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NBA Props: Friday 1/13

0-1 day on Wednesday after our turner play got voided, but we're back w/ 3 plays to start the weekend right.


3 pretty obscure players, but I feel these offer the best value


Still potentially looking at Nembhard, KJ Martin, and Kessler, just waiting for those lines to drop


WILL UPDATE IN THE COMMUNITY PAGE WHEN MORE LINES DROP!

 
AYO DOSUNMU OV 3.5 AST (+136) | .75u FANDUEL
  • Demar Derozan is yet again doubtful for today’s game and while many will understandably rush to bet Zach Lavine overs, I found another angle w/ some INSANE VALUE

  • Dosunmnu has cashed this total once in his l10 games and is 8-32 to the over on the szn (AVG 2.6) so why do I want to take his over 3.5 Assists?

  • Well w/o Derozan on the floor, Dosunmu is 4-2 to the over (AVG 5.5) and conveniently enough he faced OKC in one of those 6 games grabbing 8 Assists

  • But that’s not all as in 3 career games against the Thunder he’s had 8, 9, and 4 assists (AVG 7 APG)

  • Now we’ve seen only 2 games where Caruso is on the floor and Derozan is off the floor, and Dosunmu is 1-1 in those games (AVG 4)

  • But the assist chances are what entices me as he had 8 on Friday against Washington but only converted 3, the avg conv rate is 55-60% so normally he’d have at least 4

  • Meanwhile against the Pelicans last szn Dosunmu had 13 ast chances and converted into 5 Assists. His ADJ AST was 7, also implying he should’ve had more

  • So w/ the chunky plus money we’re getting, I think it’s worth a .75u unit stab to net us a unit here at the big plus price

 
NAJI MARSHALL OV 22.5 PTS+REBS (-108) | 1u Caesars
  • Now you may be asking yourself, who the hell is Naji Marshall and why on earth am I betting him to nab 23 PRs here, and trust me I get it…

  • But did you know this guy has been an absolute CASH COW w/o BI & Zion?

  • In his L11 games w/o the duo he’s cashed 8 of them (AVG 23.7) and has even been great on the road cashing ⅘ (AVG 24.8)

  • Now he faces a Pistons Defense that is A.) Flatout horrendous and B.) Especially heinous against PF

  • On the season they’ve allowed the most PPG, highest fg%, and 7th most RBG to the position and they’re just as bad over the L30 days

  • The two main guys likely to guard him; Bey and Bogdanovic are flatout liabilities defensively and amongst the Bottom 4 on Detroit

  • If you’re gonna give me low vig on a guy with this good of a hit rate against the worst defense at his position, then I’m taking it everytime

  • Final Note: They just let PJ Tucker grab 14 P+R against them, his 2nd highest total all szn. The guy is avg 7. Think that says all you need to know here

 
TRE JONES OV 15.5 POINTS (+100) | 1u Draftkings
  • I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the Spurs simply can’t stop covering spreads despite beeing egregiously outmatched by their opponents

  • And during the last 5 games specifically we are starting to see Tre Jones be much more aggressive with his shots hitting 15+ FGA in all 5 (AVG 17.2)

  • As a result he’s cashed his L4/5 (AVG 19.4) and we need to look at how Jones has done w/ similar volume

  • In 7 games w/ 15+ FGA this szn, Jones is AVG 20.1 PPG and is 6-1 to the over and at home he is AVG 21.7 PPG and is 4-0 to the over

  • Now they face the Warriors who are 4-15 ats and 3-14 SU on the road

  • We just saw what the Suns did to Golden State on their own court, and in that game PG Duane Washington had 21 points!

  • But this shouldn’t come as a surprise as the warriors have been dreadful against point guards all year

  • On the season they’ve allowed the 6th most ppg & 3rd most 3PM on the szn, while over the L30 days they’ve allowed 4th most PPG, 6th highest fg% and most 3pm over the L30

  • During this span Jones main shot has been the short mid-range sitting 100th percentile in frequency and the warriors are 27th in efficiency defending that spot over the last month and the total is 240

  • Never thought I’d utter these words, but in Tre Jones we trust

 
BEAVER'S PLAYS

AYO DOSUNMU OV 3.5 AST (+136) | .75u FANDUEL

NAJI MARSHALL OV 22.5 PTS+REBS (-115) | 1u DRAFTKINGS

TRE JONES OV 15.5 POINTS (+100) | 1u DRAFTKINGS

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