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NBA Props: Thursday 1/19

Split day yesterday was ass, but we are coming for ours this evening


WILL UPDATE IN COMMUNITY PAGE IF I FIND ANYTHING ELSE

 
Jaden Ivey Ov 24.5 PRA (-109) | 1u Barstool
  • Ivey has seen a recent surge in minutes and at first, I couldn’t figure out why, but I’ve now come to realize it’s due to Cory Joseph’s injury

  • W/o Joseph on the court, Ivey is AVG 34 mins and as a result, sees a huge boost in production. In these spots, he is 9-2 to his PRA over (AVG 27.6)

  • And this is pretty notable as even w/ Joseph he had 29 PRA against Chicago on the road already

  • Not only that but guarding SG has been a struggle for Chicago for most of the season allowing the 5th most PPG & most APG to opposing 2’s

  • Now I know this is in Paris so there may be some unforeseen variables in play, but the line is still at 236!

  • At the low vig, I will take my chances here to get the blood flowing this afternoon

 
Draymond Green Ov 6.5 Assists (+110) | 1u Draftkings
  • Steph Curry is back on the court and after a prolonged period of misses without him, Draymond is back in a prime position to rack up the dimes

  • W/ Curry on the road, Green has now cashed his L8/11 (AVG 7.2) and ⅔ games on the road since Curry returned (AVG 7)

  • Now he’s set to face a Boston team whose defense i feel is still a bit overvalued from how good they were last szn

  • Boston is just 17th in def eff in the month of January and on top of that, they’re 24th in 3P def eff

  • If you know the Warriors, then you know they thrive on the 3 ball

  • I think Draymond is in a prime position to set Curry/Thompson/Poole up on the outside and we’ve seen him do it before @ Boston

  • Including the Finals series from last year, Draymond has cashed his L7/8 @ Boston (AVG 7.3).

  • Now if this was vigged up I’d think twice, but at the plus money we’re getting, I’m willing to take a shot here, especially w/ the total at 239!

 
Joel Embiid Ov 32.5 Points (-120) | 1u BET365
  • Joel Embiid treated us quite nicely last game and I think it continues against Nurk who is struggling down low

  • Over the L30 days they’re allowing the 4th most PPG, 10th highest fg%, and 6th most 3PM to opposing Centers and it’s gotten even worse over the L2W

  • Some recent centers against Portland?

    • Jokic w/ 36, Wood w/ 23, J Allen w/ 24, Wendell Carter w/ 20, and Jokic again w/ 29. All 5 smashed their points total over

  • Now we got Embiid who w/ Harden who elevates his game even further cashing his L8/10 (AVG 37.8 PPG!)

  • Embiid faced the Blazers twice last year and managed 37 & 35 points, and while neither was against Nurkic due to injury, he hasn’t faced him in a full game since 2017

  • 2017 Embiid was nowhere NEAR the level of dominance of current Embiid and yet he still managed 28 & 29 points in those 2 games

  • I just don’t think Nurkic can handle him down low and gets into foul trouble early and if he has Eubanks one on one, I truly wish the Blazers good luck stopping him

 
Gary Trent Jr. Ov 2.5 Threes (-125) | 1u Bet365
  • Gary Trent Jr. is officially BACK and it’s showing up on the stat sheets for sure

  • Over his L10 games he’s AVG 3.2 3PM per game, but take out one where he got injured vs ATL and he is 7-2 to this over (AVG 3.6)

  • But what’s more notable to me is the minutes as he’s played 36+ in 8 of 9 games where he was fully healthy (AVG 39.5)

  • Well with those type of minutes, Trent easily SMASHES this line. Even w/ just 30+ mins Trent has cashied his l8/10 road games (AVG 3.8)

  • But what if we bump that to 37, 3 less than his he’s AVG over his L9 full games? Well he is 10-0 to the line (AVG 4)!

  • And this is a pretty golden matchup for him as he has SONNED the T-wolves in the 3 point department in 3 straight games against them (AVG 5)

  • W/ these mins, Trent has never gone under 8 3PA (AVG 9.8) and SG vs Minnesota w/ 8+ 3PA are 15-3 to the over (AVG 4.1)

  • Minnesota is 24th in 3PT efficiency in the month of january so far, and believe Trent is in another prime spot to cash

  • If this gets past (-140) I’d bet his points line, think he is more than capable of hitting that line as well in this spot

  • I’m personally gonna throw .5u on over 3.5 3PM (+205) as well

 
BEAVER'S PLAYS

Jaden Ivey Ov 24.5 PRA (-109) | 1u Barstool

Draymond Green Ov 6.5 Assists (+110) | 1u Draftkings

Joel Embiid Ov 32.5 Points (-120) | 1u Pointsbet

Gary Trent Jr. Ov 2.5 Threes (-125) | 1u Bet365

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4 comentarios


BA from Cincy
BA from Cincy
19 ene 2023

Looks like some winners. Let get it$$$

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BA from Cincy
BA from Cincy
19 ene 2023
Contestando a

Seems solid. Is Derozen playing?

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BA from Cincy
BA from Cincy
19 ene 2023

Got the trent and embiid. Should be solid.

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