top of page

NBA Props: Friday 1/6

Tough night on the courts. Not much we can do w/ a Jokic over when they're up 34 at half


Let's start the weekend right w/ one of my favorite plays on the board


Will add plays throughout the day, check back before tip!

 
ZACH LAVINE OV 29.5 PTS/REB/AST (-119) | 1U CAESARS
  • I’M NOT NORMALLY THE BIGGEST ZACH LAVINE GUY, BUT I LOVE THE SPOT FOR HIM TONIGHT COMING OFF A GAME WHERE HE HAD JUST 11 FGA AGAINST THE NETS

  • HE ALWAYS SEEMS TO SHOW UP AGAINST THE 76ERS CASHING HIS L12/13 GAMES AGAINST THEM (AVG 35.9) AND HE MISSED FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2017 AGAINST THEM EARLIER THIS SZN. THE ODDS OF IT HAPPENING TWICE I THINK ARE QUITE UNLIKELY

  • MEANWHILE, WE GOT LAVINE AVERAGING 36+ MPG OVER HIS L9 AND W/ 34+ MINS THE GUY IS 19-4 TO THE OVER (AVG 33.7)

  • ON THE ROAD HE IS 11-2 AND THAT AVG JUMPS TO 34.6

  • PHILLY OVER THE L2W IS ALLOWING THE 8TH MOST PPG, 2ND MOST 3PM, AND 6TH MOST RBG TO SG

  • AND W/ CARUSO MOST LIKELY OUT TONIGHT W/ AN ANKLE SPRAIN THAT SHOULD OPEN UP MORE AST CHANCES FOR LAVINE

  • WHAT I LIKE ABOUT LAVINE IS HE IS NOT TOO RELIANT ON ANY OF HIS SHOTS AND I THINK HE CAN BURN PHILLY OUTSIDE, AND IN THE PAINT W/ HARRELL/TUCKER DISTRACTED BY VUC

  • I WOULD PLAY THIS TO 30.5 FOR 1 UNIT, 31.5 FOR .75U

 
MYLES TURNER OV 25.5 PRA (-115) | 1U BET365
  • MYLES TURNER IS BACK AT HOME AND I THINK HE’S A GREAT VALUE IN THIS GAME

  • YOU MAY LOOK AT HIS LAST 10 GAMES AND SAY WHY ON EARTH DO YOU THINK THAT

  • BUT WE NEED SOME CONTEXT. TURNER HAD A WEIRD STRETCH OF 4 GAMES WHERE HE PLAYED 25 OR LESS MINUTES AND I THINK IT’S THROWN HIS LINE OFF, WHICH IS GREAT FOR US

  • OVER HIS L4 GAMES HE IS AVG 34.5 MINS PER GAME FAILING TO GO UNDER 30 ONCE

  • AND W/ 30+ MINUTES AT HOME, TURNER IS 9-3 TO THE OVER (AVG 30.7)

  • NOW HE FACES A PORTLAND TEAM HE HAD 35 AGAINST ON THE ROAD IN DECEMBER

  • CONSIDERING TURNER IS MUCH MORE PRODUCTIVE AT HOME THAT SAYS SOMETHING

  • AND PORTLAND’S MAIN STRUGGLE DEFENSIVELY THIS SZN HAS BEEN OPPOSING CENTERS

  • OVER THE L30 DAYS THEY’RE ALLOWING 8TH MOST PPG, 9TH MOST 3PM, 10TH MOST REB, AND 3RD MOST AST TO OPPOSING CENTERS

  • I THINK THE NUMBER IS NUMBER IS TWO PRA LOWERTHAN IT SHOULD BE, AND BECAUSE OF THAT I’M RIDING W/ TURNER

  • WOULD BET THIS TO 27.5

 
JULIUS RANDLE OV 10.5 REBOUNDS (-130) | 1U DRAFTKINGS
  • RANDLE IS SIMPLY INEVITABLE ON THE BOARDS AND I REFUSE TO BE A BYSTANDER

  • HE’S CASHED HIS L9/10 GAMES (AVG 12.9) AND NOW FACES A RAPTORS TEAM THAT HE’S SNAGGED 14 AND 13 AGAINST IN HIS L2 GAMES AGAINST THEM

  • AND W/ BARRETT STILL OUT, THIS DUDE IS FLATOUT A WAGON NOW CASHING HIS L7/8 IN THESE SPOTS (AVG 13.3)

  • AND OVER HIS L10 GAMES THE GUY IS AVG 40 MINS PER GAME!

  • W/ 38+ MINS ON THE ROAD RANDLE IS 8-0 TO THE LINE GOING BACK TO LAST SZN (AVG 14)

  • THE ICING ON THE CAKE? THE RAPTORS ARE ALLOWING THE MOST RBG TO OPPONENTS AT HOME OVER THEIR L10 GAMES

  • WE JUST SAW GIANNIS WITH 21, PORTIS WITH 12, JALEN SMITH W/ 11, ADAMS W/ 17, AND NONE OTHER THAN RANDLE W/ 13 AGAINST THE RAPS IN JUST THE L2 WEEKS

  • THINK HE KEEPS IT GOING HERE W/ THE MINS HE’S GIVEN

  • I WOULD PLAY TO THIS 11.5 AT .75U

 
RUSSELL WESTBROOK OVER 8.5 ASSISTS (+118) | 1U BARSTOOL
  • METRICALLY, WESTBROOK HAS BEEN ONE OF THE BEST PASSERS IN BASKETBALL THIS SEASON AND I EXPECT HIM TO FLEX THAT MUSCLE TONIGHT AGAINST THE HAWKS

  • A HAWKS TEAM THAT HE FUCKING OWNS IN THE DIMES DEPARTMENT

  • IN 3 GAMES AS A LAKER AGAINST THE HAWKS, WESTBROOK HAS 13, 12, AND 11 ASSISTS ON AN AVG OF 31 MPG

  • NOW HE IS WITHOUT AD, LONNIE WALKER, AND AUSTIN REAVES AND DUE TO THAT, I THINK IT’S QUITE REALISTIC WE SEE RUSS PLAY 30 MINUTES IN THIS GAME

  • I MEAN IN TWO SPOTS WHERE HE DIDN’T GET INJURED W/O THE DUO HE HAD 11 & 9 AST ON AN AVG OF 33 MINUTES

  • EVEN W/ JUST 28+, RUSS HAS CASHED HIS L11/15 GAMES (AVG 9.7)

  • MEANWHILE, ATLANTA IS ALLOWING THE 6TH MOST APG OVER THE L30 DAYS AND 7TH MOST OVER THE L2W TO OPPOSING PG

  • W/ THE HISTORY AND LIKELY INCREASED MINUTES, I GOTTA RIDE W/ DANGERUSS, IT'S WELL WORTH THE JUICE

  • THE BOOKS ARE BEING FUCKHEADS WITH THIS LINE AS FANDUEL STILL HAS IT AT 7.5 JUICED TO (-140) AND CAESARS/MGM/DK DON’T HAVE A LINE…

  • BUT I THINK THE CONSENSUS ENDS AT 8.5 AND STILL CARRIES TONS OF VALUE

 
DEANDRE AYTON OVER 9.5 REBOUNDS (-127) | 1U BARSTOOL
  • DEANDRE AYTON ALWAYS SHOWS UP ON THE GLASS AGAINST BAM AND I EXPECT HIM TO DO YET AGAIN TONIGHT

  • HE’S NEVER MISSED THE MARK THROUGH 7 GAMES AGAINST BAM (AVG 12) AND NOW THE HEAT ARE STRUGGLING A BIT TO KEEP BIG MEN OFF THE GLASS

  • ON THE SZN THEYRE THE 2ND BEST TEAM ON THE BOARDS VS CENTERS, BUT OVR THE L2W THEY’RE IN THE BOTTOM 12

  • AND IN FACT, THE L ⅚ CENTERS TO FACE THE HEAT HAVE CASHED THEIR OVER

  • AND THIS IS A PRETTY SOLID SPOT FOR AYTON AS W/ 1D REST HE’S CASHED HIS L11/15 GAMES (AVG 11)

  • W/ PAYNE, BOOKER, JOHNSON, AND CROWDER OUT, I’M EXPECTING AYTON TO PLAY HEAVIER MINUTES HERE AND W/ 30+ HE’S CASHED HIS L11/13 GAMES (AVG 13.1) AND 6-1 AT HOME (AVG 13.1)

  • THE TOTAL IN THIS GAME IS A LOWLY 214, WHICH IMPLIES THERE WILL BE MORE MISSED SHOTS THAN USUAL AND I THINK AYTON MAKES IT 8 STRAIGHT VS BAM

  • IF YOU WANNA SAVE SOME VIG AND BET HIS DOUBLE-DOUBLE AT (-115) ON DK, I DON’T HATE THAT, BUT JUST KNOW BAM HAS STILL BEEN QUITE STOUT DEFENSIVELY

  • ALSO IF THIS MOVED TO 10.5, THEN DOUBLE-DOUBLE WOULD BE THE BEST PIVOT

 
BEAVER'S PLAYS

ZACH LAVINE OV 29.5 PRA (-119) | 1U CAESARS

MYLES TURNER OV 25.5 PRA (-115) | 1U BET365

JULIUS RANDLE OV 10.5 REBOUNDS (-130) | 1U DRAFTKINGS

WESTBROOK OV 8.5 ASSISTS (+118) | 1U BARSTOOL

DEANDRE AYTON OV 9.5 REBOUNDS (-127) | 1U BARSTOOL

394 views3 comments

Recent Posts

See All
bottom of page