NFL Props: Sunday 1/22
Got absolutely murdered yesterday. It's embarassing.
But I won't break the cold spell by cowering away! I found 3 plays that I love the value on today
Best of luck with all of your bets today
Dawson Knox Ov 36.5 Receiving Yards (-106) | 1u Caesars
The Bengals and their DC Anuramo are quite good at two things, limiting star wide receivers and limiting the deep ball
They do this by blitzing very infrequently, rushing 3 or 4, and dropping the remaining ⅞ into coverage. It’s how they managed to make Mahomes look like dog shit in 2 straight games against them
So due to this, the Bengals tend to run a very heavy zone scheme and that is beautiful for our main man, Dawson Knox
Knox sees a huge boost in both Y/RR (26%) and YAC/REC (71.8%) against zone compared to man
On top of that, Knox is a different player at home cashing his 12/17 games going back to last szn (AVG 43.9)
Now we’ve got Knox coming off two pretty horrendous games against Miami and New England where he mustered just 33 yards combined so why is his total this high?
Well Miami sent so many guys to attack Allen that they had to play a lot of man, while the Patriots were Top 5 in man coverage rate
The Bengals are not that, and they also aren’t great at defending opposing tight ends
On the season we’ve seen them allow the 10th most YD/G (55) to tight ends, but it’s gotten much worse over the L5 weeks
During this span they’ve allowed the 4th most yd/g (72.4), 2nd most PA/G (9.6), and 3rd most REC/G (6.4) to Tight Ends
We saw Allen force the deep shot way too much last week and missed out on prime opportunities underneath, think he addresses that this week and Knox plays a big role
Brandon Aiyuk Ov 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | 1u BET365
The Aiyuk disrespect is one I simply cannot condone and after looking at his lines for WEEKS and saying “oh no his hit rate is too high, this is a trap” I’ve accumulated about 6 units in opportunity cost being on the sidelines. NO MORE
Aiyuk has a beautiful spot against Dallas as I expect Trevon Diggs to follow Samuel as he does w/ most WR1s.
And if you’ve seen the shape the rest of Cowboys secondary is in right now, you know that is genuinely terrifying
Cowboys started strong against wr2’s but by season’s end have found themselves dead last in yd/g allowed (63.7), 23rd in TGTs allowed (6.1), and 32nd in DVOA vs WR2
Now we’re getting a discount on Aiyuk’s line because Deebo is back, but in 3 starts w/ Purdy and Deebo, Aiyuk has had 73, 59, and 57 yards
That was against Seattle, Tampa, and Arizona, none of which even in the Bottom 14 of D vs wr2
On top of that Aiyuk has been sensational at home cashing 8/10 games (AVG 64.7)
I stood away from Pacheo’s rush line due to a suspect line and it cost me, we are getting those units back today!
Tony Pollard 3+ Receptions/T.Y. Hilton 20+ Receiving Yards SGP (+140) | 1u DK/MGM
It’s hard to find a better spot for Pollard to rack up the targets than against San Francisco as they’ve allowed THE MOST PASS ATTEMPTS PER GAME to opposing RB’s (7.8)
Through the first 12 games of the szn, Pollard was AVG just 13.5 routes run per game, but over his L5 that has jumped to 19.6
As a result we’ve seen him cash his L4/5 games (AVG 3.4) and this matchup is even better for him as when Dak is pressured, Pollard sees a near 10% increase in tgt share
We know the 49ers are the kings of bringing pressure and as a result an opposing RB has cashed this line in 14/18 games for SF
Our other leg I think is in a beautiful matchup as once you get past Charvarius Ward, the 49ers secondary is quite weak
Deommodore Lenoir has been picked on all year by opposing QBs while 5th round rookie Samuel Womack & Janoris Jenkins are the only other active CB on the roster
Ceedee’s line borderline refuses to move and when the books are all in consensus about a line where many are betting the over, that’s not a great sign
A line that’s moving in the right direction? TY and it’s for good reason and the 49ers play a lot of zone
Well guess who’s been TEARING UP zone coverage since arriving in Dallas? T.Y.
His PFF grade vs Zone is 12 points higher than the next nearest Cowboy (Lamb) while his Y/REC (16.5), Y/RR (4.89), and ADOT (18.2) blow every other Cowboy OUT OF THE WATER
And that ADOT is important as the 49ers struggle against the deep ball sitting 24th in DVOA, but sit 1st in DVOA against short passes
Hilton has had 4+ targets in 3 straight games (AVG 4.33) and has cashed ¾ games since arriving (AVG 30.2)