Jan 19, 2023

NBA Props: Thursday 1/19

Split day yesterday was ass, but we are coming for ours this evening

WILL UPDATE IN COMMUNITY PAGE IF I FIND ANYTHING ELSE

Ivey has seen a recent surge in minutes and at first, I couldn’t figure out why, but I’ve now come to realize it’s due to Cory Joseph’s injury
W/o Joseph on the court, Ivey is AVG 34 mins and as a result, sees a huge boost in production. In these spots, he is 9-2 to his PRA over (AVG 27.6)
And this is pretty notable as even w/ Joseph he had 29 PRA against Chicago on the road already
Not only that but guarding SG has been a struggle for Chicago for most of the season allowing the 5th most PPG & most APG to opposing 2’s
Now I know this is in Paris so there may be some unforeseen variables in play, but the line is still at 236!
At the low vig, I will take my chances here to get the blood flowing this afternoon

Steph Curry is back on the court and after a prolonged period of misses without him, Draymond is back in a prime position to rack up the dimes
W/ Curry on the road, Green has now cashed his L8/11 (AVG 7.2) and ⅔ games on the road since Curry returned (AVG 7)
Now he’s set to face a Boston team whose defense i feel is still a bit overvalued from how good they were last szn
Boston is just 17th in def eff in the month of January and on top of that, they’re 24th in 3P def eff
If you know the Warriors, then you know they thrive on the 3 ball
I think Draymond is in a prime position to set Curry/Thompson/Poole up on the outside and we’ve seen him do it before @ Boston
Including the Finals series from last year, Draymond has cashed his L7/8 @ Boston (AVG 7.3).
Now if this was vigged up I’d think twice, but at the plus money we’re getting, I’m willing to take a shot here, especially w/ the total at 239!

Joel Embiid treated us quite nicely last game and I think it continues against Nurk who is struggling down low
Over the L30 days they’re allowing the 4th most PPG, 10th highest fg%, and 6th most 3PM to opposing Centers and it’s gotten even worse over the L2W
Some recent centers against Portland?
- Jokic w/ 36, Wood w/ 23, J Allen w/ 24, Wendell Carter w/ 20, and Jokic again w/ 29. All 5 smashed their points total over
Now we got Embiid who w/ Harden who elevates his game even further cashing his L8/10 (AVG 37.8 PPG!)
Embiid faced the Blazers twice last year and managed 37 & 35 points, and while neither was against Nurkic due to injury, he hasn’t faced him in a full game since 2017
2017 Embiid was nowhere NEAR the level of dominance of current Embiid and yet he still managed 28 & 29 points in those 2 games
I just don’t think Nurkic can handle him down low and gets into foul trouble early and if he has Eubanks one on one, I truly wish the Blazers good luck stopping him

Gary Trent Jr. is officially BACK and it’s showing up on the stat sheets for sure
Over his L10 games he’s AVG 3.2 3PM per game, but take out one where he got injured vs ATL and he is 7-2 to this over (AVG 3.6)
But what’s more notable to me is the minutes as he’s played 36+ in 8 of 9 games where he was fully healthy (AVG 39.5)
Well with those type of minutes, Trent easily SMASHES this line. Even w/ just 30+ mins Trent has cashied his l8/10 road games (AVG 3.8)
But what if we bump that to 37, 3 less than his he’s AVG over his L9 full games? Well he is 10-0 to the line (AVG 4)!
And this is a pretty golden matchup for him as he has SONNED the T-wolves in the 3 point department in 3 straight games against them (AVG 5)
W/ these mins, Trent has never gone under 8 3PA (AVG 9.8) and SG vs Minnesota w/ 8+ 3PA are 15-3 to the over (AVG 4.1)
Minnesota is 24th in 3PT efficiency in the month of january so far, and believe Trent is in another prime spot to cash
If this gets past (-140) I’d bet his points line, think he is more than capable of hitting that line as well in this spot
I’m personally gonna throw .5u on over 3.5 3PM (+205) as well

Kyle Kirms