NBA Props: Friday 1/6

Tough night on the courts. Not much we can do w/ a Jokic over when they're up 34 at half

Let's start the weekend right w/ one of my favorite plays on the board

Will add plays throughout the day, check back before tip!

I’M NOT NORMALLY THE BIGGEST ZACH LAVINE GUY, BUT I LOVE THE SPOT FOR HIM TONIGHT COMING OFF A GAME WHERE HE HAD JUST 11 FGA AGAINST THE NETS
HE ALWAYS SEEMS TO SHOW UP AGAINST THE 76ERS CASHING HIS L12/13 GAMES AGAINST THEM (AVG 35.9) AND HE MISSED FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2017 AGAINST THEM EARLIER THIS SZN. THE ODDS OF IT HAPPENING TWICE I THINK ARE QUITE UNLIKELY
MEANWHILE, WE GOT LAVINE AVERAGING 36+ MPG OVER HIS L9 AND W/ 34+ MINS THE GUY IS 19-4 TO THE OVER (AVG 33.7)
ON THE ROAD HE IS 11-2 AND THAT AVG JUMPS TO 34.6
PHILLY OVER THE L2W IS ALLOWING THE 8TH MOST PPG, 2ND MOST 3PM, AND 6TH MOST RBG TO SG
AND W/ CARUSO MOST LIKELY OUT TONIGHT W/ AN ANKLE SPRAIN THAT SHOULD OPEN UP MORE AST CHANCES FOR LAVINE
WHAT I LIKE ABOUT LAVINE IS HE IS NOT TOO RELIANT ON ANY OF HIS SHOTS AND I THINK HE CAN BURN PHILLY OUTSIDE, AND IN THE PAINT W/ HARRELL/TUCKER DISTRACTED BY VUC
I WOULD PLAY THIS TO 30.5 FOR 1 UNIT, 31.5 FOR .75U

MYLES TURNER IS BACK AT HOME AND I THINK HE’S A GREAT VALUE IN THIS GAME
YOU MAY LOOK AT HIS LAST 10 GAMES AND SAY WHY ON EARTH DO YOU THINK THAT
BUT WE NEED SOME CONTEXT. TURNER HAD A WEIRD STRETCH OF 4 GAMES WHERE HE PLAYED 25 OR LESS MINUTES AND I THINK IT’S THROWN HIS LINE OFF, WHICH IS GREAT FOR US
OVER HIS L4 GAMES HE IS AVG 34.5 MINS PER GAME FAILING TO GO UNDER 30 ONCE
AND W/ 30+ MINUTES AT HOME, TURNER IS 9-3 TO THE OVER (AVG 30.7)
NOW HE FACES A PORTLAND TEAM HE HAD 35 AGAINST ON THE ROAD IN DECEMBER
CONSIDERING TURNER IS MUCH MORE PRODUCTIVE AT HOME THAT SAYS SOMETHING
AND PORTLAND’S MAIN STRUGGLE DEFENSIVELY THIS SZN HAS BEEN OPPOSING CENTERS
OVER THE L30 DAYS THEY’RE ALLOWING 8TH MOST PPG, 9TH MOST 3PM, 10TH MOST REB, AND 3RD MOST AST TO OPPOSING CENTERS
I THINK THE NUMBER IS NUMBER IS TWO PRA LOWERTHAN IT SHOULD BE, AND BECAUSE OF THAT I’M RIDING W/ TURNER
WOULD BET THIS TO 27.5

RANDLE IS SIMPLY INEVITABLE ON THE BOARDS AND I REFUSE TO BE A BYSTANDER
HE’S CASHED HIS L9/10 GAMES (AVG 12.9) AND NOW FACES A RAPTORS TEAM THAT HE’S SNAGGED 14 AND 13 AGAINST IN HIS L2 GAMES AGAINST THEM
AND W/ BARRETT STILL OUT, THIS DUDE IS FLATOUT A WAGON NOW CASHING HIS L7/8 IN THESE SPOTS (AVG 13.3)
AND OVER HIS L10 GAMES THE GUY IS AVG 40 MINS PER GAME!
W/ 38+ MINS ON THE ROAD RANDLE IS 8-0 TO THE LINE GOING BACK TO LAST SZN (AVG 14)
THE ICING ON THE CAKE? THE RAPTORS ARE ALLOWING THE MOST RBG TO OPPONENTS AT HOME OVER THEIR L10 GAMES
WE JUST SAW GIANNIS WITH 21, PORTIS WITH 12, JALEN SMITH W/ 11, ADAMS W/ 17, AND NONE OTHER THAN RANDLE W/ 13 AGAINST THE RAPS IN JUST THE L2 WEEKS
THINK HE KEEPS IT GOING HERE W/ THE MINS HE’S GIVEN
I WOULD PLAY TO THIS 11.5 AT .75U

METRICALLY, WESTBROOK HAS BEEN ONE OF THE BEST PASSERS IN BASKETBALL THIS SEASON AND I EXPECT HIM TO FLEX THAT MUSCLE TONIGHT AGAINST THE HAWKS
A HAWKS TEAM THAT HE FUCKING OWNS IN THE DIMES DEPARTMENT
IN 3 GAMES AS A LAKER AGAINST THE HAWKS, WESTBROOK HAS 13, 12, AND 11 ASSISTS ON AN AVG OF 31 MPG
NOW HE IS WITHOUT AD, LONNIE WALKER, AND AUSTIN REAVES AND DUE TO THAT, I THINK IT’S QUITE REALISTIC WE SEE RUSS PLAY 30 MINUTES IN THIS GAME
I MEAN IN TWO SPOTS WHERE HE DIDN’T GET INJURED W/O THE DUO HE HAD 11 & 9 AST ON AN AVG OF 33 MINUTES
EVEN W/ JUST 28+, RUSS HAS CASHED HIS L11/15 GAMES (AVG 9.7)
MEANWHILE, ATLANTA IS ALLOWING THE 6TH MOST APG OVER THE L30 DAYS AND 7TH MOST OVER THE L2W TO OPPOSING PG
W/ THE HISTORY AND LIKELY INCREASED MINUTES, I GOTTA RIDE W/ DANGERUSS, IT'S WELL WORTH THE JUICE
THE BOOKS ARE BEING FUCKHEADS WITH THIS LINE AS FANDUEL STILL HAS IT AT 7.5 JUICED TO (-140) AND CAESARS/MGM/DK DON’T HAVE A LINE…
BUT I THINK THE CONSENSUS ENDS AT 8.5 AND STILL CARRIES TONS OF VALUE

DEANDRE AYTON ALWAYS SHOWS UP ON THE GLASS AGAINST BAM AND I EXPECT HIM TO DO YET AGAIN TONIGHT
HE’S NEVER MISSED THE MARK THROUGH 7 GAMES AGAINST BAM (AVG 12) AND NOW THE HEAT ARE STRUGGLING A BIT TO KEEP BIG MEN OFF THE GLASS
ON THE SZN THEYRE THE 2ND BEST TEAM ON THE BOARDS VS CENTERS, BUT OVR THE L2W THEY’RE IN THE BOTTOM 12
AND IN FACT, THE L ⅚ CENTERS TO FACE THE HEAT HAVE CASHED THEIR OVER
AND THIS IS A PRETTY SOLID SPOT FOR AYTON AS W/ 1D REST HE’S CASHED HIS L11/15 GAMES (AVG 11)
W/ PAYNE, BOOKER, JOHNSON, AND CROWDER OUT, I’M EXPECTING AYTON TO PLAY HEAVIER MINUTES HERE AND W/ 30+ HE’S CASHED HIS L11/13 GAMES (AVG 13.1) AND 6-1 AT HOME (AVG 13.1)
THE TOTAL IN THIS GAME IS A LOWLY 214, WHICH IMPLIES THERE WILL BE MORE MISSED SHOTS THAN USUAL AND I THINK AYTON MAKES IT 8 STRAIGHT VS BAM
IF YOU WANNA SAVE SOME VIG AND BET HIS DOUBLE-DOUBLE AT (-115) ON DK, I DON’T HATE THAT, BUT JUST KNOW BAM HAS STILL BEEN QUITE STOUT DEFENSIVELY
ALSO IF THIS MOVED TO 10.5, THEN DOUBLE-DOUBLE WOULD BE THE BEST PIVOT

Kyle Kirms