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NBA Props: Wednesday 1/18

2-0 day yesterday made up for a weak MLK showing, let's continue to pick up units w/ my top 4 plays for today


WILL UPDATE IN COMMUNITY PAGE IF I FIND ANYTHING ELSE

 
Jimmy Butler Ov 30.5 PRA (-121) | 1u Caesars
  • I don’t know what type of vendetta Jimmy Butler has against the city of New Orleans but he has busted their ass as of late

  • In his l4 w/ 30+ minutes against the Pelicans, he’s SMASHED the line all 4 times (AVG 43.5) and now Herb Jones is DOUBTFUL which is even better for us

  • And this is a really enticing matchup for Butler as both of his strengths offensively are huge weaknesses for New Orleans

  • The Pelicans are DEAD LAST in def rim efficiency on the season and it’s been even worse as of late allowing opponents to convert 75% of their opportunities over the L30 days

  • Meanwhile, Butler is 1st amongst Heat starters in rim freq and 80th+ percentile amongst SF

  • On top of that, the Pelicans are 28th in DEF FT RATE over the L30 days and if you can’t defend the rim and give him free opportunities, Butler will eat you alive

  • Even w/ the roster back to almost full health, I see Butler producing in every way here. He’s cashed his L8/10 w/ Lowry (AVG 32.1)

 
Darius Garland Un 24.5 Pts (-115) | 1u Pointsbet
  • We just saw Garland pop for 30 against the Pelicans and now will be without Mitchell, so why do I like his under?

  • Well w/o Mitchell Garland has gone under 3 straight (AVG 17.6) and shooting just 39% from the floor

  • Efficiency could again be an issue here as on the road Garland is shooting just 37% from the floor and this is a DREADFUL matchup for him

  • The Grizzlies over the L30 days are allowing the lowest FG% in the league to opposing PG

  • And what is Garland so good at? Driving to the rim. He’s 6th in the NBA in drives and and leads the Cavs by a wide margin.

  • He was able to take advantage of this against New Orleans because they’re DEAD LAST in rim efficiency

  • Well now he’s facing the Grizzlies who are #1 in rim protection over both the L30 days and on the szn. On top of that they’re 7th in DEF FT RATE so there won’t be easy baskets for Garland

  • And in his L2 trips to Memphis Garland has managed just 11 & 13 points, both w/o Spida

  • I think coach Jenkins doubles the life out of Garland and makes the other Cavs beat them, and I think that results in a blowout loss, w/ potential for less mins

 
Jalen Brunson Ov 29.5 Points + Rebs (-120) | 1u BetMGM
  • The Wizards started off the year quite well defending PG but it’s been starting to fall apart over the L30 days allowing the 7th most PPG and 5th most 3PM to opposing PG

  • On top of that they’re allowing the 8th most RBG to opposing PG

  • Now they face one of the hottest PGs in basketball, a guy they just allowed 42 P+R to just 3 games ago

  • Brunson has cashed 7 straight (AVG 38.7) and we’re seeing him give his all to make his way onto the All Star Roster

  • More notably Brunson is AVG 40+ mins over his L10 games and w/ 37+ Brunson is 10-3 to the line (AVG 32.9 P+R)

  • There is a chance Beal returns to the lineup tonight and I think that further hurts the Wizards defensively and from a rebounding perspective. Also, Monte Morris simply can’t guard Brunson

  • We all know that the Wizards like to limit the 3 ball, and what that does is allow opponents to feast at the rim

  • Well, Brunson is 4th in the NBA in drives to the rim, and think he is in another prime spot to do DAMAGE here

 
Russell Westbrook Ov 28.5 Pts/Ast (-125) | 1u Pointsbet
  • Westbrook is officially hot right now and faces a Kings team he has dominated both times he’s played them (AVG 35)

  • AD and Lonnie both remain out and w/o the duo he’s cashed his l5/7 games (AVG 31.2), and speficsally he had 38 against Sacramento.

  • But what’s more notable to me is the 34 mins he’s AVG during that span, as w/o the duo and 31+ mins, Russ has cashed his L10/12 (AVG 30.9)

  • The Kings main weakness is protecting the rim sitting 25th in def rim eff over the L30 days and Russ’s main strength is attacking the rim

  • On top of that they’ve allowed the 6th most PPG, 4th highest FG%, and 3rd most APG to Pg over the L30 days/

  • W/ the game total at 245.5, the books know there will be points here and I think Russ gets it done for the third straight time vs Sactown

 
BEAVER'S PLAYS

Jimmy Butler Ov 30.5 PRA (-121) | 1u Caesars

Darius Garland Un 24.5 Pts (-115) | 1u Pointsbet

Jalen Brunson Ov 29.5 PR (-120) | 1u BetMGM

Russell Westbrook Ov 28.5 PA (-125) | 1u Pointsbet

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BA from Cincy
BA from Cincy
Jan 18, 2023

Brunson gonna get at least 27ish. Solid bet.

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