NBA Saturday 12/27

Kyle Kirms
5 days ago
4 min read

MAVERICKS @ KINGS - 5:10 PM

Dallas has been awful on the road. The defense has been absolutely terrible.

Now they're gonna go play a road game without Anthony Davis? Mavs are just 4-12 without Anthony Davis this year.

It should be a good matchup for Russell Westbrook to look dominant attacking the paint. Also the Kings have been active on the offensive glass recently. They should grab some offensive boards.

Now the Kings don't play much defense. Dallas should be able to score.

But the Mavs offense has been terrible in the games they played without Anthony Davis this year.

Kings or over.

SUNS @ PELICANS - 7:10 PM

Really not sure what to do here. So last night, I was leaning Phoenix -3.5. We've got the same exact game in the same exact location one night later. It opens 5.5, which I think is about right. Both teams show 20% from 3 tonight. These teams were a combined 13/65 from deep in that game.

Here's what I like for the Pelicans. The Suns have rested Mark Williams the last 3 times they've had a back to back... which means the Suns might not have anybody to exploit the Pelicans weakness.

Mark Williams is also the Suns rim protector.

I went Pellies +5.5.

NUGGETS @ MAGIC - 7:10 PM

Orlando can't seem to stop anybody... the offense fell off a while ago. Until they get Suggs or Wagner back, I think we need to price Orlando as a bad basketball team.

Orlando's one of the worst interior defenses in the NBA right now. They just gave up 25 2nd chance points to the Hornets. This team just has nothing that can stop Jokic.

Denver's missing 3 starters right now and honestly... it hasn't really slowed them down. Braun and Gordon have been out for a while and the Nuggets are still 8-2 in their last 10.

I'm on Denver -3.5.

NETS @ TIMBERWOLVES - 8:10 PM

Anthony Edwards might not play in this game.

This Minnesota offense was already having some problems... and the Nets defense is legitimate.

Getting Cam Thomas back gives the Nets an extra shooter... but if I'm a Nets fan, I'm not sure if I want Cam Thomas playing right now.

The Nets defense started cliquing after he got injured... and last year, it was kind of a similar story. The Nets defense was much better without Cam Thomas. “I want him to be solid defensively… a great playmaker and a great efficient scorer. He’s more than capable to do all those things. If he doesn’t then I’m going to have to sit down with him and try to help him get there,” Fernández said of Thomas’s return.

I guess I'd lean Brooklyn at +10.5.

PACERS @ HEAT - 8:10 PM

So are we gonna let 1 solid offensive game against the Hawks defense erase the previous 9? Miami's offense is terrible right now without Tyler Herro. We don't even know if Adebayo is coming back for this one.

Now Indiana's terrible... but it's really the offense that's terrible. The defense has actually been somewhat ok. Rick Carlisle's been emphasizing a slower pace and defense this year... which is almost the complete opposite of what we've come to know about the Pacers.

Pacers put a ton of pressure on the perimeter... I doubt we'll see a ton of 3's from the Heat in this one.

Pacers have thrown out 17 different starting lineups in 29 games. Miami's struggled to defend the 3 ball but Indiana's one of the worst 3PT shooting teams in the NBA right now.

I went with UNDER 230.5.

BUCKS @ BULLS - 8:10 PM

Both teams played last night and both teams are traveling. Alotta moving pieces here. I was considering taking Milwaukee +6.5 earlier because the biggest strength for the Bucks has been keeping opponents out of the paint... and the Bulls offense loves attacking the paint.

Also the Bulls have been the Bucks little brother in this division for years. Also the Bulls may be on a winning streak... they're last 3 wins were by 7, 3 and 2. It's not like they're blowing teams out.

Chicago should dominate the rebounding battle. They've been running double big rotations with Jalen Smith and Vucevic and Milwaukee's really struggled on the glass all year.

These two teams are complete opposites. Chicago's defense isn't good at all... but can we really count on the Bucks to score? Chicago's also pretty deep right now... they've got 10 players they're comfortable playing... so you know they're just never gonna let this game slow down. They want Bobby Portis and Myles Turner tired from sprinting up and down the court.