MLB Free Plays Sunday Afternoon 7/10

It's been a rough week folks, I am not one to shy away from reality. But this week has been so unpredictable it's almost as if the entire week has been one big week of Sunday baseball. So what if I told you that maybe this Sunday is actually... normal?


Let's place some bets and bounce back

 

ANGELS @ ORIOLES 12:05 PM

 

TOAST SAYS

Angels / Orioles F5 under 4.5 (-105)

Both of these pitchers have been solid. Jose Suarez got the start for the Angels, and he has been pretty consistent, going about 4 innings and giving up a couple runs. He gets into trouble with walks, but the Orioles really do not draw walks. Austin Voth a short starter, and he has also been good the last month, and is coming off his worst performance. None of the games in this series have been high scoring, I don't expect today to be any different.

 

NATIONALS @ BRAVES 1:35 PM

 

TOAST SAYS

Nationals/Braves Ov 9.5 (-120)

Just gotta keep playing the over then these teams play. 8 of the last 10 have got over between the two. Today we got Paolo Espino for the Nats who has been hit hard his last 2 starts, the Braves have got 5 on him the last 2 times they have seen him. Ian Anderson on the bump for the Braves, who gave up 4 to the Nats earlier this year. Anderson looked good his last start, but had not looked good for a month or so prior to that.

 

RAYS @ REDS 1:40 PM

 

TOAST SAYS

Rays / Reds F5 under 4.5 (-105)

I mean Jesus, back to back nights the Reds beat the rays in walk off fashion. The Rays will be without Franco, he got hurt last night. Rays sending out BAZ who is just a young stud. Besides his first start of the year, he has been pretty much lights out, only giving up a run a start. Nick Lodolo getting the start for the Reds. He has been good and getting a lot of strikeouts his last couple starts. I think both offenses struggle like they have been this whole series.

 

PIRATES @ BREWERS 2:10 PM

 

TOAST SAYS

PASS

Jose Quintana starting for the Pirates. His last 3 starts, 17 IP only 4 runs. He has decent history against the Brewers, but the starts against them on the road are much worse. Eric Lauer is off to a great start, but in his previous four starts he has given up: 3,5,4,8 earned runs. Lauer has really great numbers against the Pirates both home and away.


-The games between these two have been wildly unpredictable, would rather keep my change in my pocket for this one

 

TIGERS @ WHITE SOX 2:10 PM

 

BEAVER SAYS

Tigers +1.5 (-125)

Tigers ML (+166)

Hutchison just faced White Sox at home on 6/14 and had a decent start against them. Against the current White Sox lineup, he owns a .306 OBP, .625 OPS. He's also been much better on the road over his lat 2 seasons and the White Sox bats are as inconsistent as they come, and worse vs RHP.


Meanwhile, Kopech has quite frankly looked awful lately posting a 6.86 ERA, .936 OPS, 3.0 HR/9, .400 WOBA, 1.62 WHIP in his L4 starts. DET doesn't have the best batting numbers against him, but the .708 OPS despite a .133 oba, shows me when they are hitting him, they're hitting him hard. The bats have been picking up, I like a revenge spot for them here.


At a huge plus price, w/ 75% of the bets on CHW and 54% of the money on the Tigers, on top of line movement in the way of Det, it's hard to pass up on the value here. GEAUX TIGA GEAUX

 

GUARDIANS @ ROYALS 2:10 PM

 

TOAST SAYS

GUARDIANS ML (-120)

Cleveland smashed the Royals 13-1 starting Zach Plesac. He may not have many wins, but over his last 4 starts, he has 24 IP and only 4 ER. He also has great history pitching against KC, also like this year a lot of no decisions. Last 2 starts against KC just under 12 innings and 1 ER. Zack Greinke on the hill for the Royals. He got rocked his last time out against the Astros. He has had 2 good starts out of his last 7. I know Cleveland has not been great, but the Royals bats are slowing down, while Cleveland needs to make up some games before the All-Star game.


BEAVER SAYS

CLE/KC F5 UN 5 (-120)

This is a heinous overreaction to the Guardians finally scoring yesterday. They tee'd off on a guy who not only sucks at home, but vs LHB, and just got added to the IL for a shoulder issue. I find it hard to believe that they go out and body Greinke, a guy that's been lights out at home and during day starts. He owns an INSANE .444 ops vs this current lineup.


Meanwhile, KC seems to have blown their load in the HOU series following an offensive explosion w/ just 1 Run thru 13 IP against Civale and Mckenzie. Not only is Plesac hot right now and dominant in road day starts, but the guy owns KC. Thru 2 starts against them this year he's pitched 11.2 IP allowing 1 ER, 8H, and 0BB. In his L10 starts against them he is 6-0 w/ a 2.09 ERA, and 0.93 WHIP.


I see this being 2-1 thru the F5, I'll take my chances here at a very high number.

 

MARLINS @ METS 1:40 PM

 

TOAST SAYS

Miami F5 -.5 (+115)

Marlins sending out Sandy to the bump. Cy young front runner has already faced the Mets twice this year. Sandy pitches much better against the Mets in New York than he does in Miami, almost 2 runs a game better. Taijuan Walker on the mound for the Mets, and he has been really solid for them. He is coming off a game where he had 9 Ks in a win over the Reds. I gotta take the Fish here. They have seen Walker 2 times already, and he is not anywhere close to the talent level of Sandy.

 

PHILLIES @ CARDINALS 2:15 PM

 

TOAST SAYS

Cardinals ML(-112)

I feel stupid as I type this, but I feel like the Cardinals are the right side here today. Despite the bats not coming to work for the last week or so, the cardinals still rank high in many offensive stats we use to cap games. One being WAR which tracks everything, Cards are still 7th in MLB on the year, and the Phillies only rank better in the last 7 days when you compare the bats. The Phillies are starting a bullpen guy named Nick Nelson, who has control issues and I mean if there was a guy for the Cards to score some runs on it would be this guy. Andre Pallante got rocked his last start, but before that he has been pretty solid, someone I do not mind having my money on.

 

TWINS @ RANGERS 2:35 PM

 

TOAST SAYS

PASS

This series has been WILD thus far, and while we cashed both the F% and the full game w/ the Rangers yesterday, I felt we got a little lucky. Bundy has been pitching like a stud lately, but he could return to the form we all know at any moment. While Dunning has been shaky, but is much better at home.


Hard to get a read on this one, I'll just pass.

 

MLB EARLY FREE PLAYS

JULY 10

 

Angels / Orioles F5 under 4.5 (-105)

Nationals/Braves Ov 9.5 (-120)

Rays / Reds F5 under 4.5 (-105)

Tigers +1.5 (-125)

Tigers ML (+166)

GUARDIANS ML (-120)

Guardians/Royals F5 Under 5 (-120)

Miami F5 -.5 (+115)

Cardinals ML(-112)


 

"THE VENUS & SERENA"

TIGERS +1.5

MARLINS F5 ML

GUARDIANS ML

(+483)


 

BEAVER'S K PROP OF THE DAY


SHANE BAZ OV 6.5 K'S (+122)

476 views1 comment

Recent Posts

See All