NBA Props: Tuesday 1/10
Tough 1-2 day w/ Demar getting hurt, but can't predict injuries.
That break will come around for us and I think that starts today w/ 2 plays including my 1.5u Bet of the Day! LET'S EAT
WILL UPDATE IN THE COMMUNITY PAGE IF I ADD ANY OTHERS!
KAWHI LEONARD OV 31.5 PTS+REBS (-120) | 1.5U DRAFTKINGS
PG13 IS OUT AGAIN TONIGHT AND IN KAWHI’S L2 GAMES W/O HIM AND 30+ MINS HE SMASHED THE TOTAL BOTH TIMES (AVG 38 P+R AND 24.5 FGA)
AND GOING BACK TO 2021, KAWHI HAS CASHED HIS L8/11 GAMES W/ 30+ MINUTES W/O PG (AVG 28.2 PPG AND 20.2 FGA)
THE FGA IS HUGE HERE BECAUSE FORWARDS W/ 20+ FGA VS THE MAVS ARE 9-2 TO THE OVER (AVG 31 PPG!)
AND W/O DORIAN FINNEY SMITH THIS PROBLEM ONLY LOOMS LARGER BECAUSE LOOK AT THE MAVS STARTING 5 TODAY
I MEAN HONESTLY, WHO ON EARTH IS GOING TO GUARD THIS GUY? THJ?
KAWHI’S MAIN SHOT IS THE MID RANGE AND OVER THE LAST 3 WEEKS DALLAS IS 25TH IN MID RANGE EFFICIENCY
IN HIS L2 GAMES AGAINST DALLAS W/O PG HE HAD 43 P+R AND 47 P+R
DALLAS IS ALLOWING THE MOST RBG TO OPPOSING SF OVER THE L30 DAYS, SO LET’S MAKE IT A COMBO AND ADD SOME VALUE
I THINK WE SEE KAWHI PLAY SOME HERO BALL TODAY AND CASH THE NUMBER
WOULD PLAY THIS TO 33.5 AT 1U
DONOVAN MITCHELL OV 27.5 POINTS/3+ THREES SGP (+100) | 1U DRAFTKINGS OR BETMGM
SHOOTING GUARDS HAVE BODIED THE JAZZ INTO ANOTHER PLANET ALL SZN
THEY’RE ALLOWING THE MOST PPG AND 10TH HIGHEST FG% ON THE SZN. OVER THE L30 DAYS THEY’VE ALLOWED THE 2ND MOST PPG, 2ND HIGHEST FG%, 6TH MOST 3PM
THE L7/8 SG TO FACE THE JAZZ HAVE HIT THEIR OVER AND GUYS LIKE LAVINE, GREEN, HUERTER, AND HERRO ALL HAD 29+ AND 3+ THREES
NOW MITCHELL MAYE BE COLD OVER HIS L10 GOING UNDER IN 7/10 AND AVG 26.7 PPG
BUT ON THE ROAD W/ 31+ MINUTES, MITCHELL IS 12-3 TO THE OVER (AVG 29.7)
YEAH SPIDA SCORED ONLY 23 IN HIS LAST GAME AGAINST THE CAVS BUT WE NEED CONTEXT!
HE ONLY PLAYED 23 MINUTES AND SHOT 8-12 FROM THE FIELD AND 4-5 FROM 3PT
THE CAVS ARE JUST 3-11 ATS IN THEIR L14 ON THE AND ARE ONLY 3.5-POINT FAVORITES AND W/O A BLOWOUT I THINK WE SEE MITCHELL GO OFF AGAINST UTAH
I’M NOT TAKING THE REGULAR LINE BECAUSE THIS MOVED FROM 27.5 TO 29.5 ON SOME BOOKS OVER NIGHT AND 27.5 IS A KEY NUMBER FOR HIS HIT RATE
IN GAMES W/ 28+ POINTS THIS SEASON, MITCHELL IS 17-5 TO THE HITTING 3+ THREES, AND AT THE (+100) PRICE WE’RE GETTING, I WILL TAKE MY CHANCES
JIMMY BUTLER OV 14.5 REBS + AST (-115) | 1U BET365
A LITTLE TRICK I LEARNED LAST SEASON IS WHEN BAM AND LOWRY ARE OUT, YOU BE BUTLER’S R+A OVER
IN THESE SPOTS GOING BACK TO LAST SZN, BUTLER IS 4-0 TO THE OVER (AVG 18.8) AND WHILE MANY SEE THIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BET THE POINTS OVER W/ INCREASED VOLUME, I THINK THE THUNDER ARE GONNA DEFEND HIM QUITE WELL W/ DORT AND DOUBLE TEAMS
THAT SHOULD LEAD TO PLENTY OF ASSIST CHANCES AND IN HIS LONE GAME W/O THE DUO THIS SZN, BUTLER HAD 38 COMBINED REB+AST CHANCES!
CONSIDERING THOSE CONVERT AT A 55-60% CLIP, THAT PROJECTS TO 20 AT A 55% CONVERSION RATE AND HE HAD 17 R+A IN THAT GAME
THE THUNDER ARE IN THE BOTTOM 5 OF BOTH REBOUNDS AND ASSISTS ALLOWED OVER THEIR L10 GAMES AND I THINK WE SEE WHY BUTLER IS THE MAIN MAN IN MIAMI
THERE IS A REASON THIS WAS PLUS MONEY ON BOOKS WHEN I STARTED WRITING THIS 3 MINS AGO AND NOW IS ALREADY AT (-151) ON CAESARS
SUNS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 108.5 (+100) | 1U BETMGM
THE SUNS OFFENSE HAS STRUGGLED TREMENDOUSLY WITHOUT DEVIN BOOKER THIS SEASON
W/ HIM THE SUNS OWN AN OFF FTG OF 118.6 WHICH WOULD BE 1ST IN THE NBA
BUT W/O BOOKER THAT FALLS TO 109.7 WHICH SITS 4TH WORST IN THE NBA
IN THEIR L6 GAMES SINCE BOOKER WENT DOWN THE TEAM IS AVERAGING 95.1 PPG GOING UNDER IN ALL 6
NOW THEY HAVE TO FACE THE WARRIORS AND WHILE MANY MAY LOOK AT THE FIRST TWO MEETINGS W/ BOOKER AND THE 130+ THEY DROPPED TWICE AT HOME AND GET SCARED OFF, THAT WAS WITH DEVIN BOOKER AND AT HOME
AT GOLDEN STATE, THE WARRIORS ARE THE 2ND BEST DEFENSE IN BASKETBALL AND 6TH BEST OVER THE L30 DAYS
THE SUNS HAVE MADE 3 VISITS TO GOLDEN STATE WITHOUT DEVIN BOOKER IN HIS CAREER AND THEY ARE 0-3 TO THE LINE (AVG 95 PPG)
OVERALL THEY ARE 2-5 TO THE LINE IN THESE SPOTS (AVG 102)
I DIDN’T EVEN GET TO MENTION THAT CHRIS PAUL IS OUT OF THIS GAME AND IF YOU THOUGHT THE SUNS LOOKED ANEMIC W/O BOOK, GET READY TO WATCH THE SUNS W/O BOTH OF THEM.
ADD IN THE FACT THAT CAM PAYNE, PROBABLY ONE OF THE BEST SCORERS ON THE TEAM RIGHT NOW IS ALSO HURT, SO LANDRY SHAMET IS GONNA BE RUNNING POINT AND I’M READY TO SLAM A UNIT ON THE UNDER, ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW VIG
FINAL NOTE: AYTON WAS JUST ANNOUNCED OUT WHILE SHAMET AND CRAIG ARE NOW BOTH QUESTIONABLE… DARIO SARIC IS IN THE LINEUP. THAT’S ALL I NEED TO SAY