MLB Free Plays 4th of July
We did the live show as well. Here are the notes we have for the day, we well as our picks
:RANGERS VS ORIOLES
(TEX) DANE DUNNING RHP
-OUTSTANDING NUMBERS VS BAL LINEUP: .050 OBA, .300 OBP, .425 OPS, 23.1 K%
-2 STARTS VS BALTIMORE LAST YEAR: 1.69 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 23.3 K%
-SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE ON THE RD: 5.58 ERA, .386 OBP, .819 OPS, .362 WOBA, 0.89 HR/9, 16.4 K%, 10.1 BB%, 1.71 WHIP, .351 BABIP
-5/9 OF BAL LINEUP TO BE LHB
-ON THE ROAD VS LHB IS HIS WORST SPOT: .423 OBP, .929 OPS, .405 WOBA, 1.4 HR/9, 17.5 K%, 12.4 BB%, 1.97 WHIP, .371 BABIP
(BAL) DEAN KREMER RHP
-ROUGH FIRST START, BUT HAS BEEN QUITE DAMN SOLID SINCE
-2-0, 0.38 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 17.3 K%
-6/9 OF TEX LINEUP ARE LHB; SLIGHTLY BETTER VS LHB
-.271 OBP, .566 OPS, .256 WOBA, 0.68 HR/9, 22.9 K%, 8.3 BB%, 0.98 WHIP
-TEX VS RHP (L2W): 11TH OBP, 9TH OPS, WOBA, 8TH WRC+, 14TH K%, 20TH BB%
Beaver :ORIOLES F5 (-115) | .75U
Sauce: ORIOLES F5 ML (-110)
- Rangers are 0-8 in the last 8 games that Dane Dunning starts... even though he hasn't pitched that bad.
- Dane Dunning is good at home and at night... this is a day game on the road.
- Dean Kremer 3 straight starts without letting up a single run... 18 2/3 innings pitched.
- Texas on game 7 of a 9 game road trip... 3rd city in 6 days... fatigue could be settin in a little.
- Rangers bullpen has been lights out... and even though Baltimore's bullpen has been pretty good also... I feel more comfortable just sticking to the F5.
- Baltimore is 8-2 in their last 10 on the F5 run line.
Toast likes Rangers ML
GUARDIANS VS TIGERS
(CLE) ZACH PLESAC RHP
-VS CURRENT DET LINEUP: .253 OBP, .585 OPS, 22.5 K%
-THRU 6 CAREER STARTS VS DETROIT 4-1 W/ 1.91 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 24.7 K%
-HAS LOOKED QUITE GOOD OVER HIS L6 STARTS: 1-1, 2.00 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 20.3 K%
-WORSE ON THE ROAD: HIGHER ERA ON THE ROAD, BUT BETTER UNDERLYING NUMBERS, BARELY DIFFERENT
-HAS BEEN A BEAST DURING THE DAY ON THE ROAD: 1.53 ERA, .197 OBP, .467 OPS, .207 WOBA, 25.8 K%, 3BB%, 1 HR/9, 0.68 WHIP, .182 BABIP
-DET VS RHP (L2W): 13TH OBP, 22ND OPS, 21ST WOBA, 20TH WRC+, 11TH K%, 12TH BB%
(DET) GARRETT HILL LHP
-YET ANOTHER ROOKIE STARTER FOR DET MAKING HIS DEBUT
BEAVER: -DET F5 TT UN 1.5 (+110) | .5U
CLE F5 -0/5 (+105) | .5U
SAUCE: TIGERS ML (+120)
UNDER 8.5 (-110)
- Tigers win 1 of these 2 games... so if they win the first I won't bet the 2nd. If they lose the 1st I'll bet em again in the 2nd.
- Cleveland coming off big upset win over the Yanks... but still don't trust those bats.
- in the past month... these are the 26th and 29th best lineups as far as OPS goes.. so even though there's some shaky starting pitching... I'm probably still gonna ride the under in both games.
Toast likes Cleveland F5 RL
RAYS VS BLUE JAYS
(TBR) MOST LIKELY A BULLPEN DAY
(BOS) AUSTIN DAVIS RHP
-CONSIDERING DAVIS HAS GONE A MAX OF 3 IP, I’M GONNA ASSUME THIS IS A BULLPEN DAY AS WELL
SAUCE: RAYS ML (+115)
RAYS F5 ML (+106)
- Michael Wacha is scratched. Austin Davis pitching for Boston
- Red Sox coming home from a 9 game 3 city road trip... they win an extra inning game in the 11th last night.. this is such a flat spot.
- Both these teams smash lefties... boston is actually 1st in the MLB against left handed bats in the past two weeks. and we're looking at a lefty lefty starting pitcher matchup... but neither pitcher is gonna be on the mound for more than two innings anyway both of these teams are throwing bullpen days.- Now normally I would be like "yo bullpen day for Tampa doesn't scare me"... but in the past 30 days... the Red Sox bullpen has actually been better than the Rays bullpen.
ROYALS VS ODORIZZI
(TEX) JOHNATHAN HEASLEY RHP
-VERY ON AND OFF, FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT HIM TO SURRENDER AT LEAST 3 RUNS HERE
-NO REAL DIFFERENCE IN HOME/AWAY SPLITS
-7/9 OF HOU LINEUP ARE RHB
-HAS PERFORMED SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER VS RHB
-.309 OBP, .634 OPS, .284 WOBA, 0.39 HR/9, 1.22 WHIP, .242 BABIP
-HOU VS RHP (L2W): 8TH OBP, 5TH OPS, WOBA, 2ND WRC+, 7TH K%, 8TH BB%
(HOU) JAKE ODORIZZI RHP
-SET TO MAKE HIS FIRST START SINCE MAY 16TH
-BEFORE GETTING INJURED, ODORIZZI GOT ROCKED IN HIS FIRST 3 STARTS, BUT PROCEEDED TO GO APE SHIT OVER HSI LAST 4
-3-0, 0.79 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 20.2 K%
-DOESN’T HAVE THE BEST NUMBERS VS KC: .389 OBP, .923 OPS, 14.8 K%
-BUT SALVY PEREZ IS OUT AND HE’S YET TO FACE WITT, MELENDEZ, ISBEL
-L6 STARTS VS ROYALS (2019/22): 1-2, 7.46 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 16.8 K%
-PREV START @ ROYALS: 5.1 IP, 8H, 4ER, 1HR, 2BB, 2K
-HAS BEEN A BEAST AT HOME THUS FAR: 2.19 ERA, .292 OBP, .487 OPS, .237 WOBA, 20.8 K%, 14.6 BB%, 1.14 WHIP, .226 BABIP
-KC VS RHP (L2W): 19TH OBP, 24TH OPS, WOBA, WRC+, 17TH K%, 11TH BB%
BEAVER: KC F5 +1.5 (-134) ON FD | 1U
SAUCE: ASTROS -1.5 (-115)
- Jake Odorizzi is pitching for Houston... his first start back from injury. Odorizzi is a solid pitcher but I'm always hesitant to back someone who's missed more than a month... dude's been out basically 7 weeks...
- so right off the bat... I could see KC grabbing a couple early runs... Royals offense hasn't necessarily been great in recent games
- Can't deny that Houston is just rolling... 14-3 in their last 17... 12-5 on the run line in those same 17 games.
- So as much as I'd love to fade Odorizzi returning from injury... I feel like the right play is to just lay the 1.5 here. Royals have won 3 of their last 4 games but they've only scored 12 total runs in those 4 games so it's not like they're crushing the ball.
Toast likes Royals +1.5
CUBS VS BREWERS
(CHC) JUSTIN STEELE LHP
-SOLID NUMBERS VS MIL LINEUP: .312 OBP, .584 OPS, 28.1 K%
-5 STARTS VS BREWERS SINCE 2021: 4.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 20.4 K%
-3 STARTS VS MIL THIS YEAR: 1-1, 3.46 ERa, 1.54 whip, 25.9 k%
-HAS GOTTEN ROCKED ON THE ROAD: 7.29 ERA, .353 OBP, .806 OPS, .352 WOBA, 27.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, 1.71 WHIP, .406 BABIP
-7/9 OF MIL LINEUP ARE RHB; WORST SPOT FOR STEELE
-.370 OBP, .899 OPS, .388 WOBA, 1.88 HR/9, 20.5 K%, 1.88 WHIP, .404 BABIP
-MIL VS LHP (L3W): 3RD OBP, 4TH OPS, 3RD WOBA, WRC+, 8TH K%, 4TH BB%
(MIL) ERIC LAUER LHP
-DECENT NUMBERS VS CUBS LINEUP: .301 OBP, .614 OPS, 38.8 K%
-3 STARTS VS CHC SINCE 2021: 1-0, 2.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 34.8 K%
-2 STARTS VS CUBS THIS YEAR: 2.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 36.2 K%
-MUCH BETTER AT HOME: .260 OBP, .627 OPS, .273 WOBA, 1.13 HR/9, 23.6 K%, 3.9 BB%, 1.00 WHIP, .264 BABIP
-SET TO FACE 9 RHB TODAY; HOME VS RHB IS HIS BEST SPOT
-.245 OBP, 0.622 OPS, .268 WOBA, 1.27 WHIP, 24.5 K%, 1.8 BB%, 0.92 WHIP, .263 BABIP
-CHC VS LHP (L3W): 6TH OBP, 8TH OPS, WOBA, 9TH WRC+, 18TH K%, 14TH BB%
BEAVER: BREWERS F5 TT OV 2.5 (+105) | .5U
BREWERS F5 (-105) | .5U
SAUCE: CUBS F5 ML (+122)
- Cubs have won 3 straight series now... against Boston, St. Louis and Cincinnati...
- Prop Beaver loves to talk about how Eric Lauer sucks on the road... but yo when's the last time this dude pitched well at home? May 20th against Washington? I think it's time we change that take from Eric Lauer sucks on the road to Eric Lauer sucks... period.
- Now when we're talking Justin Steele tho... this dude really does suck on the road. Let's taked into consideration that the dude's only thrown 21 innings on the road all season tho.
- I'm sticking with the F5 because the Cubs bullpen has been so rock bottom, piece of shit, toilet bowl, just overall disgusting numbers in the past month.
GIANTS VS D-BACKS
-CARLOS RODON LHP
-CLOSE TO ZERO EXPERIENCE VS THIS D-BACKS LINEUP
-HIGHER ERA, BUT BETTER UNDERLYING NUMBERS ON THE ROAD
-MAIN DIFFERENCE IS K% DROPS FROM 35.4% TO 26.1%
-SET TO FACE 8 RHB; SLIGHTLY WORSE VS RHB
-SOLID VS RHB ON THE RD THO: .252 OBP, .578 OPS, .253 WOBA, 0.49 ERA, 27.3 K%, 4.9 BB%, 0.98 WHIP, .284 BABIP
-IN ARIZONA TIME, THAT WILL BE A DAY START
-HAS BEEN LIGHTS OUT DURING THE DAY: 1.59 ERA, .275 OBP, .558 OPS, .257 WOBA, 0.5 HR/9, 37.1 K%, 12.9 BB%, 1.12 WHIP, .265 BABIP
-BUT ALL 3 OF THOSE WERE AT HOME
-ARI VS LHP (L3W): 15TH OBP, OPS, WOBA, 17TH WRC+, 7TH K%, 15TH BB%
-MADISON BUMGARNER LHP
-DECENT NUMBERS VS SF LINEUP: .260 OBP, .654 OPS, 15.6 K%
-3 STARTS VS SF SINCE 2020: 1-1, 3.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 14.9 K%
-SLIGHTLY BETTER AT HOME THUS FAR: .317 OBP, .763 OPS, .332 WOBA, 1.28 HR/9, 15.8 K%, 8.2 BB%, 1.37W HIP, .278 BABIP
-6/9 OF SF LINEUP TO BE RHB; NO REAL DIFFERENCE IN SPLITS
-HOME STARTS DURING THE DAY HAVE BEEN THE SWEET SPOT FOR MADBUM: 1.69 ERA, .299 OBP, .638 OPS, .283 WOBA, 0.0 HR/9, 21 K%, 7.5 BB%, 1.25 WHIP, .313 BABIP
SF VS LHP (L3W): 25TH OBP, OPS, WOBA, WRC+, 27TH K%, 11TH BB%
BEAVER: -F5 UNDER 4.5 (-130) | 1U
SAUCE: F5 UNDER 4 (-110)
- Giants just got swept by the White Sox... it was a 4 game sweep too... in all 4 games the Giants scored a combined 9 runs.
- Arizona's been scoring runs in the past 6 games.... 6, 11, 9, 0, 7, 11... 44 runs in the past 6 games. So right off the bat I wanna take the D-Backs as dogs here.
- but carlos rodon is pitching for the giants... and Arizona has been trashhh against lefties.
- but you know who else sucks against lefties?? the san francisco giants... and madison bumgarner is throwing for the d-backs and he's a lefty.
METS VS REDS
-TAIJUAN WALKER RHP
-CLOSE TO ZERO EXPERIENCE VS THIS REDS LINEUP
-SLIGHTLY WORSE ON THE ROAD: 3.3 ERA, .302 OBP, .647 OPS, .287 WOBA, 0.62 HR/9, 19 K%, 6.1 BB%, 1.24 WHIP, .305 BABIP
-7/9 OF CIN LINEUP ARE RHB; MUCH BETTER VS RHB
-.266 OBP, .560 OPS, .249 WOBA, 0.2 HR/9, 15.8 K%, 4 BB%, 1.04 WHIP, .277 BABIP
-HAS BEEN A FUCKING NUTCASE DURING DAY STARTS: 0.53 ERA, .222 OBP, .427 OPS, .195 WOBA, O HR/9, 23.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 0.79 WHIP, .230 BABIP
-CIN VS RHP (L2W): 24TH OBP, 28TH OPS, WOBA, 30TH WRC+, 29TH K%, 28TH BB%
-HUNTER GREENE RHP
-HASN’T SEEN METS, ROOKIE
-SLIGHTLY WORSE AT HOME: 5.87 ERA, .333 OBP, .842 OPS, .362 WOBA, 2.64 HR/9, 24.2 K%, 10.6 BB%, 1.4 WHIP, .263 BABIP
-SET TO FACE 5 LHB; MUCH BETTER VS LHB
-.301 OBP, .708 OPS, .312 WOBA, 1.72 HR/9, 30.8 K%, 12.2 BB%, 1.25 WHIP, .247 BABIP
-GOT DESTROYED IN HIS 2 HOME STARTS DURING THE DAY: 9.9 ERA, .426 OBP, 1.307 OPS, .535 WOBA, 5.4 HR/9, 19.1 K%, 8.5 BB%, 2.00 WHIP, .357 BABIP
-NYM VS RHP (L2W): 30TH OBP, OPS, WOBA, 27TH WRC+, 19TH K%, 29TH BB%
BEAVER: F5 UNDER 5 (-110) | .75U
Sauce and Toast like Mets -1.5
MARINERS VS PADRES
-CHRIS FLEXEN RHP
-PRETTY HEINOUS NUMBERS VS SDP LINEUP: .646 OBP, 1.417 OPS, 0 K% THRU 19 PA
-PREV START @ SAN DIEGO (2021): 1.2 IP, 10H, 8ER, 2HR, 1BB, 1K
-SLIGHTLY WORSE ON THE ROAD: 4.71 ERA, .350 OBP, .794 OPS, .348 WOBA, 1.29 HR/9, 14.4 K%, 10.5 BB%, 1.48 WHIP, .287 BABIP
-5/9 OF SDP LINEUP ARE LHB; HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER VS LHB
-VS LHB ON THE ROAD: .315 OBP, .715 OPS, .316 WOBA, 1.53 HR/9, 20.3 K%, 10.8 BB%, 1.3 WHIP, .250 BABIP
-SDP VS RHB (L2W): 21ST OBP, OPS, 22ND WOBA, 21ST WRC+, 15TH K%, 17TH BB%
-SEAN MANAEA LHP
-GREAT NUMBERS VS MARINERS: .213 OBP, .439 OPS, 32.9 K%
-L3 STARTS IN 2021 VS SEA: 2-1, 2.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 29.3 K%
-SLIGHTLY WORSE AT HOME THUS FAR: .307 WOBA, .296 OBP, .700 OPS, 1.49 HR/9, 21.6 K%, 9.8 BB%, 1.24 WHIP, .242 BABIP
-7/9 OF MARINERS LINEUP TO BE RHB; WORST SPOT AT HOME VS RHB
-.301 OBP, .743 OPS, .321 WOBA, 1.48 HR/9, 21.2 K%, 6.7 BB%, 1.27 WHIP, .282 BABIP
-SEA VS LHP (L3W): 18TH OBP, 21ST OPS, 22ND WOBA, 20TH WRC+, 24TH K%, 5TH BB%
BEAVER:-PADRES F5 TT OV 2.5 (+110) | .5U
SAUCE: MARINERS F5 +0.5 (+102)
MARINERS ML (+155)
- Huge flat spot for San Diego coming off the 4 game series against the rival Dodgers. And they get the miraculous 9th inning come back win yesterday...
- Sean Manaea is pitching for the Padres and he's obviously been solid all year... it's not that I think Seattle rocks Manaea... I just don't think the Padres lineup is gonna score any early runs.
- The F5 under 4.5 is at (-120)... and I strongly considered it for a while... but in the end I decided to get ballsy and take the dog straight up.
CARDINALS VS BRAVES
-DAKOTA HUDSON RHP
-GREAT NUMBERS VS ATL LINEUP: 21 AB, .181 OBP, .333 OPS, 18.1 K%
-HASN’T SEEN BRAVES SINCE 2019
-HASN’T LOOKED TOO HOT OVER HIS L4 STARTS: 2-2, 6.75 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 10.8 K%, 11.8 BB%
-SLIGHTLY WORSE ON THE ROAD: .354 OBP, .735 OPS, .328 WOBA, 0.87 HR/9, 13.1 BB%, 1.45 WHIP, .266 BABIP
-7/9 OF ATL LINEUP ARE RHB; WORST SPOT ON RD VS RHB
-.395 OBP, .874 OPS, .380 WOBA, 1.37 HR/9, 13.8 K5, 11.5 BB%, 1.68 WHIP, .328 BABIP
-WILL SAY, HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER AT NIGHT: 2.87 ERA, .310 OBP, .636 OPS, .286 WOBA, 17.4 K%, 10.3 BB%, 0.7 HR/9, 1.27 WHIP, .266 BABIP
-ATL VS RHP (L2W): 16TH OBP, 7TH OPS, WOBA, 9TH WRC+, 21ST K%, 27TH BB%
-KYLE WRIGHT RHP
-CLOSE TO ZERO EXPERIENCE VS CARDS
-VERY UP AND DOWN, BUT WHEN HE’S ON, HE’S ON
-DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ERA, BETTER AT HOME: .288 OBP, .579 OPS, .264 WOBA, 0.64 HR/9, 27.4 K%, 7.6 BB%, 1.05 WHIP, .279 BABIP
-5/9 OF STL LINEUP ARE LHB; SLIGHTLY BETTER VS LHB THUS FAR
-.288 OBP, .584 OPS, .266 WOBA, 0.4 HR/9, 26.1 K%, 10.3 BB%, 1.13 WHIP, .265 BABIP
-QUITE SOLID AT HOME AT NIGHT: .264 OBP, .497 OPS, .233 WOBA, 0.5 HR/9, 27.5 K%, 8.1 BB%, 0.94 WHIP, .242 BABIP
-STL VS RHP (L2W): 22ND OBP, 18TH OPS, WOBA, 19TH WRC+, 25TH K%, 22ND BB%
BEAVER: -WRIGHT OV 5.5 K’S (+128) | .5U
-BRAVES F5 RUNLINE -0.5 (-125) | 1U
SAUCE: UNDER 9.5 (-110)
- Kyle Wright was hot as hell for a stretch... everyone jumped on the Kyle Wright bandwagon... and yeah he did pitch really well against Philly last week.
- but the 3 starts before that?? he got smacked by the giants... smacked by the cubs... and he struggled against the pirates.
- Dakota Hudson has also struggled a little recently... especially on the road...
- both these lineups are in the top half of the league recently... both can hit right handed pitching.
- so why am i betting the under?? well cardinals coming off sunday night baseball... they looked awful last night. Braves returning from a road trip.
- also both of these teams have bullpens that have thrown well. so gimme the under.
TWINS VS WHITE SOX
-DYLAN BUNDY RHP
-EH NUMBERS VS WHITE SOX LINEUP: .313 OBP, .719 OPS, 23.7 K%
-2 STARTS VS CHW SINCE 2021: 1-0, 11IP, 1.00 WHIP, 22.7 K%
-SOLID OVER HIS L3 STARTS: 1-1, 1.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 13.9 K%
-HAS BEEN MUCH WORSE ON THE RD: 6.41 ERA, .345 OBP, .884 OPS, .375 WOBA, 1.6 HR/9, 18.1 K%, 4.5 BB5, 1.53 WHIP, .349 BABIP
-6/9 OF CHW LINEUP ARE RHB; SLIGHTLY BETTER VS RHB
-BUT ON THE ROAD VS RHB HAS BEEN HIS WORST SPOT SO FAR: .362 OBP, .983 OPS, .412 WOBA, 2.25 HR/9, 21.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 1.7 WHIP, .375 BABIP
-CHW VS RHP (L2W): 7TH OBP, 15TH OPS, 12TH WOBA, 11TH WRC+, 12TH K%, 23RD BB%
-JOHNNY CUETO RHP
-CLOSE TO ZERO EXPERIENCE VS TWINS LINEUP
-HAS BEEN WORSE AT HOME THUS FAR: 5.48 ERA, .323 OBP, .884 OPS, .341 WOBA, 1.57 HR/9, 18.2 K%, 1.39 WHIP, .310 BABIP
-4/9 OF MIN LINEUP LHB, 5/9 ARE RHB
-NOT MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE; SLIGHTLY WORSE VS RHB
-MIN VS RHP (L2W): 20TH OBP, 12TH OPS, 15TH WOBA, 14TH WRC+, 16TH K%, 24TH BB%
BEAVER: F5 OV 4.5 (-132) ON FD | .75U
SAUCE: TWINS F5 ML (+102)
- I'd love to back the white sox here trust me... I've cashed on the white sox 2 straight days... I believe they were underdogs both times too.
- I'd love to fade Dylan Bundy on the road... sounds lovely.. I'd be all over that.
- BUT... johnny cueto is pitching for the white sox and this man doesn't belong in major league baseball.
Toast like White Sox ML
BLUE JAYS VS ATHLETICS
-ALEK MANOAH RHP
-SOLID NUMBERS VS OAK LINEUP: 21 AB. .229 OBP, .629 OPS, 26 K%
-GOT ROCKED IN A START VS OAKLAND LAST YEAR, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT WHO DID THE DAMAGE, IT’S MATT CHAPMAN, JOSH HARRISON, STARLING MARTE, MATT OLSON, AND MARK CANHA. THEY’RE ALL GONE
-PREV START VS OAK THIS YEAR: 6IP, 4H, 2ER, 1HR, 2BB, 6K
-SLIGHTLY WORSE ON THE RD DESPITE LOWER ERA: .291 OBP, .635 OPS, .282 WOBA, 0.86 HR/9, 22.1 K%, 6.4 BB%, 1.13 WHIP, .276 BABIP
-6/9 OF OAK LINEUP ARE RHB; DOMINANT VS RHB
-ON THE ROAD VS RHB: .195 OBP, .445 OPS, .199 WOBA, 0.82 HR/9, 29.3 K%, 4.9 BB%, 0.68 WHIP, .175 BABIP
-OAK VS RHP AT HOME (L3W): 30TH OBP, OPS, WOBA, 29TH WRC+, 28TH K%, 29TH BB%
-COLE IRVIN LHP
-DOESN’T HAVE THE BEST NUMBERS VS TORONTO: .388 OBP, .950 OPS, 23.7 K%
-TWO STARTS VS BLUE JAYS LAST YEAR: 1-1, 6.97 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 26.2 K%
-HOME START WAS DAMN GOOD: 8IP, 3H, 1ER, 1BB, 9K
-SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AT HOME: .283 OBP, .535 OPS, .245 WOBA, 0.00 HR/9, 17.4 K%, 7.2 BB%, 1.11 WHIP, .272 BABIP
-SET TO FACE A TON OF RHB TODAY; BEST SPOT AT HOME VS RHB
-.279 OBP, ..532 OPS, .244 WOBA, 0 HR/9, 19.2 K%, 7.7 BB%, 1.09 WHIP, .267 BABIP
-TOR VS LHP (L3W): 11TH OBP, 7TH OPS, WOBA, WRC+, 5TH K%, 27TH BB%
BEAVER: F5 UN 3.5 (-102) | .5U
ALEK MANOAH TO RECORD A WIN (-115) | .5U
OAK F5 TT UN 0.5 (+140) |.5U
SAUCE: BLUE JAYS / DODGERS PARLAY (-112)
- blue jays coming off 3 straight losses... going to oakland the worst team in baseball with their ace on the mound.
- toronto hasn't been great against lefties and cole irvin isn't awful... but even if it takes till later in the game... it's only a matter of time before the blue jays put up a big number in one of these innings.
ROCKIES VS DODGERS
-KYLE FREELAND LHP
-HAS SEEN DODGERS TWICE AT HOME THUS FAR: 1-1, 7.45 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 23.9 K%
-DECENT NUMBERS VS DODGERS LINEUP: .247 OBP, .598 OPS, 19.7 K%
-L3 STARTS AT DODGERS STADIUM: 1-1, 2.84 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 27.1 K%
-SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ON THE ROAD: .308 OBP, .654 OPS, .293 WOBA, 0.53 HR/9, 19.2 K%, 7.5 BB%, 1.21 WHIP, .277 BABIP
-HAS BEEN BETTER AT NIGHT, AND ON THE RD AT NIGHT HAS BEEN LIGHTS OUT
-1.69 ERA, .281 OBP, .581 OPS, .264 WOBA, 0.4 HR/9, 13.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 1.08 WHIP, .259 BABIP
-4/9 OF LAD LINEUP ARE LHB; MUCH WORSE VS LHB
-VS LHB ON THE ROAD: .400 OBP, 1.000 OPS, .427 WOBA, 2.57 HR/9, 31.4 K%, 11.4 BB%, 1.86 WHIP, .412 BABIP
-LAD VS LHP (L3W): 14TH OBP, 18TH OPS, 17TH WOBA, 19TH WRC+, 29TH K%, 6TH BB%
-JULIO URIAS LHP
-EH NUMBERS VS ROCKIES: .338 OBP, .764 OPS, 19.5 K%
-L5 STARTS VS ROCKIES: 2-1, 1.6 WHIP, 16.2 K%
-NO REAL HOME/AWAY SPLITS, ALMOST IDENTICAL
-WORSE VS RHB: .283 OBP, .647 OPS, .286 WOBA, 1.03 HR/9, 20.6 K%, 7.7 BB%, 1.15 WHIP, .259 BABIP
-SLIGHTLY WORSE NUMBERS AT NIGHT: .266 OBP, .673 OPS, .290 WOBA, 1.3 HR/9, 24.6 K%, 4BB%, 1.05 WHIP, .281 BABIP
-COL VS LHP OVER THE L3W: 2ND OBP, 2ND OPS, WOBA, 5TH WRC+, 4TH K%, 8TH BB%
BEAVER: FREELAND +4 K’S/URIAS +4 HITS ALLOWED
ROCKIES F5 ML (+240)
Toast likes Rockies