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NFL Props: Saturday 1/21

On a bit of a cold spell, so if you wanna shit on me, I get it.

But hopefully, we can pick up where we left off in the NFL Playoffs and get back to greens


Got Three prop plays and a game total for today

 
Daniel Bellinger Ov 20.5 Rec Yds (-120) | 1u Pointsbet
  • So what happens if the Eagles do succeed in stopping Daniel Jones on the ground? Well then they’re gonna need to pass the ball and out of all the matchups for giants receivers, I find Bellinger’s most favorable

  • On the season the Eagles have been a decent defense against tight ends sitting 6th in DVOA despite seeing the 7th most TGTs per game

  • But there has been a turning of the tides because since December 1st, the Eagles have allowed the 7th most YPG (64.8), 7th most TGT/G (8.1), and 3rd most Rec/G (6.2) to TE

  • Bellinger’s rec total over is juiced to (-133) on some books despite going under his l3/4 games, which says something

  • And w/ 3+ receptions this szn Bellinger is 5-1 to the over (AVG 31), while overall he’s cashed his L7/11 games (AVG 24.5)

  • Now his lone miss was to the Eagles, but A.) he got banged up in that game, and B.) the Giants pulled their starters when it gout out of hand

  • As a result Bellinger played just 39 snaps, but he’s failed to go below 56 in four straight games (AVG 61.2)

  • Meanwhile, the Eagles run a ton of zone coverage, and Bellinger has been much better finding spots in the zone, than beating guys one on one

  • Compared to the talent on the outside, I don’t see guys like Hodgins and Slayton having much success, so I think Jones gets to it his safety blanket over the middle of the field and cashes our line

  • Would play this to 24.5, 22.5 on most books, specifically (+100) on BET365

 
Travis Etienne Ov 18.5 Rec Yds (-110) | 1u Fanduel
  • Think Etienne is quite undervalued thru the air after going under two straight and while I’m quite tempted to combine rush+rec, he got only 40 rush yds, but a chunky 28 rec yds in a loss to none other than the Chiefs when I bet him earlier this szn

  • W/ Lawrence’s decision making early last week, I think we just ride w/ the rec yds in case of a pass heavy game script

  • The Chiefs are a bad defense all around, but they are especially bad against rbs thru the air allowing the 3rd most yd/g (46.9), 3rd most pa/g (7.6), and sitting 28th in DVOA

  • In fact through the Chiefs 17 games, just 4 times has a team had a RB grab less than 19 rec yards against KC

  • Meanwhile Etienne just had two home games and went under, but that’s been the case for Etienne as he’s gone under his l6/7 at home (AVG 11.5 Yds, 1.5 Recs, 1.8 TGTS)

  • But on the road he’s cashed his L4/6 (AVG 20.5, 2.4 Recs, 2.4 TGTS)

  • I think in this matchup Etienne can get 3 recs and w/ 3+ recs on the szn Etienne is AVG 26.6 and is 6-2 to the over

  • W/ the pressure the Chiefs are bringing this should result in a higher frequency of dump offs, and the thing I like about Etienne is that it only takes one play

  • And w/ a higher frequency of opportunities to break one, I’ll take my chances

 
Daniel Jones Ov 42.5 Rush Yards (-115) | 1u Fanduel
  • The Giants LEANED HEAVILY on Jones’ legs last week against the Vikings and I don’t see much changing in what is a much tougher matchup against the Eagles

  • If you want to beat the Eagles you have to do it on the ground, but when Philly prepares for the run, they can stop it… well, as least as RBs go

  • That hasn’t been the same case as far a QBs go as they are COOKING the Eagles on the ground

  • Not only have they allowed the 4th most rush YPG to opposing QB, but 2nd in YPC

  • In their L4 games we’ve seen 3 QBs SMASH their totals vs Philly

  • Webb Ov 8.5 | Finished w/ 41

  • Prescott Ov 13.5 | Finished w/ 41

  • Fields Ov 68.5| Finished w/ 95

  • And they were bad in nearly every way vs QB’s on the ground

  • Against QB scrambles they allowed 9.2 Yds/play, 3rd worst in the NFL. Pretty important considering Jones was 3rd in scramble yds w/ 429

  • Meanwhile against QB designed runs they were 29th in Def Success Rate & 29th in EPA/Rush (Credit to Nate Tice)

  • We saw Jones handle the rock 17 times last week and had 5 designed runs so it’s evident they are imminent on him getting involved in the run game

  • I know this is square as all hell, but w/ Jones likely struggling to pass, I have to bet it at the low number

 
Giants/Eagles Under 48 (-110)
  • I know how our last under went w/ LAC/JAX, but unless DJ and Hurts combine for 5 turnovers in the 1st quarter, I think this should be a better outcome for us

  • The over went 5-1 in the wild card round, pretty unheard of considering defense tends to show up in the playoffs

  • Well now we’ve got Philly vs NY and have you seen the amount of TD boosts for this game?

  • Saquon Barkley Anytime TD Super Boost (DK), Jalen Hurts Ov 1.5 Pass TDs Super Boost (DK), Hurts/Jones/Barkley 2+ Combined Rush/Rec TDs Boost (FD), Slayton OV 49.5 Rec Yds & TD (Caesars), Brown 80+ yds & Smith TD Boost (Caesars)

  • You get the point, and if you remember last weekend we faded a couple of boosts and those were our most profitable bets

  • So w/ all these boosts, and money and bets on the over, why did the total move down a half point? Because sharp money is coming in on the under

  • The L5 matchups between these teams at Philly are 4-1 to the under and on top of that, the avg scores of these games as just 42.4, and not one went over 48

  • The Giants Offense is in for a rude awakening going from the clowns that are the Minny Defense to the Philly Defense that is Top 5 in the league

  • W/ strong corners on the outside I think Jones struggles to pass a bit, and we see a lot more runs compared to the quick passes that occurred often last week

  • We saw the Giants chew the clock nearly everytime they had the ball and I expect the same here w/ the explosive Philly Offense waiting on the sidelines

  • Meanwhile, the Giants Defense is finally fully healthy w/ Ojulari, Jackson, Mckinney, and Williams all back in the fold

  • Hurts last 2 games w/ this shoulder issue haven’t exactly been pretty either as he;s completed just 58% of his passes w/ zero TDS and 3 Picks.

  • Considering Hurts’ avgs both in TDs and INTs up to that point, I believe the shoulder issue is being underplayed and playing more of a role than we think

 
BEAVER'S PLAYS

Daniel Bellinger Ov 20.5 Rec Yds (-120) | 1u Pointsbet

Travis Etienne Ov 18.5 Rec Yds (-110) | 1u Fanduel

Daniel Jones Ov 41.5 Rush Yards (-120) | 1u Fanduel

Giants/Eagles Under 48 (-110) | 1u All Books

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