NFL Props: Sunday 1/22

Got absolutely murdered yesterday. It's embarassing.

But I won't break the cold spell by cowering away! I found 3 plays that I love the value on today

Best of luck with all of your bets today

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Dawson Knox Ov 36.5 Receiving Yards (-106) | 1u Caesars

• The Bengals and their DC Anuramo are quite good at two things, limiting star wide receivers and limiting the deep ball

• They do this by blitzing very infrequently, rushing 3 or 4, and dropping the remaining ⅞ into coverage. It’s how they managed to make Mahomes look like dog shit in 2 straight games against them

• So due to this, the Bengals tend to run a very heavy zone scheme and that is beautiful for our main man, Dawson Knox

• Knox sees a huge boost in both Y/RR (26%) and YAC/REC (71.8%) against zone compared to man

• On top of that, Knox is a different player at home cashing his 12/17 games going back to last szn (AVG 43.9)

• Now we’ve got Knox coming off two pretty horrendous games against Miami and New England where he mustered just 33 yards combined so why is his total this high?

• Well Miami sent so many guys to attack Allen that they had to play a lot of man, while the Patriots were Top 5 in man coverage rate

• The Bengals are not that, and they also aren’t great at defending opposing tight ends

• On the season we’ve seen them allow the 10th most YD/G (55) to tight ends, but it’s gotten much worse over the L5 weeks

• During this span they’ve allowed the 4th most yd/g (72.4), 2nd most PA/G (9.6), and 3rd most REC/G (6.4) to Tight Ends

• We saw Allen force the deep shot way too much last week and missed out on prime opportunities underneath, think he addresses that this week and Knox plays a big role

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Brandon Aiyuk Ov 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | 1u BET365

• The Aiyuk disrespect is one I simply cannot condone and after looking at his lines for WEEKS and saying “oh no his hit rate is too high, this is a trap” I’ve accumulated about 6 units in opportunity cost being on the sidelines. NO MORE

• Aiyuk has a beautiful spot against Dallas as I expect Trevon Diggs to follow Samuel as he does w/ most WR1s.

• And if you’ve seen the shape the rest of Cowboys secondary is in right now, you know that is genuinely terrifying

• Cowboys started strong against wr2’s but by season’s end have found themselves dead last in yd/g allowed (63.7), 23rd in TGTs allowed (6.1), and 32nd in DVOA vs WR2

• Now we’re getting a discount on Aiyuk’s line because Deebo is back, but in 3 starts w/ Purdy and Deebo, Aiyuk has had 73, 59, and 57 yards

• That was against Seattle, Tampa, and Arizona, none of which even in the Bottom 14 of D vs wr2

• On top of that Aiyuk has been sensational at home cashing 8/10 games (AVG 64.7)

• I stood away from Pacheo’s rush line due to a suspect line and it cost me, we are getting those units back today!

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Tony Pollard 3+ Receptions/T.Y. Hilton 20+ Receiving Yards SGP (+140) | 1u DK/MGM

• It’s hard to find a better spot for Pollard to rack up the targets than against San Francisco as they’ve allowed THE MOST PASS ATTEMPTS PER GAME to opposing RB’s (7.8)

• Through the first 12 games of the szn, Pollard was AVG just 13.5 routes run per game, but over his L5 that has jumped to 19.6

• As a result we’ve seen him cash his L4/5 games (AVG 3.4) and this matchup is even better for him as when Dak is pressured, Pollard sees a near 10% increase in tgt share

• We know the 49ers are the kings of bringing pressure and as a result an opposing RB has cashed this line in 14/18 games for SF

• Our other leg I think is in a beautiful matchup as once you get past Charvarius Ward, the 49ers secondary is quite weak

• Deommodore Lenoir has been picked on all year by opposing QBs while 5th round rookie Samuel Womack & Janoris Jenkins are the only other active CB on the roster

• Ceedee’s line borderline refuses to move and when the books are all in consensus about a line where many are betting the over, that’s not a great sign

• A line that’s moving in the right direction? TY and it’s for good reason and the 49ers play a lot of zone

• Well guess who’s been TEARING UP zone coverage since arriving in Dallas? T.Y.

• His PFF grade vs Zone is 12 points higher than the next nearest Cowboy (Lamb) while his Y/REC (16.5), Y/RR (4.89), and ADOT (18.2) blow every other Cowboy OUT OF THE WATER

• And that ADOT is important as the 49ers struggle against the deep ball sitting 24th in DVOA, but sit 1st in DVOA against short passes

• Hilton has had 4+ targets in 3 straight games (AVG 4.33) and has cashed ¾ games since arriving (AVG 30.2)

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BEAVER'S PLAYS

Dawson Knox Ov 36.5 Receiving Yards (-106) | 1u Caesars

Brandon Aiyuk Ov 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | 1u BET365

Tony Pollard 3+ Receptions/T.Y. Hilton 20+ Receiving Yards SGP (+140) | 1u DK/MGM