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NBA Props: Tuesday 1/17

Went 0-1 yesterday w/ Smart getting into early foul trouble, but I'm back for VENGEANCe w/ my two top plays for this Tuesday slate.

 
Jusuf Nurkic Under 14.5 Points (-105) | 1U Draftkings
  • Nurkic is coming off two 20+ point performances against the Mavericks and while that is great and all, I think this a prime sell high spot

  • Dallas is allowing the 3rd most PPg and 4th highest FG% to C over the L30 days

  • Now he faces the Nuggets who are allowing the 4th fewest PPG and 2nd lowest FG% during that span

  • The L8 starting enters to face Denver have missed their points prop over and I think Nurkic becomes the 9th here

  • Nurkic has gone under his L4/5 games against Jokic (AVG 11.8) and has missed 3 straight @ Denver (AVG 8.33)

  • On top of that Nurk has had 5+ fouls all 3 games vs Denver this szn

  • The nail in the coffin? Nurk has now missed 6 straight on the road (AVG 12.5) and w/ Lillard on the road this szn, Nurkic is 9-2 to the under (AVG 11.3). Safe to say I LOVE the under here

 
Joel Embiid Ov 31.5 Pts (-124) | 1u Caesars
  • This may be a bit square, but simply put the Clippers can’t guard an opposing center to save their lives.

  • Over the L30 days, they’re allowing the 2nd most PPG and 2nd highest fg% to opposing Centers and it’s showing in the box scores

  • Recent centers against LA?

    • Gobert w/ 25 ; Bam w/ 31 ; Turner w/ 34 ; Isaish Stewart w/ 21 ; Embiid w/ 44 ; Plumlee w/ 18

  • The list goes on and Embiid is by far the best of that bunch

  • He’s cashed his L5/6 games w/ Harden on the road (AVG 37.3 PPG) and his L3/4 against Zubac (AVG 36.7)

  • His only miss vs Zubac came w/ just 28 mins in a blowout and he still had 27

  • Love the value here, in Embiid we trust

  • Fine w/ this at 32.5 as well, pretty split between 31.5/32.5 amongst books

 
BEAVER'S PLAYS

Jusuf Nurkic Under 14.5 Points (-105) | 1u Draftkings

Joel Embiid Ov 31.5 Pts (-124) | 1u Barstool

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BA from Cincy
BA from Cincy
17. tammik. 2023

I took it earlier..

Tykkää

BA from Cincy
BA from Cincy
17. tammik. 2023

Don't

Tykkää

BA from Cincy
BA from Cincy
17. tammik. 2023

Got over 40 against em last game. Didn't mean much but has a good match up

Tykkää
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