RB - NOAH WHITTINGTON EXPECTED TO RETURN.

Penn State's defense is elite... but I have a hard time seeing this offense gets stopped. They're off to a way stronger start than they were last year... Penn State's defense hasn't been even slightly tested. Not even a little bit. I trust Dan Lanning. I like Oregon to move the ball here.

On the other side, this is where it gets interesting. First I want to say that those Oregon numbers against the run are a little misleading. Northwestern broke a 79 yard TD run with 1:30 left in garbage time and had another TD drive right before that when the game was over. Oregon has not been getting run on.

The main story here is... can we trust Drew Allar? He hasn't looked great so far this year.... and let's be honest, so many of Drew Allar's moments from last season involve Tyler Warren... who's obviously no longer there. Do we trust Drew Allar to win these big games? Do we trust this passing attack without Tyler Warren? Has James Franklin been keeping the playbook limited specifically waiting for this game? So many questions.

We already know what Oregon's gonna do... it doesn't take a brilliant football mind to decipher Oregon's defensive gameplan. Load up against the run... force Drew Allar to make throws. Can he make them? Look maybe Penn State finally gets over the hump and wins one of these big games... but idk how you lay more than a FG. I'm on Oregon +3.5. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see a lower scoring game after the shootout in the Big Ten Championship... so I lean under as well.

ALABAMA @ GEORGIA - 7:30 PM

Obviously, this game's awesome. As far as betting though, this is tough. We know the history... Alabama's had Kirby Smart's number. Tide are 9-1 in their last 10 against Georgia. Now all of these are against Kirby Smart though.

Now most of those were obviously Nick Saban... but DeBoer did not have problems putting up a big number against Kirby Smart's defense last year with Jalen Milroe.

After that rough opener @ Florida State, Ty Simpson has been essentially perfect... and he passes the eye test, too. I know UL Monroe isn't really a respectable data point but that Wisconsin defense is pretty good.

And after seeing what Joey Aguilar did to this Georgia defense a couple weeks back, how can we possibly count on them to make stops here? Ty Simpson looks excellent... DeBoer cooked em up last year with Milroe. How can we count on Georgia to stop this offense?

If you're betting on Georgia... it's based on this right here. Kirby Smart has struggled against Alabama... but he's never played em in Athens.

On the other side of the ball, I'm really not too sure. I think Alabama has the most talented defense in the country. I truly believe that opener isn't that reliable of a data point. Gus Malzahn, Castellanos, there were just so many unknowns going into that game. Florida State had the element of surprise.

But I gotta say... watching Gunner Stockton drive down the field on the road in Tennessee to tie the game 38-38... this young man has earned my respect. That's a tough road SEC environment... Tennessee was outplaying them.. and he took em down the field and sent it to overtime.