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NBA Props: Friday 1/20

Really disappointed w/ how yesterday went.


Pistons wasted prime ast chances from Ivey who barely went under, Trent can't shoot the 3 ball all of a sudden, and Embiid misses by the hook.


All part of the process, here's my Top 5 plays so far for this evening


ALL 5 PLAYS ARE ADDED

 
Julius Randle Over 13.5 Rebounds (+110) | 1u Draftkings
  • Julius Randle is what we call an Abosolute fucking problem on the glass and I refuse to be a bystander at this point

  • Even at this ridiculous line, He’s now cashed 6 straight (AVG 15.5)!!!

  • Now he faces Atlanta, a team he nabbed 17 rebounds against earlier in December

  • Mitch Robinson is out, and as a result Hartenstein steps in the starting 5 and Harteinstein is nowhere near as aggressive as Robinson is on the glass

  • Atlanta over the L30 days is allowing the Most RBG to opposing Centers and 6th most RBG to opposing PF

  • ATL is allowing the most RBG overall to opponents over their L10 games and think it continues here, will take my chances at the plus price, especially w/ Capela still likely on a minutes limit

 
Bam Adebayo Ov 32.5 Pts+Rebs (-115) | 1u Pointsbet
  • Bam is on a tear lately cashing his L8/9 games (AVG 34.7) and is AVG 34+ mins during this span.

  • W/ 30+ mins Bam has now cashed his L8 straight overall (AVG 36.8) & 6 straight on the road (AVG 37.6)

  • He now faces a Dallas Defense that can’t stop opposing centers to save their lives allowing the 2nd most PPG, 5th highest fg%, and 3rd most RBG to opposing Centers over the L30 days

  • Bam has a great track record vs teams who struggle against centers SMASHING this line in 7 straight on the road vs Bottom 10 D vs C (AVG 37.8)

  • The Mavericks specifically struggle guarding the short-mid range sitting 25th in eff over the L30 days and Bam is 99th percentile in short-mid freq (47%)

  • Looking at how the rest of his teammates play, most heavily rely on the 3 ball w/ the exception of Butler, but butler is gonna have DFS following him all night

  • He also has already cashed his previous two against Dallas last szn (AVG 34) and w/ him playing the best basketball of his career, think he’s in a prime spot to make it 3 straight

 
Luka Doncic Under 34.5 Points (-115) | 1u Draftkings
  • Nobody wants to fade Luka I get it, but if you took his under in his L14 home games, you’d be 10-4 and up 5+ units at (-110) vig

  • Well now he faces the Heat and Spoelstra who simply has this guy’s number

  • Through 8 career games against Miami, Doncic has never hit this total (AVG 20.8 PPG) shooting 37.6% from the field and 31.1% from 3

  • Doncic averages his lowest PPG and 2nd lowest FG% against the Heat vs all 29 opponents throughout his career

  • And the Heat are a pretty tough draw as they allow the 4th fewest PPG to opposing PG and are 2nd in defensive efficiency on the road this szn

  • W/o Wood Doncic has gone under all 4 games this szn (AVG 22.7) and this allows the Heat to even further concentrate on him

  • W/ the low total at 217.5 and both teams being Bottom 7 in PACE, I’m goin under

 
Dejounte Murray Ov 25.5 Points/rebs (-113) | 1u Caesars
  • Dejounte Murray is ON FIRE hitting 27, 28, and 30 points in his L3 games shooting 63% from the floor and 57.8% from 3

  • Now he faces a Knicks team that distinctly struggles against SG allowing the 6th most PPG, 8th highest FG%, 6th most 3PM, and 2nd Most RBG over the L30 days

  • Some recent SG vs the Knicks?

  • Trent Jr. w/ 23, Ivey w/ 27, Hield w/ 31, Mathurin w/ 26, Trent Jr. again w/ 29, Josh Richardon w/ 23. All cashed their PR total

  • On top of that the Knicks are 28th in def transition off steals in pts/play and Murray is 97th percentile in pts/poss in transition amongst combo guards

  • We saw Murray nab 28 & 40 in his L2 full games against them and I think he cashes his 3rd straight full game against them

 
TJ McConnell Ov 18.5 P+A (-113) | 1u Fanduel
  • IDK if McConnel drank the secret serum, but this dude has played out of his mind w/o Haliburton on the court and I’ve officially taken notice

  • In these 45 games he’s AVG 26.4 MPG and converting it into an AVG of 15.8 Pts and 8 Ast per game during this span. On top of that the guy is shooting 65%!

  • A whopping 23.8 PA’s compared to starter Nembhard’s just 16.5 AVG during the same span

  • The last time I could find a McConnel line it was against Memphis and set at just 16.5 (-105) to the over, so if this is anywhere below 20, It’s a must play in my eyes

  • The Nuggets allow the Most PPG, Highest FG%, 4th most 3PM, and Most APG to PG on the szn and nothing has changed as of late

  • On top of that, the Nuggets bench is 28th in def RTG

  • Think Mcconnell continues to roll here regardless of a blowout

 
BEAVER'S PLAYS

Julius Randle Over 13.5 Rebounds (+110) | 1u Draftkings

Bam Adebayo Ov 32.5 Pts+Rebs (-115) | 1u Pointsbet

Luka Doncic Under 34.5 Points (-115) | 1u Draftkings

Dejounte Murray Ov 25.5 Points/rebs (-113) | 1u Caesars

TJ McConnell Ov 18.5 P+A (-113) | 1u Fanduel

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