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NBA Props: Friday 1/13

0-1 day on Wednesday after our turner play got voided, but we're back w/ 3 plays to start the weekend right.

3 pretty obscure players, but I feel these offer the best value

Still potentially looking at Nembhard, KJ Martin, and Kessler, just waiting for those lines to drop


AYO DOSUNMU OV 3.5 AST (+136) | .75u FANDUEL
  • Demar Derozan is yet again doubtful for today’s game and while many will understandably rush to bet Zach Lavine overs, I found another angle w/ some INSANE VALUE

  • Dosunmnu has cashed this total once in his l10 games and is 8-32 to the over on the szn (AVG 2.6) so why do I want to take his over 3.5 Assists?

  • Well w/o Derozan on the floor, Dosunmu is 4-2 to the over (AVG 5.5) and conveniently enough he faced OKC in one of those 6 games grabbing 8 Assists

  • But that’s not all as in 3 career games against the Thunder he’s had 8, 9, and 4 assists (AVG 7 APG)

  • Now we’ve seen only 2 games where Caruso is on the floor and Derozan is off the floor, and Dosunmu is 1-1 in those games (AVG 4)

  • But the assist chances are what entices me as he had 8 on Friday against Washington but only converted 3, the avg conv rate is 55-60% so normally he’d have at least 4

  • Meanwhile against the Pelicans last szn Dosunmu had 13 ast chances and converted into 5 Assists. His ADJ AST was 7, also implying he should’ve had more

  • So w/ the chunky plus money we’re getting, I think it’s worth a .75u unit stab to net us a unit here at the big plus price

NAJI MARSHALL OV 22.5 PTS+REBS (-108) | 1u Caesars
  • Now you may be asking yourself, who the hell is Naji Marshall and why on earth am I betting him to nab 23 PRs here, and trust me I get it…

  • But did you know this guy has been an absolute CASH COW w/o BI & Zion?

  • In his L11 games w/o the duo he’s cashed 8 of them (AVG 23.7) and has even been great on the road cashing ⅘ (AVG 24.8)

  • Now he faces a Pistons Defense that is A.) Flatout horrendous and B.) Especially heinous against PF

  • On the season they’ve allowed the most PPG, highest fg%, and 7th most RBG to the position and they’re just as bad over the L30 days

  • The two main guys likely to guard him; Bey and Bogdanovic are flatout liabilities defensively and amongst the Bottom 4 on Detroit

  • If you’re gonna give me low vig on a guy with this good of a hit rate against the worst defense at his position, then I’m taking it everytime

  • Final Note: They just let PJ Tucker grab 14 P+R against them, his 2nd highest total all szn. The guy is avg 7. Think that says all you need to know here

TRE JONES OV 15.5 POINTS (+100) | 1u Draftkings
  • I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the Spurs simply can’t stop covering spreads despite beeing egregiously outmatched by their opponents

  • And during the last 5 games specifically we are starting to see Tre Jones be much more aggressive with his shots hitting 15+ FGA in all 5 (AVG 17.2)

  • As a result he’s cashed his L4/5 (AVG 19.4) and we need to look at how Jones has done w/ similar volume

  • In 7 games w/ 15+ FGA this szn, Jones is AVG 20.1 PPG and is 6-1 to the over and at home he is AVG 21.7 PPG and is 4-0 to the over

  • Now they face the Warriors who are 4-15 ats and 3-14 SU on the road

  • We just saw what the Suns did to Golden State on their own court, and in that game PG Duane Washington had 21 points!

  • But this shouldn’t come as a surprise as the warriors have been dreadful against point guards all year

  • On the season they’ve allowed the 6th most ppg & 3rd most 3PM on the szn, while over the L30 days they’ve allowed 4th most PPG, 6th highest fg% and most 3pm over the L30

  • During this span Jones main shot has been the short mid-range sitting 100th percentile in frequency and the warriors are 27th in efficiency defending that spot over the last month and the total is 240

  • Never thought I’d utter these words, but in Tre Jones we trust


AYO DOSUNMU OV 3.5 AST (+136) | .75u FANDUEL



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