NBA Props: Thursday 1/5

AJ Bascone
Jan 5, 2023
3 min read

We looked to be in utter peril heading into the 2nd quarter of the Warriors game, but Looney went APE SHIT on the boards and we only dropped -0.02 units.

Now Jokic has 25.5 on Barstool, 26.5 on Fanduel & Pointsbet, and is yet to have a line on DK/Caesars/MGM. I'm gonna post it at 26.5, as I expect that to be the consensus line for most people on the site

All Plays are added, let's have a great day!

NIKOLA JOKIC OV 26.5 POINTS (-115) | 1U POINTSBET

JOKIC IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST POSTER BOYS FOR HOME/AWAY SPLITS ON THE PLANET AND FINDS HIMSELF BACK HOME WHERE HE’S AVG 26.8 PPG AND IS 6-2 TO THE OVER IN HIS L8 (AVG 30.7)
THAT IS FUCKING INSANE! NOW I UNDERSTAND MURRAY AND MPJ BEING IN THE MIX CHANGE A FEW THINGS… BUT EVEN W/ MURRAY, JOKIC HAS CASHED HIS L5/6 AT HOME (AVG 33.8) AND HIS L4/5 AT HOME W/ MPJ (AVG 30)
AND BOTH MURRAY AND MPJ HAVE HORRIBLE MATCHUPS HERE AS THE CLIPS ARE A TOP 4 DEFENSE VS BOTH PG & SF OVER THE L2W
BUT GUESS WHO HAS A GOLDEN MATCHUP? THE JOKER
OVER THE L2W THE CLIPPERS ARE ALLOWING THE MOST PPG TO CENTERS AND AS A RESULT THE L6/7 TO FACE THE CLIPPERS HAVE CASHED THIS TOTAL W/ THE TRIO OF ADEBAYO, TURNER, AND EMBIID AVG 36.33 PPG
AND IT GETS EVEN BETTER FOR JOKIC BECAUSE THIS DUDE LOVES PLAYING ON 2D REST
GOING BACK TO LAST SZN, JOKIC HAS NOW CASHED HIS L10/13 GAMES ON 2D REST (AVG 30.7) AND IS 2-0 THIS SZN (AVG 30.5 PPG)
ADD IN THE FACT THAT IN JOKIC’S CASHED HIS L4/6 VS ZUBAC (AVG 29.1) AND CRUSHED HIM IN HIS L2 @ HOME (AVG 39.5)
I THINK WE’RE GETTING A CHEAPER PRICE ON THIS DUE TO BOTH MPJ AND MURRAY BEING ACTIVE, AND I THINK IT ONLY OFFERS MORE VALUE HERE FOR US
THIS LINE WAS AT 24.5 LAST NIGHT AND NOW POINTSBET AND FANDUEL HAVE IT AT 26.5!
MEANWHILE, DRAFTKINGS HASN’T EVEN DROPPED A LINE
SEEMS THEY ARE TERRIFIED OF THE JOKER HAVING A GOOD GAME HERE

JARRED VANDERBILT OV 13.5 PTS+REBS (-118) | 1U FANDUEL

JARRED VANDERBILT IS MORE SO KNOWN FOR HIS DEFENSIVE EFFORTS, BUT I LOVE THE SPOT FOR HIM OFFENSIVELY AND ON THE GLASS
FIRST OFF HE HAS SOME EXCELLENT RECENT HISTORY AGAINST THIS ROCKETS TEAM
HE’S CASHED HIS L4/5 GAMES AGAINST THEM W/ 19+ MINS (AVG 20.5 PTS + REBS) AND HIS MOST RECENT CASH CAME IN JUST 19 MINS WHEN HE FOULED OUT!
CONSIDERING HIS PREV HISTORY VS HOUSTON AND HIM NOT SNIFFING FOUL TROUBLE OVER HIS L10, I THINK HE PLAYS NORMAL MINUTES HERE
AND OVER HIS L7 GAMES HE’S AVERAGING 25 MINS
EVEN W/ JUST 22+ MINUTES, VANDERBILT IS 22-8 TO THE OVER ON THE SZN (AVG 17.5) AND ON THE ROAD IS 13-5 TO THE OVER (AVG 17.3)
NOW HE FACES A ROCKETS TEAM THAT IS ALLOWING THE 9TH MOST PPG AND RBG TO PF OVER THE L30 DAYS AND OVER THE L2W THEY’RE ALLOWING THE 7TH MOST PPG
THE ICING ON THE CAKE? THE MONEY SPOT FOR VANDY THIS SZN HAS BEEN ON THE ROAD W/ 1D REST WHERE HE’S 9-1 TO THE OVER W/ 21+ MINS (AVG 17.2)

PAOLO BANCHERO UNDER 20.5 POINTS (-115) | 1U FANDUEL

WE’RE GETTING BANCHERO IN A NICE SELL-HIGH SPOT COMING OFF A 25-POINT PERFORMANCE W/ NO FRANZ WAGNER AGAINST A BOTTOM 5 DEFENSE VS POWER FORWARDS
WELL I THINK HE’S IN FOR A REALITY CHECK TODAY, AS MEMPHIS IS A TOP 5 DEFENSE AGAINST PF ALLOWING THE 5TH FEWEST PPG AND LOWEST FG%
BANCHERO HAS FACED TOP 5 DEFENSES VS PF 5 TIMES THIS SZN AND IS 4-1 TO THE UNDER (AVG 18)
0D REST IS HIS WORST SPLIT AS HE’S SHOOTING JUST 39.5% FROM THE FIELD AND AVG 17.8. HE’S MISSED 3 STRAIGHT IN THESE SPOTS (AVG 14)
AND IT GETS EVEN WORSE FOR BANCHERO BECAUSE THIS IS A HORRENDOUS MATCHUP FOR WHAT HE WANTS TO DO FROM A SCORING PERSPECTIVE
79% OF BANCHERO’S SHOTS COME AT THE RIM OR FROM MID-RANGE AND THE GRIZZLIES D OVER THE L30 DAYS ARE 1ST IN RIM EFF AND 3RD IN MID EFF
HE WILL LIKELY HAVE JAREN JACKSON AND/OR BROOKS ON HIM AT ALL TIMES AND THOSE TWO HAVE A COMBINED DEF RAPTOR RATING OF 8.1, IMPLYING THEY TAKE 8.1 POINTS AWAY FROM OPPONENTS PER 100/POSS
ADD IN THE FACT THAT CARTER AND HARRIS NO LONGER HAVE MINUTE RESTRICTIONS AND SUGGS MAY RETURN, AND HE MAY SEE A SOLID DROP IN VOLUME
CONSIDERING THE GRIZZLIES OWN THE EAST AND BLOWOUTS ARE A REGULAR EVEN ON THE ROAD, I THINK EVERYTHING IS WORKING AGAINST BANCHERO HERE AND IS A MUST-FADE THIS EVENING