NBA Props: Wednesday 1/4

Great start to the journey yesterday!

Got my first play ready to go, but still have to evaluate a large chunk of this slate

Will be updating as the day goes along w/ more plays so be sure to check back before tip!

W/ ZION AND INGRAM BOTH OUT FOR THE PELICANS AGAINST THE FAST-PACED ROCKETS, MANY ARE RUSHING TO BET CJ MCCOLLUM OVERS, BUT WHAT IF I TOLD YOU THE GUY IS 1-4 TO HIS OVER IN THESE SPOTS AVG 21.4 PPG
I THINK THE VALUE MORE SO LIES W/ THE SNEAKY GOOD TREY MURPHY
IN THESE SPOTS THIS SZN, MURPHY IS 3-1 TO THE OVER (AVG 18.2 PPG) AND IS AVERAGING 34 MINS!
WELL GUESS WHAT!? WITH 30+ MINUTES AT HOME, MURPHY IS 6-1 TO THE OVER (AVG 18.4 PPG) AND MOST OF THOSE GAMES INCLUDED ZION & INGRAM!
NOW W/O THEM, HE IS GOING TO FACE A ROCKETS DEFENSE THAT HAS BEEN STOUT AT HOME BUT IS HORRENDOUS ON THE ROAD SITTING 29TH IN DEF EFF OVER THE L30
AND THEY SPECIFICALLY ARE TERRIBLE AGAINST SHOOTING GUARDS
OVER THE L30 DAYS THEYRE ALLOWING THE MOST PPG, AND 3RD MOST 3PM TO OPPOSING SHOOTING GUARDS
THIS IS A BIG-TIME SMASH SPOT FOR MURPHY AND AT THIS NUMBER, I CONSIDER IT A MUST-PLAY FOR TODAY

MASON PLUMLEE HAS BEEN ON AN INSANE HOT STREAK LATELY AND AS A RESULT, HE’S CASHED HIS L6/8 GAMES (AVG 14.8 PPG) AND 3 STRAIGHT (AVG 18)
NOW THAT IS GREAT AND ALL, BUT THEN WHY IS HIS TOTAL AT THE LOWLY TOTAL OF 11.5 JUICED TO THE UNDER ON SOME BOOKS?
POINTSBET WENT THE EXTRA MILE AND MOVED THIS DOWN TO 10.5! A NUMBER HE’S CASHED HIS L8/9!
UNLESS THE BOOKS BECAME A CHARITY OVERNIGHT, SEEMS LIKE THEY THINK HE GOES UNDER HERE
AND I FIRMLY AGREE BECAUSE HE HAS THE SINGLE WORST MATCHUP FOR WHAT HE DOES FROM A SHOOTING PERSPECTIVE
82% OF PLUMLEE’S SHOTS ARE COMING AT THE RIM AND NOW HAS TO FACE A GRIZZLIES TEAM THAT IS ALLOWING OPPONENTS TO CONVERT JUST 51.8% OF THOSE OVER THE L30 DAYS
THAT IS 10% LOWER THAN THE NEXT TEAM! AND CONSIDERING PLUMLEE IS ONLY SHOOTING ABOUT 8 TIMES A GAME DURING THIS SPAN, THAT PROJECTS TO ONLY 8 POINTS
TO HIT OUR MARK THAT WOULD REQUIRE ABOUT 12 SHOTS AND PLUMLEE HAS GONE OVER 10 ATTEMPTS ONCE!
MEANWHILE, GUYS LIKE SABONIS, JOKIC, AND AYTON HAVE ALL GONE UNDER THEIR MARKS VS MEMPHIS IN THE L2W WHILE ON HOT STREAKS
IN PLUMLEE’S L3 GAMES VS ADAMS HE HAS 6,4, AND 7 POINTS (AVG 5.6) AND FOULED OUT IN 2 OF THEM!
I THINK JA GETS PLUMLEE IN SIMILAR TROUBLE HERE AND WHEN YOU COMBINE THAT W/ ADAMS INSANE DEFENSE, THAT IS THE PERFECT RECIPE FOR AN UNDER

CALL ME NUTS, BUT I LIKE THE SPOT QUITE A BIT FOR FULTZ
EVERYBODY AND THEIR MOTHER IS OUT FOR THE MAGIC, SO FULTZ WILL OPERATE AS THE MAIN BALL HANDLER AND SHOULD SEE A MINS BOOST
AND IN HIS L2 GAMES AGAINST THE THUNDER W/ 30+ MINS, FULTZ WALKED AWAY WITH 8 AND 10 ASSISTS
SINCE 2020 W/ 30+ MINS, FULTZ HAS CASHED HIS L4/5 HOME GAMES (AVG 7.4)
NOW HE FACES A THUNDER THAT IS ALLOWING MUCH MORE ASSISTS TO PG THAN TO START THE YEAR
THE L5/6 POINT GUARDS TO FACE THE THUNDER HAVE CASHED THEIR TOTAL AND ARE AVG 8 PER GAME
THE THUNDER HAVE ALLOWED THE 7TH MOST APG TO PG OVER THE L30 DAYS AND THIS GAME TOTAL IS SET AT NEARLY 230.5
WE DON’T HAVE THE BIGGEST SAMPLE SIZE, SO I’LL TAKE MY CHANCES AT +MONEY HERE FOR .75U

SEEMS A BIT CRAZY TO TAKE ANYBODY ON THE GLASS AGAINST DUREN, BUT LOONEY IS SIMPLY BEASTING AT HOME
HE’S HIT THE TOTAL IN HIS L7/10 HOME GAMES (AVG 11.5) AND IS SET FOR EVEN MORE MINUTES TODAY AS THERE ARE ZERO BACKUP CENTERS ON THE ROSTER
EVEN KUMINGA WHO WOULD BE THE SMALLEST CENTER IN RECORDED HISTORY, IS OUT SO HE’S TOP SHOTTA AT THE 5
WHAT THIS HAS RESULTED IN IS 3 STRAIGHT GAMES OVER 26 MINUTES
W/25+ MINUTES LOONEY IS 8-1 TO THE OVER IN HIS L9 (AVG 13.9) AND AT HOME IT’S BEEN 7 STRAIGHT CASHES
EVEN AGAINST THE ROCKETS AND BULLS, WHO ALLOW THE FEWEST AND 3RD FEWEST REBS TO C ON THE SZN AND OVER THE L30 DAYS.. LOONEY REACHED 12+ IN BOTH
THIS IS A PISTONS TEAM THAT IS 28TH IN OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY ON THE ROAD OVER THE L30 DAYS AND W/ MISSES WILL COME MORE REB CHANCES
THEY’VE ALLOWED THE 9TH MOST RBG TO C BOTH OVER THE L30 DAYS AND L2W, AND W/ DUREN ESSENTIALLY GLUED TO THE BASKET DUE TO HIS SHOOTING ABILITY, I THINK LOONEY HITS THE MARK HERE AT THE +PRICE!

Kyle Kirms