MLB Saturday Picks 4/22
- AJ Bascone
- Apr 22, 2023
- 8 min read
MUCH needed greens yesterday. Went a bit dog-heavy yesterday and we're back going dog-heavy today. Let's replicate those results
F5 - First 5 Innings
TT - Team Total
ML - Moneyline
Double Result - To Lead after the F5 and Win the full game
To Record Win - Pitcher must go at least 5 Innings, leave the game with a lead, & have their pen close out the win. If the opposing team gains a lead after the starting pitcher leaves, the starting pitcher is no longer eligible to record a win
BLUE JAYS @ YANKEES 1:05 PM
Blue Jays Team Total Ov 3 (-114)
*FANDUEL*
If Manoah didn't look like a complete and utter pile of dog shit right now, I think the Jays would be our bet of the day. Everybody is on the Yanks & Cole is yet to have a hiccup. I think now is the perfect time for us to strike in a fade of Cole. So that is why we're rolling w/ their team total. Through Cole's last 5 starts against Toronto, the Jays are 4-0-1 to the team total over (AVG 5). Cole pitched 9 innings his last time out in a complete game shutout against Minnesota. We just faded German off a godly start vs Minnesota and guess what happened? 6 runs for Toronto. I know Cole is MUCH better than German, but at this beautiful number how do we pass this up?
NATIONALS @ TWINS 2:10 PM
PASS
Wanted to bet Lopez to Record a Win badly, but at (-130) that doesn't provide much value. Pass.
DODGERS @ CUBS 2:20 PM
Dodgers F5 ML (-120)
*FANDUEL*
Wesneski FINALLY had a proper start against Oakland where he excelled for 7 innings allowing just one earned run, 0 walks, and striking out 7 batters. While that is cool and all, let's not forget this guy got absolutely SHELLED in his first two starts allowing 12 hits, 10 Runs, 3 Home Runs, and 6 Walks thru 6 combined innings of work. After nearly being on the wrong side of a perfect game this afternoon, I think we see this Dodgers offense bring it w/ the series on the line. They've been much better vs RHP thus far and Wesneski has specifically struggled BADLY vs LHB. The key trio of Freeman, Muncy, & Outman are all LHB and should create hell for Wesneski. May is coming off by far his worst start of the year vs the Mets and think he is due to shine here. Most of the lineup has never seen him, and in his first 3 starts of the season, he posted a wildly impressive .181 wOBA, 0 HR/9, 0.76 WHIP, & .143 BABIP. Cubs bats are quietly slowing down vs RHP w/ the L5 they've faced combining for a 25.2 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 3.1 ERA. At the low price, I like the Dodgers to win the F5
ROCKIES @ PHILLIES 3:05 PM
ROCKIES ML (+160)
*BET365*
Borderline getting to the point where I declare this Philly team sucks. In Game 1 of the series they get shut down by Ryan Feltner and lose to Colorado. They follow it up by Nola getting rocked thru the first inning and managing just a 4-3 win against RHP Noah Davis & the Rockies Pen. Now in game 3 facing an LHP coming off a DREADFUL start & and an LHP on the bump for Colorado, there is way too much value to pass up w/ on Colorado. We all know the Rockies are a must better offense vs LHP and now face one w/ a career 5.93 ERA, .338 wOBA, 2 HR/9, & 5.31 FIP through 4 games as a Starting Pitcher. Even if the Rockies suck on the road, they are in a more advantageous spot. Freeland got DESTROYED by Pitt, but thru his first 3 starts posted an ELITE 0.96 ERA, .265 wOBA, 1 HR/9, 0.96 WHIP, & .212 BABIP. I think he can correct his course against a Phillies team that has allowed the 5 starting LHPs they've faced to combine for a 2.19 ERA. Add in a Rockies pen that has Bard back and has been improving lately against a Phillies pen that is straight-up garbage, and I think the Rockies can steal a win here.
MARLINS @ GUARDIANS 3:10 PM (GAME 1)
MARLINS @ GUARDIANS 6:25 PM (GAME 2)
PASS
We don't bet doubleheaders. Too much variability in terms of bullpen usage as well as lineups. Let's just enjoy the pitching duel between Bieber & Alcantara in game 2.
METS @ GIANTS 4:05 PM
METS ML (+110)
I don't care if Moe & Curly were on the mound for the Mets. As long as they're tossing w/ their left arm, I'm fading this Giants team. After Joey Lucchesi DISMANTLED San Fran in his first major league start back from Tommy John, the 7 LHP to face San Fran this szn own a combined 1.05 WHIP, 1.89 ERA, & 0.47 HR/9. Peterson has been wildly inconsistent thus far, but has been able to hold opponents to 2 or less runs in 2/4 starts. The last time he got shelled he bounced back for a 5.2 IP, 6H, 2ER, 6K performance against San Diego. In his only prev trip to San Fran in May of last year, he went 6 innings allowing just 3H, 2ER, 1HR, 1BB, and striking out 6 batters on his way to recording a win. Like the buy-low spot for him. Webb is definitely better than he's shown thus far but at a point, we have to accept reality. The guy has allowed 4+ runs in 4 straight starts. And that's a nightmare when facing a Mets team that has been SMACKING RHP. The L8 RHP to face New York own a combined 1.61 WHIP, 7.49 ERA, & 1.8 HR/9. If they're gonna keep undervaluing the Mets we have to bet on them, especially w/ a HUGE bullpen advantage.
WHITE SOX @ RAYS 4:05 PM
White Sox F5 ML (+160)
*BARSTOOL*
In my eyes, these two aces are evenly matched. Yet we are catching INSANE value on the other side w/ Chicago. Thru 2 starts vs Tampa in 2023, Cease owned a 1-0 record, 0.87 ERA, .095 OBA & 30.9 K%. The last time Cease faced them he walked 7 batters and still allowed 0 earned runs. I think his command couldn't be much worse than his previous start against them. The Rays have LIT UP opposing RHP, but look at the list of RHP the Rays have faced so far... Kopech, Stoudt, Greene, Manoah, Berrios, Kluber, Whitlock, Pivetta, Kaprielian, Fuji, Kuhl, Williams, & Tunrbull. One could argue Manoah & Greene were the only real threats. Manoah struggled greatly, but he has against nearly everybody thus far. Greene got hurt after the 3rd inning, but held them scoreless through 3. I think their bats against LHP are godly, but against RHP are due for a ton of regression. We know from the past few years the Sox are much better vs LHP and if Mcclanahan shows a crack in the armor, I think Chicago can capitalize. At this insane price I gotta play it.
REDS @ PIRATES 6:35 PM
PASS
Fuck the Reds. Rich Hill is a pile of ass, I don't care what his last two starts looked like. Pass
TIGERS @ ORIOLES 7:05 PM
PASS
The last time Wentz faced this Orioles lineup he DEALT and is now gleaming w/ confidence after his best start of the year vs San Fran. I know backing the Orioles against LHP is usually a must, but ultimately this is too high a price to pay on a lineup that hasn't impressed lately and Kyle Gibson's mids self.
ATHLETICS @ RANGERS 7:05 PM
PASS
I don't trust Fuji's command or his bullpen enough to back the A's. While at the same time, I can't find a way to catch value on Texas. Even the double result is (-125). Would rather pass than force bad value.
RED SOX @ BREWERS 7:10 PM
Brewers ML (-124)
Wade Miley w/ the exception of one bad start against Arizona has looked EXCEPTIONAL thus far allowing 0 runs, and 0 walks thru his 13 other innings of work. And going back to 2022, Miley owns a 1.8 ERA, .202 wOBA, 0.3 HR/9, 0.77 WHIP, & .205 BABIP thru 6 home starts. THAT IS INSANE. Add in that Boston is more LHB-heavy than most teams and that Miley is better against LHB, and I think he COOKS today. Boston may sit Top 10 vs LHP right now, but isolate that thru the F5 and they're in the bottom half of the league. Whitlock is pitching for Boston and I HATE the spot for him. As a career starter on the road, Whitlock owns a 5.68 ERA, .384 wOBA, 2.4 HR/9, 1.53 WHIP, .360 BABIP, and 5.01 FIP thru 5 road starts. Milwaukee has hit RHP well all season sitting Top 10 in most categories and I like the bounce-back spot after mustering up just 3 runs thru their first game off a 10-game road stand. Add in a far superior bullpen for Milwaukee that's key guys are rested and Boston's horrendous defense and I think there's EXCELLENT value here
ASTROS @ BRAVES 7:20 PM
PASS
Love me some Framber, but don't fancy the idea of fading the Braves against a LHP right now. Would rather sit back and wait on this one, and play the spot tomorrow. Pass
PADRES @ DIAMONDBACKS 9:40 PM
D-Backs ML (+135)
*DRAFTKINGS*
If you haven't watched the Snakes play baseball at home yet, please do. This offense is INSANE and can generate runs at will w/ their speed. And those bats really shine at home where they're ranking Top 5 in nearly every major category. Musgrove is AWESOME and last year pitched better vs LHB than RHB... but it's his first start coming off his injury. W/ the exception of a RIDICULOUS start against the Mets in the NLDS, we saw Musgrove slump a bit towards the back end of the year. We may be catching him in a vulnerable spot here. And it's not exactly like the D-Backs will have a scrub on the mound today. Despite some poor expected numbers, we can't ignore that Merill Kelly is posting a 2.53 ERA, 0.42 HR/9, & .264 BABIP this season. The main issue has been walks, but if he can get that command under control, I think he can have success against San Diego. Especially because he's DOMINATED against them in the past. In his L10 starts against the Padres, Kelly is 7-1 w/ an ELITE 1.51 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 20 K-BB%. I Know the D-Backs pen isn't great, but I think they're at least better than they've shown and the Padres bats, despite all the talent in the world, have proven they can go flat at any moment. Love the Snakes
ROYALS @ ANGELS 9:07 PM
ANGELS F5 -.5 (-120)
*BETMGM*
This is a pure fade of Greinke on the road. Going back to last season, The Royals are 5-10 to the F5 Runline in Greinke's road starts. During this span, he's posted a poor 5.33 ERA, .365 wOBA, 1.8 HR/9, 1.5 WHIP, .309 BABIP, & 5.36 FIP. Against an Angels lineup that he owns a career .853 OPS against, I think that he gets hit up for a 3rd straight start. On the other side is Tyler Anderson who is DUE for a good outing. He just GOT ROCKED in two straight starts, but now gets to return home to play the lowly royals who own a PUTRID 48 WRC+ vs LHP, 2nd worst in the MLB. He owns an impressive .621 OPS, .245 OBA, and 19.4 K-BB% against this current KC lineup. Even if Anderson gets hit up for 2 runs, I have faith the Angels can still cover as they have provided him w/ a TON of run support thus far. In Anderson's 3 starts, the Angels have scored 6, 6, and 6 runs thru the F5. Despite winning, the Angels bats were a bit dead yesterday, and I like this as a spot for them to wake up against a truly poor road starter.
CARDINALS @ MARINERS 10:10 PM
PASS
Cardinals have good numbers against Castillo... but does that even matter? Take out the MadBum start and this team is wildly underwhelming. They can't hit opposing RHP to save their lives. Would rather pass than lay the juice w/ Seattle. Pass.
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Aj I don’t Really know your record but I got to give you a major salute for keep bringing me coin with bet of the days I only took a L so far with Rockies first 5 this week or last I forgot major salute my g thank you .... I’m shocked you didn’t take my yanks today with cole but still majorrrrr salute