There's only 1 VIP pick in tonight's games but we do have a few bets... let's dive in.
TWINS @ YANKEES
WE HAVE A DISAGREEMENT HERE!
TWINS +1.5 (+120) - SAUCE
This isn't a VIP pick for a reason... Toast wants to lay the 1.5 with the Yankees and I just can't co-sign on that... in fact I think the value is on the Minnesota side.
First let's look at John Gant... who's gonna be starting for Minnesota. Look at his game logs since joining the Twins.
Look at those strikeout numbers! Gant is striking people out at a very high rate.. 6.50 K/BB ratio. Why is that important in this matchup? Cuz in the last month... the Yankees have struck 274 times... which is the 2nd highest in the MLB... 2nd only to the Cubs.
I think John Gant is going to put together a decent quality start here... his first start with the Twins... looking to secure a spot in that rotation. Jamison Taillon's been good as hell also which is why I think F5 U5.5 in this game is a great bet.
YANKEES -1.5 (-140) - TOAST
Man it is hard to fade either one of these teams right now . Couple key stats for me. Yankees the last 2 seasons at home when they allow 2 runs or less the previous game they are 23-5. Twins on the road after a game this season when they score 8 or more runs, they are just 1-8 this season. YANKEES -1.5
REDS -1.5 (-120) - SAUCE
Gotta take the Reds run line with Castillo pitching... Marlins on the road. Zach Thompson is 0-3 on the road.. and his road ERA is much higher than his ERA at home. Castillo off to a rough start in August but at home against a Marlins lineup is the perfect spot for him to get back on track.
I think Toast may like the Marlins in this one... not sure he was waiting to see lines... doesn't matter I'm betting Reds... it's not a VIP play.
CARDINALS +1.5 (+100)
CARDINALS ML (+165)
Yes... I'm betting on a Jon Lester win here... which upsets me deeply.... but as loaded as the Brewers are and as good as they've been... they haven't hit lefties very well at all! I really like the price here... I can see this being a pretty low scoring game... I think Lester's got a little burst of energy thanks to the new scenery. GIMME STL.
Look I get it is is John Lester. They line is moving and the book seem to like the cards here. This whole series has been close. The Brew scored a few in extras last night to win easy.
I have said over and over I dont like Woodruff, I dont see the talent that others do. I think he plays down to competition. In the last 10 games he has started the Brew only won 4 of those games. Cards are above 500 against right handers at home.
Again i get it is Lester, but we did cash with him last time out. he is a Vet, lets see if we can get 5 innings out of him and let the bullpen work after that.
METS +1.5 (-120)
METS ML (+160)
Don't follow me on this one... There aren't many analytics to back a Mets bet... I just have this feeling. As horrible as the Mets have been these past 3 weeks... I still feel their a live player in that division race... and I think that extra inning win give the Mets the burst of confidence they needed.