NBA Props: Saturday 1/21

Back on the path of redemption and while it's been tough, we're showing no signs of quit

Got Three prop plays for NBA today

IF YOU DON'T WANT TO TAKE THE GAMBLE OF LOSING A UNIT, WOULD WAIT FOR THE INJURY NEWS AND STILL PLAY THIS AT 5.5

It’s pretty much all but certain that Harden sits out tonight as he was listed questionable w/ injury management, and then didn’t participate in shootarounds this afternoon
Usually if you’re questionable followed by inactivity in shootarounds, most sit that game out 90% of time. The line move from -3.5 to a pick em reflects that
And the last time he was listed w/ injury management as questionable, he sat out and Embiid snagged 10 Assists!
And that provides a significant edge up on the competition for us as some books still have this at (+105). Meanwhile, smarter books like Fanduel already moved it to (-111)
W/o Harden on the court, Embiid is AVG an unholy 6.6 APG cashing his L9/10 and has failed to go under 6 assists in 8 straight in these scenarios
Meanwhile we’ve got a Kings team that allowed Sengun to grab 10 & 7, Jokic to grab 11 & 6 all in the past month
During this span they’ve allowed the 2nd most APG to opposing Centers
Meanwhile, in his L2 games against Sacramento w/o Harden he’s managed 6 assists in both games
I’m going to play it a bit ballsy and bet this now because I anticipate this moving to 5.5 and possibly being vigged to the over w/ Harden being announced out

I hate watching this dude play basketball but he’s ON FIRE right now
If you didn’t know, Kyle Anderson despite playing the 4, has been the main man responsible for setting up AST for Minnesota
He’s AVG 6.3 APG this month leading Minnesota and also AVG 9.4 POT AST per game, also leading Minnesota
He’s set to face a Rockets team that has struggled quite badly against opposing PF
They’ve allowed the 2nd most PPG, 3rd most 3PM, and 3rd most APG to the position over the last month and we’ve seen him have success against them before
He’s cashed his L3/4 vs Houston w/ 30+ mins (AVG 19.7) and his last miss came earlier this month @ Houston w/ just 4 FGA
Considering he’s AVG 8 FGA over his l10 and has had 9+ in 3 straight, I think we see him regress to his normal volume against Houston
And that’s great news because 77% of Anderson’s shots come at the rim or from short mid-range
And The Rockets defensive weakness this month? 28th in rim efficiency and 22nd in short mid-range efficiency
The icing on the cake? I mentioned Anderson is AVG 33 MPg over his L10 and w/ 30+ and w/o KAT on the floor, he’s cashed 3 straight (AVG 23.33) and his l5/7 (AVG 20.1)
W/ how fast-paced the Rockets are, I think this is yet another smash spot for Anderson here
Fine w/ betting this at 16.5

Jayson Tatum is out for today’s contest vs toronto and as a result comes a prime opportunity for Smart to see a boost in production
Through 5 games w/ Brown on the floor and Tatum off of it, Smart is 5-0 to this line (AVG 33.3) going back to last szn
One of those games w/ Tatum off the floor also had Brown on the sidelines, and smart dropped 42, conveniently against Toronto
So while I don’t expect another BOMB like that, I think he’s more than capable of cashing this line against Toronto
He’s done it 3 straight times against Toronto even w/ the duo of Brown/Tatum in two of those games (AVG 35)
And Toronto is struggling quite badly against opposing PG right now allowing the 8th most PPG, 5th highest FG%, 10th most 3PM, and 9th most APG
Some recent PGs against Toronto? D-Lo w/ 32, Holiday w/ 50, Brunson w/ 35, Murray w/ 41, Young w/ 38, Lamelo w/ 43 & 42, Lillard w/ 44
Now one could say they’ve faced a death row in terms of the talent of these PGs, but these dudes didn’t just go over, they SMASHED their total
I think Smart sees similar success today and personally I’m personally gonna take some alt overs for his points total
Got this at 23.5 (-105) this morning, but still fine w/ at 24.5

Kyle Kirms