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NBA Props: Thursday 1/5

We looked to be in utter peril heading into the 2nd quarter of the Warriors game, but Looney went APE SHIT on the boards and we only dropped -0.02 units.


Now Jokic has 25.5 on Barstool, 26.5 on Fanduel & Pointsbet, and is yet to have a line on DK/Caesars/MGM. I'm gonna post it at 26.5, as I expect that to be the consensus line for most people on the site


All Plays are added, let's have a great day!

 
NIKOLA JOKIC OV 26.5 POINTS (-115) | 1U POINTSBET
  • JOKIC IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST POSTER BOYS FOR HOME/AWAY SPLITS ON THE PLANET AND FINDS HIMSELF BACK HOME WHERE HE’S AVG 26.8 PPG AND IS 6-2 TO THE OVER IN HIS L8 (AVG 30.7)

  • THAT IS FUCKING INSANE! NOW I UNDERSTAND MURRAY AND MPJ BEING IN THE MIX CHANGE A FEW THINGS… BUT EVEN W/ MURRAY, JOKIC HAS CASHED HIS L5/6 AT HOME (AVG 33.8) AND HIS L4/5 AT HOME W/ MPJ (AVG 30)

  • AND BOTH MURRAY AND MPJ HAVE HORRIBLE MATCHUPS HERE AS THE CLIPS ARE A TOP 4 DEFENSE VS BOTH PG & SF OVER THE L2W

  • BUT GUESS WHO HAS A GOLDEN MATCHUP? THE JOKER

  • OVER THE L2W THE CLIPPERS ARE ALLOWING THE MOST PPG TO CENTERS AND AS A RESULT THE L6/7 TO FACE THE CLIPPERS HAVE CASHED THIS TOTAL W/ THE TRIO OF ADEBAYO, TURNER, AND EMBIID AVG 36.33 PPG

  • AND IT GETS EVEN BETTER FOR JOKIC BECAUSE THIS DUDE LOVES PLAYING ON 2D REST

  • GOING BACK TO LAST SZN, JOKIC HAS NOW CASHED HIS L10/13 GAMES ON 2D REST (AVG 30.7) AND IS 2-0 THIS SZN (AVG 30.5 PPG)

  • ADD IN THE FACT THAT IN JOKIC’S CASHED HIS L4/6 VS ZUBAC (AVG 29.1) AND CRUSHED HIM IN HIS L2 @ HOME (AVG 39.5)

  • I THINK WE’RE GETTING A CHEAPER PRICE ON THIS DUE TO BOTH MPJ AND MURRAY BEING ACTIVE, AND I THINK IT ONLY OFFERS MORE VALUE HERE FOR US

  • THIS LINE WAS AT 24.5 LAST NIGHT AND NOW POINTSBET AND FANDUEL HAVE IT AT 26.5!

  • MEANWHILE, DRAFTKINGS HASN’T EVEN DROPPED A LINE

  • SEEMS THEY ARE TERRIFIED OF THE JOKER HAVING A GOOD GAME HERE

 
JARRED VANDERBILT OV 13.5 PTS+REBS (-118) | 1U FANDUEL
  • JARRED VANDERBILT IS MORE SO KNOWN FOR HIS DEFENSIVE EFFORTS, BUT I LOVE THE SPOT FOR HIM OFFENSIVELY AND ON THE GLASS

  • FIRST OFF HE HAS SOME EXCELLENT RECENT HISTORY AGAINST THIS ROCKETS TEAM

  • HE’S CASHED HIS L4/5 GAMES AGAINST THEM W/ 19+ MINS (AVG 20.5 PTS + REBS) AND HIS MOST RECENT CASH CAME IN JUST 19 MINS WHEN HE FOULED OUT!

  • CONSIDERING HIS PREV HISTORY VS HOUSTON AND HIM NOT SNIFFING FOUL TROUBLE OVER HIS L10, I THINK HE PLAYS NORMAL MINUTES HERE

  • AND OVER HIS L7 GAMES HE’S AVERAGING 25 MINS

  • EVEN W/ JUST 22+ MINUTES, VANDERBILT IS 22-8 TO THE OVER ON THE SZN (AVG 17.5) AND ON THE ROAD IS 13-5 TO THE OVER (AVG 17.3)

  • NOW HE FACES A ROCKETS TEAM THAT IS ALLOWING THE 9TH MOST PPG AND RBG TO PF OVER THE L30 DAYS AND OVER THE L2W THEY’RE ALLOWING THE 7TH MOST PPG

  • THE ICING ON THE CAKE? THE MONEY SPOT FOR VANDY THIS SZN HAS BEEN ON THE ROAD W/ 1D REST WHERE HE’S 9-1 TO THE OVER W/ 21+ MINS (AVG 17.2)

 
PAOLO BANCHERO UNDER 20.5 POINTS (-115) | 1U FANDUEL
  • WE’RE GETTING BANCHERO IN A NICE SELL-HIGH SPOT COMING OFF A 25-POINT PERFORMANCE W/ NO FRANZ WAGNER AGAINST A BOTTOM 5 DEFENSE VS POWER FORWARDS

  • WELL I THINK HE’S IN FOR A REALITY CHECK TODAY, AS MEMPHIS IS A TOP 5 DEFENSE AGAINST PF ALLOWING THE 5TH FEWEST PPG AND LOWEST FG%

  • BANCHERO HAS FACED TOP 5 DEFENSES VS PF 5 TIMES THIS SZN AND IS 4-1 TO THE UNDER (AVG 18)

  • 0D REST IS HIS WORST SPLIT AS HE’S SHOOTING JUST 39.5% FROM THE FIELD AND AVG 17.8. HE’S MISSED 3 STRAIGHT IN THESE SPOTS (AVG 14)

  • AND IT GETS EVEN WORSE FOR BANCHERO BECAUSE THIS IS A HORRENDOUS MATCHUP FOR WHAT HE WANTS TO DO FROM A SCORING PERSPECTIVE

  • 79% OF BANCHERO’S SHOTS COME AT THE RIM OR FROM MID-RANGE AND THE GRIZZLIES D OVER THE L30 DAYS ARE 1ST IN RIM EFF AND 3RD IN MID EFF

  • HE WILL LIKELY HAVE JAREN JACKSON AND/OR BROOKS ON HIM AT ALL TIMES AND THOSE TWO HAVE A COMBINED DEF RAPTOR RATING OF 8.1, IMPLYING THEY TAKE 8.1 POINTS AWAY FROM OPPONENTS PER 100/POSS

  • ADD IN THE FACT THAT CARTER AND HARRIS NO LONGER HAVE MINUTE RESTRICTIONS AND SUGGS MAY RETURN, AND HE MAY SEE A SOLID DROP IN VOLUME

  • CONSIDERING THE GRIZZLIES OWN THE EAST AND BLOWOUTS ARE A REGULAR EVEN ON THE ROAD, I THINK EVERYTHING IS WORKING AGAINST BANCHERO HERE AND IS A MUST-FADE THIS EVENING

 
BEAVER'S PLAYS

NIKOLA JOKIC OV 26.5 POINTS (-115) | 1U POINTSBET

JARRED VANDERBILT OV 13.5 PTS+REBS (-118) | 1U FANDUEL

PAOLO BANCHERO UNDER 20.5 POINTS (-115) | 1U FANDUEL

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