NBA Props: Tuesday 1/17
Went 0-1 yesterday w/ Smart getting into early foul trouble, but I'm back for VENGEANCe w/ my two top plays for this Tuesday slate.
Jusuf Nurkic Under 14.5 Points (-105) | 1U Draftkings
Nurkic is coming off two 20+ point performances against the Mavericks and while that is great and all, I think this a prime sell high spot
Dallas is allowing the 3rd most PPg and 4th highest FG% to C over the L30 days
Now he faces the Nuggets who are allowing the 4th fewest PPG and 2nd lowest FG% during that span
The L8 starting enters to face Denver have missed their points prop over and I think Nurkic becomes the 9th here
Nurkic has gone under his L4/5 games against Jokic (AVG 11.8) and has missed 3 straight @ Denver (AVG 8.33)
On top of that Nurk has had 5+ fouls all 3 games vs Denver this szn
The nail in the coffin? Nurk has now missed 6 straight on the road (AVG 12.5) and w/ Lillard on the road this szn, Nurkic is 9-2 to the under (AVG 11.3). Safe to say I LOVE the under here
Joel Embiid Ov 31.5 Pts (-124) | 1u Caesars
This may be a bit square, but simply put the Clippers can’t guard an opposing center to save their lives.
Over the L30 days, they’re allowing the 2nd most PPG and 2nd highest fg% to opposing Centers and it’s showing in the box scores
Recent centers against LA?
Gobert w/ 25 ; Bam w/ 31 ; Turner w/ 34 ; Isaish Stewart w/ 21 ; Embiid w/ 44 ; Plumlee w/ 18
The list goes on and Embiid is by far the best of that bunch
He’s cashed his L5/6 games w/ Harden on the road (AVG 37.3 PPG) and his L3/4 against Zubac (AVG 36.7)
His only miss vs Zubac came w/ just 28 mins in a blowout and he still had 27
Love the value here, in Embiid we trust
Fine w/ this at 32.5 as well, pretty split between 31.5/32.5 amongst books