CFB Friday Week 5
- Kyle Kirms
- Sep 26
- 5 min read
FLORIDA STATE @ VIRGINIA - 7 PM
The lead story in this one is the status of Castellanos. He left the Kent State game with an injury and didn't return. But did he not return because they were blowing Kent State out? They're being sketchy when asked about it.
For some reason, I thought he was so much better than this in the Alabama game.
The truth is... when it comes to this Florida State team, we just really don't know much. They played a great game and beat Alabama in the opener. It was Ty Simpson's 1st career start and it was on the road at Doak Campbell. It's a great game.. but it's 1 data point. Since then, they've smoked two terrible football teams.
If Castellanos doesn't play, Florida State will be more reliant on the run... This Virginia defense has been pretty solid. They had one bad game against NC State... but they were missing LB Kam Robinson and S Antonio Clary in that game . Robinson is probably the best player on their defense and he was out the first couple games. Now that he's back and this game's at home... man if Castellanos is out, I think Florida State is gonna struggle to move the ball. FSU TE RANDY PITTMAN JR. MIGHT BE BACK AS WELL AS WR SQUIRREL WHITE.
On the other side, we've got a pretty good matchup. Definitely concerning that Virginia might be without their center for this one. Brady Wilson left the Stanford game injured and is listed as questionable.
The thing with Virginia's offense is... they've had an easy schedule so far. NC State's their toughest opponent and that is not the same NC State defense we've seen in years past. Stanford's defense is ok I guess. Florida State's defense will be, by far, their toughest test.
We don't know how good Florida State's defense is. They had the big game against Alabama in the opener and we don't want to just disregard that data point. But it was also Ty Simpson's first career start... and it was on the road at Doak Campbell. Just a nightmare spot for a QB to make his first career start.
This is a serious test for Florida State's defense. They're going on the road on a short week and playing a Virginia offense that looks really explosive. Chandler Morris has years of starting experience and looks excellent. They're running the ball. This is a serious test. Florida State took an L the last time they came to this building and they've actually lost 2 of the last 3 here.
I'm on Virginia here. It's not that I don't think Florida State is strong... it's that I also think Virginia is strong and the defense is under-valued with the early injuries. I got the +7.5. If Castellanos plays and is fully healthy, obviously that's the worst case scenario but I still think UVA can be competitive.
TCU @ ARIZONA STATE - 9 PM
Absolutely massive win for Arizona State last week on the road against one of the toughest opponents in the conference. That wasn't a fluke either... they were the better team for sure.
I thought Arizona State's defense played well last week. I know most of Baylor's wounds were self-inflicted... some costly penalties and turnovers. But Arizona State made some key plays on the defensive side... and keep in mind when you're looking at these numbers, this was on the road against one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Holding Baylor to 24 points in their own building is a good defensive performance.
And honestly, this has been an impressive defense all year. I feel like these numbers don't tell the story. Mississippi State had a couple drives on em but they didn't get carved up in that game. Texas State is a strong offense... Arizona State did an excellent job against them. They were moving the ball but couldn't turn the drives into points.
This will be quite the test though... cuz now they've gotta try to make stops against Sonny Dykes and that TCU offense which looks very strong. We've seen Josh Hoover play two games against Power 4 opponents already this season... let's just say he didn't struggle in either of them.
Arizona State hasn't shown much of a pass rush so far this year... and you know Sonny Dykes is getting the ball out of Josh Hoover's hands quickly... so he should have plenty of space to work in this one. S - XAVION ALFORD WILL MISS ANOTHER GAME FOR ARIZONA STATE. HE DIDN'T PLAY IN THE BAYLOR GAME. NB - MONTANA WARREN WILL MISS A 2ND STRAIGHT GAME.
Now here's where I worry a little bit for TCU's offense. Their RB1 Kevorian Barnes is out. He missed last game also... and TCU was not giving Hoover much run support. Arizona State doesn't blitz much... if TCU isn't posing a threat on the ground, Sun Devils defense might be able to close on those underneath throws and swing passes Hoover loves to throw. So despite me being a big fan of this TCU offense, I don't really like this matchup for em.
On the other side, this is going to be an interesting matchup. Injury news here... so Arizona State is still gonna be without their SLOT WR - JALEN MOSS. He's missed multiple weeks. TCU is going to be without CB - Avery Helm again. He missed all of last season injured... he finally came back in Week 3... only played 20 snaps and now he's out again. SOME GOOD NEWS THOUGH: TCU is getting EDGE - ZACH CHAPMAN back. He was a Freshman All-American last year and missed the last couple games.
We need to figure out if we trust this TCU run defense. It has solid numbers so far this year... but they really haven't played a rushing threat. North Carolina's offense is a joke... and they played SMU with a limping Kevin Jennings.
Arizona State can run the football... between Raleek Brown, Kanye Udoh, Sam Leavitt, Kyson Brown... they've got ball carries for days.
Now if you're looking to poke holes in the Arizona State offense, you can point at the fact that Sam Leavitt actually hasn't been very efficient throwing the football so far this year.
TCU will be the best defense Arizona State has seen so far this year but this rushing attack looks good and TCU has shown us their vulnerable to the pass. This could be a good spot at home for Leavitt to make some throws. If this is under a FG, it's gotta be Arizona State here. I would make the game 3... so this is, by no means, a huge edge.
HOUSTON @ OREGON STATE - 10:30 PM
Does Houston have themselves a team here? I will say... the final scores aren't the best indication. The offense hasn't really looked good. They scored 21 points in the 4th quarter against Rice. They struggled against Stephen F. Austin.
They haven't shown us much of a rushing attack at all. Under 33% success rate/rush on the season.
Now Conner Weigman does seem to be improving... honestly though, I'm not sure how much we can really blame on him. He's been pressured on over 52% of his dropbacks this year. He's been the most pressured QB in College Football.
Now some of it be on him... PFF has his AVG time to throw at 2.96... which is high. So he's been holding onto the football. There's good news though... he's been handling it well. He's got excellent numbers under pressure so far this year. And also, Oregon State has zero pass rush what-so-ever.
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