Jan 20, 2023

NBA Props: Friday 1/20

Really disappointed w/ how yesterday went.

Pistons wasted prime ast chances from Ivey who barely went under, Trent can't shoot the 3 ball all of a sudden, and Embiid misses by the hook.

All part of the process, here's my Top 5 plays so far for this evening

ALL 5 PLAYS ARE ADDED

Julius Randle is what we call an Abosolute fucking problem on the glass and I refuse to be a bystander at this point
Even at this ridiculous line, He’s now cashed 6 straight (AVG 15.5)!!!
Now he faces Atlanta, a team he nabbed 17 rebounds against earlier in December
Mitch Robinson is out, and as a result Hartenstein steps in the starting 5 and Harteinstein is nowhere near as aggressive as Robinson is on the glass
Atlanta over the L30 days is allowing the Most RBG to opposing Centers and 6th most RBG to opposing PF
ATL is allowing the most RBG overall to opponents over their L10 games and think it continues here, will take my chances at the plus price, especially w/ Capela still likely on a minutes limit

Bam is on a tear lately cashing his L8/9 games (AVG 34.7) and is AVG 34+ mins during this span.
W/ 30+ mins Bam has now cashed his L8 straight overall (AVG 36.8) & 6 straight on the road (AVG 37.6)
He now faces a Dallas Defense that can’t stop opposing centers to save their lives allowing the 2nd most PPG, 5th highest fg%, and 3rd most RBG to opposing Centers over the L30 days
Bam has a great track record vs teams who struggle against centers SMASHING this line in 7 straight on the road vs Bottom 10 D vs C (AVG 37.8)
The Mavericks specifically struggle guarding the short-mid range sitting 25th in eff over the L30 days and Bam is 99th percentile in short-mid freq (47%)
Looking at how the rest of his teammates play, most heavily rely on the 3 ball w/ the exception of Butler, but butler is gonna have DFS following him all night
He also has already cashed his previous two against Dallas last szn (AVG 34) and w/ him playing the best basketball of his career, think he’s in a prime spot to make it 3 straight

Nobody wants to fade Luka I get it, but if you took his under in his L14 home games, you’d be 10-4 and up 5+ units at (-110) vig
Well now he faces the Heat and Spoelstra who simply has this guy’s number
Through 8 career games against Miami, Doncic has never hit this total (AVG 20.8 PPG) shooting 37.6% from the field and 31.1% from 3
Doncic averages his lowest PPG and 2nd lowest FG% against the Heat vs all 29 opponents throughout his career
And the Heat are a pretty tough draw as they allow the 4th fewest PPG to opposing PG and are 2nd in defensive efficiency on the road this szn
W/o Wood Doncic has gone under all 4 games this szn (AVG 22.7) and this allows the Heat to even further concentrate on him
W/ the low total at 217.5 and both teams being Bottom 7 in PACE, I’m goin under

Dejounte Murray is ON FIRE hitting 27, 28, and 30 points in his L3 games shooting 63% from the floor and 57.8% from 3
Now he faces a Knicks team that distinctly struggles against SG allowing the 6th most PPG, 8th highest FG%, 6th most 3PM, and 2nd Most RBG over the L30 days
Some recent SG vs the Knicks?
- Trent Jr. w/ 23, Ivey w/ 27, Hield w/ 31, Mathurin w/ 26, Trent Jr. again w/ 29, Josh Richardon w/ 23. All cashed their PR total
On top of that the Knicks are 28th in def transition off steals in pts/play and Murray is 97th percentile in pts/poss in transition amongst combo guards
We saw Murray nab 28 & 40 in his L2 full games against them and I think he cashes his 3rd straight full game against them

IDK if McConnel drank the secret serum, but this dude has played out of his mind w/o Haliburton on the court and I’ve officially taken notice
In these 45 games he’s AVG 26.4 MPG and converting it into an AVG of 15.8 Pts and 8 Ast per game during this span. On top of that the guy is shooting 65%!
A whopping 23.8 PA’s compared to starter Nembhard’s just 16.5 AVG during the same span
The last time I could find a McConnel line it was against Memphis and set at just 16.5 (-105) to the over, so if this is anywhere below 20, It’s a must play in my eyes
The Nuggets allow the Most PPG, Highest FG%, 4th most 3PM, and Most APG to PG on the szn and nothing has changed as of late
On top of that, the Nuggets bench is 28th in def RTG
Think Mcconnell continues to roll here regardless of a blowout

Kyle Kirms