top of page

NBA Props: Saturday 1/21

Back on the path of redemption and while it's been tough, we're showing no signs of quit


Got Three prop plays for NBA today

 
Joel Embiid Ov 4.5 Assists (+105) | 1u Draftkings (Risky)

IF YOU DON'T WANT TO TAKE THE GAMBLE OF LOSING A UNIT, WOULD WAIT FOR THE INJURY NEWS AND STILL PLAY THIS AT 5.5


  • It’s pretty much all but certain that Harden sits out tonight as he was listed questionable w/ injury management, and then didn’t participate in shootarounds this afternoon

  • Usually if you’re questionable followed by inactivity in shootarounds, most sit that game out 90% of time. The line move from -3.5 to a pick em reflects that

  • And the last time he was listed w/ injury management as questionable, he sat out and Embiid snagged 10 Assists!

  • And that provides a significant edge up on the competition for us as some books still have this at (+105). Meanwhile, smarter books like Fanduel already moved it to (-111)

  • W/o Harden on the court, Embiid is AVG an unholy 6.6 APG cashing his L9/10 and has failed to go under 6 assists in 8 straight in these scenarios

  • Meanwhile we’ve got a Kings team that allowed Sengun to grab 10 & 7, Jokic to grab 11 & 6 all in the past month

  • During this span they’ve allowed the 2nd most APG to opposing Centers

  • Meanwhile, in his L2 games against Sacramento w/o Harden he’s managed 6 assists in both games

  • I’m going to play it a bit ballsy and bet this now because I anticipate this moving to 5.5 and possibly being vigged to the over w/ Harden being announced out

 
Kyle Anderson Ov 15.5 Pts/Ast (-125) | 1u BET365
  • I hate watching this dude play basketball but he’s ON FIRE right now

  • If you didn’t know, Kyle Anderson despite playing the 4, has been the main man responsible for setting up AST for Minnesota

  • He’s AVG 6.3 APG this month leading Minnesota and also AVG 9.4 POT AST per game, also leading Minnesota

  • He’s set to face a Rockets team that has struggled quite badly against opposing PF

  • They’ve allowed the 2nd most PPG, 3rd most 3PM, and 3rd most APG to the position over the last month and we’ve seen him have success against them before

  • He’s cashed his L3/4 vs Houston w/ 30+ mins (AVG 19.7) and his last miss came earlier this month @ Houston w/ just 4 FGA

  • Considering he’s AVG 8 FGA over his l10 and has had 9+ in 3 straight, I think we see him regress to his normal volume against Houston

  • And that’s great news because 77% of Anderson’s shots come at the rim or from short mid-range

  • And The Rockets defensive weakness this month? 28th in rim efficiency and 22nd in short mid-range efficiency

  • The icing on the cake? I mentioned Anderson is AVG 33 MPg over his L10 and w/ 30+ and w/o KAT on the floor, he’s cashed 3 straight (AVG 23.33) and his l5/7 (AVG 20.1)

  • W/ how fast-paced the Rockets are, I think this is yet another smash spot for Anderson here

  • Fine w/ betting this at 16.5

 
Marcus Smart Ov 24.5 PRA (-112) | 1u Barstool
  • Jayson Tatum is out for today’s contest vs toronto and as a result comes a prime opportunity for Smart to see a boost in production

  • Through 5 games w/ Brown on the floor and Tatum off of it, Smart is 5-0 to this line (AVG 33.3) going back to last szn

  • One of those games w/ Tatum off the floor also had Brown on the sidelines, and smart dropped 42, conveniently against Toronto

  • So while I don’t expect another BOMB like that, I think he’s more than capable of cashing this line against Toronto

  • He’s done it 3 straight times against Toronto even w/ the duo of Brown/Tatum in two of those games (AVG 35)

  • And Toronto is struggling quite badly against opposing PG right now allowing the 8th most PPG, 5th highest FG%, 10th most 3PM, and 9th most APG

  • Some recent PGs against Toronto? D-Lo w/ 32, Holiday w/ 50, Brunson w/ 35, Murray w/ 41, Young w/ 38, Lamelo w/ 43 & 42, Lillard w/ 44

  • Now one could say they’ve faced a death row in terms of the talent of these PGs, but these dudes didn’t just go over, they SMASHED their total

  • I think Smart sees similar success today and personally I’m personally gonna take some alt overs for his points total

  • Got this at 23.5 (-105) this morning, but still fine w/ at 24.5

 
BEAVER'S PLAYS

(PHI) Joel Embiid Ov 4.5 Assists (+105) | 1u Draftkings (Risky)

(MIN) Kyle Anderson Ov 15.5 Pts/Ast (-125) | 1u BET365

(BOS) Marcus Smart Ov 24.5 PRA (-112) | 1u Barstool

223 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All
bottom of page